solar opportunities in africa set to blaze into the future
TRANSCRIPT
Solar Opportunities in Africa Set to Blaze into the Future
Dominic Goncalves, Research AnalystDominic Goncalves, Research Analyst
Energy and Power Systems
May 25, 2011
Today’s Presenter: Dominic Goncalves
Functional Expertise
• Particular expertise in growth process innovation, strategy, analytical research methodology and writing
- Pre-feasibility studies
- Market entry strategy analyses
- Distribution channel analyses
- Benchmarking global best practices
- Competitive intelligence and growth process strategies
Industry Expertise
� Extensive experience and long-standing client relationships with leading industry participants and key policy-
makers in the Sub-Saharan Africa renewable energy sector.
� Particular expertise in solar energy markets (SWH, PV, CSP)
� Feedstock transportation analysis
What I bring to the Team
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What I bring to the Team
• International background
• Fluent in Spanish
• Client management skills
• Strategic management and leadership skills
• Business development
• A passion for renewable energy
Career Highlights
• Written a book, published in 2002
• Market intelligence background
Education
• Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Communication Media from the University of South Africa
Dominic GoncalvesRenewable Energy
Analyst
Frost & SullivanAfricaCape Town
Focus Points
• Scope of the study
• Technology overview
• Market overview
• Legislative policies
• Industry challenges, drivers, and restraints
• Key growth opportunities
3
• Key growth opportunities
• PV
• CSP
• SWH
• Strategies for success
• Market entry options
• Concluding remarks
Solar Technology
Solar
Energy
4
Energy
Hot Topics (from the current & beyond current year)
Electricity crisis in South Africa
IRP: Need to diversify into clean energy
Incubating solar to kick start growth
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Waiting for the first PPAs for the REFIT
New building codes
Renewable Allocations in the IRP: Solar is clearly the biggest winner
Renewables in the IRP
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Source: Policy Adjusted IRP2010
Major Challenges
• Delay in implementation of legislative policies
• Delay for PPAs to be signed, and ISMO to be set up (PV and CSP)
• SWH awaiting new building codes
• Price sensitivity
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• Quality and installation issues for SWH
Major Drivers
• RE drive by government
• Upington Solar Park
• Price decrease
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• Manufacturing potential
SWH Market with New Building Code Regulations
Solar Water Heater Market Forecasts (Cumulative Units), 2010 – 2014
The dotted line represents the impact of new building
code regulations on the most likely scenario
Cum
ula
tive U
nits (
Tota
l In
sta
lled B
ase)
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Source: Frost & Sullivan, Blue IQ
Cum
ula
tive U
nits (
Tota
l In
sta
lled B
ase)
• IRP Developments
• Recent incorporation and
disaggregation
• Current allocation:
• 8.4GW of PV LFR CSP Plant
Land Requirements, PV vs. CSP
Solar Park Concept
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• 8.4GW of PV
• 1.0GW of CSP
• Land Resource
• ~46,300 soccer fields
LFR CSP Plant
Thin Film PV ~ 3X
Tower/Crystalline PV ~ 2X
CSP Trough ~ 1.5X
• Land availability
• Solar resource
• Solar Park Authority to set up infrastructure
• Run like an IDZ
Upington Solar Park
Northern Cape, South Africa
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Land earmarked for Upington Solar Park development, Northern Cape, South Africa. Source: DoE
• Component
manufacturing
and R&D hub
• Scale advantages
Upington Solar Park (Contd…)
Upington Solar Park
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Source: DoE
Conclusion
• Component manufacturing
• Installation and maintenance
• Project development
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• Upington Solar Park investment
• Solar is here to stay
Next Steps
� Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth (www.gil-global.com)
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� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
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For Additional Information
Christie Cronje
Corporate Communications
F&S Africa
(27) 21 680 3566
Vassilissa Kozoulina
Sales Manager
Energy & Power Systems
(27) 21 680 3279
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Cornelis van der Waal
Business Unit Leader
Energy & Power Systems
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Marc Goldstein
Consulting Manager
Energy & Power Systems
(27) 21 380 3565