smd’s science program leads the world · 2008-03-06 · cv = -$90,855 spi = 0.914 sci = 0.723 cpi...
TRANSCRIPT
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SMD STATUS AND ISSUESMARCH 2008
Alan SternAssociate Administrator/SMD
SMD’s Science ProgramLeads The World
$4.441B/yr budget.
Large Earth science, heliophysics,planetary science, & astrophysics programs.
53 flight missions in operation.
41 flight missions in development.
3000+ operating R&A grants.
These numbers exceed the combinedefforts of all other Earth & space scienceprograms of the World.
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SMD Major Activities: Next 12 months
SMD Overview & ’08 Events FY09 SMD Budget Overview Mars Next Decade MSL Issues Q&A
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
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FY09 PRESIDENT’S BUDGET:OVERVIEW
We will get more science done within ourbudget.
We will help ensure that U.S. SpaceExploration Policy succeeds.
We will promote U.S. leadership across allof SMD’s science disciplines.
We will improve SMD’s actual and itsperceived impact on, and relevance to,
the public.
We will create a better workplace.
SMD MANAGEMENTOBJECTIVES
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MAJOR FY09 BUDGETINITIATIVES
Increased commitment to Earth Science to accelerate theES decadal survey.
Initiated seven new FY09 mission starts: more than in thepast four budgets combined; at least one per SMD sciencearea: Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015
launches) Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015) Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015) Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017)
small lunar science orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunarmini-landers (launch by 2014).
Substantial increases in astrophysics, heliophysics, andplanetary science R&A/MO&DA.
Increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons.
* FY2007 * FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Total NASA $16,231.0 $17,300.5 $17,610.7 $18,022.9 $18,457.0 $18,901.6 $19,355.4
Science $4,609.9 $4,706.2 $4,441.5 $4,482.0 $4,534.9 $4,643.4 $4,761.6
Earth Science $1,198.5 $1,280.3 $1,367.5 $1,350.7 $1,250.9 $1,264.4 $1,290.3
Planetary Science $1,215.6 $1,247.5 $1,334.2 $1,410.1 $1,537.5 $1,570.0 $1,608.7
Astrophysics $1,365.0 $1,337.5 $1,164.5 $1,122.4 $1,057.1 $1,067.7 $1,116.0
Heliophysics $583.7 $590.9 $575.3 $598.9 $689.4 $741.2 $746.6
DSN / Ground Netw ork $247.2 $250.0
Aeronautics Research $593.8 $511.7 $446.5 $447.5 $452.4 $456.7 $467.7
Education $114.1 $137.9 $112.1 $122.7 $120.4 $120.4 $120.4
Exploration Systems $2,837.6 $3,143.0 $3,500.5 $3,737.7 $7,048.2 $7,116.8 $7,666.8
Constellation Systems $2,114.7 $2,471.9 $3,048.2 $3,252.8 $6,479.5 $6,521.3 $7,080.5
Advanced Capabilities $722.9 $671.1 $452.3 $484.9 $568.7 $595.5 $586.3
Space Operations $5,093.5 $5,526.2 $5,774.7 $5,872.7 $2,900.1 $3,089.9 $2,788.5
Space Shuttle $3,295.3 $3,266.7 $2,981.7 $2,983.6 $95.7
International Space Station $1,469.0 $1,813.2 $2,060.2 $2,277.0 $2,176.4 $2,448.2 $2,143.1
Space and Flight Support (SFS) $329.2 $446.3 $732.8 $612.1 $628.0 $641.7 $645.4
Cross-Agency Support $2,949.9 $3,242.9 $3,299.9 $3,323.9 $3,363.7 $3,436.1 $3,511.2
Agency M anagement and Operations $971.2 $830.2 $945.6 $945.5 $939.8 $950.5 $961.3
Institutional Investments $223.8 $319.7 $308.7 $331.7 $335.9 $330.4 $338.3
Congressionally Directed Items $80.0
Center M anagement and Operations $1,754.9 $2,013.0 $2,045.6 $2,046.7 $2,088.0 $2,155.2 $2,211.6
Inspector General $32.2 $32.6 $35.5 $36.4 $37.3 $38.3 $39.2
* FY07-08 are consistent w ith IBPD, and exclude latest Operating Plans. Subsequent charts INCLUDE Operating Plans.
NASA AND SMD PRESIDENT’SBUDGET: FY09-FY13
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Heliophysics
Planetary Science
Astrophysics
Earth Science
Ground Network / DSN
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
SMD BUDGET BY SCIENCETHEME
Launches by Calendar Year
New Horizons
STEREO
ST-5
* Hinode
ST-6
TWINS-A
CALIPSO
CloudSat
Phoenix
Daw n
GLAST
THEMIS
AIM
TWINS-B
* M3
HST SM-4
Kepler
* Herschel
* Planck
SDO
SOFIA
LWS SET-1
CINDI
IBEX
Glory
OCO
OSTM
MSL
WISE
ST-7
NPP
* Aquarius
Juno
Mars Scout
Discovery
RBSP
Mars 2013
Discovery
JWST
MIDEX
MMS
GPM Core
Earth Syst
* GPM Const
LDCM
Discovery
Sentinels
Mars 2016
New Frontiers
Einstein 1
ESSP
Discovery
MIDEX
Earth Syst
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17
Earth
Helio
Astro
Planetary
Missions Led by International Partner Indicated By *
Airborne or Suborbital Missions Indicated By Italics
SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM:JANUARY 2007
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Launches by Calendar Year
New Horizons
STEREO
ST-5
Hinode
ST-6
TWINS-A
CALIPSO
CloudSat
Phoenix
Daw n
THEMIS
AIM
* M3
HST SM-4
GLAST
* Herschel
* Planck
SDO
IBEX
LWS SET-1
CINDI
TWINS-B
Glory
OCO
OSTM
MSL
SOFIA
Kepler
WISE
ST-7
NPP
* Aquarius
Juno
GRAIL
LADEE
NuSTAR
LDCM
SMEX
RBSP
Mars Scout -
Aeronomy
Lunar Mini-
Lander 2
Lunar Mini-
Lander 1
* ExoMars
JWST
SMEX
BARREL
BARREL
GPM Core
Discovery
MMS
* GPM Const
SMAP
JDEM
SMEX
Solar Probe
* Solar Orbiter
ICESat II
Mars 2016
New Frontiers
Venture 2
Venture 1
OPF
Discovery
ExoPlanet 1
ES Decadal 3
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17
Earth
Helio
Astro
Planetary
Missions Led by International Partner Indicated By *
Airborne or Suborbital Missions Indicated By Italics
SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM:JANUARY 2008
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M3 MoO
MMS
IBEX
ST-9
RBSP ExoMars MoO
LDCM
GRAIL
EPOXI MoO
NExT MoO
NuSTAR
Solar Orb MoO
BARREL MoO
OPF
LADEE
Scout 2013
New Frontiers
JDEM
SMEX 2012
SMEX 2013
SMEX 2015
SMEX MoO
Solar Probe
ICESat II
SMAP
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
Heliophysics
Planetary
Earth Science
Astrophysics
NEWLY STARTEDMISSIONS
New Starts Defined as a Phase A Start Year or Final Downselect Year—Whichever is Later.
FLAGSHIP MISSIONCANDIDATES
Europa Orbiter Jupiter SystemObserver (JSO)
TitanExplorer
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FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
B C & D E
LADEE Launch Goal Mini Lander Launch Goal
Lunar Research and Analysis
ILN Operation Start Goal
Mission of OpportunityScience-Funding-Opportunity Driven
A
Node I & IIOperations
Science Definition
Cruise
B EALaunch date to be set during Phase A
TBD during Phase A
LUNAR ROBOTIC SCIENCEMISSION INITIATIVE
LADEE
Mini Lander
LROE+
Possible Intl. PartnerEarly Operations
EC/D
ESMD SMD
B C & D E
SMD-Discovery Mission
Cruise
GRAIL
SDTB/C/D duration finalized during A
020308
SMD
-Ful
l Moo
n M
issi
ons
Science DefinitionSDT
Mars Program - Next DecadeLaunch Year
2020
TBD missionbased on
budget and sciencefeed-forward
MSR Element #1
Sample ReceivingFacility online by 2022
MSR Element #2
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MARS BUDGETHISTORY
Mars, as % of Total Planetary Funding, Since 1959
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
Mariner
Viking
Mars Observer
MGS, Pathfinder,
Mars 98, Odyssey,
MER, MRO, Phoenix,
MSL, Scout…
1985-2013 average = 27.3%
PLANETARY DIVSISIONBUDGET SPLITS
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MSL
August 2006: MSL Confirmed at a development (C/D) cost of $972M.– Program added $32M to increase reserves to 35% (~60% on the S-Curve).
Late ’06/early ’07: ~$20M in descopes were taken to control cost growth:– TLS, Corer, Sample Crusher, CheMin dual X-ray source, EDL latitude
performance.June ’07: MSL descopes and cash of $62M. Sources of growth included:
– Instruments; SAM, CheMin, ChemCam, Malin Space Science Systemscameras.
– Mechanical Design of Rover body, Corer/drill, Sample Acquisition/SampleProcessing and Handling
– Actuator Design– Thermal Protection System testing– Parts Procurements– Fabrication Services/Labor
Jan ’08: MSL estimated need for $165M-$200M cash. Sources of growth include:– Actuators, Thermal Protection System testing– Parts, Subsystems, Testing– Fabrication Services/Labor
MSL COST GROWTHHISTORY
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MSL GROWTH BYSUBSYSTEM
Largest contributors to growth
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Chem
Cam
Gro
ud D
ata
syst
em
Pro
j Scien
ce O
ffice
Mission
sys
tem
PSE
FS P
P
Mission
ass
uran
ce
Project M
gmt
Msn
des
ign
& n
av
Flight
Sys
tem
Mgm
t
PL Office
Telec
omFSW
Therm
al c
ontro
l
FS P
A
Pro
pulsio
n su
bsys
tem
Che
Min
FS s
yste
m e
ng
SAM
SA/SPaH
GN&C
PL M
SSS Cam
eras
proj
ect s
yste
ms
I&T
GN&C r
adar
Mec
hani
cal CEDL
Mec
hani
cal ot
her
Mec
hani
cal ro
ver
Avi
onics
$ t
ho
us
an
ds
April EAC July EAC Nov EAC
NOTE: See also Aerospace Corp EVM Charts in b/u at WBS levels 3/4
Radar
ATLO
w/EMs
ATLO
ATLO KSC
Flt. AvionicsDescent Stage
DrillR
adar
CDRJune 2007
LaunchSept. 2009July 2008March 2008
ShipMay 2009
Deliveries
As of Jan. 2008EAC increased > $200M
Since June 2007
KSCDeliveries
Jan. 2009
MSL Development FlowCompressionFlt. H
eatshield
Flt. AvionicsDescent Stage
Drill
As of June 2007CDR
Possible delays but flexibility available
Flt. Heatshield
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$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07
BCWS
BCWP
ACWP
SV = -$32,084
CV = -$90,855
SPI = 0.914
SCI = 0.723
CPI = 0.791
Cost Variance & ScheduleVariance Are Increasing
}
CumulativePerformance
Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU)
MSL PROJECT BUDGET GROWTH HISTORY
MSL Historical Direct LCC
$1,400
$1,450
$1,500
$1,550
$1,600
$1,650
$1,700
$1,750
$1,800
$1,850
PNAR
(2/2006)
NAR
(8/2006)
Confirmation
(8/2006)
Current
(12/2007)
Projected
w /PICA
JPL projected
EAC
$(M
)
12/07/07Current JPL
Projected
Blue line $1699Mcorresponds tothe 70% onSRB’s S-curvedevelopment cost predicted at confirmation