smmt new car co 2 report 9 march 2010. contents average new car co 2 performance total new car co 2...
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Contents
• Average new car CO2 performance
• Total new car CO2 emissions
• Impact on 2009 new car CO2 performance
• Scrappage Incentive Scheme• 2009 CO2 performance trends
• Outlook for UK new car CO2 emissions
UK new car CO2 emissions• Continuous improvement, to new low of 149.5g/km
• 5.4% improvement on 2008 and 21.2% on 1997
UK average new car CO2 emissions (Source SMMT)
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
CO
2 g
/km
Total car CO2 emissions
• Data to 2008 shows recent reduction in overall car emissions
• Impact of improved technology, as well as recession
Growth in car CO2 emissions, fuel use, parc and distance travelled (Source DECC, DFT ,SMMT)
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0895
100
105
110
115
120
CO2 emissions
Fuel used
Parc
Distance travelled
1997 =
100
Impact on 2009 performance
• Improved technology – more choice of lower emitters
• Recession – curbed demand for high emitters
• Scrappage incentive scheme
• Fuel prices – higher, encourages efficiency
• Government policy, notably taxation
• Consumer information – e.g. colour coded fuel label
• Consumer preference – shift to mini/supermini segment
Scrappage Incentive Scheme• Strong take up, registrations largely mini/superminis
• SIS cars lower than average CO2 emissions, at 133.3g/km
CO2 emissions of car through SIS, total market and scrapped car (Source SMMT)
SIS cars Average new car Scrapped car0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
133.3
147.8
182.3
CO
2 g
/km
Change in emissions by segment
• All segments seen improvements
• Mini best gain in year, -6.7%. MPVs best versus 1997, -28.6%
Change in new car CO2 emissions by segment, 2009 versus ‘08 and ’97 (Source SMMT)M
ini
Supe
rmin
i
Low
er m
ediu
m
Uppe
r med
ium
Exec
utive
Luxu
ry sa
loon
Spec
ialis
t spo
rts
Dual
pur
pose
4x4
MPV
Tota
l
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
vs '08 vs '97
% c
hange
Distribution of CO2 emissions
• Continuous shift to the left, into lower emitting models
• 20% market sub 120g/km, and 47% sub 140g/km
Distribution of the new car market by 5g/km CO2 bands (Source SMMT)
<= 1
00 110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2009 2008 1997
Share
of
tota
l
Distribution by VED
• Move to lower VED bands, E (131-140g/km) most popular
• Bands K-M (225g/km +) share now 5.8%, was 28.1% in ‘97
Distribution of the new car market by VED bands (Source SMMT)
1997
2000
2008
2009
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A B C D E F G H I J K L M
Outlook for new car CO2 emissions
• New car CO2 regulation – 130g/km by 2015 in EU
• Industry action, government measures, consumer sentiment
NAIGT technology road map (Source NAIGT)
Conclusions
• Further significant progress being made.• Net impact on reducing total CO2 emissions.
• Short term - progress may be tempered by economic recovery and removal of the SIS.
• Long term - VM response to regulation, national government measures and changing consumer sentiment to lower emissions.
• Integrated approach – industry (vehicle and fuel suppliers), government, and consumers to pull together for change. Automotive Council set up to aid process.
• Stability and predictability in taxation/regulation desired.• Report does also introduce van CO2 emissions.