Smallpox Martyr Bio-terrorism Modeling in Python

Joe Fetsch

Purpose

While smallpox has been eradicated, reserves remain in case of an outbreak to use as a

vaccine. If Variola Major was released on a population, many fatalities would result if

effective measures were not taken.If this was done on a wider scale, resources

may be spread too thin to handle the situation effectively

Explanation of Purpose

This project is intended to determine the likely fatalities and damage caused by bio-terrorism

using a martyr attack with smallpox

Scenario

In this scenario, two “suicide smallpox infected terrorists” strategically target doctors’ offices to obtain a medical certificate to explain their

absence from work. They blend in with people suffering flu symptoms in the waiting

room, but they are already effectively spreading smallpox amongst staff and patients. A terrorist organization claims

responsibility for the outbreak.

Scenario, Cont'd

Citizens are too terrified to seek medical attention, as they

are now aware that medical facilities have been targeted. This is when the second

stage of the bio-terrorattack occurs. Smallpox is delivered to the

target city through either aerosolized delivery, or through an

infected set of suicide terrorists passing on smallpox through exhaled droplets.

Scenario Cont'd

Mass terror is created by the paradox that smallpox needs to be contained and treated, yet smallpox infection of patients and staff at hospitals causes citizens to stay away from

medical facilities. A radio-talk-back host ponders on-air whether by attending the

doctor to get checked for the flu,or vaccinated for smallpox, you may acquire smallpox before the vaccination takes effect.

Scenario Cont'd

Large segments of the community avoid medical treatment. The strain placed on

the infrastructure of the city brings it to a halt: planes do not arrive or leave, police at

roadblocks turn back fleeing residents, and the “terror” caused by the bio-terror attack is unmatched by any previously experienced health catastrophe. The economy is bought

to a standstill and the bio-terrorists now havepolitical influence as they have demonstrated

their capacity to inflict terror.

Other Projects

Several government simulations involving Smallpox taking other variables into account

have taken place, but no project has accounted for a limited supply of

vaccinations and manpowerSeveral programs have accounted for

vaccination or quarantine, but few involve both and none involve alternate supplies of

these resources

Scenario Cont'd

Worse still, a rumor circulates that the smallpox is a weaponised variant from the

former USSR, for whichthere is no vaccine. Thus the containment of

infected people proves to be impossible even though WHO

vaccines arrive quickly. There are not enough respirator masks to go around.

NetLogo Use

NetLogo was used to develop a basic understanding of the disease modeling system, but will not be used to create the smallpox model

NetLogo Virus Model

Smallpox

Much research was done to fully understand the Variola virus in all forms and its effects on a population

Child suffering from Smallpox

Each dot represents an Agent with a vision, intelligence, and a value describing the stage in which the disease progresses

The disease has been implemented, however more accurate data is needed

Project Structure The infection, after

Prodrome phase, will then progress into a more mature phase:

Ordinary Modified Malignant Hemorrhaging Confluent

Agent Movement

The agents move in a fashion that accounts for the human instinct to avoid those covered in pustules and yet still gather in groups

Away from infected and towards others

This still maintains an element of randomness to account for ignorance often expressed in a human population even in case of peril

Visual Representation

Green agents are healthy Yellow agents are in early

stage where not contagious or visible

Orange agents are in the prodromal phase, exhibiting flu symptoms

Red agents are infected, contagious and visible

Blue agents are immuneSugarscape-based model

Timeline

Research Smallpox to understand disease in order to better implement in program

Using NetLogo, obtained a basic understanding of the model of infection

Using Python, created basic model with agents and a 2-D vision and 1-D movement range to affect the influenced movement provided by the infected agents

Timeline

• Developed a model for infection, hoping to clarify my values and prove them accurate with past data

• Created a rough draft of the model for fatality

• Hoping to prove my data or create a more accurate representation with the contact at USAMRIID

Testing

Simulation has begun, average fatality rate in a city (likely to be standard global fatality rate) is estimated around 20% with 60% infected at one point

Man suffering from hemorrhagic smallpox also known as black pox – 100% fatal

Still needed:• Proof has been found to negate the

likelihood of vaccination, and the chaos in the city would negate military assistance