smallholder agriculture & climate change

smallholder agriculture and climate change

P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A BenedikterOxfam GB, London, January 2011

• Objectives• Methodology• Preliminary results

i. Guatemalaii. Bogotáiii. Jamaica

• Carbon Footprint online platform• A Framework to adapt• What’s next?• CCAFS

Outline

“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010

Objectives Perceptions

Beneficiaries (case studies)– Guatemala frozen vegetable value chain– Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security– Jamaica fresh vegetable market for the hotel industry

Objectives Adaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive management

Objectives

• Quantify the exposure of crops (using crop prediction models)

•Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)

• Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry

partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)

• Road map how adaptationstrategies can be used(deriving a framework)

Objectives Vulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2001)

VulnerabilityDegree of

susceptibility and

incapability ofa system to

confrontadverse effects

of climateChange

(IPCC 2001)

ExposureDegree to which a system is

exposed to significant variationin climate

SensitivityDegree to which a system is

positively or negatively affectedby climate related stimulus

Adaptive capacityThe ability of a system to adapt

to climate change

Methodology Overall Approach

Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs

Production and Quality Data

Socio Economic Information

Statistical Downscaling of

Climate Information

Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling

Vulnerability Analyses

Future Climatesat Local scale

Yield and Quality Impacts

Alternative Livelihood Strategies

EXPOSURE

SENSITIVITYADAPTIVE CAPACITY

Inputs Process Output

Methodology Crop prediction models

What is the suitability of a crop to the climate?

Suitability to future climate(2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability

Current SuitabilityFuture Suitability 2050Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)

Temperature

Prec

ipita

tion

Calibration with optimal points• Samples (GPS points)• Altitude range• Current Production Areas• Soil types

CalibratedTemperature and

PrecipitaciónRanges!

Ecocrop Database (FAO)(Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)

Ranges: Temperature and precipitation

WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.orgMore than 47,000 stations worldwide

http://worldclim.org/

Methodology DFID Livelihood Framework, Indicators on 5 Assets

Human

• Access to formal and informal education

• Level of knowledge of farming system management.

• Health and feeding

Social

• Organization• Take decisions /

Work distribution

• Access routes• Transport of

products• Quality of

accommodation

Physical

Natural

• Access and availability of water

• Contamination• Conservation• Soil conditions and

fertility

Financial

• Credit access• Variability of production• Price variability• Variability in annual revenue and income

diversification• Access to markets• Access to alternative technology

See presentation A130 by Celi et al.

Preliminary results Guatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chain

Actually cultivated vegetables areas

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionClimate change predictions for 2050

Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)

By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C

The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C

The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C

By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters.

“It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”

Extracted Climate Data for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability

Exposure … and limited land alternatives

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionDifferent Livelihood profiles

ADAM SUMAR

Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionStrategies Characterized from supply chain actors

Look for funds from organizations (like IFAD, Oxfam, … )for irrigation systems, inputs, trainings, infrastructure

• Installation of irrigation (Drill wells, rainwater harvesting)

• Financing through credit (Inputs or capital for producers, infrastructure)

• Educate producers (Reforestation, soil conservation, crop rotation, waste classification)

• Reforestation• Crop rotation• Irrigation

ALANEL, ADICOSO, ASDIC

Buen Sembrador

SUMAR, ADAM

Prod

ucer

s, c

oope

rativ

esCh

ain

acto

rs

Preliminary results Bogota’s food security




The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C


By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.

“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”

Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability of Potato

Potato

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability of cassava

Cassava

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionDifferent Livelihood profilesSensitivity & Adaptive Capacity

Selling to consumers (MC) Selling to intermediary Selling to both


3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups:

1. Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes)

2. Political incidence (local a global)

3. Sustainable/ecological production

Preliminary results Jamaica’s hotel industry supplier




The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C


By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters.

“It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”

Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica


Bamboo

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionSensitivity & Adaptive CapacityVulnerability


3 most important mentioned by different groups:

1. Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research

2. Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing

3. Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation

1. Analysis of food supply chains and business nature2. Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains3. Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns4. Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies

CHAININCLUSIV

EADAPTATI

ON STRATEGI

ES

VULNERABILITY People

Tools

Institutions

Adaptive Capacity

Importance

Resilience

Business

Exposure

Sensitivity

By means of:•Quantitative fieldwork at farm level•Geographic crop modelling•Participative workshops•Expert interviews with key supply chain actors•Fieldwork observations

Framework Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts

PURPOSE:-Characterisation: Understand the “nature of business”.-Reasons for adaptation: Check importance of FSC.-Evaluation of resilience: Will the FSC prevail against GCC impacts?

• Assess main objectives. Estimate importance of SCs for small farmers and other stakeholders Supply Chain Business Crops Objective Importance

GTM1 Selling variety of vegetables on different markets via support from local associations

Variety (10+) of crops. Deliver considerable quality at win-win prices

For small-farmers high, for other stakeholders substitutable

GTM2 Exportation of determined frozen vegetables via intermediary

Broccoli, Peas, Cauliflower.

Deliver defined amount of defined quality at low price

For smallholders high as they grew dependent on the system. Highly substitutable for wholesaler.

HOW TO ASSESS: -Keep it simple and general. Define supply chains via products and customers.-Compare FSCs among each other where possible.

Supply Chain

Fragile parts Resilient parts Overall resilience

Structures and Assets

Dynamics and

Organization

Structures and Assets

Dynamics and

Organization

GTM 1 Bad general infrastructure

Logistics stumbling sometimes

Farmers own land

NGOs build capacities.

Medium

• Assess main structures and dynamics and identify fragile and resilient parts for each SC

Framework Role and Nature of Food Supply Chains (FSCs)

Partial assessment of vulnerabilityAIMS AT:- Capture the elements of the problem: Exposure, affection, means to respond to GCC stresses.- Allocation of problem. Where is the least/highest need for adaptation?

•Exposure is found along a FSC when crops at farm level are exposed to GCC.HOW TO ASSESS: CROP SUITABILITY CHANGE

•Sensitivity is found along a FSC whenever producers are sensitive AND when up-the-road actors areaffected by producer level sensitivity.

HOW TO ASSESS:- affection of 5 livelihood assets at farm level, - crop diversification ,- FSC dependence on small-farmers

•Adaptive capacity has various components:

HOW TO ASSESS:- identify fixed patterns or entities enabling or inhibiting the capacity to respond- estimate assets -available and useful for adaptation- at non-farm level through FSC analysis.

Supply Chain Asset related capacities Institutional capacities Overall degree of crop diversification

FSC OVERALLADAPTIVE CAPACITYFarm level Non-farm level

GTM1 2,6high Medium Medium High ??

GTM2 1,8medium High Low Medium ??

COL1 3high Low High (will to change) Medium-high MEDIUM-HIGH

COL2 2medium High Medium (cohesion, but conservatism) High MEDIUM-HIGH

COL3 2,8high Medium High (will to change; higher professionalism) High HIGH

Supply Chain

Sensitivity at farm level

Downstream dependenceon farmers

Overall degree of crop diversification

FSC OVERALL SENSITIVITY

GTM1 1,8medium Medium-high Medium Medium

GTM2 2,6high Low Low Medium-high

Framework Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (1)

Analyse overall results for vulnerabilityPURPOSE:

- Overview of situation: Identifying cause of vulnerability.- Comparison: Location and characterization of hot spots.

SUPPLY CHAIN LEVEL FARM LEVEL

-100-50050100

GTM1

GTM2

COL1

COL2JAM

COL3

Mean suitability changeM

ean

sens

itivi

ty to

GCC

-100-50050100

GTM1

GTM2

COL1

COL2JAM

COL3

Mean suitability change

Mea

n se

nsiti

vity

to G

CC

HOW TO ANALYSE:-Focus on cases in upper right corner (orange-red) Highest need for adaptation.-Relate to adaptive capacity hot spots-Go back to partial analysis and find specific reasons for vulnerability at the hot spots-Respond to differences between farm and FSC level-Derive implications and suggestions

Framework Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (2)

Example:

Suggestions: Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…

People

• Identify and approach KEY PEOPLE and entities in the FSC:

• Power, relations, needs, capacities,…

BEHAVIOUR

•2 relevant types:• 1) Available (institutionalized) positive, i.e. enabling• 2) Institutionalized negative, i.e. inhibiting•

Mediation

•Key INSTITUTIONS AND TOOLS mediate and carry behaviour. Changing behaviour requires understanding and leveraging these media.

PURPOSE:-Understand people, entities and their reasons. -Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.-Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.

Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance.Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles. Impediments to change:

i. Uncertaintyii. Cognitive problems and differing perceptionsiii. Lack of motive or incentivesiv. Lack of capacity

FSC People BEHAVIOUR Type Mediation Enabled by: (Can be) Inhibited by:

COL1..

Small Farmers

Cultivate crops exclusively according to experience

2 Non-professionalism at farm level

Lack of up-to-date farming practices (Cognitive problems)

Formalization of supply chain and thus, profession

Mindset

Objectives

Obstacles and enablers

Environment

BEHAVIOUR

Framework Behaviour as Lever of Adaptation Strategies

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production

1. Information assessment2. Combine results, assess specific situation:

3. Derive feasible, generally held adaptation strategies• Focus on objective to define strategy. • Tailor strategies to (types of) crops/products and/or the reported overall situation.

Example: COL1

• Integrate strategies among each other. Compare to similar FSCs.4. Push implementation (incentives) and measure results.

• Measure in simple ways. Revise, draw conclusions for 5.5. Gradually adjust and deepen adaptation to specific regions.

• Local adjustments of strategies where necessary. • Increase internalisation of adaptation.

FEASIBLE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Nature of business

Assets available

People and Institutions

Obstacles:Weak structures,

obstructing behaviour

Enablers: Resilience and

favorable behaviour

Specific problems and needs

Strategy 1 – Chain strengthening for higher resilience: AIM: Better markets, higher professionalism, formalized chain. What can be used? Strong NGO links to farmers. Awareness of the situation at farm level. Will to adapt.

What is needed? More, bigger marketplaces (physical). Legal acknowledgement of chain. Implementation Suggestions

Build force: Give incentives (e.g. logistic support) at farm level to associate and use NGOs to push public legalization of farmer´s markets.Build awareness: NGOs should focus on pushing positive image of agriculture at farm and consumer level to promote professionalism.

Obstacles Geographical dispersion of supply, centralized market. Paternalistic mindset.

Strategy 2: …

Importance of FSC +Overall Vulnerability

=Engagement in Adaptation

Identify and locateHot spots

Framework Adaptation Strategies for Food Supply Chains

Colaboration Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS

What’s next? Grounding climate change

Site learn from site for 2030

By 2030, site will have current conditions of site

Site learn from site for 2030

Site learn …

smallholder agriculture and climate change

THANK YOU!

[email protected]

The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionCharacterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform

smallholder agriculture & climate change

Lifestyle

supply chain actors

climate change impacts

carbon food print

climate changep lderach

potential response pathways

industry partners

food security

hotel industry