sospeter muhongo international council for … muhongo international council for science (icsu) ......
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STI Institutional Arrangements in Africa - Science in Service of Society
Sospeter MuhongoInternational Council for Science (ICSU)
Regional Office for [email protected]
www.icsu-africa.org
MONASH UNIVERSITYSouth Africa, 30 October 2007
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Economic Status
About 40% of Sub-Saharan Africa (ca. 250 million people) lives in absolute poverty
GNI: ca. US dollars 400 billion (Hong Kong: 176.2)GNI per capita: ca. US dollars 490 (Hong Kong: 25,860)
Highest GNI per capita (2004): GNI: (1) Seychelles: US$ 7,350 (1) South Africa (2) Mauritius: 4,100 (2) Nigeria(3) Botswana: 3,530(4) Gabon: 3,400(5) South Africa: 2,920
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$2.20 / day $0.90 / day
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Poverty: George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950), Irish dramatist
“The greatest of evils and the worst of crimes is poverty”
The African Women:└► produce 70% of the continent’s food└► work: ca. 65% of the continent’s working hours└►earn only 10% of the continent’s wealth└►own less than 1% of the continent’s property
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”Of the approximately 816 million people in Africa in 2001, it is estimated that:
1 in 4 have a radio (205m),
1 in 13 have a TV (62m)
1 in 35 have a mobile phone (24m)
1 in 40 have a fixed line (20m)
1 in 130 have a PC (5.9m)
1 in 60 use the Internet (5m)
1 in 400 have pay TV (2m)”ITU, UNESCO, Jensen
STATUS AND TRENDS OF ICTs in AFRICA
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SRTI: Conceptual change
Linear Model Research Technology
Circular Model
With Gap
Research
Technology
Without Gap
Application stimulates ResearchNew Technologies allow New DiscoveriesPrivate Sector is a Key player in R & D
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International Published Output (percentage)
Region and country 1988 1990 1995 2000 2003 percent change
Other Asia (excl China, S Korea, Singp, Taiw.) 2.17 2.08 1.96 1.94 2.26 + 4.12%
Near East/North Africa 1.69 1.62 1.66 1.76 1.93 + 13.83%
Central/South America 1.21 1.35 1.64 2.33 2.71 + 124.4%
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.97 0.86 0.72 0.63 0.60 - 0.382%
Source: Science and Engineering Indicators, 2006: derived from Thompson ISI, Social Science Index and Science Indexes
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The 360-degree curve (STI)
Science └└►► Technology
└└►► Innovation └└►► Wealth Creation
└└►► Science
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2000: Researchers per million inhabitants
78
309143
5543109
4006
5206
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Africa
S Africa
India
China
Germany
USA
Japan
Researchers
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2000: Shares of World GERD (global-gross expenditure on R&D)
0.6
0.3
1.6
6.7
7.1
35.6
13.2
0 10 20 30 40
Africa
S Africa
India
China
Germany
USA
Japan
% age
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Institutional Arrangements in Africa
African countries: 1% GDP for STI (public and private sectors)
STI institutions └└►► Private – Public Business Sectors
Budgets: └└►►training, research and innovation
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Exporters of Commercial Services: 2003
Top 10 developing country exporters of commercial services: └└►this accounts to 10% of World’s
Commercial Service Exports3. China: US$ 48 billion4. India: 25 billion5. Turkey: 20 billion6. Russia Fed. 18 billion7. Thailand 17 billion8. Malaysia 15 billion9. Mexico 13 billion10. Poland 12 billion11. Egypt 12 billion12. Brazil 10 billion
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STI & Wealth Creation
The leading STI fields in the 21st Century:● Life Science● Health Science● Biotechnology & Nanotechnology● Space Science● ICT● Agricultural Technologies & Industries● Science of Climate Change● S&T of Energy Resources and Coal
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Participation in Education: 2002/03Net Enrollment Ration: % of relevant age group
Primary Secondary South Africa 89 66Botswana 81 54 Lesotho 86 22Swaziland 75 32Mozambique 55 12
Egypt 90 81Jamaica 95 75Mongolia 79 77Hong Kong 98 72
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Freshwater: 2002
Access to improved water source% of urban % of rural
population population
South Africa 98 73Botswana 100 90Namibia 98 72Mozambique 76 24Lesotho 88 74Swaziland 87 42Angola 70 40
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Groundwater: Over 95% of the Earth’s useable fresh water is stored as groundwater
Transborder groundwater resources
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Health and Human Well-being in Africa
Population: ca. 880 millionAnnual Population Growth: 2-4%
Life Expectance at Birth: 45.8 years
Mortality rate: 103.1 (infants per 1000 live births)
Prevalence of HIV/AIDS:% age of population aged 15-49: ca 8.5%
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Dependence of Africa on Biological Production Systems
c.70% of Africa’s Workforce is employed in the AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
c.40% of GDP of African countries flows from AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
c.80% of African population depends on TRADITIONAL MEDICINE
BIODIVERSTY FEEDING AFRICA:
Fishing, Hunting, Wild fruits as only source of livelihood to many African communities
PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS (Development & Production):
Rely heavily on biological systems (i.e., flora and fauna)
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Milestones (SRTC): Science, Research, Technology, Innovation
Latest Developments in SRTI:
Brazil: the New Development Policy-└►►Accelerated Economic Growth
♦ Brazil produces > 10, 000 PhDs per annum♦ Brazil has 1,700 Research Groups dedicated to Biotechnology♦ Private & Public Investments in the Biotechnology Industry to
reach US$ 4.8 Billion over the next 10 years.♦ Goals: to produce (a) cheaper medicines and vaccines, (b)
industrial enzymes, (c) more nutritive foods, etc♦ 4 Priority Areas, (a) Human Health, (b) Arable & Cattle
Farming, (c) Industry and (d) Environment
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Science, Research, Technology & Innovation
China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:
2007: S&T accounts for 40% of the country’s economy(Japan, UK and USA – up to 80% of their economies)
2050: S&T should account for 75% of the country’s economic growth
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SRTI in China
China’s Fast-Track Science Plan:5-year Key Technology Research Development Program♦ Efficient Energy & Resources Utilization♦ Agricultural Technologies♦ Technologies for the Information Technology Sector and for the
Manufacturing Equipment♦ Population, Health and Public Security
Investment: US$ 2.5 Billion in 5 years (Private & Public Partnership)Sources of Funding: (a) Central Government – US$ 925 Million, (b) Local
Government (c) Business & Research Institutions
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STRI in South Korea
New Miracles:National Ambitions – ♦ 10th Position in the World in Scientific Competitiveness♦ 5th Position in the World in Technological Capability by the end of 2007
How is this possible?♦ R&D Research Budget growing at ca. 9.7% annually for the last 6 years
└►► reaching ca. 3% of GDP in 2006♦ R&D Investment to grow in Double-Digit range Every Year for the next 15
Years
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South Korea
Where did the success come from?
♦ Mass of Highly Educated People♦ Networked Society – Information Infrastructure
♦ Innovation System (ubiquitous)♦ Heavy Investments in R&D by the
Government and the Business Sector
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South Korea – 2007 projects
♦ Over US$ 1.0 Trillion (Euro 820 Million) to bolster the country’s Biotech and Nanotech capabilities└►► Biotechnology Research-
(a) Brain Research (b) Natural Ageing process – slowing down the process
└►► Nanotechnology Research- (a) Nano-mechatronics (b) Development of Tera-Level Nano Materials
♦ Korean Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) Nuclear Fusion Reactor
♦ Participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)
♦ Aerospace – 6 satellites are being assembled in labs this year and the expected launch of South Korean’s very own satellite using an indigenous rocklet will take place in late 2008.
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2000: World GDP, Population, R&D
WorldGERD
World GDP
WorldResearchers
WorldPopulation
72%
28%
80%58%21%Developed Countries
20%42%79%Developing Countries
Global-Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD): 2000- US$ 746 billion
1997- US$ 547 billion
World Researchers: 1997 – Developing Countries: 28%
1985 - “ 12%
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SCIENCE PLAN I: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Access to electricity – Africa: Energy for Sustainable Development
└►►►affordable, accessible and reliable energy service
Population without access to electricity:
Sub-Saharan Africa: ca. 77%North Africa & Middle East: ca. 9%China: ca. 1.5%India: ca. 55% (India’s consumption>> Africa)Latin America: ca. 13%
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PHANEROZOIC OF AFRICA:CAMBRIAN to PRESENT
Earth formation 0ca. 4 500 million years (4.5 Ga)
Life Explosion
AFRICA: STABLE CONTINENT OVER THE LAST 500 Ma
►► ACCUMULATION OF A VARIETY OF MINERAL RESOURCES, INCLUDING FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY
PRECAMBRIAN
545 Ma
PHANEROZOIC
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Science Plan I:Sustainable Energy
ENERGY RESOURCES IN AFRICAClassical sources:♦ Oil – about 10% of the world’s reserves (Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia)♦ Natural Gas - about 8% of world’s reserves, to last >50 years (Egypt: 100 yrs)♦ Coal – about 6% of world’s reserves, to last >300 years (Tanzania: >500 million tons)
♦ Nuclear- Uranium reserves to last >100 years♦ Hydro-power: about 12% of the world’s total
African Drainage Systems (Rivers), e.g. River Congo
Other major sources:♦ Bio-fuels, e.g. Mauritius: 20% from sugar cane (bagasse for electricity)♦ Solar♦ Wind♦ Geothermal: Kenya – about 25% of the total electricity consumed♦ Ocean – (a) waves/tides, and (b) hydrocarbons on the sea-bed♦ Hydrogen
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Weathering of Precambrian cratons, sediment accumulation in continental basins, Rift volcanic activity,…
COAL, OIL, URANIUM in basins,
PHOSPHATE, GYPSUM, BAUXITE
DIAMOND CHIMNEYS;
PLACER DEPOSITS OF gold, diamond, titanium sands,..)
Precambrian basement
Atlas range
Cape fold belt
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Sustainable Energy for Africa: Proposed Projects
Project SE1 (takes off by January 2008): Development of Energy Scenarios & Models for Africa
Project SE2 (takes off by January 2008): Biofuels for Africa
● Provision of substantial increase in reliable and sustainable energy access for rural and urban areas
● Increase access to high quality, reliable and affordable energy in a sustainable manner
● Strengthening and retention of Human and Institutional capacities in the Energy Sector
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The Gondwana
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Financial Resources● African Governments● bi- and multi-lateral funding resources● AU/NEPAD and ECA initiatives● African Economic Communities (e.g. SADC, ECOWAS, EAC)● African Development Bank (ADB)● European Union (EU) Energy Initiative● EU/Africa Collaborative Programmes, e.g. EU-FP7● Private Sector● Financial Resources from Joint Projects, examples:
(a) ICSU Unions, e.g. IUGG/GIA, INQUA, IUGS/IGCP(b) UNESCO (c) GECAFS(d) TWAS/NASAC/AAS(e) UN-proclaimed Years, e.g. IPY, IYPE
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CURRENT STATUS
HEALTH SERVICES ??
FOOD SECURITY NUTRITION SECURITY
DISEASE BURDEN
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TARGETACCESS TO HEALTH SERVICES
DRUG DEV. FROM TM
BALANCED NUTRITION
FOOD SECURITY
HAPPY FAMILIES
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II –HEALTH & HUMAN WELL-BEING
FOOD SECURITY: feeding the hungry world
Population 1999 6 billion people 2050 9 billion people
90% of population will be in the South
Poverty:1.3 billion afflicted by poverty
Malnutrition840 million people suffer from malnutrition
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How can so many genes make rice?
Proposed number of rice genes:
approximately
50,000
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INDIA: Agriculture
2 Centers of Excellence will be created (US$ 22 Million):■ North India at Pantnagar– Govender Ballab Pant University of Agriculture & Technology
■ South India at Coimbatore– Tamil Nadu Agriculture University
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II–HEALTH & HUMAN WELL BEING
Nanotechnology: Application in Health Service
Potential for treating disease like MALARIA, TB HIV/AIDS, etc
Advantages:● Cheaper medicines and vaccines● Minimize the dose of drugs administered● Reduce dose frequency● Minimize side effects● Reduce the cost of treatment
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Science Plan II:Selected Research Themes
◘ Understanding the scientific basis of diseases in Africa
◘ Health promotion and disease prevention◘ Health systems analysis and development◘ Traditional/Complementary and alternative
medicine◘ Promotion of human well-being:
└└►► clean and safe water food/nutrition habitable shelter mineral resources
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III-NATURAL & HUMAN-INDUCED HAZARDS AND DISASTERS
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards & Disasters:● Floods● Mass movements, e.g. erosion, landslides, siltation
● Heat Waves● Wildfires● Tropical cyclones, hurricanes● Tornados, hailstorms, dust storms
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Rainfall in Africa
Flooding in BurundiFeb. 2007
Picture from BBC
Flooding in MozambiqueFeb. 2007
Picture from BBC
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FLOODS:Mozambique in 2000
♦ Affected 4 million people with estimated 700 deaths ♦ Losses amounting to ca. US$ 500 million♦ GDP growth rate decreased from 10% to 2%
Primary cause: (a) abnormal rainfall due to tropical cyclones causing
excessive flows from 9-12 rivers with catchments in other countries, especially the Limpopo River
Contributory causes:(a) Land degradation(b) Deforestation of the Limpopo River catchment area.
(c) Increased population density along river banks.
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Hazards & Disasters -cont-
Geological Hazards & Disasters:● Earthquakes● Volcanoes● Tsunamis● Collapse of constructions
Biological Hazards & Disasters:● Diseases● Pest Infestation● Biological Weapons
Technological Hazards & Disasters:● Air pollution (e.g., green-house gases)● Water pollution (e.g., heavy metals-Pb, Cd, As)
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The threat and major source for tsunamis
© GFZ, Potsdam
© GFZ, Potsdam
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Africa’s Rotation PoleThe Cameroon hotspot : 200 Ma – RecentLake Nyos Disaster – 4,000 people died in 1984
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HAZARDS & DISASTERS: CURRENT STATUS
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Science Plan III:Selected Research Themes● Creation and maintenance of a multidisciplinary hazard database
● Vulnerability science
● Science and policy linkage
● Integrated modelling of multiple disasters
● Geo-hazards (UN-proclaimed IYPE)
└└►►Implementation Strategy: the same approach as for Sustainable Energy:
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IV-Global Change:complex interaction between the core-mesosphere-asthenosphere-lithosphere- --biosphere-atmosphere
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Fundable Projects under preparation
Project I:Hydro-meteorological Hazards and Disasters in Africa
Project II:Geo-hazards in Africa
(within the framework of the UN-proclaimed IYPE)
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Science Plan IV:Global Change in Africa
Proposed Research Areas:♦ Land Degradation, Biodiversity Loss and
Human Well-being♦ Rainfall ♦ Resilience of Food Systems♦ Water Resources and their Governance♦ Atmospheric Pollution♦ Africa’s Oceanographic Uniqueness
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The Climate Change threats: Global Warming
♦ Since 1860 Global Temperature Rise is: 0.6+0.20C♦ Last 2 decades were the hottest in this century♦ 20th Century:
Average atmospheric temperature rise of 0.7 ºC in Africa
♦ Since 1950: Sea surface temperature rise: + 1ºC in the Indian ocean
♦ Projections – Rainfall –
• Increased frequency of floods• Increased frequency and duration of droughts
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The Climate Change threats: Global Warming
GHGs changing due to Human Activities:└►since pre-Industrial Era (~ 1750)
• CO2 by 30%• CH4 by over 100%• N2O by 15%
concentrations are higher now than any time during the last 420,000 yrs
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Great KarooPermo-Carboniferous glaciation of Gondwana and the largest mass extinction at the end of Permian (ca. 250 Ma ago) - (85% extinction of all organisms)
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New Slides (December 2006)
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Lemur Chameleon of Madagascar: A microcontinent (~ 50 Ma to Recent) evolving independently through time
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Zn Cu Co
CrPt
FeMn
Sn W
Au gems
AuAu
2Ga3Ga
proto-crust
PaleoproterozoicArchean
Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga Evolution of the African crust over the last 3.5 Ga
Mesoprot. Neoprot. Phaner.1GaEarth
formation
Zn Udiamond
Stabilisation / breakdown / extension(basin related & anorogenic mineral deposits:e.g., oil/gas, diamond, Fe, Cr, PGM)
Dominant crustal accretion / convergence (active margin-type & orogenic mineral deposits:e.g., Au, Sn, Wo, precious stones)
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Germanium
Titanium
Gallium
Rhenium
LCD
ExhaustPlatinum
New Jets
Palladium
Tantalum
0 - 2 years
from 2 to 5 years
Post-crisis
CrisisForecasting
Cell Phone 3D
Indium
Turbine
Mobile internet
LED
Cobalt
Selenium
Forecasting High-Tech Metals crisis
Time
Price
GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AFRICA
“Hype cycle” & killer applications
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New Africa & New DevelopmentRhetoric ──► ActionReports ──► Usable Products
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AFRICAN scientists, policy- and decision-makers:
Mwalimu Nyerere: “We must run while they are walking”“It can be done play your part”“Political Independence means work”
Science in Service of SocietyThank you for your attention