SMART INCO-MEDSMART INCO-MED55thth Management Board Management Board

Meeting,Meeting,January 17-18 2005 January 17-18 2005

Grenoble, FranceGrenoble, France

SMART INCO-MEDSMART INCO-MED55thth Management Board Management Board

Meeting,Meeting,January 17-18 2005 January 17-18 2005

Grenoble, FranceGrenoble, France

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austriakurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.atEnvironmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austriakurt@ess.co.at http://www.ess.co.atEnvironmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

SMART: Project Overview SMART: Project Overview 09:15 – 10:1509:15 – 10:15• 3 year duration to August 2005

• Started: September 2002

Current PM: 29 of 36

Or about 80% !!!

7 months left.

• 3 year duration to August 2005

• Started: September 2002

Current PM: 29 of 36

Or about 80% !!!

7 months left.

SMART: time tableSMART: time table

SMART SMART

SMART: Work Plan PhasesSMART: Work Plan Phases

1. Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications

2. Data compilation, tool development

3. Parallel case studies4. Comparative evaluation,

dissemination.

1. Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications

2. Data compilation, tool development

3. Parallel case studies4. Comparative evaluation,

dissemination.

SMART: Milestones SMART: Milestones 1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first

workshop – DELAYED (1 month)2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready,

start of operational phase3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first

results of scenario analysis ???4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase

5 PM 30 Case studies completed, comparative analysis

6 PM 36 Project and reporting completed

1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first workshop – DELAYED (1 month)

2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase

3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first results of scenario analysis ???

4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase

5 PM 30 Case studies completed, comparative analysis

6 PM 36 Project and reporting completed

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis

completed

WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis

completed

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines

nominally completed, indicator definitions and data compilation/analysis

not yet completed

WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines

nominally completed, indicator definitions and data compilation/analysis

not yet completed

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 03: Analytical tools, models

SOGREAH, PM 3-18• TELEMAC (scenarios completed ?)

• WaterWare (LUC, RRM, WRM)

Nominally completed, web implementation of LUC, RRM, WRM complete, but no fully operational (calibrated) or complete scenarios yet. HOW TO PROCEED ?

WP 03: Analytical tools, models

SOGREAH, PM 3-18• TELEMAC (scenarios completed ?)

• WaterWare (LUC, RRM, WRM)

Nominally completed, web implementation of LUC, RRM, WRM complete, but no fully operational (calibrated) or complete scenarios yet. HOW TO PROCEED ?

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 04: Data compilation and analysis

SUMER leads, PM 6-24Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for

each case study/country

SHOULD BE COMPLETED !!!

Deliverable due in February .

WP 04: Data compilation and analysis

SUMER leads, PM 6-24Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for

each case study/country

SHOULD BE COMPLETED !!!

Deliverable due in February .

SMART: WP04 SMART: WP04

1. Develop meta-data structure

2. Formats, technical specifications

3. Coverage and resolution (space and time)

4. Develop checklists

5. Monitor compilation: WHERE ARE WE ???

6. DATA BASE IMPLEMENTATION (on-line, with ESS)

7. Comparative analysis (completeness, consistency, plausibility)

1. Develop meta-data structure

2. Formats, technical specifications

3. Coverage and resolution (space and time)

4. Develop checklists

5. Monitor compilation: WHERE ARE WE ???

6. DATA BASE IMPLEMENTATION (on-line, with ESS)

7. Comparative analysis (completeness, consistency, plausibility)

SMART: WP04 SMART: WP04

OBJECTIVE and PRODUCT (the PLAN):

Common, consistent data baseExtensive documentation/Meta data !On-line access and analysisAccessible from the project web site with

interactive display and basic on-line analysis tools: GIS, TimeSeries

Map server at CEDARE – Egypt CS example on-line – any data submitted ?

OBJECTIVE and PRODUCT (the PLAN):

Common, consistent data baseExtensive documentation/Meta data !On-line access and analysisAccessible from the project web site with

interactive display and basic on-line analysis tools: GIS, TimeSeries

Map server at CEDARE – Egypt CS example on-line – any data submitted ?

SMART: WP04 SMART: WP04

1.Common Land Use classification (CORINE)

2. INDICATORS (WP2/WP10): FEEM/UATLA: TO BE FINALIZED

3. BASIN DATA, MODEL INPUTS and SCENARIOS

1.Common Land Use classification (CORINE)

2. INDICATORS (WP2/WP10): FEEM/UATLA: TO BE FINALIZED

3. BASIN DATA, MODEL INPUTS and SCENARIOS

SMART: WP05-9 SMART: WP05-9

Scenario definitions (for all models !) :1. Base line (calibration)2. Business as usual3. Worst case4. Optimistic

incomplete according to the SUMER spreadsheets, no operational on-line scenarios ready to run/analyse

Scenario definitions (for all models !) :1. Base line (calibration)2. Business as usual3. Worst case4. Optimistic

incomplete according to the SUMER spreadsheets, no operational on-line scenarios ready to run/analyse

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

Respective partner, PM 12-30,

Overlaps with data compilation

Actual case study work to have started in September 2003

WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed !!!

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

Respective partner, PM 12-30,

Overlaps with data compilation

Actual case study work to have started in September 2003

WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed !!!

Case Study reports: Case Study reports:

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

PM 12-30 (NOW: 29 ?!), Overlaps with data compilation

Actual case study work to have started in September 2003

WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed NOW.

WP 05 – 09 Case Studies

PM 12-30 (NOW: 29 ?!), Overlaps with data compilation

Actual case study work to have started in September 2003

WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed NOW.

Case Study reports: Case Study reports:

Reports are due: MAY 2005

Proposed content (common structure)

Template for the reports: proposed on ~/SMART/casestudytemplate.html

• Build on WP01, WP04

• Use model data bases/scenarios

• Use model results, screendumps

Reports are due: MAY 2005

Proposed content (common structure)

Template for the reports: proposed on ~/SMART/casestudytemplate.html

• Build on WP01, WP04

• Use model data bases/scenarios

• Use model results, screendumps

Case Study reports: Case Study reports:

Tabular comparison of scenarios:Main assumptions (discuss, relate to WP02)

1. Structural change (network, strorage, sources)

2. Demand change (absolute, by sector – use model summary pages to document for common structure, easy comparison)

3. Allocation (priority/rule changes)4. Efficiencies and losses 5. Performance (supply/demand, reliability,

coastal WQ)

Tabular comparison of scenarios:Main assumptions (discuss, relate to WP02)

1. Structural change (network, strorage, sources)

2. Demand change (absolute, by sector – use model summary pages to document for common structure, easy comparison)

3. Allocation (priority/rule changes)4. Efficiencies and losses 5. Performance (supply/demand, reliability,

coastal WQ)

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 10: Comparative analysis

FEEM, PM 24-36

Requires input from all case studies (FEEM presentation)

Based on indicators and scenario definitions/results

WP 10: Comparative analysis

FEEM, PM 24-36

Requires input from all case studies (FEEM presentation)

Based on indicators and scenario definitions/results

SMART: work packages SMART: work packages

WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation

ESS, PM 3-36 (Web server)EXPLOITATION STRATEGIES:CONTINUOUS UPDATES for

the plans per partner and country (PPR 3).

WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation

ESS, PM 3-36 (Web server)EXPLOITATION STRATEGIES:CONTINUOUS UPDATES for

the plans per partner and country (PPR 3).

WP 11: DisseminationWP 11: Dissemination• Web site (images, links, contributions: Web site (images, links, contributions:

don’t be shy, don’t be shy, please do send materialplease do send material such such as case study descriptions/extensions !!!as case study descriptions/extensions !!!

• Meetings, conferences, scientific and Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature technical literature (CONFERENCES ?)(CONFERENCES ?)

• Local workshopsLocal workshops• NETWORKINGNETWORKING

– Informal network, start with a Informal network, start with a

commoncommon address data base – address data base – on-line ?on-line ?

INCOMPLETE, no activity reportsINCOMPLETE, no activity reports

• Web site (images, links, contributions: Web site (images, links, contributions: don’t be shy, don’t be shy, please do send materialplease do send material such such as case study descriptions/extensions !!!as case study descriptions/extensions !!!

• Meetings, conferences, scientific and Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature technical literature (CONFERENCES ?)(CONFERENCES ?)

• Local workshopsLocal workshops• NETWORKINGNETWORKING

– Informal network, start with a Informal network, start with a

commoncommon address data base – address data base – on-line ?on-line ?

INCOMPLETE, no activity reportsINCOMPLETE, no activity reports

WP 11: DisseminationWP 11: Dissemination

•Web site, other Web site, other material ?material ?

•Meetings, Meetings, conferences, conferences, scientific and technical scientific and technical literature, manuscriptsliterature, manuscripts

•Local dissemination Local dissemination workshops (planning ?)workshops (planning ?)

•SMART: the eBook ?SMART: the eBook ?

•Web site, other Web site, other material ?material ?

•Meetings, Meetings, conferences, conferences, scientific and technical scientific and technical literature, manuscriptsliterature, manuscripts

•Local dissemination Local dissemination workshops (planning ?)workshops (planning ?)

•SMART: the eBook ?SMART: the eBook ?

WP 10: EvaluationWP 10: Evaluation

Aggregated into Sustainability Indicators

1. Economic efficiency

2. Environmental compatibility

3. Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

Aggregated into Sustainability Indicators

1. Economic efficiency

2. Environmental compatibility

3. Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

WP 10: EvaluationWP 10: Evaluation

EASY PRACTICAL SOLUTION:

Use the indicators directly generated by the models:

1. Supply/demand ratio (global and sectoral)

2. Reliability of Supply %3. CWQ (TELEMAC) standard violations

EASY PRACTICAL SOLUTION:

Use the indicators directly generated by the models:

1. Supply/demand ratio (global and sectoral)

2. Reliability of Supply %3. CWQ (TELEMAC) standard violations

WP 10: Decision SupportWP 10: Decision Support

Comparative analysis of cases/scenarios in terms of the indicators;

THE PLAN: Participatory approach:

Stake holders define criteria, objectives, constraints, and expectations

– DSS tool finds the nearest feasible solution in the set of alternatives.

Comparative analysis of cases/scenarios in terms of the indicators;

THE PLAN: Participatory approach:

Stake holders define criteria, objectives, constraints, and expectations

– DSS tool finds the nearest feasible solution in the set of alternatives.

WP 10: Decision SupportWP 10: Decision Support

Participatory approach: current status

Stake holders: contact, inform, involve.CURRENT STATUS: On-line Stakeholder DB with

~100 entries, but MANY incomplete:

– NO ADDRESS !!! or Contact Person/details

– WITHOUT activity reports. These are the central part – actors should at least have been informed, better asked, invited, involved.

Participatory approach: current status

Stake holders: contact, inform, involve.CURRENT STATUS: On-line Stakeholder DB with

~100 entries, but MANY incomplete:

– NO ADDRESS !!! or Contact Person/details

– WITHOUT activity reports. These are the central part – actors should at least have been informed, better asked, invited, involved.

WP 10Decision SupportWP 10Decision Support

Reference point approach:Reference point approach:

nadirnadirnadirnadir

utopiautopiautopiautopia

A1A1

A2A2

A3A3

A4A4

betterbetter

efficient efficient pointpoint

criterion 1criterion 1

crite

rion

2cr

iterio

n 2 A5A5

dominateddominated

A6A6

WP 10: Decision SupportWP 10: Decision Support

SIMPLE SOLUTION:

1. Eliminate dominated solutions

2. Use UTOPIA as reference point

3. Show results to stakeholders, obtain/analyze comments

BUT: it still needs a set of alternative scenario results from the models

SIMPLE SOLUTION:

1. Eliminate dominated solutions

2. Use UTOPIA as reference point

3. Show results to stakeholders, obtain/analyze comments

BUT: it still needs a set of alternative scenario results from the models

SUMMARY:SUMMARY:

PROJECT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

Strategy for safe completion:

1. Withhold CS2 payments

2. Organize additional, individual model workshops (at ESS ?)

3. Use on-line tools (new data bases) for direct extraction of report contents

4. Submit DRAFT reports early

PROJECT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE.

Strategy for safe completion:

1. Withhold CS2 payments

2. Organize additional, individual model workshops (at ESS ?)

3. Use on-line tools (new data bases) for direct extraction of report contents

4. Submit DRAFT reports early