Soda Ash Industry Global Overview2014-15Soda Ash Industry Global Overview2014-15

Global Chemical Industry shift from Developed economies to Developing economies

Asia Pacific (including China) to gain from this shift

Complexities in China to help India becoming a manufacturing hub.

Soda Ash : Global Demand – Supply (2014)

North America Capacity 12.50Prod. 12.00Demand 5.30

South America Capacity 0.200Production 0.150Demand 2.700

Africa Capacity 1.16Production 0.80Demand 1.20

CIS (Russia & Ukraine)Capacity 4.70Production 4.00Demand 3.50

AustraliaCapacity 0.35Production 0.00Demand 0.50

China Capacity 32.00Production 26.00Demand 24.00

India Capacity 3.00Production 2.50Demand 2.75

Middle EastCapacity 0.700Production 0.500Demand 1.700

EuropeCapacity 12.00Production 11.00Demand 10.50

Indian Soda Ash Manufacturing - Facilities

END USE Consumption Pattern – Global Vs India

Growth Projection India – Soda Ash Consumers

Global Overview

China • Total capacity touches 32 Million Tons which is 10 times of India's soda ash

production capacity.• Production around 25 Mil Mt . Cap Utilisation 77/78%• Despite excess glass capacity in China the capacity build up continues, a total of 245

flat glass lines operating in China, where there are only 7 in India.• With the slow down in Chinese Economy there is a marginal softening of prices.• Remains the major threat for India .

US / North America ( Natural Soda Ash )• Production reaches 11.5 Million MT . Domestic demand grows by only 1% • Exports grow by 5% mainly to Asia & South America .• The US producers ie. Tata/ Nirma have diverted some volumes to India in current

year • Natural SA has a huge cost advantage over the conventional process making the US

producers competitive globally.

Europe• Total capacity is 12 MMT produced in 25 plants in 15 countries including Turkey.• IHS forecasts that after a 0.4% decline in 2013, Euro-zone real GDP will increase

1.1% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.• Cost pressures forced Soda Ash plants in UK/Portugal to closure.• European producers viz Ciech / Solvay increase export volumes to India as they

attract the lowest ADD. • Turkey with Natural Soda Ash reserves will be a threat to the rest of the

producing countries on account of their cost advantage & location

AFRICA, ASIA & MIDDLE EAST • TCL has shutdown their Pure Soda Ash plant at Magadi (Capacity 3.5 Lac

MT/annum) due to unsustainable operational cost. • Penrice permanently closed its Soda Ash production facility in Australia.• Asia led by India is the only area showing growth signs .

Global – Overview

INDIA 2013-14 INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS• While Domestic Demand in 2013-14 has been flat, growth of 5/6% expected in 2014-15 & + 5% growth predicted going forward.

• Domestic consumption is approximately 3.1 Million MT ( 2.7 MMT market demand + 0.4 MMt internal ).

• With a production of only around 2.6 MMT, balance demand met by Imports.• China/ US / Europe / Kenya are the major exporters to India , major growth

in India is captured by Imports .• Flat Glass prices improve as Glass manufacturers get ADD protection on

ME / Saudi /Pakistan.• Ghari has announced a Soda Ash plant at Village Kuranga – Dwarka .

( Likely to take between 3 to 4 years )• Nirma & GHCL also examining expansion .• Anti Dumping Duties will be applicable till Mid 2017 hence we have to

work our over-all costs to remain competitive going forward .

India - Overview

END SECTOR MACRO INDICATOS & PLAYERS : -Mix of Global, National and Regional Players : Fragmented Market.

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