solar industry overview – major technologies (3-4) – manufacturing process & challenges:...
TRANSCRIPT
Solar• Industry Overview
– Major technologies (3-4)– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability (3)
– Solar Value Chain (1)– Installations – residential and commercial (1-2)– Future System building and building integration (2-3)
• Industry Funding (3-5) -- follow the money!– Competitive landscape– Industry Growth
• Careers– Business Opportunities– Key players– Career paths (sample job description)– Salaries– Training Opportunities / Education seminars– What you might need
Alternative Energy Industry Overview
Solar PV Technologies
Solar Efficiency
Technological ComparisonTechnology Advantage Disadvantage
c-Si High efficiencyAbundance of material
High cost to manufacture High cost of materials
a-Si Low costAbundant and safe material
Low efficiencyDegrades with temperature increase
CIGS High efficiencyLow costBandgap tunability
Scarcity of IndiumCd is toxicReliability has not been tested
CdTe Low cost Te is scarceCd is toxic
Concentrating solar
High efficiency Low cost
Takes up a lot of roomTransmission of energy over long distances
Solar Cell Construct-Silicon Based
Monocrystalline Si Cell
Amorphous Si Cell
Amorphous Si & Microcrystalline Cell
Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing Flow
Thin Film Cell Construct• Cadmium Telluride/Cadmium Sulfide Cell• Copper Indium Selenide • Copper Indium Gallium Selenide
Thin Film Solar Cell Manufacturing Process
Resulting Structure
TCO contact
Process Step Technology Used
TCO Deposition, Front and Scribing
Active Layer Deposition
Activation
Scribing and TCO Deposition, Back
Interconnect and Encapsulation
Sputtering and Laser
Co-evaporation or Sputtering or Ink Jet Printing or Electro
deposition
Chemical Bath or PVD (Phys Vapor Dep)
Mechanical and Sputtering
Lamination
Annealing & Sulfurization or RTA
CdS Deposition
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Substrate
Active layer
Sulfurization
CdS layer
Interconnect
TF Silicon CdTe CISConversion efficiency 6-8% 8-11% <8-13%Variants a-Si CdTe Cu/In/S
a-Si/a-Si Cu/In/Sea-Si/uc-Si Cu/In/Ga/Sea/Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe
Selected manufacturers Unisolar (US) First Solar (USA) Daishowa Shell (Japan)Kaneka (Japan) Avancis (Germany)Mitsubishi (Japan) Wuerth (Germany)Sharp (Japan) Sulfurcell (Germany)Schott (Germany) Miasole (USA)Sanyo (Japan) Global Solar (USA)Sionar (Taiwan) Nanosolar (USA)Evergreen Solar/ESLR (US) Solyndra (USA)HelioSphera (Greece)Flexcell (Switzweland)CSG Solar (Germany)
Process PE-CVD Vapor transport Various
Selected Thin Film Landscape
a-Si/Thin-SiUni-Solar –MIApplied Materials –CAPower Films –IAEnergy PV –NJMV Systems –COXsunX –CAOptiSolar –CASignet Solar –CANano PV –NJMWOE Solar –OHProto Flex –CONew Solar Ventures –NMInnovalight –CANanogram –CASoltaix –CASierra Solar Power –CAEvergreen Solar/ESLR –MASencera –NC AOS SolarAmpulse
CdTeFirst Solar –OHPrimestar Solar –COAVA Solar –COSolar Fields –OHCanrom –NYAscentool –CANuvo Solar Energy –COZia Watt Solar –TXSolexant –CAXunlight 26 Solar –OHSunovia –FLNewCve –GABloo Solar –CA
CIGSGlobal Solar –AZMiasole –CAEnergy PV –NJAscent Solar –COISET –CAITN/ES –CODaystar –NYNanosolar –CAHeliovolt –TXSolo Power –CASolyndra –CARESI –NJLight Solar –NVAmpulse –TNDow Chemicals –MIStion –CA
Thin Film PV Companies in US
• Poly-Si Feedstock 10%• Ingot/Wafer Production 10%• Cell Production 25%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 30%
Wafer Based PV Value Chain
• Glass Production 20%• Cell Production (CdTe, CIS) 20%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 35%
Thin Film Based PV Value Chain
• Wacker -Germany• Hemlock –USA• LDK - China• Dow Corning - USA• MEMC -USA• REC Silicon -Norway• Tokuyama -Japan• Mitsubishi Materials -Japan• Sumitomo Titanium -Japan
Major Polysilicon Manufacturers
Si Wafer Start Up
• 1366 Technologies -MA • 21-Century Silicon - TX• 6N Silicon - ON• Advent Solar• AE Polysilicon• Blue Square Energy - MD • CaliSolar - CA• Confluence Solar - MO • ET Solar• Gamma Solar
• NorSun • Peak Sun Silicon -OR• RSI Silicon - PA•SBM Solar - CA• Senergen Devices - CA• Silicon Genesis - CA• Solar Notion • Solaicx - CA• Solar Cell Repower - Norway • SpectraWatt - OR• Wriota
Worldwide Solar Module Demand
16
1,6242,499
3,579
6,571
9,420
11,685
13,066
122
325
465
896
1,408
1,902
2,306
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Polysilicon Thin Film
Worldwide solar module demand (MW)Worldwide solar module demand (MW) Crystalline solar is projected to remain over 80% of the market for the foreseeable future
Long-term reliability & track record
Current polysilicon prices are adding significantly to production costs
Innovation and supply will bring the price of polysilicon down
Currently $1.161 per watt on average
Long-term $0.512 per watt We believe the reduction of over 2x
makes crystalline price competitive and expands the market
The key factor dictating success in this market is COST LOW COST WINS
Source: Wall Street research1 Based on 2008 estimated cost of polysilicon of $110/kg and 10.5 grams/watt 2 Based on 2012 estimated cost of polysilicon of $60/kg and 8.5 grams/watt
1,747
2,824
4,044
7,467
10,828
13,587
15,372
CAGR: 4
3.7%
No. Name Technology Country Production (MW)
1 Q-Cells Si Germany 3892 Sharp Si Japan 3633 Suntech Si China 3274 Kyocera Si Japan 2075 First Solar CdTe USA 2076 Motech Si Taiwan 1967 Sanyo Si Japan 1658 SunPower Si USA 1509 Baoding Si China 14310 SolarWorld Si Germany 140
Top 10 PV Companies (2007-2008)
Where are we going with the technology?
Highway signs
The Race to $1/ Watt-Grid Parity
Cell Technology Market Share
Case Study
• Residential Solar installation• 2000 square foot house• 3.5 KW system
Residential Solar System (Pros)
• Reduce cost of electrical power• Opportunity in remodeling, upgrade home value• Doing “my thing” in improving environment
EXAMPLE: 2000 sq ft home: approximately 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year
• Lower energy cost for the future, especially in retirement
• Tax incentives, putting tax money to good use• Possible leasing versus purchasing
Residential Solar System (Cons)• Mobile society, not stay around long enough to reap the benefits• Initial outlay of investment, SLOW ROI, 7 to 8 years to break even
point• Installation, disruption, possible additional structural needs• Solar panel failure, inverter failure• Having to periodically clean PV panels, breakage and hazard• Other problems, roof leaks, wind damage, etc.• Opportunity cost:
– Bathroom remodel plus new heater and insulation (instant ROI if sell home and WITH energy savings
– Add a bedroom plus bathroom (226 sq. ft. at $160 per) AND rent it out for $600/month net: break even ROI: 5 years.
• NEW TECHNOLOGIES: reduced cost of system, longer life, better output, balance DC to AC inverter integrated systems
Choosing a Contractor • If need a new roof: roofer/solar contractor may have an advantage
as it is VERY CLEAR who is responsible if there are roof leaks.• Get 4 quotes, make sure you are looking at the latest offerings• ISSUES: Poor quality invertors, contractor may not install what they
said they would install, undersized DC cables, and may have extra costs to connect to home AC panel/grid thus your ROI is less.
• Make sure quotes use same AC rate increase plan 5% to 9% seen in quotes, in this economy will the rate increase slow down?
• ReGrid Power, NextEnergy, PetersonDeanRoofing, too many to list
Considerations for Purchasing a System
• System size• Installation location• Warranty• Initial cost, payment outlay• Maintenance Costs• Independent system or connected to grid• PPA: if you sell your home, can you afford to get out
of the agreement?• Investment alternatives:
What is real system performance?
• What is advertised performance?• How is performance defined?• How is performance measured?• Solar profile of installation site• Weather, dirt • Shadowing, daily profile• Electrical cable lengths• Efficiency versus temperature • Inverter
Calculation of ROI, Parameters • Demographics of Usage
– Peak power requirements-Are they to be satisfied?– Average power usage
• Cost of system• Tax incentives• Actual cost of system• System operational parameters
– Efficiency– Degradation
• Power generation• Power cost• Electrical bill per today’s pricing,
– Future inflation, – Future usage increase, decrease
• System generated power cost in long term• Savings• Years to crossover point
Considerations for Long Term Operation
• System performance degradation– Solar panel efficiency– Weathering, dirt– Sunlight availability, shadowing,
• Cost of grid available power, inflation• New technology, upgrading of system
– Balancing of modules
How will new technology affect ROI?
• Implementation on current system– Power generation balancing– Anti-weathering coatings– Sunlight reflection onto panels– Solar tracking
• Electrical power storage– Addition of storage capability
Comparative Sample Calculation• Demographics
– Home with 2000 square feet• Partitioned into living quarters for one familyAnd 2 separate master bedrooms for single occupants• No air conditioning• Composite roof• Facing south west, plenty of sunlight, no shading• Plenty of roof space for solar panels
• Comparing Sharp, First Solar, BP Solar and Sunpower PV panel based installations • Simple calc, only used the expected AC savings, expected AC cost increases (at 2%
and 5% per year rate assumptions), panel degradation and net of tax rebate costs used.
• NOTE: Assumes CLEAN dust free sap free panels• CAUTION: Sales person my use 9% AC cost increases per year other inflation rate
items and not take into account panel output degradation to show 2 or 3X the savings.
• GOOD NEWS: up to 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year• These solar systems have 7 to 8 year to reach break even point and $28K to $45K
savings in 18 years (18 years is PPA life and may be the “half life” for the Silcon based panels.)
Comparative ROI Calculation
Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower
Model No. ND-198U1F ND-198U1F FS-276 BP175 SP2-210
Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe
Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon
Area used on roofSquare Feet
246 246 402 221 214
System Rating CEC AC KWh
2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9
System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148
Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626
Panel DegradationIn years
80% in 25 yrs 80% in 25 yrs 90% at 10 years, 80% at 25 years
90% at 12 years, 80% at 25 years
80% in 25 years
Degradation used in calculation 0.005 per year 0.005 per year 0.008 per year 0.005 per year 0.005 per year
OTHER MONITORING,
Buy out $13,195 at 5 years, $3,564 at 18 years/end
MONITORING PREPAID RECYCLING, MONITORING
NONE, monitoring system not included
NONE, monitoring system not included
Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150
BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years
If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18
$13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843
If 2% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18
$10,863 $36,692 $24,140 $28,767 $36,089
What you might need
• Licenses• Certifications
– Engineering– Installation
Eff. (%) Module T.coef (%P/°C) Technology c/c-ratio19.3 SunPower 315 -0.38 FZ-Si, ‘point contact’ 78%17.4 Sanyo HIP-205BAE -0.30 CZ-Si, ‘HIT’ 70%15.1 BP7190 -0.5 CZ-Si, ‘PERL’ 61%14.2 Kyocera KC200GT Only for VOC MC-Si 67%14.2 SolarWorld SW 185 Only for VOC CZ-Si 67%13.4 SolarWorld SW 225 Only for VOC MC-Si 64%13.4 Suntech STP 260S -24V/b MC-Si 63%13.3 Sharp ND-216-U1 Not givenMC-Si 63%11.0 WürthSol. 11007/80 -0.36 CIGS 55%10.4 First Solar FS-275 -0.25 CdTe 63%8.5 Sharp NA-901-WP -0.24%/C a-Si/nc-Si 70%6.3 Mitsubishi H. MA100 T2 -0.2 a-Si (1-j) 64%6.3 Uni Solar PVL-136 (-0.21) a-Si (3-j) 52%6.3 Kaneka T-SC Not givena-Si (1-j) 64%
Web Survey of “Best” Commercial PV Modules (2007-2008)
Examples of Thin Film Cells
Q-Cell
Q-CellQ-Cell
Q-Cell
Q-Cell