Social-economic Differentials of the Dying Risk of the oldest-old Chinese 1998-2002

Liu, Guiping

Max-Planck-Institute for Demographic Research

Summary • 1. Briefing the existing studies • 2. A simple framework• 3. Data and method • 4. Variables and descriptive statistics• 5. Statistical outcomes• 6. Main findings• 7. Brief discussion

1.Briefing the existing studies

• 1. Kannisto (1994) reported the differentials of mortality at high ages in developed countries. No social economic factors were involved.

• 2. Martelin, Koskinen, Valkonen (1998): the dying risk of the oldest-old Finish is significantly associated with income level, educational attainment, occupational experience,marital status, residential place,linguistic attachment.

• 3. The similar researches in developing countries are rare.

2.A simple framework

•

3. Data and method

• Data: the second wave of Chines Healthy Longevity Survey 2000– Starting time of the observation:1998 base-line

survey

• Method: Cox Proportional Hazard Model

4.Variables

• Variables:– age group, sex , place of birth,ethnicity;– years of education, number of children ever

born; number of biological siblings, birth orders, main occupation before age 60;

– marital status, living arrangement, main source of financial support,

– self-rated health status.

5. The descriptive statistics • Majority of the oldest-old were born in countryside;

• Hans account for major proportion of the interviewees;

• A few people received education longer than seven years;

• Fifty percent of the interviewees were farm labors before age 60;

• Eighty percent of the interviewees were taken care by children, grand-children, or children-in-law when they were ill;

• Eighty-four percent of the oldest-old are living with household members;

• Sixty-five percent of the oldest-old depended on their children financially.

6. Statistical outcomes (1)

• Age group relative risk of dying– 80-84(ref.) 1.00– 85-89 1.27*– 90-94 1.73*– 95-99 2.27*– 100-101 2.74*– 102-105 2.82*– 106 and older 3.04*

6. Statistical outcomes (2)

• sex relative risk of dying– Male （ ref.) 1.00– Female 0.81*

6. Statistical outcomes (3) •

• place of birth relative risk of dying– urban areas （ ref.) 1.00– rural areas 1.11*

• ethnicity – Hans (ref.) 1.00– minority groups 0.84*

6. Statistical outcomes (4)

• Marital status relative risk of dying– married, living with spouses （ Ref.) 1.00– separated or divorced 1.27– widowed 1.41*– never married 1.10

6. Statistical outcomes (5)

• Years of education relative risk– 0 year (ref.) 1.00 – 1-6 years 0.90*– 7 years or more 0.92

6. Statistical outcomes (6)• Main occupation before age 60 relative risk

– professional & technical personnel （ ref.) 1.00– governments, management 1.26– farm labors, forest, husbandry,fishery workers 1.34*– manufacture workers 1.42*– commercial or services workers 1.48*– househusband or housewife 1.54*– other 1.61*

6. Statistical outcomes (7) • Main source of financial support relative risk

– retirement pension （ ref. 1.00– spouse 1.08– children 0.97– grand-children 1.06– other relative 1.00– local governments or community 0.94– still on work 0.50*– others 1.17

6. Statistical outcomes (8) • No.of biological siblings relative risk

– 0 （ ref. ） 1.00– 1 0.95– 2 0.93– 3 0.95– 4 0.91– 5 0.84*– 6 or more 0.82*

6. Statistical outcomes (9)

• Birth order  relative risk– 1st （ ref. ） 1.00– 2nd 0.98– 3rd 0.98– 4th 0.80*– 5th 0.91– 6th or higher 0.92

6. Statistical outcomes (10)

• Self-rated health status relative risk of dying– very good （ ref. ） 1.00– good 1.15*– so-so 1.45*– poor or very poor 1.98*– not able to answer 2.38*

7. Main findings • Social economic statuses are associated with

mortality of the oldest-old Chinese;• Lower social status, e.g, born in rural areas;

manual workers, expose to higher risk of dying than do professionals and technicians;

• The widowed expose to high risk of dying;• Having more siblings indicate a lower risk of

dying;

7.Main findings (continued)

• Those persons who were in birth order four show lower risk of dying, but we have no solid theory to explain the result;

• We did not find living arrangement, residential place, are associated with the dying risk of the oldest-old Chinese.

8. Discussion

• Our study is based on the following background: – 1. The oldest-old is a highly selective groups;– 2. The length of the observation is around 24

months; – 3. A common statistical method is applied.

• Our study suggests that the early events in human life course have impacts on survival probability at age 80 and over.