“Soft”/”Hard” ComplementarityCurrent Work and Initial Perspectives

EPSRC NetworkMeeting 1

Mar 01

Topics for discussion

MoD’s Modelling and Simulation Strategy for Analysis

Some personal perspectives from the “Unconventional Analysis” Workshop held last Oct

Current work and issues

MoD M&S Strategy for Analysis

MoD M&S Strategy for Analysis: Overview

Version 2 now available

– Written by CDA on behalf of MoD stakeholder community

– Copies can be made available

Contains four Thrust Areas:

– 1. Flexible analysis techniques

– 2. Functionality focus areas - C2 and logistics/sustainability

– 3. Improving the quality and integrity of the analytical process

– 4. Making the best use of technology developments

Updated Strategy: Key Tenets

A UK MoD Modelling and Simulation Strategy for Analysis

– Used to drive strategies and implementation plans in individual areas

– Not just for CDA/DERA but for all analysis done on MoD’s behalf

Builds on the previous (1997) version

Less model-centric

– Analyst at least as important as the software

– Principles should apply equally to all OA techniques

Embraces work on role of Synthetic Environments in OA

Thrust 1: Flexible Analysis Techniques

Critical Principles

Delivery of “faster, better, cheaper” analysis

– but still of an appropriate quality

Transition from perception that analyst’s role is

Running the model…to

…supporting the decision (maker)

using analytical techniques

as appropriate to assist

Thrust 3: Improving the quality and integrity of the analytical process

Critical Principles

Crucial element is fitness for purpose (FFP)

– Determine if something is valid in the context of what it is being used for

FFP embraces ideas from Verification, Validation and

Accreditation

An ability to prove FFP in a timely fashion and at commensurate

cost is also essential

Relies on assessment of Methodology, User, Data, Review,

(Concept)

Thrust 4: Making best use of technology development

Critical Principles

Capture current practice and capabilities

Maintain an awareness of likely relevant changes in

technology that could be used to support analysis

Provide guidance on best practice and changes to best

practice arising from technology opportunities

Some Personal Perspectives from the Unconventional Analysis Seminar

Perspectives (1)

Knowledge of the social processes into which the OR is being fed is vital

This particularly influences "new" methods but applies generally to OR

The hard/soft divide and the debate it engenders is both unhelpful and potentially divisive

– Spectrum vs Quantisation ?

– Techniques such as MCDA crystallise the debate

• They are hard to really soft modellers but soft to really hard modellers !

Perspectives (2)

Judgements are necessary in all OR and must be made by appropriately qualified and/or empowered individuals.

Analysts need to be aware of all OR techniques

– This needs to be better facilitated by the OR community

– Also demands a willingness to embrace newer methods as appropriate but

equally not to ignore the "classical" OR methods that still have much to offer

There is strength in (managed) diversity

– Back towards our original multi-disciplinary roots ?!

SummaryCurrent Work and Issues

Current work

– Ideas flowing from MoD M&S Strategy• Work on fitness for purpose across all M&S• Work on best practice capture and promulgation

– Method Logbooks, building on previous work on model validation logbooks

Issues

– What can “Soft” learn from “Hard” ?

– What can “Hard” learn from “Soft” ?

– How can we use them together to best effect ?

– How can we escape the divisive nature of such terminology in future ?

Underlying Principle 1Using Models of an Appropriate Level

of Complexity

The analytical approach must be simple enough to be understandable, yet able to represent adequately the key features of the problem under consideration

It has long been understood by Operational Analysts that, in dealing with complicated situations, simple models that provide useful insights are often to be preferred to models that get so close to the real world that the mysteries they intend to unravel are repeated in the model and remain mysteries. (The Lanchester Legacy, Vol III Chapter 9 (Bowen, McNaught))

Put another way...

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”

….Albert Einstein