south african weather service - parliamentary portfolio committee...

South African Weather Service -

Parliamentary Portfolio Committee

Presentation

Dr Linda Makuleni

02 SEPTEMBER 2014

“Saving lives and property”

CONTENTS

2

• About SAWS

• SAWS Strategy

• Challenges

• Opportunities

• Conclusion

Doc Ref no: CA-PPT-PPCEA 02

02 September 2014

ABOUT THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE

SAWS MANDATE

• South African Weather Service Act, Act No. 8 of 2001

• SAWS Amendment Act, Act No. 48 of 2013),

• Public Finance Management Act (PFMA), Act No. 1 of

1999 and associated Treasury Regulations.

SAWS MANDATE The objects of SAWS are:

• to maintain, extend and improve the quality of

meteorological services and ambient air quality-related

information services for the benefit of all South

Africans;

• to provide public good services and commercial services

to all South Africans;

• to ensure the ongoing collection of meteorological and

ambient air quality data over South Africa and

surrounding southern oceans for the use by current and

future generations;

• to be the long-term custodian of a reliable national

climatological record and ambient air quality services;

SAWS MANDATE The objects of SAWS are:

• to be the long-term custodian of a reliable national

climatological record and ambient air quality services;

• as the national meteorological service of the Republic of

South Africa, to fulfil the international obligations of

the Government under the Convention of the World

Meteorological Organisation;

• as the Aviation Meteorological Authority, to fulfil the

international obligations of the Government under the

Convention of the International Civil Aviation

Organisation;

SAWS MANDATE

The objects of SAWS are:

• to provide services that are sensitive to the

demographic realities of the country;

• to fulfil such other weather-related or ambient air

quality international obligations as the Minister may

direct; and

• to be custodian of the South African Air Quality

Information System (SAAQIS) and manage, operate,

develop and maintain the National Ambient Air Quality

Monitoring Network (NAAQMN).

BENEFICIARIES

VISION STATEMENT

“A weather and climate centre of excellence providing innovative solutions

to ensure a weather-ready region, sustainable development and economic

growth”

VISION

MANDATE

SAWS will realize its vision through excelling in the following areas: • Thought leadership in meteorological,

climatological and other related sciences;

• The development of relevant and innovative applications and products utilising cutting edge technology;

• Establishing and leveraging collaborative partnerships.

MISSION

SAWS is guided by and committed to the following set of values:

• THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

• PROFESSIONALISM • INTEGRITY • CARING

• ACCOUNTABILITY

• RECOGNITION OF EXCELLENCE

• TEAMWORK

SAWS VALUES

• National: Contribute to Climate Change and Variability Adaptation

• the safety of life and property

Ensure Sustainability of Meteorological Competence

E.g. Build a national talent pool of atmospheric science and related services

• Regional: Meteorological Association of Southern Africa

African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology

SAWS OBLIGATIONS

• International: Regional Telecommunications Hub – Telecomms hub

Regional Training Centre – WMO Accredited training center

RSMC – Specialised early warning programmes

Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecast-

EUMETSAT CoE – Satellite Meteorology capacity building

International Civil Aviation Organisation(ICAO)

SAWS OBLIGATIONS

OVERVIEW OF ACHIEVEMENTS

Achievements vs. Target

45 targets

- 36 Achieved

- 9 Not Achieved

80% achieved of the targets

OVERVIEW OF SUCCESSES 2013/14

Employment Equity Statistics : 388 Employees

Core Skills Equity Distribution: 291 Employee

Government Grant Revenue Analysis

Regulated Commercial Revenue – (Aviation Revenue)

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Aviation revenue 44 180 374 47 501 021 46 131 571 52 704 478 52 148 957 49 031 180 70 631 332 80 417 444 73 771 350 81 952 308

0

10 000 000

20 000 000

30 000 000

40 000 000

50 000 000

60 000 000

70 000 000

80 000 000

90 000 000

Axis

Tit

le

Non-regulated Commercial Revenue

STAKEHOLDER PERCEPTIONS

PRODUCT & SERVICE ACHIEVEMENTS

Product Description Impact

Hail Cast System Forecasting the occurrence and

size of hail for SA and SADC.

Severe Weather Warning

product. Preventing losses and

damages.

Real time Precipitation Monitoring Radar and satellite products to

monitor precipitation.

Serve as input towards flash flood

warning systems such as the

SAFFG and SARFFG

Fire Danger Index Highlights hotspots for outbreak

of veld fires

Disaster Management

Climate Change Scenarios Projected changes in the future

climate including droughts, floods

and heat waves.

Reduction in losses and

damages from extreme weather

hazards.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT

Product Description Impact

Lightning Activity Map (LAM) and

lightning climatology (LC)

Products indicating in real-time

lightning occurrence

Severe weather warning to the

public on cellphones and

Lightning Climatology for an

indication of lightning prone areas

in the country

Hybrid CCTV/AWS systems Designed to monitor real time

conditions to ensure quick

responses to changing weather

conditions. The application is

used by:-

National Ports, Municipalities,

Construction Industry +

Any agency that needs to monitor

weather

Community Rainfall Station

(CRS)

Designed to monitor rainfall rate.

Risk indicator for potential

flooding. Self configured through

mobile phone.

Disaster managers,

municipalities, Schools,

Communities (including home

owners), events etc.

Future Services:

Agro & Hydro Applications and

Products

Products that addresses

applications on specific sectors.

Health , Agriculture, Hydrology,

Energy , DRR etc.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY APPLICATIONS AND IMPACT

SAWS STRATEGY

SAWS STRATEGIC APPROACH

Scientific excellence

Quest for best in its

class

SAWS ACT

SAWS Mandate

National & International

obligations

SAWS STRATEGIC LINE OF SIGHT

27

SAWS CONTEXTUAL OVERVIEW AND STRATEGIC DIRECTION

Growth

2001 – 2010/11

Consolidation

2011/12 – 2014/15

Sustainability

2914/15 - 2020

STRATEGIC DRIVERS

Compliance with relevant

legislation and regulatory

framework

Organisational Capability

Resource Constraints

Competition

Templ ref: PPT-ISO-.001 Doc

Ref no: CEO – QUAR-REP

112012

30

SAWS Organisational Overview

SAWS Key Value Add Activities

0 – 6

Hours

24 -72

Hours

4 -10

Days

11- 30

Days

30 Days– 2 Years

> 2 Years

F

ore

cast

Observations Numerical Weather Prediction Global Climate Model

-Satellite

-Radar

-SAFFG

-Synops

-LDN

-Upper Air

-Regional (SADC)

-Local (SA)

-Mesoscale

-Ensembles

-MOS

Coupled: GCM+ Ocean

-Medium range

(ECMWF)

-Ensembles

(NCEP)

-MOS

-Ensembles

-MOS

-Multi-model

Ensembles

-MOS

-Ocean Models-

GCM Ensembles

Outlook:

-Rainfall &

temperature

anomalies

Advisories:

-Potential

hazardous

weather

events

-Rain and

temperature

anomalies

Outlook:

-Rainfall and

temperature

anomalies

-Rainfall and

Temperature

Tendencies

-Climate

Change

Watches & Warnings:

-Severe weather

-Daily weather elements

Disaster

management,

Hydrology,

Public

Disaster Man,

Agriculture,

Hydrology,

Commerce

Disaster Man,

Public,

Agriculture,

Commerce

Commerce,

Agriculture,

Health,

Energy

Commerce,

Agriculture,

Health,

Energy

Strategic planning

Agriculture,

Energy,

Environment.

B

en

efi

ts

P

rod

uc

ts

To

ols

6-24

Hours

SAWS Infrastructure

Lightning

Detection

Network Radar Network Automatic Weather

Stations

SAWS INFRASTRUCTURE

Key Strategic Goals and Objectives

KEY STRATEGIC GOALS & OBJECTIVES STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

1.To ensure the continued relevance of the organisation in delivering meteorological and related products and services

1.1. Maintain compliance will all statutory requirements

1.2. Improve programmes and applications for weather and climate variability, climate change adaptation and mitigation

1.3. Develop products and services


2. To ensure the effective

management of stakeholder,

partner and key client relations

2.1. Maintain stakeholder relationships

2.2. Increase partnerships and collaborations


3. To address the short-term viability and long-term sustainability of SAWS revenue and ensure continued fiscal discipline

3.1. Grow public good revenue

3.2. Grow aviation revenue

3.3. Grow commercial revenue


4. To ensure continuous organisational effectiveness and efficiency

4.1. Provide and enhance optimal observation network, processing and dissemination platforms

4.2. Retain and Maintain the Total Quality Management System


5. To create a strategy - driven human capital capacity for SAWS performance

5.1. Ensure the availability of strategy-driven human capital capacity

5.2. Build a talent pool for atmospheric science and related services

KEY RESOURCES REQUIRED Resource Type Comment

Physical Key weather and climate infrastructure

Infrastructure Recapitalisation plan and MSP need funding

Human Well respected scientists

Human Capacity is required to effect the Research and Development strategy, Agro Hydro feasibility study, MSP as well as the Preventative Maintenance Plan

Technology Cutting edge, innovative technology

Automation of business processes

Integration of systems

Financial Financial and fiscal discipline

Additional funding required

Cost structure

Intellectual SAWS brand

Proprietary knowledge

Strategic alliances and partnerships

Promote innovation and IP management and IKM

PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT FOR 2015/16 TO 2019/20

Budget

Description 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000

Total Revenue 317,289 303,353 348,123 373,040 425,447 446,719

Total Expenses (287,289) (303,353) (348,123) (373,040) (391,691) (411,276)

Operating Surplus/(Deficit)

(before depreciation and amortisation)

30,000 - - - 33,756 35,443

Depreciation and Amortisation (28,743) (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) (33,756) (35,443)

Surplus / (Deficit) for the year 1,257 (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) - -

Medium Term Estimates Projections

PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT FOR 2015/16 TO 2019/20

• These are preliminary figures as submitted to National Treasury via the Department of Environmental

Affairs on the 28 July 2014 and are subject to approval awaited in December 2014 / January 2015.

Budget

Description 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000 R'000

Revenue

Government Grant - Operational 138,229 145,507 174,278 192,438 235,815 247,606

Government Grant - Capex 30,000 - - - - -

Government Grant - SAAQIS 14,260 14,916 15,707 14,800 15,540 16,317

Commercial Income 26,000 36,981 46,892 48,993 51,443 54,015

Aviation Income 101,800 98,449 103,371 108,540 113,967 119,665

Other income and Donor Funds 7,000 7,500 7,875 8,269 8,682 9,117

Total Revenue 317,289 303,353 348,123 373,040 425,447 446,719

Expenditure

Employee Costs (196,401) (209,167) (222,763) (237,243) (249,105) (261,560)

Administrative and Operating Costs (90,888) (94,186) (125,360) (135,797) (142,587) (149,716)

Total Expenditure (287,289) (303,353) (348,123) (373,040) (391,691) (411,276)

Operating Surplus Before Depreciation and

Amortisation 30,000 - - - 33,756 35,443

Depreciation and Amortisation (28,743) (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) (33,756) (35,443)

Surplus / (Deficit) for the year 1,257 (28,116) (30,250) (32,147) - -

Medium Term Estimates Projections

2014 MTEF PROPOSALS FOR NEW AND EXISTING CAPITAL PROJECTS

SAWS has adopted an Enterprise Risk management (ERM) approach in facilitating the risk management process

An ERM was conducted, resulting in the identification of the KEY strategic

risks

• Infrastructure management

• Funding

• Slow pace of Commercialisation of SAWS products

SAWS RISK PROFILE

KEY PROGRAMMES

Climate Change and Variability

Commercialisation and Resource Mobilisations

Infrastructure Recapitalisation

Business Optimisation and Re-alignment

Human Capital Development

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PROGRAMME

Severe Weather Early Warning System

• Through this programme, SAWS is able to alert Disaster

Managers and Public to minimize impact

• Recent example: March 2014 floods (Limpopo pictures below)

Templ ref: PPT-ISO-.001 Doc Ref no: SAWS-MINISTER-DM BILATERAL-03062014

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: Climate change impacts effective management

MTSF (2019) SAWS INPUT (2019)

Adaptation plans developed for 6

key sectors

• Implementation of the Research and development strategy

• Establishment of hydrometeorology and Agro-meteorology capabilities

• Development of 8 Product/Service Applications and Systems

• Develop, operate and manage SAAQIS/NAAQMN

• Severe Weather Warning System maintenance and enhancement.

• Early Warning System

• Severe Weather Forecasting guidance products SADC

• South African Flash Flood Guidance system

• Southern African Regional Flash Flood Guidance system

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: A fair contribution to the global effort to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere

facilitated


Development and

Implementation of sector

adaptation strategies/plans

• Conduct Research to improve climate change modelling techniques as well as

climate change impacts on severe weather patterns

• Research Project on Climate Change impacts on drought and flood hazards in

South Africa for planning and decision making completed

• Research Project on the implications of changes in soil moisture – climate

interactions on droughts, heat waves and desertification in the SADC region

completed

• Research Project on the impacts of the 2°C global warming target over the SADC

region completed

• Continuous monitoring of trace gas and green house gas species conducted

• Solar resource monitoring stations established

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: A fair contribution to the global effort to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere

facilitated


Establish a national framework for

climate services (SAWS)

• National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) developed and

implemented in line with the National Climate Change

Response Policy and the GFCS Roadmap.

• Observations and Monitoring

• Climate Services information System

• Research, Modeling and Prediction

• Capacity Development

Framework for reporting on Green

House Emissions by industry

developed and reports provided

A fully functional SAAQIS/NAAQMN

GAW Station Monitoring of GHG

CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY PRIORITY AREA: Cleaner and healthy air


% compliance with National Annual Ambient Air

Quality Standards

(National Air Quality Indicator – NAQI less than 1)

Continuous collection and storage of ambient air quality data

on SAAQIS as well as maintenance of the database

100% facilities with Atmospheric Emission Licences

reporting to the National Atmospheric Emissions

Inventory System (NAEIS)

Hosting of SAAQIS

NAEIS will be within the SAAQIS

% compliance with National Annual Ambient Air

Quality Standards

(National Air Quality Indicator – NAQI less than 1)

There are currently 98 ambient air quality monitoring stations

reporting to SAAQIS.

Continued operation of Vaal, Highveld and Waterberg priority

area monitoring networks by SAWS and data reported to

SAAQIS

80% data recovery for all stations operated by SAWS.

Monthly air quality monitoring reports compiled and

submitted to DEA.

WIS Revenue:

Makes up 35% of total Non-

regulated commercial revenue

Revenue has increased by 32%

year-on-year to R5,8 million

Growth in Revenue of 573% since

2010

857 713

1 977 496

3 525 340

4 384 785

5 772 943

WIS

WIS Revenue Analysis - Last 5 Years

FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014

COMMERCIALISATION & RESOURCE MOBILISATION PROGRAM

INFRASTRUCTURE RECAPITALISATION PROGRAMME

• Automation of observation infrastructure

• Optimal observation network • Preventative Maintenance Plan

o Attainment of 80% availability of information from key observation

infrastructure, e.g. Radars, SAAQIS

o Planned maintenance of infrastructure (e.g. AWS, ARS, CRS, LDN etc.)

done as per schedules

• Implementation of MSP ICT is core in supporting SAWS business for both national and international operations

o High Performance Computing (HPC)

-Higher Model resolution

-More accurate Weather Forecast

-Enhanced applications (for Climate Change impact-adaptation)

Fettes Street – close to PE Stadium

Nelson Mandela Municipality

AWS and pan tilt camera

Port of Ngqura

APPLICATION-HYBRID CCTV/AWS

BUSINESS OPTIMISATION & RE-ALIGNMENT

Maintenance of TQM System

Improvement and optimisation of business processes to

ensure cost effectiveness

Implementation of the BCP

HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

• SAWS Human Capital Management Strategy:

o Talent Management

o Attraction and Retention

o Dual Career Path

o Critical Skills Transfer

o Bursary scheme

o Leadership Development program

o Structured Closer Collaboration with Academic

Institutions

• WMO accredited Regional Training Centre

• National Skills Catalytic Program

– Respond to NDP – build necessary capacity

and capability.

– National & Local Government

– Skills:

• Hydro meteorology

• Agro meteorology

• Air quality

HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

CHALLENGES

Operational Grant Trend over last 5 years

Operational Grant excluding SAAQIS over last 5 years 2014/15 20113/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11

R R R R R

MTEF Proposed Budget 158 229 000 149 490 000 154 671 000 142 469 000 135 915 000

MTEF Approved Budget 138 229 000 149 490 000 138 318 000 126 024 000 135 915 000

Reduction in Proposed Budget 20 000 000 - 16 353 000 16 445 000 -

% Decrease in Proposed Budget 13% 0% 11% 12% 0%

% Increase/(Decrease) in Approved Budget (year-on-year) -8% 8% 10% -7% 4%

Operational Grant versus Total Revenue

2004/05 2013/14

Employee Costs as % of Operational Grant

Employee Costs as % of Total Cost

IMPACT OF BUDGET CONSTRAINT

Reputation of the Country –

National and International

24/7

Service/ Warnings

Repairs & Maintenance

Service Provision to Commercial

Clients

R & D

HRD

Knowledge Generation

Aviation Safety and Safe Sky

Data Quality; Reliability &

Integrity

2014/15 Maintenance Budget

Budget 2014/15

R3,7M

Budget required

R10,8M

Shortfall

-R7M

Radar Data Availability Qtr2 to date Radar Equipment Availability - Qtr 2

Radar Site

July % Performance

August % Performance

Average % Performance

Targeted SLA + TQM Performance %

Irene 71.71 79 75.36 80

Polokwane 100 100 100.00 80 Ermelo 0.07 0.07 0.07 80

Durban 98.78 100 99.39 80 Bethlehem 100 79 89.50 80 Bloemfontein S 100 95 97.50 80

Ottosdal 0.07 0.07 0.07 80 Port Elizabeth 97.52 100 98.76 80

East London 100 100 100.00 80

Cape Town 77.17 100 88.59 80

De Aar 100 100 100.00 70 Mthata 25.32 0 12.66 70 George 0.07 0 0.04 70

Skukuza 89.29 100 94.65 80

Average 69 68 68.33 80

Key Issues Affecting Radar Network

April May June Qtr Avg AVR GENSET UPS AIRCON

Irene 98.86 99.26 71 89.71

Polokwane 98.10 94.68 100 97.59

Skukuza 84.10 81.06 77 80.72

Ermelo

Durban 100.00 99.68 60.93 86.87

Bethlehem

Bloemfontein S 88.56 49.72 100 79.43

Ottosdal

De Aar 98.40 89.22 65.76 84.46

Port Elizabeth 99.45 98.00 100 99.15

Mthata 70.16 93.69 6.45 56.77

East London 100.00 83.79 97.51 93.77

Cape Town

George

Status of Power Supply &

Cooling

RESOLVED

RESOLVED

Filtered Radar Data Availability from April to June 2014Comments

Running, but Genset broken down. UPS needs

service

UPS Problems - contract/legal? SLA required

for all radar UPS

It took 3 months to buy batteries for the UPS

UPS needs repairs. Genset needs service.

Frequent power outages.

Spares - Delivery ,March 2015. No UPS.

Genset needs repairs

Reoccuring elevation fault. Cannot guarantee

performance yet

OPPORTUNITIES

Stakeholder Management

New Emerging Opportunities & Challenges

Partnership & Alliances

Balancing Commercialisation with Public Good

Top Line Interventions

STAKEHOLDER RELATIONS MANAGEMENT MATURITY MODEL

Employees

SAWS Suppliers

Business Partners

New Clients

RCMS and Aviation Industry

Government

Knowledge Institution

Climate Change and Variability

• Research and develop application and/or provide

services:

o Adaptation Plans for key sectors within Green

Economy

o National Climate Change Policy

o National Development Plan Chapter 5

• Compliance with National Annual Ambient Air Quality

Standards

EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES

Commercialisation and Resource Mobilization

• Science based solution for the Renewable Energy

Industry

• Manage risk and protect safety of life

• Planning and risk management

• Adaptation Strategies: Early Warning Systems &

Hazardous Weather Conditions

• Weather Sensitive Industries: easy of access to

information


Infrastructure Recapitilisation

• Enhance the observation network in support of Climate

Change and variability Adaptation – Provinces and

Municipalities

• Collaboration and partnership aligned to provincial and

municipality climate change and disaster risk reduction

plans


Business Optimisation and Realignment

• Quality service to the International / regional / national

programmes

• Provision of meteorological Public Good and Commercial

Services

• Provision of critical services

• Collaboration with Security Cluster


Human Capital Development

• National Educational Plan enabler for National

Development Plan Chapter 5 & 9

• Develop national capabilities contributing to specific

sectors – improve R&D, sustainable infrastructure

development and national economic growth


CONCLUSION

• Resource Mobilisation • Continued investment in

Infrastructure and Human Capital

• Stakeholder Relations Management

• Strong Collaboration • Policy Development and

Governance Framework that promote organisational agility to respond to emerging competitors and opportunities

CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS - SUSTAINABILITY

Strategic Plan is geared towards long term sustainability of SAWS and Supports Government Priorities

I thank you

CONCLUSION

Discussion?

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