solar energy in the garden city - wordpress.com · 2017-05-20 · solar energy in the garden city....
TRANSCRIPT
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
1
Solar Energy in the Garden City
Eddy BlokkenBusiness Development ManagerSolar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS)National University of Singapore (NUS)
Science in the CaféMay 24, 2017
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
1
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
2
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
3
Agenda
Brief introduction to SERIS
Basics on photovoltaics (PV)
Global technology and market developments
Case Study: Singapore
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
4
Founded in 2008; focuses on applied solar energy research
Part of the National University of Singapore (NUS)
Rapid growth (now > 200 people and > 6000 m2 of space)
State-of-the-art laboratories R&D focus is on solar cells, PV
modules and PV systems Specialised in professional services
for the PV industry ISO 9001 & ISO 17025* certified
(* PV Module Testing Lab)
SERISSolar Energy Research Institute of Singapore
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
5
Main R&D areas of SERIS
Solar cells: Silicon wafer solar
cells (various cell architectures)
Tandem solar cells on silicon (e.g. GaAs, perovskites)
Characterisation & simulation
PV systems: PV system technology PV system monitoring Quality assurance of
PV systems (incl. simulations)
Solar potential & energy meteorology
PV grid integration
PV modules: Module development Module testing
(indoor & outdoor) Module certification Characterisation and
simulation
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
6
Agenda
Brief introduction to SERIS
Basics on photovoltaics (PV)
Global technology and market developments
Case Study: Singapore
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
7
Renewable Energy
Tidal & Wave
Energy
Biomass & Pellets
Bio-fuel
WindPhotovoltaicsSolar Thermal
Solar Energy
Geo-thermal
Small Hydro-power
Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly. …and others
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
8
Solar Energy
Sun => Heat (=> Steam => Turbine => Generator => Electricity)
Sun => Electricity
Classic ElectricityGeneration: replace oil, nuclear, gas, coal by sun
Same technology that enables internet &iPhone
-> semiconductors
Solar Thermal Photovoltaics
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
9
-
+
front contact
rear contact
photon absorber,p-silicon
n-silicon contact- + junction
antireflective coating
+-
How does photovoltaics work?
Si
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
10
Modular build-up of a PV system
• Cells are extremely breakable and moisture sensitive• Modules encapsulate cells to give mechanical strength,
protection from moisture and still allow maximal light to the cell• Modules are building blocks for larger systems, allowing the
same product used from small rooftops to utility scale systems
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
11
(feed-in tariff)
Solar System: Residential
Small residential systems:• Inverter transforms DC to AC and synchronizes with the grid• Feed-in tariff: all electricity generated sold to grid• Net metering: grid functions as super-efficient battery• Alternatively: install batteries to increase self-usage
(net metering)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
12
Solar System: Utility scale
Utility scale systems:• Largest grid connected system today 850MWp (Cn - completed 2017)• Fixed, single axis or double axis systems• CPV (concentrated PV) has to be on double axis tracker & cloudless
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
13
Energy Flow
The Grid
The electricity grid:• In the past hierarchical
system with big sources and many sinks
• With renewable energy distributed generation is possible
• With renewable energy intermittence needs to be managed
Energy Flow
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
14
Smart grids – management of intermittence
PV generation
Matching demand andgeneration: Demand side management Control of electricity
generation from solar,wind, co-generation, etc.
Forecasting of: Electricity demand Electricity generation from
renewables(“energy meteorology”)
Basic grid equation : energy generation = energy need (load)
load
Non-PVgeneration
DSM
DSM: Demand Side Management
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
15
Smart gridsMerging of different power sources (German case study)
source: www.solarserver.de/solarmagazin/anlagejanuar2008_e.html
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
16
After IoT will we have PVoT?Will transparent solar power our world?
Technology exists….
..but• Most applications have not
enough surface• transparency = low output• technology unstable• RoI not feasible yet
Maybe in 10 or 20 years?
(Sunpartner)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
17
Agenda
Brief introduction to SERIS
Basics on photovoltaics (PV)
Global technology and market developments
Case Study: Singapore
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
18
Photovoltaic electricity generationPhotovoltaics (PV): Direct conversion of solar energy to
electrical energy via solar cells
Advantages: Clean energy, energy payback
between 1 and 2 years Uses an inexhaustible
renewable energy source Modular (from mW to GW) Very low safety risks Reliable; low maintenance Also suited for developing
countries
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
19
Market shares of PV technologies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
PV Technology share (Relative)
Multi-Si (p-type)
Mono-Si (p-type)
Mono-Si (n-type)
Thin Film (CIGS & CdTe)
Others
Ref.: F., Data from Navigant Consulting 2008 report (1980-1998), March issues of Photon Ivan Mierlonternational (199
40 30 20 10 0 10 20
199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015
Total Market Installed (GW)
Multi-Si (p-type)Mono-Si (p-type)Mono-Si (n-type)Thin Film (CIGS & CdTe)Others
Source: technology: Ref.: F., Data from Navigant Consulting 2008 report (1980-1998), March issues of Photon Ivan Mierlonternational (1999-2009), IHS Q4-2 Capacity: IEA - PVPS - assumption: utilisation over all technologies is equivalent
PV Technology Share (Absolute -GW)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
20
Other Photovoltaic Technologies• III-V: i.e. GaAs – developed technology, but too expensive for
mainstream market, applicable for space and military• a-Si thin film: efficiency too low and CAPEX too high for current
market situation. Had flash life when poly-Si was 20x more expensive than today
• Organic PV: lending technology from organic electronics and OLED. Still exploring why it works… (>5y)
• Perovskites: inorganic, toxic, unstable, dissolves in water, … but record efficiency increases (>10y, probably in tandem cells)
• Dye-sensitized: inorganic, and pushed out by perovskites (ever?)
• Quantum dot cells: still explorative, production cost and repeatability(>>10y)
• Tandem cells/modules: multi-junction cells handle each a part of spectrum. Could move modules in to efficiencies of >30%! (>10y)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
21
Other Photovoltaic Technologies
Multi silicon Si wafer: 21.9%Thin Film (CdTe & CIGS): 22%Mono silicon wafer homojunction cells: 25%Mono silicon wafer heterojunction cells: 26%
But all on sub-industrial size!
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
22
Photovoltaic market The progress with the deploy-
ment of PV is breathtaking
PV poised to become a major source of global energy
2016 was the best year ever for PV (75 GWp added)
Cumulative PV installations beyond 300 GWp in 2016
In 2020, PV production rate will be close to100 GWp/a
Lots of room for ongoing technical innovations across the entire PV value chain (from materials to systems)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ANN
UAL P
V IN
STAL
LATI
ON
S (G
W/A
)
50%/a
15%/a
1TW/a
Source: IEA/PVPS
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
23
Asia-Pacific is the global growth market
Source: IEA
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
24
The “price-learning curve” of PV
Source: Navigant Consulting, EuPD, IHS, pvXchange. Graph: PSE AG 2014
Mod
ule
pric
e(in
flatio
n ad
just
ed €
2013
/Wp)
Learning rate in PV industry (since 1980): Each time the cumu-lative production doubled, the PV module price (in $/Wp) went down by 20%
Cumulative production (GWp)
Swanson's law
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
25
Efficiency brings cost down fastest
Source: Trina Solar, 2013
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
26
Data source: IEA PVPS Trends 2016 in Photovoltaic Applications
Overview of global policy frameworksFeed-in Tariff (FiT) is the dominant market incentives and enablers
(Singapore)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
27
Agenda
Brief introduction to SERIS
Basics on photovoltaics (PV)
Global technology and market developments
Case Study: Singapore
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
28
Renewable energy potential in S’pore
no major river system, calm sea, no big height difference
waste-to-energy plants already exploited
no significantwind resources (average ~ 2 m/s)
?
?
?
?
?
limited land to pursue large-scale bio-energy
low prospectforgeothermal
PV most promising…
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
29
Renewable energy potential in S’poreThe potential of most renewable energies in Singapore is limited: Hydropower is not feasible as SG lacks a major river system Wind energy is not feasible as SG does not have good wind
resources (average wind speed is < 2 m/s) Large-scale bioenergy is unfeasible due to the scarcity and high
cost of land The prospects for geothermal are low The sea surrounding SG is too calm to give much benefits from
wave or tidal power
However: Singapore receives lots of solar energy throughout the year
(~1630 kWh per m2 per year, or, equivalently, one barrel of oil per m2 per year)
Typical solar power during daytime (10 am - 4 pm): ~500 MW per km2 or, equivalently, 350 GW for the main island of SG (~700 km2)
For comparison: SG’s electric grid has a peak demand of 6.940 MW
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
30
Solar PV 2016 in Singapore
Data source: EMA
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
31
Singapore is space restricted……but this has never stopped us!
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
32
Floating PV SystemsWorld’s largest floating solar PV test-bedTotal capacity: 1MWpNo. of floating systems: 10Water surface covered by PV: 11,000m2Grid connected since: January 2017Owner: PUBOperated by: SERIS/NUSAn initiative from: EDB SingaporeAnnual expected output: 1,286,000 kWh/a
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
33
Floating PV Systems
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
34
Floating PV SystemsYoutube: search “floating seris”
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
35
Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Total life cycle cost
Total lifetime energy productionLCOE* =
Up-frontinvestment
Irradiance(kwh/m2) x
*net present value figure, all input factors are annually discounted by the project hurdle rate (e.g. average weighted cost of capital)
+ O&M +Loan
Payment +/- Tax +/-Residual
value+ Insurance
-Annual degra-
dation rateInitial energy yield
(kWh/kWp)Performance
Ratio (%) =
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
36
System size: 1 MWp, System price: 1,300 SGD/kWp
Total investment: SGD ~1.3 million (of which equity ~0.5 million) 60% debt finance, 2% over risk-free rate, 10 years at 4% 10% equity cost, 17% tax rate, 6% discount rate 80% performance ratio, average irradiance of ~1,608 kWh/m2 (P75) First year energy yield: ~1,286 kWh/kWp
1.0% degradation rate p.a., 20 years operational life 0.3% insurance cost p.a. (in % of total investment cost) Cost inflation 2% p.a. Annual operating and maintenance expense: 10 SGD/kWp
Inverter warranty extension cost at 25%, 45% and 60% of prevailing inverter price factored in every 5th year, respectively (increasing with the average age of the inverters)
LCOE = 10.9 SGD cents per kWh (pre-tax)
Example: 1MWp industrial roof
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
37
LCOE Sensitivity analysisMost critical LCOE parameters are discount rate and durability
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
38
SERIS’ meteorological stations networkExpansion of spatial resolution is envisioned
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
39
Meteorological measurement inputsExample of SERIS’ remote meteorological station
Ambient temperature/humidity
Air pressure
Global/diffuse irradiance (pyranometer)
Wind speed/direction
Global irradiance (silicon sensor)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
40
SERIS’ live solar irradiance mapAvailable at www.solar-repository.sg
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
41
SERIS’ sky camera network8 cameras already deployed for cloud motion purposes
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
42
Future potential? Solar Photovoltaic Roadmap
published in 2014 by Singapore Government (drafted by SERIS)
Projecting growing PV installations from currently 130 MW to several GW within the next 13 years.
Two scenarios: Baseline scenario Accelerated scenario Singapore SportsHub -
~700 kW of PV (2014)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
43
Possible cumulative installed capacity Maximum capacity, given the assessed inland space.
Licensed conventional generation capacity, Singapore Jan 2017: 128 GW
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
44
Possible PV electricity contribution to Singapore’s electricity demand in 2050, 6 scenarios
E1110 TWh
E280 TWh
E350 TWh
BAS 6% 9% 14%
ACC 14% 19% 30%
Assumed energy scenarios for 2050: E1: Energy demand growing at a constant rate of 2.5% p.a.,
proportional to expected long-term average GDP growth(110 TWh by 2050)
E2: Energy consumption under additional energy efficiency measures (80 TWh)
E3: Energy demand following strong energy efficiency efforts (50 TWh, i.e. electricity demand remains constant until 2050)
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
45
Future cost of solar electricityResults from LCOE calculations (levelised cost of electricity)
PV grid integration adds to this cost and has to be assessed separately, using a combination of: Forecasting of PV power output Grid codes for PV grid integration Load management Storage solutions Increasing fast-reacting reserves Grid enhancements
Future LCOE of solar PV electricity in Singaporein [SGD-cents/kWh], with 4%1 cost of capital
Year 2012 2020 2030 2050BAS 19 12 10 8ACC 19 11 8 7
1) Cost of capital for Singapore government agencies
11
Today already less than 10.9 SGD-cents/kWh
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
46
The future is bright for PV in Singaporeand SE Asia…
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
47
Information on PV in Singapore- National Solar Repository
www.solar-repository.sgInformation on specific PV systems, irradiation forecasting in Singapore, market evolutions and best practice
- Singapore Solar Photovoltaic Roadmapwww.nccs.gov.sg/sites/nccs/files/Roadmap_Solar_20140729.pdf
Roadmap from Singapore government on how solar should evolve in Singapore. Views on market size up to 30% of electricity need, technology advancements needed to implement this view, and impact on LCOE
- Youtube: search “floating seris”
SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).
48
Thank you for your attention!
More information at www.seris.sg