south asia outlook, jan 2014
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Economic Prospects January 2014
South Asia RegionSanket Mohapatra
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook
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South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak
4.6 percent in 2013.
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GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013
Source: World Bank, national sources
GDP growth (percent)
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Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in
current fiscal year.
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Pakistan’s growth has
averaged 3.5% since 2010.
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A challenging external environment played a role.
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A challenging external environment played a role.
But domestic imbalances and policy
uncertainties were important contributors as well.
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A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions
Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$)
Source: World Bank, Dealogic
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013
Source: World Bank, Datastream.
Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014.
Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
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A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
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A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
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A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand
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Risks to the outlook
• Domestic risks dominant:– Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations– Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India
in 2014)– Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure,
agriculture• Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying
normalization of macro policy in high income countries• Fragile global growth
– Euro Area not out of woods yet– Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East
• Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth
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Global Economic Prospects January 2014
South Asia RegionSanket Mohapatra
World BankJanuary 2014
www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook