smes’ participation in global and regional value chains ... abonyi.pdf · understanding of...
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SMEs’ Participation in Global and Regional Value Chains: Greater Mekong Subregion
Workshop on International Trade Finance, Logistics and Business Development UMFCCI, Yangon, Myanmar 27-29 November 2015
George Abonyi
Visiting Professor
Department of Public Administration and Executive Education Program
Maxwell School, Syracuse University
28 November 2015
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Overview of “the story”
Challenge
• Expanding GMS SME exports to regional and global markets
• Overcoming barriers to SME internationalization (supply side)
• Exporting in slow-growth global and regional economy (demand side)
Opportunity
• Regional and global export markets for long-term growth – but with a difference
• Growing Asian emerging markets: for now mostly at lower end of income scale
• Slow developed economies: continuing importance, but more difficult markets
Response
• Expanding GMS SME exports to regional and global markets on 3 tracks
• Exporting existing (final) products/services
• Innovating for Asian emerging markets and beyond
• Promoting SME suppliers in global (regional) value chains (GVC)
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CHALLENGE (1)
•Overcoming barriers to SME internationalization
(supply side perspective)
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Benefits of SME Internationalization
Supports growth in revenues, size, and market share
Exposes firm to international best
practice
Facilitates adding value through
product, process, and business
model innovation
Employment generation
Strengthens productivity
Improves overall competitiveness
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Why not: significant barriers to
SME Internationalization
e.g. SME export share of 5 ASEAN economies around 23%
Source: Abonyi (ERIA, 2015)
Internal barriers: relate to
firm-level capability and
resource constraints • Seen as most important, e.g. mind
set, information, finance, skills
External barriers: relate to
business environment both
national and international • E.g. general domestic SME-related
business environment, logistics,
clustering, trade facilitation
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CHALLENGE (2)
•Internationalization in slow-growth and
uncertain global and regional economies
(demand side perspective)
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Market challenge – where will global demand
for GVCs come from: “New normal” and
“greater divergence” in the global economy Source: IMF WEO, October 2015; October 2008
Slow-growth global economy esp. developed economies; also slowing but
relatively faster growth in Asian emerging economies
• Especially ASEAN, China, India (ACI)
And political uncertainty of economic management (e.g. EU, China) Note: IMF has continually overestimated growth since 2009
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Developed economies and China markets: slow, uncertain
. For regional (East Asian) value chains:
- Developed economies: primary final market
- China: intermediate market – key role in GVCs
Developed economies (particularly US)
driving region’s growth as final markets • Intra-ASEAN trade is less than 25% of its total trade
Developed markets’ slow uncertain growth
Source: Lim and Lim (2012)
• China has imported 50% of all intra-
regional intermediate exports (parts,
components); but for final export to
developed economies economies, e.g.
iPhones to US and EU (source: ADB, 2011)
• China: rebalancing and extended slow growth
• From high (national) savings and related
investment- and export-driven model;
to domestic consumption driven growth
• Challenge of “political economy”
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China’s investment-driven growth:
increasing debt, declining efficiency,
most new debt is to service old debt
China’s increasing debt and composition –
mostly SOEs and local government • Nearly 50% related to real estate
China’s Debt to GDP ratio
Source: MGI (2015)
Growing non-productive overinvestment:
i.e. declining efficiency of investment
(Marginal Product of Capital) Source: Ha Jiming, Goldman Sachs China (2015)
S
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Key Chinese activity indicators
Nearly every industry is at 30% or more overcapacity
• Average accounts receivable for consumer
electronics retailers/manufacturers:123 days
• Average days of inventory for clothing companies:
174 days (Bloomberg 2015)
Source: Haver Analytics, in Financial Times, 19 Aug. 2015
China’s import growth (by
volume) has declined
significantly
Source: OECD, 16 Sept. 2015
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China market challenge
China’s rebalancing from investment to consumption-driven growth even if
smoothly successful, will mean extended slow growth; AND does not
automatically translate into increased imports of final manufactures
China as market for final goods is shaped not by size or growth of GDP,
but capacity to generate net demand for import of final manufactures
• China has been major importer of (South) East Asia’s exports of parts and components; but for its
final exports to developed economies, e.g. iPhones to US and EU
To become a growth locomotive for manufactures of the region (e.g. GMS)
China would need to raise not only its domestic consumption as a share of
GDP, but also its imports of final goods from the region
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OPPORTUNITY
•Continuing key role of developed markets, but more difficult and uncertain
•Asian emerging markets present great opportunities for long term growth •But in coming years mostly at lower end of the income scale, with “local constraints”
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The future of the region is bright Source: Australian Government White Paper (2012)
Asia’s rising share of global GDP Asia’s rising incomes (Bubble area
reflects size of GDP; income per person in PPP)
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Future of ASEAN is bright Source: Euromonitor International (2015)
Economy
Market
Youth
$
• If ASEAN were a single economy it would be the 7th largest in the world; and could be the 3rd largest by 2030
• With 622 million people, ASEAN’s potential market size is larger than EU (502 million) and North America (354 million)
• With median age of 28.8 years in 2014, ASEAN’s population is younger than EU’s (42.1), China’s (40.8) and North America (38)
• Total consumer expenditure is expected to grow by 108% in real terms across ASEAN, 2015 - 2030
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ASEAN consumer expenditure is
increasing…but unevenly Source: Euromonitor International (2015)
ASEAN’s Real GDP Growth and Total
Consumer Expenditure: 2000 – 2014 • Averaged 5.4% p.a.; expanded by 117% in real
terms to reach $1.4 trillion in 2014
By 2030 ASEAN to be the 3rd largest
economy, after US and China, worth $3.1
trillion in constant 2014 dollars
Consumer Expenditure per
Household in ASEAN:
2014 and 2030
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Asian emerging markets and
consumers are different
But significantly lower disposable incomes in AEC in coming years as compared with developed
economies, region’s traditional final markets (source: Lawrence, ADBI (2013))
Fragmented markets,
growing income inequality,
and high proportion of
rural population will condition
consumer spending
Per Capita Real Annual Gross Income
in China and USA (1990–2030)
Reflects consumers’ purchasing power
In 2030: narrower, but US still 4.6 x China
Source: Euromonitor International (2014)
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Consumer is at the centre of
understanding market potential Source: Euromonitor International (2015)
Household Income Distribution in
ASEAN: 2014
Households by Annual
Disposable Income Band in
ASEAN: 2014 and 2030
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Implications
(1) Continuing dependence on slowing developed markets: Given current
patterns of domestic demand in the region, developed economies (e.g., US, EU)
will continue to play a key role as final markets for manufactures over medium
term, within framework of global value chains and related production networks in
key industries, e.g. electronics, automotives, garments, agro-industry.
(2) Expanding opportunities in Asian emerging markets over the longer
term – but with a difference: Expanding Asian emerging markets (e.g. AEC +
China + India) will present increasing growth/diversification opportunities
• For SME suppliers in GVC/networks increasingly focusing on regional markets
• For SMEs exporting products/services to final consumers in AEC (emerging Asia)
• But for markets with very different characteristics than developed economies
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RESPONSE
•Promoting more GMS SME internationalization on 3 tracks
•1. Exporting existing (final) products/services
•2. Innovating for Asian emerging markets and beyond*
•3. Suppliers in regional and global value chains (GVC)
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Integrating GMS SMEs into
global and regional value chains
Around 80 percent of world trade is now through GVCs (UNCTAD 2014)
Participation in GVCs as key means for SMEs to internationalize as suppliers
(subcontractors) of intermediate inputs (parts, components, services) for
MNEs from within or outside the region
Benefits of participation in GVCs, e.g.
• Strengthening the technical and managerial capabilities of firms
• Increasing capacity utilization and production efficiency
• Strengthening the reputation and credibility of the firm
• Providing manageable way for SMEs to reach and compete in global markets
Challenges of participation in GVCs:
• Requirement to deliver right product (product standards), in the right quantity
(production capacity), with the right quality (quality standards), at the right time
(efficient logistics), and produced in the right way (process standards)
• And to upgrade (add value) over time
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GVC examples
Apparel - Garment GVC
Automotive GVC Source: Cattaneo et al (2013)
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Changing nature of GVCs in a
post-crisis (2008) world
Consolidation
• Lead firms are reducing number of suppliers; more difficult for new (SME) suppliers to
enter GVCs, who now have to have the required capabilities
Convergence
• Technology/product synergies: lead firms in different sectors increasingly sourcing
from same suppliers, e.g. Foxconn: Apple, Acer, Cisco
Re-shoring (to some extent)
• Lead firms re-shore to home market due to cost and risk – extent not clear, but
contributing to decline in orders from Asian SME suppliers
Trade in services becoming more important and more complex
• Well beyond business process outsourcing, to higher value, knowledge based
services such as R&D and design, increasingly linked to production
Rise of e-commerce and ICT
• Internet-based business-related services can facilitate SME participation as suppliers
Emerging economies increasingly important final markets
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SME participation in GVCs:
General stages of internationalization Sourece: Abonyi (ERIA, 2015), Adapted and modified from SPRING Singapore (2011)
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Preparation • Involves pre-
internationalization, getting ready to enter foreign markets directly or as suppliers in global value chains
• e.g. providing adequate working capital, risk sharing for bank borrowing, internationalization workshops, GVC supplier skill development
Active Engagement • Start and early
implementation of internationalization activities
• e.g. building linkages and alliances, assistance with regulatory requirements
Growth and Expansion • Strengthening and
enlarging the product market position of the firm in foreign markets, or as supplier in a global value chain
• e.g. strengthening capacity for compliance with international standards, clustering and networks
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SME participation in GVCs:
2-level strategy
Basic constraints, and key differences among value chains
• Differing logistics and skill needs of electronics, automotives, agro-industry:
• Need both “general” and “GVC-specific” policy focus
General policy focus
Understanding of structure and dynamics of global value chains by policy
makers and SMEs (e.g. Thailand, India)
Strengthen trade facilitation services -- customs, logistics (e.g. Cambodia)
Support for general ICT capabilities
Understanding and meeting general business standards (e.g. ISO)
Special attention: supply chain financing
• Receivables finance or factoring: sell (large) buyer - approved invoice to bank
• Addresses key SME constraints of lack of collateral and poor financial position
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SME participation in GVCs:
2-level strategy
GVC-specific policy focus
Understanding structure and dynamics of particular GVCs
Understanding and meeting GVC-specific standards (product,
process, market, firm)
Skill development (e.g. PSDC, Penang Malaysia)
GVC-focused logistics services, particularly for SMEs (e.g. fresh
fruit and vegetables, e.g. Thailand)
Market/buyer-related information for specific GVCs, (e.g. value
chain specific trade fairs, online platforms, and advisory centres)
Strengthen GVC-specific clusters, with particular focus on
cluster/business institutions (e.g. Thailand: HDD vs. rubber
manufacture)
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GMS SMES,
BORDER AREA
DEVELOPMENT, AND
CROSS-BORDER
LINKAGES Strengthening mutually beneficial cross
border value chain (GVC) linkages Source: Abonyi and Zola (ADB, 2015); Abe et al (UNESCAP, 2013/14)
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Strengthening cross-border linkages
in the Greater Mekong Subregion
Economic rationale
• Relatively less-developed and more advanced economies can provide
complementary inputs for mutual benefit; can be particularly important in
developing border areas, e.g. Thailand and Myanmar
Business rationale
• Global value chains and related production networks fragment production to
different geographic locations with complementary factor endowments
• E.g. electronics (HDD); garments
Special role of border areas
Border areas provide opportunities to leverage cross-border
linkages for local development and as “gateways” to the wider
national economy
GMS: Thailand and neighbours – opportunities for mutual benefit
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Example: Thailand’s position in the Hard
Disk Drive (HDD) Global Value Chain (GVC) Source: Hiratsuka (2006)
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Example: Using Thailand-Cambodia cross-
border linkages in the HDD GVC
Source: UNESCAP (2013/14): “Business for Development: Capacity building of enterprises (SMEs) in the
Greater Mekong Subregion for their effective penetration into regional and global markets”
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Opportunity: Mae Sot (Thailand) – Myawaddy
(Myanmar) garment value chain cross-border linkages
Mae Sot
• Production base for labour-intensive industries, in particular, garments (e.g. 470
plants (mostly SMEs), 20,000 day/migrant workers
• Introduction of baht 300/day minimum wage
• Challenge: upgrade to higher value, higher tech/skills Thailand’s garment industry
• Priority SEZs for Thailand
Myawaddy
• Myanmar: reforms for market-oriented, internationally integrated economy
• Challenge: diversification of manufacturing and link to global value chains; and
focus on state/region (local) development, including local employment generation
• Myawaddy: in Kayin State; industrial zone (IZ) being developed
• On “priority national economic corridor”
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Example: GMS Cross-border value
chain in garments and textiles
Cross-border linkages to upgrade?
Source: Abe et al (UNESCAP 2013/14)
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Mae Sot – Myawaddy
linked Special Economic Zones (SEZ)
[Cross-border Special Economic Zone (CSEZ)]
Facilitating Mae Sot – Myawaddy garment production linkages through “in-bond
processing” system; supported by infrastructure, trade facilitation, and HRD
development initiatives. (based on Taguchi, 2013)
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Mae Sot – Myawaddy on the GMS East
West Economic Corridor (EWEC)
Source: Asian Development Bank
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THANK YOU
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