smc factory of the future dannapfel -180523 pub · 2018. 6. 6. · manufacturing remains an...

© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT

The Factory of the Future

Findings from Grand Manufacturing Survey

Matthias Dannapfel

Chief Engineer/ Head of Department Factory Planning

Chair of Production Engineering,

Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering (WZL), RWTH

Aachen University

Seite 2© WZL/Fraunhofer IPT

Production infrastructure is built for decades –

however, the requirements change with increasing time

today 2030

Sources: Supply Chain Management Review/ January/ February 2014/ AT Kearney; H+ Magazine June 2014; pictures: Volkswagen; Vau-Max; Secusmart


Production infrastructure is built for decades –

however, the requirements change with increasing time

During the next 20 years, the world will change as much as it has changed in the past 100 years

1915 today 2030

Sources: Supply Chain Management Review/ January/ February 2014/ AT Kearney; H+ Magazine June 2014; pictures: Volkswagen; Vau-Max; Secusmart


Commoditization and marginalization of production are already observable

Sources: Blomberg, January 5th, 2012; Welt, March 5th, 2012; volkswagen-karriere.de; bertrandt-karriere.com; trinckle.com; partfactory.com

1.5%

margin

30%

margin

Services in the manufacturing

environment are outsourced

Cost pressure for contract

manufacturers

Anonymous production marketsProduction is sold

Perpetual vacancies in technical professions:

Status: 26.02.2015

143 Bertrandt in Tappenbeck (Wolfsburg)

36 Volkswagen in Wolfsburg

AMD completely withdraws from chip

production


New needs lead to a marginalization of the production sector – the quaternary

(virtual) sector rises

GDPDE

time

Primary production

Industrial sector

Service sector

Virtual sector

1943: Maslow

hierarchy

Maslow hierarchy of

modern society1

Self-realization

GDP = Gross Domestic Product PSA = Peugeot Société Anonyme WoW = World of Warcraft

Sources: Selstad, T.: The rise of the quaternary sector. 1990 1 Hilary Frazer, 2010 2 eBay 3 manager-magazin; onvista.de 4 Kzero 5 Forbes 6 Statistisches Bundesamt

World of Warcraft

Spectral tiger², 253€

UBER 3x worth more than PSA3

100,000 people in China earn their money

with virtual WoW-gold4

Examples

Corporation with 55 employees sold for

19 billion $5

Mobile payment volume covers 330

billion $6

today

<1%

27%

72%

Market perspective


The consequences are severe:

the ability to generate profits in production is in danger

In the future, will production still be a promising business model?

Production in existing

structures is becoming

more difficult

Increasing skills

shortage

Decreasing ability to

generate profits

Decreasing innovation

Decreasing interest in

productionBOOOOORING

Sources: Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, 2015, “Zeitreihe der Neueinschreibungen”


Manufacturing remains an significant success factor for economies

“(…) Western nations rediscovered the charm of

manufacturing as a driver of innovation,

employment and services.”,

Dr. Wilfried Aulbur, Senior Partner Roland Berger(2)

“What individual countries’ success stories of today

have in common is that they do manufacture, they do

export and they have very competitive layer of

medium-sized enterprises”, Stéphane Garelli, IMD

Professor and World Competitiveness Center Director(3)

“The Council of the European Union (…) underlines the

importance of the EU's industrial competitiveness

and its world leadership in many industrial sectors

(…)”, European Council(4)

-50 150 350 550 750

EL

LU

UK

CY

IT

DK

PT

HR

ES

FI

FR

BE

IE

EU-28

NL

DE

SE

AT

HU

LV

SI

RO

BG

CZ

EE

PL

SK

Industry (excerpt construction)

Trade transport, accomodation & foodservicesInformations and communications

Sources: (1) EU Structural Change 2015, Publication Office of the European Union 2015; (2) Roland Berger 2016, https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Blog/Manufacturing-is-cool-The-reindustrialization-of-

the-triad.html; (3) RealBusinessUK.co.uk 2012; (4) Conclusions on A stronger European industry for growth and economic recovery, Brussels 2012.

Percentage change in GVA by sectors between 2000 and 2014(1)

„Countries that experienced the largest increases in manufacturing in 2000-2014 also experienced the

largest increases in value added in several business-related service sectors (…)“ (1)

Economies with

successful industrial

sector also outperform

others in service sectors


The UK‘s manufacturing is a prominent example of a global trend – (re-)vitalizing the

industrial sector

The UK wants to re-balance its

economy towards making things and

selling more of its wares overseas.

Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-24512779

Manufacturing growth in the UK is

continuing to rise steadily(…)


So what is the right direction to address the challenges of today and tomorrow?

Internet of

Things

SecuritySmart

production

Automation

Self

optimization

CPS

Smart

products

Sensors

RFID

Cloud

Smart

networks

Industrial

Apps

Self

DiagnosisICT

RTLS

HMI

Condition

monitoring

Smart

services

Big Data


The normative guidelines for the factory of the future – What does the factory of the

future stand for?

The Factory of the Future concept ensures the business model for manufacturing in the future

Smart

Linked, Communicating,

Self-controlling

Human-CentricSeamless

integration into the

environment

Agile

Support-free,

multiple usage

Profitable

Return on

Investment

EcologicalThe environment provides

comfortable surroundings

EfficientSustainable


WZL & BCG industry survey

How does the Factory of the Future look like in 2030?

Plant Structure General plant

setup

Plant layout

Plant technology10 key technologies, e.g.,

robots, big data, virtual

reality

Plant organization &

people management Leadership requirements

Employee requirements

Plant processesFuture relevance

of lean

management

concepts

Preconditions Strategy & roadmap

Governance

Infrastructure

Data security

Factory of the Future envisioned along 5 key dimensionsSource: Factory of the Future study by BCG & WZL/RWTH Aachen; n = 760

1

2 3

4

0


Factory of the Future – Hot topics:

3 "Evergreens" and 3 "Newcomers" shape the Factory of the Future

Source: Factory of the Future study by BCG & WZL/RWTH Aachen; n = 760

B A

CD

20

30

2016Low High

High

T4

S2

P1

O1

S3

T2

S1T5

O2

T6

T3

T8

O3

T1

T7

S4

P2PP

T9

Relevance of different topics 2016 & 2030 Topic overview

PreconditionsP1 – Data security

P2 – Infrastructure

EvergreensS3 – Factory layout

O2 – Leadership

PP – Lean management concept

NewcomersT1 – Smart robots

T3 – Additive manufacturing

T9 – Big data & analytics

OthersS1 – Modular setup

S2 – Sustainability

S4 – Interior design

O1 – Requirements profile for employees

O3 – Training

T2 – Human-robot cooperation

T4 – Augmented reality

T5 – Production simulations

T6 – Immersive Training

T7 – Integration of value chain

T8 – Decentralized production steering

Newcomers

Evergreens

T – Plant TechnologyPP – Plant processesO – Plant organization & people mgmtS – Plant StructureP – Preconditions


Comparison of industry views:

Several differences regarding relevance of production topics


Automotive

Process industry

Engineered products

Industry specific view

Modular setup seen as highly relevant

Integration of value chain relatively low

relevance

Relatively high spread of topic relevancies

Smart robots seen as relatively low relevant

Additive manufacturing among lowest

relevance

Data security by far most relevant topic

Factory layout relatively high relevance

Qualification among most relevant future

topics

Relatively low spread of topic relevancies

Shared view

Relatively high relevance

Data security

Leadership

Training & Qualification

Factory layout


Smart robots:

Future application of smart robots most relevant in assembly

1. Equals to the share of companies that currently employs/is likely to employ respective technology

Note: Rating 1 = not relevant, 5 = very relevant


"Robots cost 3 – 6 EUR per hour, a human work force costs ten times as much. Let's be realistic about who is going to make the race in the future."

(Factory manager)

Comments from industry

Smart robots are able to carry out complex production tasks automatically by collecting information on the required processing from the work piece and

loading the required program as well as replacing tools fully automatically.

Definition

4.6

2.1

Process

industry

Others

3.6

2.22.3 2.0

4.5

2.2

4.2

AutomotiveOverall

4.3

Engineered

products

Overall topic relevance 2016 vs. 2030 Application in automotive plant shops1

Supplier

4.6 4.4

2.2

OEM

2.4

n=24 n=26

Relevance of implementation

Future influence

Until today 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

0.4

AssemblyPaint shop Component

manufacturing

0.2

Body shop

0.4

0.3

0.1

Pressing shop

4.0

Working

conditions

4.0

Production

speed

Cost

4.0

3.63.8

QualityFlexibility

2016 2030Industry


Additive manufacturing:

Significant increase of AM, production quantity 500 – 2,000

Main drivers for the changeover from traditional production to AM are: small scale/custom made parts, complex structures, which can only be manufactured from one component


Additive manufacturing refers to procedures for the 3D-printing of components of different materials.

Definition

1.5

3.6

Engineered

products

Process

industry

4.1

2.0 1.6

Others

3.3

1.7

3.8

1.8

AutomotiveOverall

3.8

Overall topic relevance 2016 vs. 2030

Application areas for Automotive

1.8

3.9

1.7

Supplier

3.7

OEM

Relevance of implementation

Future influence

Until today 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

0.4

Paint shopBody shop

0.30.2

Component

manufacturing

0.6

0.2

Pressing shop Assembly

Working

conditions

2.3

Quality

3.8

Production

speed

3.53.0

Cost Flexibility

4.1



Application in automotive plant shops1

2,000NA 100 500 10,000 50.000 100,000 >100,000

2016 2030Industry


Big data & analytics:

Forecasting seen as key application of big data & analytics



Big data & analytics concerns the analysis of large amounts of data.

"We implemented an algorithm that learns the pattern in empirical demand data and generate forecasts based on that. Our demand planning relies on these forecasts and provides the basis for efficient supply chain management and

execution."

Definition

(Automotive Head of IT)


Overall topic relevance 2016 vs. 2030 Future relevance of private or public cloud

Others

3.9

2.3

Process

industry

3.7

2.3

Engineered

products

3.8

2.3

Automotive

3.9

2.3

Overall

3.8

2.3

Supplier

3.9

2.2

OEM

4.0

2.3

n=24 n=26

Personnel resource planning

based on improved demand forecasts

Automated stock optimization

2.0

3.4

2.4

2.2

2.4

3.7

4.2

4.4

2016 2030Industry

Predictive maintenance based on

pattern recognition

Production planning based on

improved sales forecasts


Factory of the Future – Pioneers and Followers

Pioneers rate Factory of Future more relevant than Followers


FoF Pioneers prove to have a higher EBIT margin

4.0

-15%

4.7

FoF Pioneers

FoF Pioneers rate production topics as

highly relevant in future

Top 15 % of companies based on their

average rating of overall topic relevance

FoF Pioneers prove to ... ... have a higher EBIT margin

8%

-17%

10%

FoF Followers

FoF Followers consider production

topics less relevant than FoF Pioneers

Bottom 85 % of companies, based on

their average rating of topic relevance

Ø Relevance of future topics EBIT Margin


Time of implementation – Technology forecast

Integration of value chain already in progress

1. Comparison based on average relevance of companies in respective industry cluster


Bottom line: The Factory of the Future starts now

2016-2020 2025-20302020-2025Until 2016

Top 3 short-term technologies

Integration of the value chain

Human robot collaboration

Production simulations

Top 3 medium-term technologies

Immersive trainings

Additive manufacturing

Smart robots

Comparison of different plant technologies1 ... ... yields key insights:

Short-term Medium-term Long-term

Human robot

collaboration

Additive

manufacturing

Augmented reality

Production

simulations

Immersive

trainings

Integration of the

value chain

Decentralized

production steering

Smart robots

Technolo

gy


Quelle:

The Internet of Production Framework


Quelle:

The Internet of Production Application @ Aachen


Quelle:


Key take-aways

Factory of the Future will look different from today


Time is now to start Factory of the Future journey

Top 3 "Evergreen" topics: Layout, Leadership and Lean

Top 3 "Newcomer" topics: Big Data, Smart Robots and Additive Manufacturing

Plant setup will be modular – work pieces are individually guided through production

Employees will need IT competence combined with general problem-solving ability

Robots expected to highly impact production

Factory of the Future will bring Lean to next level and unlock its full potential

Based on lean: Put value first when implementing the Factory of the future


Thank you very much for

your attention!

Matthias Dannapfel

Chief Engineer/ Head of Department Factory Planning

Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering (WZL)

RWTH Aachen University

( +49 170 1054 460

*[email protected]

smc factory of the future dannapfel -180523 pub · 2018. 6. 6. · manufacturing remains an...

Documents