sos real estate panel powerpoint presentation · san francisco san jose 550 500 450 400 350 300 250...

2001200019991998199719961995199419931992

200

180

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80

Index 1992=100

Home SalesGSP Growth

GSP Growth vs. Home SalesCalifornia

Freddie Mac Conventional Mortgage Price IndexCalifornia vs. United States

02010099989796959493929190898887

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

Index 1987Q1=100

CaliforniaUnited States

Mortgage Rate Stimulates Housing SalesCalifornia

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

Thousands (SAAR) Percent

Home Sales (L)Conventional Mortgage Rate (R)

Median Home Prices – CA vs. U.S.1980 - 2001

0098969492908886848280

300

250

200

150

100

50

US$ Thousands


California’s Rising Home Prices1992 vs. 2001

Sta. BarbaraVallejo

Santa RosaOrange Co.

Santa CruzSalinas

San FranciscoSan Jose

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

US$ Thousands

19922001

California’s Rising Home Prices1992 vs. 2001

FresnoSacramento

ReddingChico

Los AngelesSan Luis Obispo

VenturaSan Diego

300

250

200

150

100

US$ Thousands

19922001

California’s Building Permits Rally BackResidential Building Permits

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993

220

200

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100

80

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Index 1993Q1=100


How Long Can It Last?California Unemployment Rate Rises

02010099989796959493929190

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

Thousands (SAAR) Percent

Home Sales (L)Unemployment Rate (R)

Income Growth Propels Housing MarketCalifornia

02010099989796959493929190

900

800

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Thousands (SAAR) Index 1991Q1=100

Home Sales (L)Income Growth (R)

U.S. Consumer Confidence DwindlesThe Short Run

200220012000

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Index 1985=100

0201

0099

9897

9695

9493

9291

9089

8887

8685

8483

8281

8079

7877

7675

7473

7271

7069

6867

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Index 1985=100

U.S. Historical Consumer ConfidenceThe Long Run

Race Profiles for Occupations

Professional & Managers

Clerical & Sales

Skilled Blue Collar

Unskilled & Services

White AsianAfrican American

Hispanic Indian

U.S. Latino PopulationPercentage in California

20202010200019901980

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

Percent

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Department of Finance

California Latino PopulationProjected Growth

20402030202020102000

30

25

20

15

10

5

Millions of People

Source: California Department of Finance

Latino Spending Power in California

2007200220001990

300

250

200

150

100

50

$US Billions

Source: Selig Center for Economic Growth

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

14000000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+

66%34%

CA Latino Population Distribution2000

AgeSource: California Department of Finance

African AmericanLatinoAsianWhiteAll Households

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

Rate

California Homeownership Ratesby Ethnicity, 2000

Source: California Budget Project Analysis of the Current Population Survey, 2000

Top 10 Homebuyer Surnames2000

Source: California Association of Realtors

NorthernCalifornia

SouthernCalifornia

Los AngelesCounty

1 Nguyen Garcia Garcia2 Wong Hernandez Lee3 Lee Lopez Rodriguez4 Chan Martinez Kim5 Tran Smith Hernandez6 Johnson Gonzalez Lopez7 Smith Rodriguez Gonzalez8 Singh Lee Martinez9 Garcia Kim Smith

10 Martinez Johnson Perez

California Counties With Latino HomebuyersTop Ten Counties, 2001


Contra CostaVentura

FresnoSanta Clara

SacramentoSan Diego

OrangeRiverside

San BernardinoLos Angeles

25

20

15

10

5

0

Thousands of Homes

California Latino Homeownership RatesThirty-year Comparison

Sources: US Census Bureau, Public Policy Institute of California

2000199019801970

50

48

46

44

42

40

Ownership Rate

15 or More Years10 - 14 Years5 - 9 YearsLess Than 4 Years

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Percent

Length of Current HomeownershipAmong California Hispanics, 2001

Source: Pepperdine University

Avoid Paying RentIndependence

Desire to OwnInvestment

Larger Family

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Percent

Top Five Reasons For Purchasing a HomeAmong California Hispanics, 2001


90%

89%

87%

87%

84%

80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92%

Owning is Better for Raising aFamily

Owning is a Good FinancialInvestment for Me

Owning Provides Me MoreIndependence

Owning Requires MoreResponsibility

Owning Provides Me a Sense ofSecurity/Stability


Experience of Homeownership Among CA Hispanics“Strongly Agree” With Following Statements

13%

16%

17%

19%

21%

22%

28%

29%

33%

37%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Working with Realtor/Agent

Obtaining Approval for Loan

Selecting/Finding a Lender

Establishing Good Credit

Finding a Community I Liked

Finding a Good Realtor/Agent

Obtaining the Downpayment

Application/Paperwork Process

Understanding Home-Buying Process

Finding a House I Liked

Top Challenges to HomeownershipCalifornia Hispanics


9%

37%

10%

14%

14%

13%

26%

25%

30%

36%

16%

29%

24%

23%

28%

30%

31%

34%

38%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Working with Realtor/Agent

Obtaining Approval for Loan

Selecting/Finding a Lender

Establishing Good Credit

Finding a Community I Liked

Finding a Good Realtor/Agent

Obtaining the Downpayment

Application/Paperwork Process

Understanding Home-Buying Process

Finding a House I Liked

Foreign-Born

U.S.-Born

Top Challenges to HomeownershipAmong California Hispanics


3+21

75

56

38

19

0

Percent

Number of Names on Home TitleAmong California Hispanic Homeowners


Note: Percentages Do Not Add Up to 100% Due to Respondents Indicating “Don’t Know/Refused”

Household Income Spent on Monthly MortgageU.S.-Born vs. Foreign Born, California


Foreign-BormU.S.-Born

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

Percent

Less Than 30% of Household IncomeMore Than 30% of Household Income

Type of Interest Rate

64%9%

7%

7%

13%Fixed

Variable

Adjustable

Other

Refused

Term of Loans

76%

5%5%

6%

8%

30 yr

15 yr

Other

None

Refused

Type of Loan Obtained

56%

25%

11%

5% 3%

Conventional

Govt (FHA)

Refused

None

Other

Type of Loan Used to Purchase Home

Price Ranges of a Purchased Home



Greater Than $200K$150K - $200K

$100K - $150K$80K - $100K

Less Than $80K

28

24

19

15

10

Percent of Houses Purchased

$$ Amount Used for Down Payment



$20K or Greater$10K - $20K

$5K - $10K$1K - $5K

No Money Down

30

25

20

15

10

5

Percent

OtherAdvertisingFamilyFriendRealtor/Agent

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Percent

How Did You Find The Lender?



Type of HomeExplain How to Finance

Amount AffordableFinding a Lender

Paperwork

70

65

60

55

50

45

Percent

Services Provided by Real Estate AgentsTo Latino Homebuyers


Percent of Monthly Income Spent on Rent

20% or Less21% - 30%31% - 40%Over 40%

35

30

25

20

15

10

Percent

16%

28%

42%Bad Credit/No Credit

Insufficient Income for DownPayment or No Money

Other

No86%

Yes14%

WHY WERE YOU UNSUCCESSFUL?

HAVE YOU TRIED TO PURCHASE BEFORE?

Renters Previously UnsuccessfulWhen Trying to Buy a Home



Renters Likely to Purchase HomeWithin Five Years

69%

31%

Not at All LikelyNot Very Likely

Somewhat LikelyVery Likely

Extremely Likely

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Percent

Looking to Purchase in . . .

39%

31%

19%

11%DK/Refused

4+ yrs.

2-4 yrs.

<2 yrs.

Respondents Likely to Purchase in Next Five Years

Why Not Likely?

43%

23%

4%Credit

Not Interested

InsufficientFinance

Respondents Not Likely to Purchase in Next Five Years

Level of Optimism of Purchasing Home in Future After Five Years

14%

28%

46%Optimistic

Pessimistic

Neither

Level of Optimism

5%

7%

32%

54%

Pessimistic

Neither

Somewhat

Very

Respondents Likely to Purchase Next Five Years

Respondents Not Likely to Purchase Next Five Years

Projected Size of Down Payment

26%

26%

16%

9%$20K+

$10-20K

$5-10K

$1-5KProjected Price Range of Future Home Purchase

19%

13%

22%

20%

12%

$200K+

$150-200K

$100-150K

$80-100K

<$80K

Respondents Likely to Purchasein Next Five Years


Latinos Prefer Spanish When Buying HomeTo Conduct Home Purchase

EitherEngishSpanish

40

35

30

25

20

15

Percent

Prefer to Work with Hispanic/Latino

Lender Representative?

24%

9%

63%

EitherNoYes

Prefer to Work with Hispanic/Latino Real Estate Agent?

17%5%

78%

EitherNoYes

1 Salinas, CA 11 Santa Barbara, CA2 Santa Cruz, CA 12 Stockton, CA3 San Francisco, CA 13 Medford, OR4 San Luis Obispo, CA 14 Merced, CA5 Santa Rosa, CA 15 Modesto, CA6 Vallejo, CA 16 Los Angeles, CA7 San Jose, CA 17 Lowell, MA-NH8 Portsmouth, NH 18 Barnstable, MA9 San Diego, CA 19 Ventura, CA

10 Oakland, CA 20 Orange Co., CA

Top Twenty Least Affordable Housing Markets

Source: National Association of Homebuilders, 1sr Quarter 2002

Source: California Employment Development Department

Housing Production vs. Net Job GrowthCalifornia

01009998979695949392919089888786858483

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

Thousands

Net Job GrowthHousing Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Housing Demand

Overall HousingUnitsSingle-Family

Housing Need

Housing DeficitCalifornia

Source: California Department of Finance

Hou

sing

Pro

duct

ion


Single Family Home SalesCalifornia, 1970 - 2001

0100

9998

9796

9594

9392

9190

8988

8786

8584

8382

8180

7978

7776

7574

7372

7170

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

Thousands


Average Single Family Median Home PriceCalifornia, 1990 - 2002

02010099989796959493929190

350

300

250

200

150

Thousands


Housing Affordability in CaliforniaPercent Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home

02010099989796959493929190898887868584

40

35

30

25

20

Percent

51%

46%

43%

40%

40%

37%

37%

33%

31%

22%

20%

20%

18%

17%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

San Bernardino

Fresno County

Sacramento

Central Valley

Stanislaus County

Merced County

Riverside County

Ventura

Los Angeles

Orange County

San Diego

San Luis Obisbo

Santa Barbara Area

San Francisco Bay Area

Santa Cruz County

Housing Affordability Index in CaliforniaPercent Who Can Afford a Median-Priced Home


Overcrowded & Substandard Rental Units In Metropolitan California, 1999


Percent ofHouseholds

Number ofHouseholds

Overcrowded ( > 1 Person/Room) 13% 505,636Severely Overcrowded ( > 1.5 Persons/Room) 4% 159,857Overcrowded Latino Households 33% 403,571Substandard Conditions 12% 492,792Severe Substandard Conditions 4% 161,110

Total Past Due California Loans1979-2002

019997959391898785838179

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

Bank Home Equity LoansAnnual Growth

0201009998979695949392919089

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Percent Annual Growth

Los Angeles MSA Median Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price

020098969492908886848280

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

MSA Median/U.S. MedianAverage

Los Angeles MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price, Income Adjusted

020098969492908886848280

2.20

2.00

1.80

1.60

1.40

1.20


San Francisco-San Jose MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price

020098969492908886848280

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8


San Francisco-San Jose MSAMedian Home Price/U.S. Median Home Price, Income Adjusted

020098969492908886848280

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2


Home Price Index/Owner’s Rent Index Los Angeles MSA

020098969492908886848280

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

RatioAverage

Home Price Index/Owner’s Rent Index San Francisco - San Jose MSA

020098969492908886848280

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

RatioAverage

Home Price Index vs. Loan/Purchase Price RatioLos Angeles PMSA

020098969492908886848280

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

Index Ratio

Home Price Index (L)Loan to Purchase Price Ratio (R)

Home Price Index vs. Loan/Purchase Price RatioS.F.- San Jose PMSA

020098969492908886848280

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

Index Ratio

Home Price Index (L)Loan to Purchase Price Ratio (R)

Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

California

Source: REIS

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Completions Absorption

Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Northern California

Source: REIS

-8,000-6,000

-4,000-2,000

0

2,0004,0006,000

8,00010,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Southern California

Source: REIS

-10,000-5,000

05,000

10,000

15,00020,00025,000

30,00035,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

1990-2002 Average Annual Rental Rate Growth

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

Los Ang

eles

San J

ose

San F

rancis

co

Orange

County

Inlan

d Empir

e

San D

iego

Oaklan

d

Source: REIS

Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Francisco

Source: REIS

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Francisco

Source: REIS

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy

1990–2005 Average Rental Rate Growth: 6.5%

Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Oakland

Source: REIS

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Oakland

Source: REIS

$550$650$750$850$950

$1,050$1,150$1,250$1,350$1,450

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Jose

Source: REIS

-3,000-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Jose

Source: REIS

$650

$850

$1,050

$1,250

$1,450

$1,650

$1,850

$2,050

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Los Angeles

Source: REIS

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Los Angeles

Source: REIS

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Orange County

Source: REIS

-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Orange County

Source: REIS

$650

$750

$850

$950

$1,050

$1,150

$1,250

$1,350

$1,450

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Inland Empire

Source: REIS

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

Inland Empire

Source: REIS

$450$500$550$600$650$700$750$800$850$900$950

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Diego

Source: REIS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005


Am

erica’s Choice F

or Apartm

ent Living

San Diego

Source: REIS

$550

$650

$750

$850

$950

$1,050

$1,150

$1,250

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Rental Rate Vacancy


sos real estate panel powerpoint presentation · san francisco san jose 550 500 450 400 350 300 250...

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