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South Bristol Link Transport Economic Report May 2013
5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
South Bristol Link
Economic Report
May 2013
Notice
This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for North Somerset Council’s information and use in relation to the South Bristol Link.
Atkins Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents.
Document History
JOB NUMBER: 5103087 DOCUMENT REF: SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date
1 Draft LW GB TM GB 23/05/13
5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
Contents
Section Page
1. Introduction 3
Background 3
The Scheme 3
Purpose of this Report 3
Structure of this Report 3
2. Scheme and Cost 4
Scheme Specification 4
Zone 1: A370 Long Ashton Bypass to A38 Bridgewater Road 4
Zone 2: A38 to Queens Road 5
Zone 3: Queens Road to Hengrove Park 6
Investment Costs 7
Operating Costs and Commercial Viability 8
Maintenance and Construction Delay 8
3. Economic Appraisal Results 9
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) 9
Appendices
Appendix A – TEE TABLE 10
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1. Introduction
Background 1.1 Bristol City Council and North Somerset Council in partnership are delivering the South Bristol
Link (SBL), a major transport scheme to address current and future transport problems in the
south Bristol area.
The Scheme 1.2 The proposed development comprises the construction of a section of highway 4.5 kilometres in
length from the A370 Long Ashton bypass within North Somerset to the Hartcliffe (Cater Road)
Roundabout within the Bishopsworth area of South Bristol. This incorporates the minor
realignment of sections of existing highway at Highridge Green, King George’s Road and
Whitchurch Lane. The entire route is to be classed as an Urban All-Purpose Road (UAP) in
accordance with TA 79/99.
1.3 The route includes the construction of new junctions with the A370, Brookgate Road, A38,
Highridge Road, Queens Road and Hareclive Road. New bridges will be constructed to cross
Ashton Brook, Colliter’s Brook and to pass under the Bristol to Taunton Railway Line. The route
corridor will incorporate a bus-only link to connect with the Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (AVTM)
spur into the Long Ashton Park and Ride site, and dedicated bus lanes between the railway and
the new A38 roundabout junction. New bus stops and shelters, and a continuous shared
cycleway and footway will be provided along the route corridor. Associated proposals include
drainage facilities, landscaping and planting.
1.4 The route will form part of the West of England rapid transit network (Metro Bus) and will be used
by buses and other motorised vehicles. The route will link with the AVTM at the Long Ashton Park
and Ride site, and within the South Bristol section, once buses have reached the Hartcliffe
Roundabout, services will follow existing roads via Hengrove Way to Imperial Park and onwards to
Whitchurch Lane and Hengrove Park.
Purpose of this Report 1.5 The purpose of this report is to set out the economic case for the South Bristol Link, providing a
clear description and summary of the value for money of the scheme.
Structure of this Report 1.6 The remainder of this report is structured as follows:
Chapter 2 summarises the scheme and includes a breakdown of the revised estimated
cost of the scheme;
Chapter 3 sets out the scheme benefits and costs, focusing on the economic appraisal.
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2. Scheme and Cost 2.1 This chapter summarises the SBL scheme and provides a breakdown of the revised estimated
cost. Investment costs are presented in outturn prices, with annual operating and maintenance
costs shown in 2012 prices.
Scheme Specification 2.2 The proposed development comprises the construction of a section of highway 4.5 kilometres in
length from the A370 Long Ashton bypass within North Somerset to the Hartcliffe (Cater Road)
Roundabout within the Bishopsworth area of South Bristol. This incorporates the minor
realignment of sections of existing highway at Highridge Green, King Georges Road and
Whitchurch Lane. The entire route is to be classed as an Urban All-Purpose Road (UAP) in
accordance with TA 79/99. Figure 2.1 shows the proposed route alignment.
Figure 2–1 Proposed SBL Route
Zone 1: A370 Long Ashton Bypass to A38 Bridgewater Road
2.3 Zone 1 is a 2km section of the route which links Long Ashton to the A38 at Castle Farm via
Brookgate in Ashton Vale. As part of this route, the road will have to pass underneath the Bristol
to Exeter railway line and this will require the provision of a new underpass. Details are provided
below:
A new roundabout junction will be constructed on the A370 near Long Ashton. A dedicated
left turn lane will be provided in a southbound direction on the A370, allowing traffic to access
the SBL route without passing through the new roundabout junction.
From this roundabout, a single-carriageway, two-way, 40 mph, highway will run south-
eastwards for approximately 1.5km to meet the A38 (Bridgewater Road) at a new signalised
5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
roundabout junction. This alignment will follow a route defined in the North Somerset
Replacement Local Plan.
Between the A370 and the A38, a signal controlled junction at Brookgate will give access to
Ashton Vale.
A ‘bus only’ link will be provided between the Long Ashton P&R site (linking with the AVTM
Rapid Transit spur) and the new signalised junction at Brookgate. From the Brookgate
junction to the A38, nearside bus lanes will provide dedicated provision which is segregated
from general traffic in either direction. Both the new A38 Bridgewater Road and Brookgate
signalised junctions will include bus priority measures.
A new cycleway/footway will be provided on the eastern side of the carriageway between the
A370 (connecting to Festival Way cycle track) and Brookgate. This links to further provision
from Long Ashton Park and Ride to the A38. Controlled pedestrian / cycle crossing points are
integrated into the Brookgate traffic signals to link these two sections of shared cycleway /
footway. Signalised crossing points are also integrated into the proposed signalised junction
formed by the A38 and SBL.
Zone 2: A38 to Queens Road
2.4 Zone 2 is a 1.5km section of the route which links the A38 at Castle Farm to Queens Road in the
residential areas of Bishopsworth. Details are provided below:
From the new signalised roundabout junction formed with the A38, a new single carriageway,
two-way, 40mph carriageway will extend eastwards. In proximity to Highridge Farm, the
design speed will reduce to 30mph, as the carriageway enters the residential area to the
east. It will cross the northern extent of Highridge Common before connecting to King
Georges Road via a new four arm signalised junction formed with Highridge Road.
The existing alignment of Highridge Green, which currently connects to Highridge Road and
King George’s Avenue at its eastern extent, will be stopped up. The road will be realigned to
connect to the SBL via a new priority junction in proximity to Sandburrows Road. It will
include a dedicated right turn ghost island on SBL to stop blocking back on the carriageway.
The existing access to Highridge Cottage to the south of Highridge Green will be closed up
and a new access will be provided from the new SBL carriageway via a new three arm
priority junction.
King Georges Road will comprise a single carriageway with a 1.5m wide flush median with
contrasting surfacing colour. All existing trees are to be removed but will be replaced with
native small leaved lime cullivar. The existing residential accesses over the grass verge on
either side of the carriageway will be retained with verge parking formalised, however on-
street parking will be removed.
The SBL route connects with Queens Road / Grange Road to the east at a new signalised
four arm junction.
Bus priority will however be provided at the A38, Highridge Road and Queens Road traffic
signals.
A new shared footway / cycleway will be provided on the northern edge of the new
carriageway linking the A38 to King Georges Road. This will be connected to signalised
pedestrian / cyclist crossing points integrated into the new traffic signals at either end of this
section of the route;
Signalised crossing points will be provided on the northern arm of the A38 and western arm
of the SBL link at the Bridgewater Road junction.
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Signalised crossing points will be provided on all arms within the residential area at the
junction formed between the SBL and Highridge Road.
Existing footways on King Georges Road, set back from the carriageway behind the grass
verge will be retained. The footway on the northern side of the carriageway will be converted
to a 3m wide shared cycleway / footway. Five pedestrian refuge islands will be provided at
regular intervals on King Georges Road. These kerbed crossing points will be 2m wide.
Signalised crossing points will be provided for pedestrians and cyclists on all arms of the
SBL, Queens Road and Grange Road junction.
Zone 3: Queens Road to Hengrove Park
2.5 Zone 3 is a 3km section of the route which connects Queens Road in Bishopsworth to Hengrove
Park via Imperial Park. It will use both new and existing carriageway provision. Details are
provided below:
From the new four arm signalised junction formed with Queens Road / Grange Road, the
SBL will extend eastwards on a new single carriageway, two-way road subject to a 30mph
speed limit. This section of carriageway will utilise a reserved transport corridor (defined in
both the North Somerset Replacement Local Plan and the Bristol City Local Plan) to connect
to Hareclive Road via a new four arm signalised junction.
The new signalised junction will connect the new SBL link (western arm), the realigned
Whitchurch Lane (eastern arm); and Hareclive Road (northern and southern arm).
Whitchurch Lane currently runs west-to-east linking Bishopsworth Road/Church Road to
Hengrove Way. Hareclive Road connects from the south via a three arm priority junction. The
proposals will involve the provision of a new SBL link running east from the new signalised
SBL junction. This link then forms a further signalised junction with the existing Whitchurch
Lane alignment (adjacent to the Cater Business Park).
At the new four arm signalised junction formed with the SBL, turning movements will be
restricted as follows;
SBL Link (western arm): Ahead Only to Cater Road Roundabout,
Hareclive Road (northern arm): Ahead Only to Hareclive Road south,
Whitchurch Lane Link (eastern arm): Ahead Only to SBL Link; and,
Hareclive Road (southern arm): Ahead and Left Only to Hareclive Road north and
SBL.
At the new three arm signalised junction formed between Whitchurch Lane and the SBL new
link road, turning movements will also be restricted as follows;
SBL (western arm): Ahead only to Cater Road Roundabout,
Whitchurch Lane (northern arm): Left only towards Cater Road Roundabout,
SBL (eastern arm): Ahead and Right to SBL Link and Whitchurch Lane.
At the existing priority junction formed between Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane all
movements will continue to be permitted.
SBL provision for general traffic will terminate at the Cater Road roundabout, with vehicles
able to connect to existing highway provision.
From the new Queens Road signalised junction, buses will continue to share the single-
carriageway provision with general traffic. Services will follow the new highway connection to
the Cater Road roundabout junction.
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Existing footpaths cross the reserved transport corridor between Queens Road and Hareclive
Road linking the residential areas to the north and south. It is proposed to create a linear park
on either side of the SBL route in the residential area and to provide for pedestrians and
cyclists through the provision of;
A shared use cycleway / footway through the park on the northern side of the SBL route
between Goulston Road and Gatehouse Avenue, and a footway on the southern side,
A toucan crossing connecting Goulston Road and Gatehouse Avenue via Comleaze and
Gatehouse Way,
Uncontrolled crossings linking Heggard Close with Innox Gardens, Selley Walk with
Gatehouse Close and Acresbush Close with Gatehouse Court.
The 3m shared cycleway / footway will be provided along the entire length of the northern
side of the SBL route between Queens Road and Cater Road roundabout.
An existing signal controlled pedestrian crossing located near to the food superstore on
Whitchurch Lane will be retained. Pedestrian phases will also be integrated into the new
signalised junctions at Queens Road, Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane. Existing
footways will be re-provided adjacent to Hareclive Road and Whitchurch Lane in accordance
with the new alignment.
Investment Costs 2.6 Table 2.1 shows the estimated investment costs for the SBL. Key points to note for the economic
appraisal are:
The Local Authorities are contributing £15.445m (in outturn prices) to the project.
For this appraisal, £3.191m (in outturn prices) of Third Party Contributions has been
identified;
The scheme cost is £45,241,235, excluding inflation, which is thought to be 1,736,416, but is
considered directly within TUBA.
Table 2.1 – Summary of SBL BAFB Risk-Adjusted Investment Costs
Cost Item Scheme Cost Spend Period (Financial Yr)
Engineering works £27,229,238 2014-2016
Land and environment costs £2,594,000 2014-2016
Preliminaries £2,594,992 2014
Part 1 Claims £2,310,000 2014-2016
Preparatory £7,544,904 2011-2014
Risk Budget £2,968,100 2014-2016
Total £45,241,235
2.7 The investment costs presented in Table 2.1 have been profiled by financial year based on the
following assumptions:
Engineering works spend profiled in line with the proposed construction programme prepared
for the BAFB;
Land purchase will take place during 2014 and 2016;
5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
Site supervision and risk profiled in line with the engineering works spend profile; and
Preparatory costs incurred between 2011 and 2014, assuming statutory process costs are
incurred mainly during 2013.
Operating Costs and Commercial Viability 2.8 The following items were added to capital costs to calculate the total Present Value of Costs
(PVC) of the scheme.
Ongoing maintenance costs associated with the new infrastructure;
Ongoing additional bus operating costs covering bus purchase, vehicle running costs, driver
wages and other related costs; and
Periodic renewals associated with the scheme required throughout the 60 year appraisal
period
Operating Costs
2.9 Operating costs take into account factors such as driver and other staff costs, fuel, other vehicle
operating costs, insurance and licensing. This has been assumed at £415,745 per year.
2.10 Bus operating costs were assumed to grow at 4.5% p.a. between 2015 and 2020 (after which
growth was assumed to revert to general inflation, due to the difficulties and uncertainties of long
term economic forecasting).
2.11 The private operators would be liable for these costs. As the forecast levels of revenue generated
by the scheme for the RT operators was greater than the costs of running the services, no subsidy
payments have been assumed.
Fleet Costs
2.12 The additional Ashton Vale to Hengrove service increased the required fleet size by 2 vehicles.
Increases in frequencies of other existing services meant there was a further requirement for one
further bus.
2.13 The cost of ownership of these extra vehicles were applied as an incremental purchase cost,
occurring in the opening year and then every 15th year, as the vehicles need replacing. No real
cost increases were applied. The cost over sixty years was assumed to be £2,555,961.
2.14 As for other operating costs, these payments were assumed to be made by the bus operators with
no subsidy provided, since the revenue generated will more than cover the costs.
Maintenance and Construction Delay 2.15 Construction delay costs have not been calculated as the construction of the SBL would be
undertaken either completely off-line or in such a way/time as not to delay existing road users.
2.16 No maintenance delays have been calculated.
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3. Economic Appraisal Results
Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) 3.1 The BCR for SBL is 5.89 and offers very high value for money, with details of its derivation
shown in Table 3.1. The latest benefit cost ratio includes data from the latest SBL model, which
has a base year of 2012 and includes scheme costs from May 2013.
3.2 Details of the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) Table are shown in Appendix A and this
excludes reliability and wider impact benefits.
Table 3.1 – Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (Planning Application)
Item £m, 2002 prices discounted
Greenhouse Gases 1.056
Accidents -4.587
Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting and Other)
85.193
Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers
89.301
Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues)
-1.744
Reliability Impact: Business Users 14.051
Reliability Impact: Commuting and Other Users
16.189
Wider Impacts 24.950
Net Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 224.410
Local Government Funding 15.211
Central Government Funding 22.913
Net Present Value of Costs (PVC) 38.124
Net Present Value (NPV= PVB-PVC) 186.286
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR=PVB/PVC)
5.89
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Appendix A – TEE TABLE
5103087/5103087 SBL Economic Case Report v2.docx
Economy:Economic Efficiency of the Transport System(TEE)
Consumer - Commuting user benefits All Modes
Travel Time 89,098
Vehicle operating costs 2,352
User charges -834
During Construction & Maintenance 0
NET CONSUMER - COMMUTING BENEFITS 90,615
Consumer - Other user benefits All Modes
Travel Time -5,630
Vehicle operating costs 0
User charges 207
During Construction & Maintenance 0
NET CONSUMER - OTHER BENEFITS -5,423
Business All Modes Personal Freight Personal Freight Personal Freight
Travel Time 94,854 45,794 53,009 -462 0 -3,487 0
Vehicle operating costs 6,419 1,464 4,955 0 0 0 0
User charges -443 -195 -72 0 0 -176 0
During Construction & Maintenance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal 100,831 47,064 57,892 -462 0 -3,663 0
Private Sector Provider Impacts
Revenue -2,036
Operating costs -7,631
Investment costs 0
Grant/subsidy 0
Subtotal -9,667
Other business Impacts
Developer contributions -1,862
NET BUSINESS IMPACT 89,301
TOTAL
Present Value of Transport Economic
Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 174,494
Note: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers.
Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2002, in 2002 prices
Public Accounts
Local Government Funding ALL MODES
Revenue -649
Operating Costs 2,845
Investment Costs 14,877
Developer Contributions -1,862
Grant/Subsidy Payments 0
NET IMPACT 15,211
Central Government Funding: Transport ALL MODES
Revenue 0
Operating costs 0
Investment costs 22,913
Developer Contributions 0
Grant/Subsidy Payments 0
NET IMPACT 22,913
Central Government Funding: Non-Transport
Indirect Tax Revenues 1,744
TOTALS
Broad Transport Budget 38,124
Wider Public Finances 1,744
Note: Costs appear as positive numbers, while revenues and developer contributions appear as negative numbers.
Note: All entries are present values discounted to 2002, in 2002 prices
Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits
Greenhouse Gases 1,056
Accidents -4586.526321
Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Commuting) 90,615
Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) -5,423
Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers 89,301
Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) -1,744
Present Value of Benefits (PVB) 169,220
Broad Transport Budget 38,124
Present Value of Costs (PVC) 38,124
OVERALL IMPACTS
Net Present Value (NPV) 131,096
Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 4.44
Note: This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in
transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant
costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis
presented above does NOT provide a good measure of value for money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions.
94,379 -2,284 -2,997
2,352 0 0
-469 0 -365
Road Bus Rail
Road Bus Rail
0 -3,537 -2,092
0 0 0
96,262 -2,284 -3,363
0 0 0
0 -3,537 -1,885
0 0 0
0 0 207
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 -2,593 557
0 -7,631 0
Road Bus Rail
-649 0 0
0 -10,223 557
-1,862 0 0
-1,862 0 0
0 0 0
2,845 0 0
14,877 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
15,211 0 0
Road Bus Rail
0 0 0
22,913 0 0
22,913 0 0
0 0 0
2,039 -442 147
2,039 -442 147
38,124 0 0