climate changesma l l i s l and deve l op ing S ta t e s

UNFCCC (2005) climate change, small island developing States.Issued by the CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARIAT (UNFCCC), Bonn,Germany.

Disclaimer and rightsThis guide is issued for public information purposes and is not anofficial text of the Convention in any legal or technical sense.Unless otherwise noted in captions of graphics all matter may befreely reproduced in part or in full, provided the source isacknowledged.© UNFCCC 2005 all rights reserved

ISBN 92–9219–012–1

For further information contact:Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC)Martin-Luther-King Strasse 853175 Bonn, Germany

t. +49 228 815 1000f. +49 228 815 1999secretariat@unfccc.intunfccc.int

“The Maldives is one ofthe small states. Weare not in a position tochange the course ofevents in the world.But what you do or donot do here willgreatly influence thefate of my people. Itcan also change thecourse of worldhistory.”

Statement by H.E. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom(Maldives)

4 December 1997, Kyoto, Japan (COP 3)

Foreword

Since the negotiations that led to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change began, one groupof Parties has been particularly active and vocal: the smallisland developing States, or SIDS.

Why is climate change so important to SIDS? The answer issimple: these small nations are among the most vulnerableto climate change impacts, which will become critical if noappropriate action is taken. Many islands are threatened byrising sea levels. Another growing concern is the increasingnumber and severity of extreme weather events—with allthey entail in terms of loss of life and damage to propertyand infrastructure that can easily cripple small economies.SIDS are among the Parties least responsible for climatechange and are dependent on others to ensure thatsignificant action is taken in support of the Convention.Consequently, they strive not only to support the processdirectly but also to ensure that proper international action istaken to limit emissions of greenhouse gases and to adapt toclimate change.

This publication highlights the SIDS’ participation in theConvention as well as some of the ongoing needs andconcerns that they have expressed in the course of theUNFCCC process.

Happy reading!

Joke Waller Hunter, Executive Secretary, UNFCCC

Contents

Small island developing States and climate change 1

A profile of SIDS 4

Financial and technical support for SIDS 7

Contributions to global warming 10

A special vulnerability to climate change 13

Potential impacts of climate change 16- Water resources- The coastal environment- Agriculture and food security- Biodiversity- Human settlements and infrastructure- Human health- Economic and socio-cultural resources

Adaptations and constraints to developing 24adaptive capacity

- Inadequate data or information and technical capacity for timely and effective adaptation planning

- Weak institutional capacity- Limited financial resources

Small island developingStates and climate change

“It is a particular honour, Madame,as amongst our membership aremany countries that have been “firstmovers” in the internationalresponse against climate change.These include:- Maldives, host to one of the first

Ministerial Declarations on theImpacts of Climate Change;

- Malta, sponsor of the UN GeneralAssembly Resolution thatlaunched the Conventionnegotiations;

- Vanuatu, who submitted the firstoutline of elements for aConvention;

- Mauritius, the first state to ratifythe Convention, followed quicklyby Seychelles and the MarshallIslands;

- Trinidad and Tobago, sponsor ofthe AOSIS protocol that spurredthe Berlin Mandate process;

- Fiji and Antigua and Barbuda, thefirst to ratify the Kyoto Protocol;

and the many island States whosedelegations work tirelessly in thisprocess to defend the front line inthe battle against global warming.”

Statement by H.E. T. Neroni Slade (Samoa on behalf of AOSIS)

12 November 1998, Buenos Aires, Argentina (COP 4)

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Small island developing States (SIDS) have long beenrecognized by the international community as a specialcase whose needs and concerns have to be addressed (seebox 1). Although these countries are among the leastresponsible for climate change, they are likely to suffermost from its adverse effects and could in some caseseven become uninhabitable. This is what makes them aspecial case requiring the help and attention of theinternational community.

Forty-one SIDS are currently Parties to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and29 are also signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. Many SIDSare members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS),and 11 are listed as least developed countries (LDCs). Seefigure 1 for an illustration of how small island nations are represented in the various negotiating groups of theUNFCCC.

SIDS have not only focused their attention on negotiationsof the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol over the course ofthe past 10 years; they have also taken a lead inimplementing the Convention.

Box 1. Small island developing States in the international arenaThe unique situation of small island developing States (SIDS) wasacknowledged at the United Nations Conference on Environment andDevelopment in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Governments agreed thatconcerted action was needed to address development for the sake offuture generations.

In 1994, in Barbados, the Global Conference on the SustainableDevelopment of Small Island Developing States included specificactions and measures at the national, regional and international levelsin support of sustainable development. The particular vulnerability ofSIDS to climate change, climate variability and sea-level rise featuredprominently in the Barbados Programme of Action, which identifiedpriority areas and indicated the specific actions needed to address thespecial challenges faced by the governments of these countries.

The urgency for action to address the special needs of SIDS byimplementing the Barbados Programme of Action and the outcome ofthe twenty-second special session of the General Assembly were bothrecognized by the United Nations Millennium Summit in 2000, whengovernments pledged to address the special needs of SIDS “rapidly andin full” by 2015. The Summit also urged the international community toensure that, in the development of a vulnerability index, the specialneeds of SIDS were taken into account.

In 2002, the World Summit on Sustainable Development highlightedthe fact that SIDS are a special case both for environment and fordevelopment by stating that although the governments of thesecountries continue to take the lead in the path towards sustainabledevelopment in their countries, they are increasingly constrained by theinterplay of numerous adverse factors.

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To meet their obligations under the UNFCCC, all Partiesmust report in national communications information oncircumstances related to the achievements of the objectiveof the Convention and must detail their greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions as well as efforts to address climatechange and report on their vulnerability and adaptationoptions.

SIDS were among the first to complete initial nationalcommunications and submit them to the Conference ofthe Parties (see figure 2). This report is based on theinformation provided in those national communications aswell as from reports of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change and the Global Environment Facility andother regional and bilateral financial and technical supportfacilities.

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Cape VerdeComorosGuinea- BissauHaitiMaldivesSamoaSåo Tome and PríncipeSolomonIslands

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AOSISGroup of 77and China

KiribatiTuval

Antigua and BarbudaBahamasBarbados

CubaDominicaFijiGrenada

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Micronesia (Federates States of)PalauPapua New GuineaSaint Kitts and NevisSaint LuciaSaint Vincent and the Grenadines

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CookIslandsCyprusMalta

NauruNiue

BahrainDominican Republic

Singapore

TongaTrinidad and Tobago

Suriname

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Vanuatu

Figure 1: SIDS groups within the negotiating groups of theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Figure 2: SIDS submission of initial nationalcommunications by year and by region

A profile of small islanddeveloping States

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“Already, warming of Pacific oceanwater of three degrees has beenmeasured in the Pacific. Plankton –the tiny single cell plants andanimals that are the basis of theocean food web in northern latitudesand the source of at least half theoxygen we breathe – are dying. Zooplankton in the northeast Pacifichave declined by 80% since 1950. Inthe southern oceans, coral reefs aredying, perhaps because of oceanwarming, threatening biologicalproductivity in tropical seas.” “It is [therefore] not just islandpeople who are at risk from climatechange: 60% of humanity live incoastal areas and therefore sharevulnerability to climate change andsea level rise. Low lying coastal areasin all countries are threatened,including agriculturally productiveriver deltas world wide.”

Statement by H.E. T. Neroni Slade (Samoa on behalf of AOSIS)

28 March - 7 April 1995, Berlin, Germany (COP 1)

Although small island developing States are among theleast responsible of all nations for climate change, they arelikely to suffer strongly from its adverse effects and couldin some cases even become uninhabitable. This is whatmakes them such a special case requiring the help andattention of the international community.

These island nations are found throughout the world,although most of them are located in the wider Caribbeanand South Pacific regions. The land: sea ratios for the SIDSare largely skewed. Their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs)are often larger than their land area. Nauru’s EEZ, forexample, is nearly 15,000 times the size of its land area,whereas Samoa’s is eight. Many SIDS – the Maldives, forexample – have solely or mostly low-lying land areas;others, such as Haiti, have a varied terrain, includingmountainous areas. Their population densities differ widelyas well (see box 2).

Ninety per cent of the SIDS are in the tropics. Many areseasonally affected by extreme weather events – tropicalstorms, cyclones and hurricanes. Climate variability,droughts and flooding are also features of their weatherpattern. El Niño Southern Oscillation events also producedramatic changes in rainfall, rising sea levels and otherweather-related phenomena.

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Box 2. The widely varying population densities of small islanddeveloping States

An estimated 50 million people live in small island developing States,based on population data for various years covering the period1990–2002. The average SIDS is fairly densely populated, yet thedifferences between countries in this respect are large. The largestcountry – Papua New Guinea – has a population density of about 1inhabitant per square kilometre of land area whereas one of thesmallest, Singapore, has nearing 5,000 persons per square kilometre.

SIDS benefit in different ways from an intimaterelationship with the oceans. Singapore, for instance,makes use of its strategic geographic position within theglobal trading system. Other countries – the MarshallIslands and Tuvalu, to mention just two – depend on theirfish resources. And for many SIDS, sea-related tourism hasbecome a mainstay of the economy.

Almost all SIDS depend heavily on fossil fuels. The use offossil fuels includes not only power production and thedesalination of water, but also transport, including touristsas well as to move goods; the main source of foreignexchange; and the exploitation of marine resources. SomeSIDS, for example Bahrain and Trinidad and Tobago, alsoproduce and export fossil fuels.

Renewable sources of energy, such as fuelwood, sugarcanebagasse, hydropower and solar water heating, are alsobeing exploited. Indeed, SIDS have a long history ofrenewable energy use in the agricultural sector, where insome countries wind turbines were traditionally used topump water and drive machinery for such activities aspressing sugarcane. The use of renewable energy is oftenstill directly linked to agriculture. Biomass, in the form offuelwood and bagasse, mainly from the production ofsugarcane, is the main source of renewable energy thesedays. Noteworthy is also the use of hydropower inDominica and Haiti and the use of solar water heating inAntigua and Barbuda and Barbados. In the latter countrysome 35,000 solar water heaters are in use as a directconsequence of the government’s incentives thatencouraged their installation.

Many SIDS have considerable potential for furtherdevelopment of renewable energy by virtue of theirlocation, an abundance of sunshine that gives rise to wind,and adequate rain and plant life that can be tapped forenergy. In addition, the presence of geothermal springs,vents and other geo- and hydrothermal resources on landas well as in the ocean increases the potential sources ofenergy production in most SIDS. Future developmentscould therefore include the increased use of wind, solarand geothermal power as well as ocean thermal and tidalenergy conversion. Efforts to increase the use of renewableenergy, especially wind turbines, are commonly cited asone of the technology options for breaking SIDS relianceon fossil fuels.

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Financial and technicalsupport for small islanddeveloping States

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“… my Government realizes that it isnot going to be an easy task for us toimplement the Convention withoutthe cooperation of the developedcountries. We request that financialassistance from bilateral andmultilateral sources be madeavailable and accessible forcountries like the Republic ofVanuatu for programs that willenhance sustainable developmentand also contribute to theimplementation of the Convention.”

Statement by Hon. Dr. Edward Tambisari (Republic of Vanuatu)

27 March - 7 April 1995, Berlin, Germany (COP 1)

One of the principal channels of support for small islanddeveloping States (SIDS) in the area of climate change isthe Global Environment Facility (GEF) Trust Fund. Withresources made available through this channel, but alsousing resources of their own and those obtained frommultilateral and bilateral sources, SIDS have been able toundertake a number of important activities designed notonly to meet their reporting obligations under theConvention, but also to take early action in the area ofclimate change.

SIDS have sought and obtained resources for building theirnational capacities and institutions in areas relevant toclimate change. Many countries have used these resourcesto establish climate change committees that can guidenational efforts in this area, develop national climatechange action plans and mitigation strategies, and initiateeducation, training, and public awareness campaignsdesigned to engage the general populace on the problemof climate change. Supported by this institutional setup,SIDS have been active in developing and participating in anumber of regional cooperation activities designed to helpbuild capacity for conducting vulnerability and adaptationassessments, to mainstream climate change considerationinto developing planning, to cope and adapt to the adverseeffects of climate change and to develop renewable energysources.

One example of regional cooperation on climate change isthe Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change(CPACC) programme. With resources obtained from theGEF trust fund, Caribbean SIDS cooperated in identifying

strategies to cope with adverse effects of climate change,particularly sea level rise. In addition, work was undertakento develop an integrated management and planningframework for cost-effective responses and adaptation toclimate change in coastal and marine areas, to providetraining and institutional strengthening that couldenhance regional and national capacities, and to identifyand assess policy options. Based on the success of theseinitial activities, the Caribbean SIDS went on to create asub-regional institution that will be dedicated tosupporting action in the region on climate change.

Regional cooperation programmes, with the support of theGEF, are also under way in the area of renewable energy, inthe Caribbean and the Pacific. These programmes aredesigned to remove barriers to renewable energy use andto facilitate the promotion of the widespreadimplementation of renewable energy technologies. Withthese programmes in place, the Pacific and Caribbeanregions hope to increase the use of renewable energy inthe years to come. In the Caribbean, for example,renewable energy provides less than 2 percent of theregion’s commercial electricity. The planned activities beingundertaken, are projected to increase that figure to some 5percent by 2015, resulting in an annual reduction ofcarbon dioxide emissions by some 680,000 tons.

In 2001, two new funds – the Least Developed Countries(LDC) Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) –were established, and an Adaptation Fund was set upunder the Kyoto Protocol. Collectively, these constituteimportant new channels for mobilizing resources to

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support the implementation of climate change activities inSIDS in addition to those available through the GEF TrustFund, through bilateral and multilateral funding, andthrough private-sector investments.

Of the three funds, only the LDC Fund was operational bythe end of 2002 – supporting, among other efforts, thepreparation and implementation of national adaptationprogrammes of action (NAPAs). When completed, thesewill serve to identify key and urgent adaptation needs inLDCs, such as capacity-building, policy reform, integrationof climate change considerations into sectoral policies, andproject-level activities in key economic sectors. Totalcontributions of USD 32.5 million had been received; USD11 million was spent to support the preparation of NAPAs.Ten SIDS that are also LDCs have received assistance inpreparing these programmes of action. The GEF continuesto mobilize additional resources to replenish the LDC Fundso that it can support the implementation of NAPAprojects designed to address urgent and immediateclimate-change-related action in eligible countries.

In 2003, the Conference of the Parties decided that theresources of the Special Climate Change Fund wouldinitially be used to support priority activities in adaptationand technology transfer and in associated capacity-building. At the end of 2004, the SCCF becameoperational, and pledges of USD 34.7 million had beenreceived. Ready to support eligible activities in early 2005,the SCCF becomes an important source of funding foraction by SIDs in the areas of adaptation and technologytransfer.

With the Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force on February 16,2005, two new and important sources of funding willbecome available to SIDS: the Adaptation Fund and theClean Development Mechanism (CDM). The AdaptationFund will be operationalized by the GEF with proceedsfrom CDM projects and with contributions from donorcountries. Its resources will assist SIDS meet the costs ofadaptation to the adverse effects of climate change.

The Clean Development Mechanism offers an opportunityto mobilize additional resources for the implementation ofprojects in SIDS that help mitigate climate change and atthe same time advance sustainable development. It isexpected that implementation of small-scale CDMprojects, especially in the area of renewable energy, energyefficiency, fossil-fuel switching, agriculture, landfills, andlow GHG emission vehicles, will channel additionalresources to promote the transfer of environmentally safeand sound technology and know-how apart from thoseavailable under the GEF Trust Fund and the SCCF.

These are just a few examples of concrete actions beingundertaken by SIDS both to contribute to the ClimateChange Convention and to take steps to mitigate theinevitable impacts of climate change. Small islanddeveloping States contribute very little to global warming.On average, the SIDS emit just 1.5 per cent as much GHGsas industrial countries do.

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Contributions to global warming

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“We are not endowed with anynatural resources. Our day-to-dayenergy need is totally dependent onimported fossil fuels. While notobligated to set emission controltargets under the Convention,Singapore has already investedmillions of dollars to contain ourCO2 emissions.”“ We have made conscious effort tolimit greenhouse gas emissions dueto power generation. Switching fromfuel oil to natural gas is an effectivemeasure to reduce CO2 emission.” “In the transport sector, we haveactively discouraged private carownership and promoted the use ofpublic transport. As part ofgovernment’s continual effort tohelp mitigate global warming, wehave recently announced theintroduction “green” vehicle taxincentive in 2001 to encourage theimport of electric and hybridvehicles.”“ On the energy demand side wehave formed an interagencyCommittee on Energy Efficiency(IACEE) to take acritical look atSingapore’s energy consumption”

Statement by Singapore21 November 2000, The Hague, Netherlands

(COP 6)

SIDS have a very low level of GHG emissions

The total aggregated reported emissions from SIDS areextremely low, 258.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxideequivalent in 1994 (see table 1). In contrast, industrializedcountries that are Parties to the UNFCCC emitted 16.7billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent that year.

SIDS have a rather unusual distribution of GHGemissions

In the sectoral distribution of aggregated GHG emissions inSIDS, the agriculture and energy sectors togetheraccounted for about 90 per cent of total emissions in 1994(see figure 3). Emissions from the waste and industrialprocesses sectors were not insignificant, however.

The profile of the GHG emissions of SIDS is also quitedifferent from that of industrial nations. In terms ofaggregated emissions (in carbon dioxide equivalent) in1994 (or the closest year available) nitrous oxide appearsto be the largest GHG emitted (47 per cent of the totalaggregated emissions), compared with carbon dioxide at41 per cent, followed by methane (12 per cent). This is insharp contrast to industrialized countries, where carbondioxide is the dominant GHG.

SIDS have limited capacities to report on GHG emissions

The comprehensiveness of reporting on GHG inventoriesvaries widely among all Parties to the Convention; in thecase of SIDS, the full range of sectors – energy, industrialprocesses, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, andwaste – is seldom included; generally only a few sectorsare covered, mainly energy. The type of gas reported is alsogenerally rather limited; sometimes only one or two gasesare reported on, with carbon dioxide being the mostcommon.

Figure 3: Aggregate greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LUCF) for SIDS, by sectors

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Aggregate emissions, by gas

Region Country CO2 CH4 N2O(thousand tonnes)

Africa Cape Verde* 218 69 6Comoros 71 55 393Mauritius* 1 738 97 224Seychelles* 179 54 24Total Africa 2 206 275 647

Asia and The Pacific

Cook Islands 33 11 37Kiribati 19 9 -Maldives 129 24 -

Marshall Islands*** - - -Micronesia (Federated States of) 236 7 3Nauru 28 7 0Niue 4 441 14 28Palau 86 32 7Papua New Guinea 1 141 90 3 782Samoa 102 69 389Singapore 26 800 - 59Solomon Islands 294 - -Tuvalu 5 1 0Vanuatu 55 235 9Total Asia and the Pacific 33 369 499 4314

Latin America and the Caribbean

Antigua and Barbuda** 288 98 2Bahamas 1 866 21 310Barbados 1 913 1 788 50Belize 598 5 566 171Cuba 23 497 9 356 5 248Dominica 77 63 13Dominican Republic 15 003 4 660 778Grenada 135 1 471 1Guyana 1 446 885 375Haiti 157 2 455 2 297Jamaica 8 561 1 222 106 443Saint Kitts and Nevis 71 59 34Saint Lucia 269 596 22Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 95 62 222Trinidad and Tobago** 14 987 1 116 239Total LAC 68 963 29 418 116 205

Other Malta 2 310 342 17Total other 2 310 342 17

Total SIDS 258 565Total Annex I Parties (Industrialized countries) 16 719 707

106 848 30 534 121 183

13 581 320 2 057 727 1 080 660

* 1995 data.** 1990 data.*** Marshall Islands did not provide national estimates of its anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of GHGs not controlled by the

Montreal Protocol.

Table 1. Aggregate greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LUCF), small island developing States, 1994 or closest year

A special vulnerability to climate change

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“The sea is our very close neighbour.In fact, on the island where I live,Funafuti, it is possible to throw astone from one side of the island tothe other. Our islands are very lowlying. When a cyclone hits us there isno place to escape. We cannot climbany mountains or move away to takerefuge. It is hard to describe theeffects of a cyclonic storm surgewhen it washes right across ourislands. I would not want to wishthis experience on anyone. Thedevastation is beyond description …This concern is so serious for ourpeople, that the Cabinet, in which Iam a member, has been exploringthe possibility of buying land in anear-by country, in case we becomerefugees to the impacts of climatechange.”

Statement by Hon. Teleke P. Lauti (Tuvalu)

November 2000, The Hague, Netherlands(COP 6)

In spite of variations in geographical, physical, climatic,social, political, cultural and ethnic features and economicdevelopment, small island developing States share certaincharacteristics that underscore their overall vulnerability toclimate change, climate variability and sea-level rise: • Generally limited natural resources, with many already

heavily stressed from unsustainable human activities• A concentration of population, socio-economic

activities, and infrastructure along the coastal zone• High susceptibility to frequent and more intense tropical

cyclones (hurricanes) and to associated storm surge,droughts, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions

• Dependence on water resources for freshwater supplythat are highly sensitive to sea-level changes

• Relative isolation and great distance to major markets,affecting competitiveness in trade

• Extreme openness of small economies and highsensitivity to external shocks

• Generally high population densities and in some caseshigh population growth rates

• Inadequate infrastructure in most sectors• Limited physical size, effectively eliminating some

adaptation options to climate change and sea-level rise• Insufficient financial, technical and institutional

capacities, seriously limiting the capacity of SIDS tomitigate and adapt to any adverse impacts of climatechange.

A few examples of the vulnerabilities in specific islandsillustrate well this high level of susceptibility to theadverse impacts of climate change:• In Barbados and many other islands, almost all foods,

fuels, construction materials and other goods areimported

• In the Maldives and Papua New Guinea, some 50–80 percent of the land area is less than 1 metre above meansea level

• In the Seychelles, about 80 per cent of theinfrastructure and population are found along the coast

• Critically limited resources are required to addresspressing short-term environmental problems in Grenada

• In Palau, prolonged droughts are experienced during ElNiño Southern Oscillation events

• Throughout the South Pacific region, frequent and moreintense tropical cyclones, as well as climate-related andother extreme events, were experienced during the1990s.

Due to the geographic location of the SIDS and theprofound influences of oceanic circulation systems, naturalprecipitation varies from one year to the next much morethan in other countries. This can lead to various forms ofextreme rainfall events, such as droughts and floods, thathave a wide range of adverse impacts – including somecatastrophic damages – on natural and human systems.

Climate projections suggest that significant climatechange and sea-level rise are expected in all regionsduring the twenty-first century. Increases in atmosphericconcentrations of GHGs due to human activities over the

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past 100 years will continue to alter the climate andrelated systems on Earth in the coming century, if not forlonger. Subsequently, SIDS face the certain prospect ofincreased challenges to their efforts to achieve sustainabledevelopment.

Indeed, an ensemble of climate model simulations forseasonal temperature and rainfall changes in the fourregions by the 2050s and 2080s project the followingchanges:• Temperature increase is projected for all regions and for

both seasons• Warming over the Mediterranean and the Caribbean Sea

areas is higher during northern hemisphere winters forboth time periods, whereas warming in the other tworegions exhibits different seasonal patterns for the2050s and 2080s

• For the 2080s, SIDS in the Mediterranean area areprojected to experience the highest warming, withsurface air temperature rising by 3.9ºC for December –February and 4.5ºC for June – August

• Projections show a dominantly increased pattern inseasonal rainfall for the four regions, with islands in theMediterranean area getting the most increase in rainfallduring northern hemisphere winters (by the 2080s, 16per cent higher than the 1961–1990 average level)

• The largest decline in seasonal rainfall is projected forSIDS in the Caribbean area, with a reduction duringnorthern hemisphere summers of nearly 20 per cent.

These projected changes are likely to exacerbate thecurrent climate-related stresses in various SIDS. Highertemperatures are expected to adversely affect the healthof some island inhabitants who already suffer throughheat waves and associated increased outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The health of important marine speciessuch as coral reefs will also suffer. Changes in seasonalrainfall patterns may take the form of more frequent andmore intense droughts and floods for many of the alreadytroubled SIDS.

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments undertaken bySIDS also support the prediction that sea level will riseworldwide as a consequence of climate change. This isconsistent with the conclusions of the Third AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,which indicated that by the end of the twenty-firstcentury global sea level will rise 9–88 centimetresdepending on regional variations in ocean circulation andother geophysical conditions. Sea-level rise will vary acrossthe planet, with some regions (such as the Pacific)experiencing a greater increase than the global average.

Although natural systems and people living in SIDS havedeveloped a wide range of adaptive strategies andmeasures to cope with a certain degree of change inclimate and sea level, in many of these nations theenvironment and various biological systems are alreadyclose to their tolerance limits or are experiencing climate-related stress. Their vulnerability to climate change –already high – thus worsens with each passing year.

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Potential impacts ofclimate change

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“The Maldives is an archipelagoconsisting of tiny islands scatteredin a vast expanse of the IndianOcean. Over 80% of the land areahave less than one meter abovemean sea level, climate change andits associated sea level rise wouldundoubtedly be a catastrophe andthreaten the livelihood of theislanders in the Maldives alike manythousands of others in low-lyingisland states. Sixteen years ago inApril 1987, Maldives experiencedunusual high waves causingextensive damage to the islands.Two thirds of the whole Maldives,including the capital island, Malé,was inundated for two days causingextensive damage to theinfrastructure. Male InternationalAirport, the only gateway to theMaldives, was closed for two days,causing delays in receiving the reliefassistance from the internationalcommunity, cancellation of touristarrivals and lot more.”

Statement by Mr. Abdullahi Majeed(Maldives)

11 December 2003, Milan, Italy (COP 9 Round-Table )

Climate change is likely to have far-ranging effects on theenvironment and the economic prospects of small islanddeveloping States, as well as on the health of the peopleliving in these areas.

Water resources

The availability of freshwater is a major limiting factor foreconomic and social development in the SIDS (see box 3).Many of these countries rely entirely on a single source ofwater supply, making them highly vulnerable to climaticand other environmental changes.

In island States where rainwater is the primary source ofsupply, water availability is sensitive to rainfall patternsand changes in storm tracks. A reduction in rainfallcoupled with sea-level rise, changes in El Niño intensityand frequency, and changes in rainfall seasonality woulddecrease the volume of drinking water, reduce the size ofthe thin freshwater lens. Additional water managementand related challenges due to climate variability, climatechange and sea-level rise include increased flood risks,impeded drainage and the presence of elevated watertables.

The coastal environment

The loss of land along coastlines due to sea-level rise,especially on atolls and low limestone islands, is likely todisrupt all the economic and social sectors in thesecountries. Coastal erosion will have profound adverseimpacts on the tourism industry and on infrastructure.

“The older generation tells us that certain parts of the reefswere above water when they were young. Every year thestorms are getting worse, both more intense anddestructive. Sea water contaminates many of our preciousfresh water lenses.”

Statement by Hon. Tom D. Kijiner (Marshall Islands)

6 April 1995, Berlin, Germany (COP 1)

Box 3. Impacts of climate change, climate variability, and sea-levelrise on water availability and quality in small island developingStates

Climate change and sea-level rise are likely to threaten freshwaterresources through saltwater intrusion within freshwater aquifers. Thefrequency and severity of droughts, as experienced in recent decades,may intensify in the future. Countries such as the Bahamas andBarbados, which are almost entirely dependent on groundwatersupplies, will be seriously affected. Mauritius depends on groundwaterfor 60 per cent of its water supply for domestic, industrial andagricultural purposes. Boreholes situated near the coast will be at riskdue to saltwater intrusion.

Water resources will be threatened by a combination of droughts andlower rates of recharge of the groundwater lens on most atolls, such asthe Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati and Tuvalu.

Sea-level rise, along with the indiscriminate extraction of freshwaterfrom the well fields, will put this already threatened resource at evenhigher risk in SIDS that depend on the extraction of water from shallowfreshwater lenses, as the Bahamas does.

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Human activities such as sand mining, coastal and beacherosion is already a problem on many islands – a problemthat is likely to be exacerbated by sea-level rise. PapuaNew Guinea reports that 25 per cent of its existingshoreline has already been inundated. If sea level rises by 1metre, the Maldives will disappear entirely, and in Grenada,up to 60 per cent of the beaches would disappear in someareas following a 50-centimetre sea-level rise.

Coral reefs have a huge influence on the lives of people inmany SIDS. They function as natural breakwaters along thecoasts of many tropical islands and they represent one ofthe most important natural resources for food, beach sand,and building materials. They also provide habitats formarine animals and reef fish, generating significantrevenues for many island economies through touristsinterested in snorkeling and scuba diving. On many islands,coral reefs are already facing threats from climate changeand other stresses; Dominica, for example, reports that 15per cent of its coral reef is showing some signs ofbleaching.

Due to their narrow temperature tolerances, some speciesof corals currently live at or near their thermal limits.Projected increases in sea surface temperature suggest thethermal tolerance of reef-building corals will be exceededwithin the next few decades. Moreover, the incidence ofbleaching may rise rapidly (see box 4).

Mangrove forests, another coastal resource, have diverseand important ecological and socio-economic functions,providing protection against cyclones, storms, tides, storm

Box 4. Extreme weather events induced by sea-water warming ascause of large-scale coral bleaching

The 1998 El Niño caused sea-water temperatures to increase by1.0–1.25ºC in Palau over several weeks, which was followed by massivecoral bleaching. During September 1998, the water temperaturereached the level capable of inducing coral bleaching to a depth of 90metres. Almost 70 per cent of Scleractinian corals were bleached at a10–12 metre depth throughout Palau. Populations of some coral speciesdeclined by as much as 99 per cent, with an economic loss estimatedat USD 91 million.

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surges and the introduction of pests and exotic insects.They also function as nutrient sinks for animal and plantproductivity, as soil stabilization forces, and as a source ofwood products. However, many mangrove forests are understress from excessive exploitation, reducing resilience tothe projected rise in sea level (see box 5).

Agriculture and food security

Subsistence agriculture is vital to SIDS economies,nutritional status and social well-being, particularly thelow-lying atoll countries where food security is a majorconcern. Currently, subsistence agricultural production onsome islands is already under stress from, for example, ashortage of freshwater. With climate change, the growthof subsistence root crops and vegetables is likely to beaffected by heat stress, by changes in soil moisture andevapotranspiration, and by changes in extreme weatherevents, such as tropical cyclones, floods and droughts.Moreover, sea-level rise and its consequent saline intrusionwill have major impacts on crop production, especially inlow islands and atolls in the Pacific, where all the cropagriculture is found on or near the coast (see box 6).

Fisheries resources make a significant contribution to theprotein intake of island populations. In tropical islands,marine ecosystems such as coral reefs, sea grasscommunities and salt ponds are important forage sites fora variety of fish species. The availability of fish can beaffected by changes in water temperatures and thedistribution of food sources they depend on. Theunfavourable effects of higher carbon dioxide

Box 5. Exacerbation of stresses on mangrove forests

Antigua and Barbuda is currently losing its mangrove ecosystems at anannual average rate of about 1.5–2 per cent, with a sea-level rise of3–4 millimetres a year. Based on this, it is estimated that there will befew, if any, mangroves left in this nation by 2075, because the coastalslopes of most areas will not allow for landward retreat of these trees.If the sea level rises 10 millimetres a year, mangroves could disappearfrom Antigua and Barbuda by as early as 2030 or 2035.

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concentrations on these ecosystems, coupled with ongoingwidespread coral bleaching, pose serious threats to theresilience and livelihood in many small island States.

Biodiversity

The long-term survival of the generally rich biodiversity onsmall islands has already been under threat from suchhuman-related stresses as pollution, overexploitation andpoor management. As in other regions, climate change willhave direct and indirect impacts on the biodiversity ofSIDS. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide would alterthe composition of species and threaten the diversity ofmarine ecosystems such as coral reefs, the habitats ofendangered species and the breeding sites of sea birds.Sea-level rise could put such species at considerable risk.

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“The extreme rainfall of 1997 cost Seychelles several milliondollars in loss of agriculture and infrastructure. This year, asa result of an anomalous warming of the sea, corals wereextensively bleached. The effects are still seriously felt infishery. And as I speak to you now, if current droughtconditions persist, jobs will be lost through critical water-dependents industries, such as industrial tuna processingand tourism.”

Statement by SeychellesNovember 1998, Buenos Aires, Argentina

(COP 4)Box 6. Declines in food and fishery production expected

Unfavourable climatic conditions could be devastating to the bananaindustry and to the agricultural sector as a whole in St. Vincent andthe Grenadines. Climate change, particularly changes in precipitationand atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, is likely to result inchanges in altitudinal zonation, species type, vegetation type andlocation. Moreover, sea-level rise and increased ocean temperaturescoupled with marine pollution will have a substantial impact on themajor nurseries of the fishing industry, such as mangroves and seagrass beds.

An increase in the frequency or intensity of El Niño events wouldadversely affect agricultural production, with the possibility of greaterreliance on imported foods. Fish production has been reduced by up to60 per cent in Grenada and in the Marshall Islands during an El Niñoyear.

Human settlements and infrastructure

In most SIDS, narrow coastal plains provide attractivelocations for human settlements and a variety ofinfrastructure – social services, tourism facilities, airports,port facilities, roads and vital utilities – to supporteconomic and social needs. With the projected rate of sea-level rise and changes in the patterns of extreme eventssuch as storms and coastal flooding, these settlements andcritical infrastructure will be at severe risk (see box 7).In some countries, particularly low islands and micro-atolls, resettlement outside the national boundary mayhave to be considered. Implementing this could becomeextremely complicated, however, especially for denselypopulated coastal lowlands. In extreme circumstances,some atolls may be abandoned altogether, which could besocially and culturally disruptive as well as resource-intensive and which may be well beyond what most ofthese atoll countries can afford.

Human health

Many SIDS lie in the tropical zone, where the climate isfavourable for the transmission of tropical diseases such asmalaria, dengue, filariasis and schistosomiasis. In recentyears, tropical islands have experienced high incidences ofvector- and water-borne diseases that were attributed tochanges in temperature and rainfall patterns, which maybe linked to events such as El Niño, droughts and floods.With a warming climate and disrupted water supplies andsanitation systems due to droughts and cyclones, therecould be even more of an increase in the incidence of

Box 7. Susceptibility of critically important settlements andinfrastructure to extreme weather events

In Dominica, 90 per cent of the population lives along the coastal area.Most of these settlements have very little room for expansion exceptthrough hillside residential development – areas that are highlysusceptible to the ravages of extreme events such as hurricanes.

All of the human settlement, industry and vital infrastructure ofKiribati, the Maldives, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu lie very close to theshoreline. Some islands are already severely affected, with losses notonly of shoreline but also of houses, schools and other infrastructure.The Maldives will disappear entirely if the rate of sea-level rise exceedsthe rate of coral growth and sand generation.

Most of the public infrastructure in Niue is situated on the westerncoast of the island, which is very susceptible to cyclone damage.Devastation by Cyclone Ofa in 1990 highlighted the vulnerability of theisland; there was extensive damage to the general hospital, a hotel, awharf and a number of private homes on the western coast.

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these diseases. Malaria, for instance, is associated with atemperature above 22ºC.

Outbreaks of water-borne diseases such as shigellosis,cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and amoebiasis could increaseas a result of disruption of sewage and water supplysystems. With changes in temperature and rainfall, somevectors could extend their current range, so there is likelyto be wider transmission of some diseases (see box 8). Theinterior highlands of many islands are currently free ofvectors that transmit malaria, dengue and other tropicaldiseases. They could become favourable breeding sitesunder climate change. An increase in the frequency andintensity in extreme weather events might also cause morephysical injuries, as noted already in some Pacific islandStates.

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“ we pointed out that our region already suffers heavily froma high incidence of tropical cyclones, and that rising sealevels, coupled with the anticipated increases in thefrequency, and intensity of these cyclones, as a result ofglobal warming, would effectively devastate most, if not all,of our vital infrastructure, and threaten the lives of amajority of our population. In the short time since Kyoto, wehave experienced two of the most devastating hurricanesthe region has ever suffered – Georges and Mitch.”

Statement by Hon. Vincent Lasse (Trinidad and Tobago on behalf of CARICOM and Haiti)

12 November 1998, Buenos Aires, Argentina (COP 4)

Box 8. Possibility of severe health problems due to extremeweather changes in rainfall patterns or temperatures

In Kiribati, any change in the pattern of rainy and dry seasons, intemperature and in the moisture content of waste could trigger anincrease in diseases, and new diseases might occur. A warmer climatecould exceed the tolerable climate conditions for humans.

Preliminary analysis of the incidences of the three most commondiseases in Grenada – influenza, viral conjunctivitis and gastroenteritis– indicates a close correlation with July and annual precipitation.Significant positive correlations are observed for August precipitationand the incidence of viral conjunctivitis and influenza. Thus changes inrainfall patterns during such critical periods will have considerableimpacts on human health, comfort and welfare.

Economic and socio-cultural resources

For most SIDS, tourism is an important contributor tonational economies, foreign exchange inflows, andemployment. For example, tourism accounts for 95 percent of the gross national product in the Maldives, and 70per cent of the labour force in the Bahamas is employed inthe tourism sector.

Tourism could be disrupted through the loss of beaches,coastal inundation, degradation of coastal ecosystems,saline intrusion, damage to critical infrastructures, and thebleaching of coral reefs. Physical loss and damage tocoasts and infrastructure in SIDS coupled with theprojected milder winters in North America and northernEurope, would threaten the tourism industry by reducingthe appeal of the islands as favourable destinations. Inaddition, the tourism industry may suffer from climatechange mitigation measures, such as levies on aviationemissions which would increase the cost of air travel.

Climate change could have other direct and indirecteconomic and social impacts in some SIDS. The insuranceindustry is among the most sensitive to changes in thefrequency and intensity of extreme weather events such astropical storms and floods. Any increase in frequency ormagnitude of such phenomena would trigger an increasein insurance premiums or lead to the withdrawal ofcoverage, as islands in the Caribbean have experiencedafter a series of severe hurricanes.

Climate change and sea-level rise will also put certaintraditional island assets at risk, including subsistence,traditions, community structure, and coastal villages andsettlements. Although it is difficult to attach a marketvalue to some of these assets, they are of vital significanceto SIDS. Sea-level rise and climate change, coupled withother environmental changes, have already been blamedfor the destruction of some important and unique culturaland spiritual sites, coastal protected areas, and traditionalheritage sites in several Pacific islands.

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Adaptation and constraints to developingadaptive capacity

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“I believe the experiences of ournation is quite similar to those ofother small island developing States;and it means that we’ve alreadybegun to experience the effects ofclimate change that for the mostpart, industrialized countries havebrought upon us. The fear ofsubmergence is not mere sciencefiction though that is all too easy forsceptics to dismiss.I have no doubt that at currentlevels of emissions of greenhousegases (or even at levels where thereis only a nominal decrease in thelevel of emissions of greenhousegases) submergence is a possibility.The primary point is, however, that along, long time before that point isreached, our reefs could be dead, ourfishes fleeing, our groundwatercompletely salinated, our food cropsdepleted and our islands madeinhabitable. Needless to say, oureconomies destroyed.”

Statement by Hon. Isaac V. Figir (Federated States of Micronesia)30 March 1995, Berlin, Germany

(COP 1)

Enhancing adaptive capacity is critical for the small islanddeveloping States if they are to meet the challenges ofprojected climate change and sea-level rise. Yet climatechange is just one of many pressing problems that mostSIDS face. Their socio-economic concerns include povertyalleviation, high unemployment, and the improvement ofhousing, education and health care facilities – all of whichoften compete for the slender resources available. Underthese circumstances, progress in adaptation to climatechange will almost certainly require the integration ofappropriate risk reduction strategies with other sectoralpolicy initiatives in areas such as sustainable developmentplanning, disaster prevention and management, integratedcoastal management, and health care planning (see box 9).

SIDS recognize that adapting to climate change andvariability could be costly and that in some cases it mayrequire changes in societal norms and behaviour. Given thewide range of uncertainties associated with climatechange and sea-level projections and with vulnerabilityand adaptation assessments, however, a no-regretsprinciple is important in order to use and manage limitedresources in a sustainable manner and to cope with themany changing conditions – including climate change – inSIDS.

In spite of the wide range of adaptation options that couldbe successfully implemented in the SIDS, somefundamental constraints limit the choices of options andtheir implementation. Broadly, these barriers fall into threecategories:

“As an island State, we are at greater ecological and economicalrisks associated with adverse effects of climate change. Wecannot over emphasize what Mauritius stands to lose if climatechange problems are not addressed adequately and in a timelymanner. The threat to agriculture, tourism and fisheries, three ofthe main pillars of our economy, cannot be overestimated.”

Statement by Hon. R. A. Bhagwan (Mauritius)

21 November 2000, The Hague, Netherlands(COP 6)

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Box 9. Examples of adaptation measures identified by some smallisland developing States

• Agriculture – management and infrastructure development(Mauritius)

• Water resources – more efficient management of both demand andsupply; improved monitoring and forecasting systems for floods anddroughts (Seychelles); desalination of sea water (Federated States ofMicronesia, Malta)

• Human settlement and infrastructure – hazard mapping; improvedforecasting and early warning systems; insurance provision (Antiguaand Barbuda)

• Public health – development of a health surveillance and forecastsystem; strengthening of data collection and reporting systems;vaccination campaigns and health education (Saint Kitts and Nevis)

• Tourism – protection of essential facilities and infrastructure as partof the Integrated Coastal Zone Management strategy (Barbados,Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Singapore)

• Coastal zone – integrated, sustainable coastal zone resourcemanagement (Dominica)

Inadequate data or information and technical capacityfor timely and effective adaptation planning

In most SIDS, there is a lack of baseline information forunderstanding the complex interplay between and withinnatural and human systems in small islands. There is also aconsiderable gap in the provision of information on likelychanges in climate and human systems at the small-islandscale. Consequently, most SIDS have not yet been able toundertake an in-depth, nationwide climate change impactand vulnerability assessment in an integrated manner.Without such national assessments as a sound basis fordesigning and planning adaptation policies, strategies andprogrammes, decisions on adaptation will be problematic.

Weak institutional capacity

Given the complex interactions and feedbacks betweennatural and human systems, any decisions on adaptationstrategies must take an integrated approach acrossdifferent sectors. With SIDS facing a variety of pressingeconomic and social challenges, however, there is anurgent need for a well-structured institutional frameworkto address climate change adaptation issues across sectorsand scales. Hence, strengthening institutional capacityremains an important prerequisite for the effectiveplanning and implementation of adaptation strategies atnational level.

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Limited financial resources

Some of the adaptation options identified by SIDS may becostly and beyond their financial capacity (see box 10). Thegovernments of these countries will therefore needinternational assistance to facilitate more detailedresearch into traditional, natural and less intrusive (andgenerally less costly) forms of adaptation.

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“As an island nation, Sao Tome and Principe continues to see ourvery existence threatened by global warming. Our shorelineserode, our national territory shrinks as the seas rise. Is my smallcountry to end up nothing but a tiny volcanic peak sticking upabove the waves with the last of our people clinging to the landleft unclaimed by the rising sea? The Kyoto Protocol must beimplemented by all for the benefit of all.”

Fradique Bandeira de Melo de MenezesPresident, Sao Tome and Principe

24 September 2004, UN General Assembly 59 session

Box 10. Examples of projected costs of adaptation measures

Protecting Jamaica’s coastline from impacts of a sea-level rise of 1metre is estimated to cost USD 462 million annually – 19 per cent ofthe country’s GDP.

In order to protect Male, the capital of the Maldives, from flooding andthe impact of large waves, a system of protective barriers (calledtetrapods) was built at a cost of USD 4,000 per metre. Although thiswas largely financed by the Government of Japan, the project divertedmuch-needed development aid from other key socio-economicpriorities. With projected changes in climate and sea level, maintainingand enhancing such protective structures will be difficult with onlydomestic financial resources.

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“Our Pacific island nations,including my own country, knowfrom bitter experience ofcyclones that regularly batterour region, of the dishearteningeffect of disasters in settingback in a matter of hours hard-earned developmentachievements of many years.SIDS concerns and thevulnerability of our nations aretherefore quite real. While weaccept the primary responsibilityfor achieving the goals of the[Barbados] Programme ofAction, the reality is that thesupport of the internationalcommunity is indispensable tosuccess.”

Tuila’Epa Sailele MalielegaoiPrime Minister, Samoa

24 September 2004, UN General Assembly 59 session

“The catastrophic events of thepresent hurricane season bringinto sharper focus yet anotherdimension of the vulnerability ofCaribbean countries. The January2005 International Meeting inMauritius to review theimplementation of the BarbadosPlan of Action must seek tocomprehensively address the newand emerging threats to thesustainable development of smallisland developing States…[A]whole new set of security issueshave now arisen in theCaribbean as a result of thesedevelopments and theInternational Community mightwish to take note.”

Patrick ManningPrime Minister, Trinidad and Tobago

24 September 2004, UN General Assembly 59 session

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January 2005

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