Slow Boil:Colombia’s response to the chronic

emergency ofclimate vulnerability

Brown UniversityProvidence, 8 April 2011

Outline

1. The rise of climate adaptation in LAC

2. Colombia & the global climate talks

3. Colombia’s climate vulnerability

4. How to shoot the rapids and survive?

The rise of climate adaptation

“It was understood that [the Kyoto Protocol] would only include commitments to reduce emissions…

– Michael Zammit-Cutajar1

“A […] critical element for success in Cancún is to strike a better balance when considering climate adaptation and mitigation”

– Yvo de Boer2

The rise of climate adaptation LAC

Scaled-up interest / participation

Shifting priorities

The rise of climate adaptation

Just 11% of accumulated

global emissions

(1990-2005)

Big differences in GHG emissions…

… but climate vulnerability is a common concern

The rise of climate adaptation

Probabilidad de ocurrencia

Un evento cada X años

Probabilidad de ocurrencia disminuye

Daños

millones USD 2008

Ejemplo curva de vulnerabilidad para inundación en Guyana

Caso extremo 2030

COP 1Berlin1995

COP 6Bonn 2001

COP 10Buenos Aires2004

COP 12Nairobi 2006

Colombia & the global climate talks

< 2006 Niche area (Envt. & Foreign Affairs) CDM / Forests focus

Colombia & the global climate talks

2007 – 2009 Strategic relations w/ ,

like-minded partners beyond LAC (e.g. AOSIS)

Leadership role on adaptation / finance

Pres. Uribe in group of 25 leaders at CPH

Colombia & the global climate talks

2010 < CPH Accord / Cancun pledge Cartagena Dialogue Broader x-Govt participation

Colombia flood emergency, 2010-11• 2.3 million affected in 28 of 32 states• 310 dead• 6,700 homes destroyed

Economic impacts• Short term:

• Crop loss• Food price spike• Localized (household / community impacts)

• Long term:• It depends!?

Failed humanitarian response Late

Poorly coordinated

Inadequate (below international standards)

Colombia’s climate vulnerability

What went wrong? High exposure:

– Yes, but not worst in 60 years…1988 La Niña– Yearly victims in Colombia

Resources:– No, plenty of resources!

Response coordination:– Yes, Politically-bungled– UN didn’t help

Underlying structural vulnerabilities– Yes! Inequality

Persistent failure to embrace ARR

How to shoot the rapids and survive?

1. Embrace ‘disaster risk management’:– Political & operational power of Govt.

disaster management agency– Comprehensive, sustainable, effective

disaster risk management policy:– Sustained investment in local disaster

management capacities– Structural fund for climate adaptation & risk

management

2. Reconcile with countervailing development pathway

Conclusions

1. Climate adaptation, Latin American imperative

2. Colombia, international climate champion

3. Colombia, domestic disaster victim

4. Colombia (and LAC) can build resilience, but only by reconciling divergent paths

Notes

1. Climate Change TV interview (video), June 2009: http://www.climate-change.tv/michael-zammit-cutajar-june-2009

2. “Copenhagen shows we need caution in Cancún,” Nature, 24 November 2010: http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101124/full/468477a.html