solar energy in tomorrow's energy mix - utility...
TRANSCRIPT
Solar energy in tomorrow's energy mix - utility perspective Jouni Tolonen / Fortum / 16.3.2016
Content
• Solar energy resources • Growth of solar power • Competitiveness • Impacts from utility perspective • Fortum and solar power
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Solar energy resource
Global horizontal irradiation (kWh/m2 per year) Source: Research Institute for Solar Energy, IEA 2013
Annual solar energy
Annual global energy consumption by humans
Global horizontal irradiation
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Annual solar PV market 2006-19 (installations)
Source: Global market outlook for solar power 2015-19 (SolarPower Europe, 6/2015)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Annu
al m
arke
t (G
Wp)
Forecast
Other
Australia
India
Japan
USA
China
R. of Europe
Spain
France
UK
Italy
Germany
• China will stay the biggest market, Japan boom still continues, USA growing steadily. UK the biggest European market 2014-15.
• European market share has decreased from 75% in 2011 to about 15% in 2015
• India is likely to be the second largest market after China by 2017, Japan and USA will have uncertainty after changes in subsidies
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Solar power affects power prices
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PV module spot market price decreased by 80% during 2009-12
Sources: Photon International, PV magazine
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0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
PV m
odul
e pr
ice
(eur
o/W
p)
German spot market price for PV modules
Factory gate c-Si Mono c-Si Multi c-Si a-Si CdTe
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Historical learning rate for PV modules is about 20%
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic, 2014 results (April 2015)
Every time the global cumulative PV capacity has doubled, module price has reduced by 20%
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German PV rooftop system (< 10 kWp) price development
Data source: German Solar Industry Association (BSW)
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PV y
stem
pric
e (E
UR
/W)
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PV LCOE in Europe for a commercial 50 kWp system (w/o VAT)
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
PV L
COE
(€/M
Wh)
for 5
0 kW
p
AdditionalCAPEX with 6%real WACC
AdditionalCAPEX with 4%real WACC
AdditionalCAPEX with 2%real WACC
CAPEX with 0%real WACC
OPEX
London/ Stockholm/ Helsinki
Toulouse Malaga Munich Rome
Operational expenditure, 20 €/kWp per a Capital expenditure, 1280 €/kWp in 2015 Market growth, 10% CAGR 2020-2030 Learning rate, 20%
Exchange rate, 1.33 USD/€ Module efficiency improvement, 0.4%-points/a Module degradation, 0.5%/a System lifetime, 30a
Impacts of solar energy from utility perspective
• Huge potential for organic growth • Solar power is getting more and more competitive and will be among the winning
technologies • Impacts on merit order and power market • Consumers become producers
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Transition towards Solar Economy is ongoing
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Fortum – Forerunner in clean energy
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Fortum – business in solar energy
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• Fortum buys back surplus energy from solar energy systems • Price is linked to NordPool spot-price – Fortum commission • Remote readable and hourly measurement based energy meter is required
• Launched 2012 in FIN and SWE, extended to NOR • Fortum as interface to the customer and system integrator of turn-key solutions
• Fortum targets a gigawatt-scale solar and wind portfolio • In June 2013, Fortum acquired a 5.4 MWp solar power plant in India • In December 2014, first greenfield power plant in India, 12 MWp in size • In January 2016, Fortum won a reverse auction for the 70 MW project with a
fixed tariff of 4.34 INR/kWh (about 60 EUR/MWh) for 25 years
Solar kits for residential customers B2C
Buyback of surplus production
Energy producer with large scale solar energy farms
Solar solutions for commercial customers B2B
• > 20 kWp tailored systems for commercial customers in FIN, SWE and NOR • Fortum offers turnkey solutions according to facility specs and customer needs • Supply and installations in cooperation with trusted partners
