Slides on Climate Change:Slides on Climate Change:

Professor Huntting BrownProfessor Huntting BrownWright State UniversityWright State University

September 24, 2008September 24, 2008

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Prof. Brown’s Opening StatementProf. Brown’s Opening Statement

Knowing only the temperature and precipitation patterns that occur in an area, Knowing only the temperature and precipitation patterns that occur in an area, we can generally predict the type of ecosystem that will be found there. (see next we can generally predict the type of ecosystem that will be found there. (see next slide)slide)

►Desert and rainforest ecosystems differ in their plant and animal life.  These and Desert and rainforest ecosystems differ in their plant and animal life.  These and other ecosystems all have their own unique combinations of environmental other ecosystems all have their own unique combinations of environmental requirements, e.g.,  temperature, precipitation, wind, soil type, and topography. requirements, e.g.,  temperature, precipitation, wind, soil type, and topography. ►Long-term changes in either temperature or precipitation will cause an Long-term changes in either temperature or precipitation will cause an ecosystem to change from one type to another.ecosystem to change from one type to another.

►Temperature and precipitation changes are occurring as a result of climate Temperature and precipitation changes are occurring as a result of climate change and both plant and animal species are starting to be impacted.change and both plant and animal species are starting to be impacted.

►Greater changes projected for the future will result in more major impacts, Greater changes projected for the future will result in more major impacts, including a large number of extinctions.including a large number of extinctions.

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http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overviewecosystems.htm

Changes in average temperature 1955-2005.From: IPCC. 2007. WGII. Fig. 14.1

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Examples of Organisms in Trouble NowExamples of Organisms in Trouble Now

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1979

2007

From: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008)

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Polar bears were placed on the US list of threatened species in May 2008. Photo from: www.fws.gov/.../2006/polarbearphotos.html

Credit: Scott Schliebe/USFWS

The Pika is loosing habitat due to a changing climate in the intermountain west.

Photo from: http://fwp.mt.gov/fieldguide/detail_AMAEA01020.aspx88

Coral reefs are often found close to their temperature maximum.http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/Paleoclimatology_CloseUp/

paleoclimatology_closeup_2.html 99

Other Examples of Changes Other Examples of Changes

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Zones assist determining appropriate trees to plant. Based on average low temperatures in 10 F increments. Z6= -10 to 0F

From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm1111

From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm

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From: http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm 1313

Studies showing physical and biological already detected.From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 1.2 1414

Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States Global Change on the United States (2008)(2008)

CurrentlyCurrently► ““Many North American species have shifted their Many North American species have shifted their

ranges, typically to the north or to higher ranges, typically to the north or to higher elevations.”elevations.”

► Research “suggests a significant lengthening of the Research “suggests a significant lengthening of the growing season and higher net productivity in the growing season and higher net productivity in the higher latitudes of North America where higher latitudes of North America where temperature increases are relatively high.”temperature increases are relatively high.”

► Phenology (timing of life cycle events) changes have Phenology (timing of life cycle events) changes have occurred in e.g., birds, butterflies and amphibians. occurred in e.g., birds, butterflies and amphibians.

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Shifts in TimingShifts in Timing

► ““Warmer springs have led to earlier nesting for 28 Warmer springs have led to earlier nesting for 28 migrating bird species on the east coast of the US…migrating bird species on the east coast of the US…

► In northern Canada, red squirrels are breeding 18 In northern Canada, red squirrels are breeding 18 days earlier than 10 years agodays earlier than 10 years ago

► Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10-13 Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10-13 days earlier than a century ago.days earlier than a century ago.

► In lowland California, 70% of 23 butterfly species In lowland California, 70% of 23 butterfly species advance the date of first spring flights by an average advance the date of first spring flights by an average 24 days over 31 years.”24 days over 31 years.”

FromFrom: Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global : Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United StatesChange on the United States (2008), citations omitted. (2008), citations omitted.

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Dayton Area Phenology ChangesDayton Area Phenology Changes

Some Dayton area plants that are blooming earlier than they Some Dayton area plants that are blooming earlier than they did 25 years ago.did 25 years ago.Mouse-ear chickweed: 35 daysMouse-ear chickweed: 35 days

Trillium: 25 daysTrillium: 25 days

Jack-in-the-pulpit: 20 daysJack-in-the-pulpit: 20 days

Dandelions: 17.5 daysDandelions: 17.5 days

Toothwort: 12.5 daysToothwort: 12.5 days

Garlic mustard: 12.5 daysGarlic mustard: 12.5 days

Phlox: 10 daysPhlox: 10 days

Source: Wright State UniversitySource: Wright State University

From: From: Dayton Daily NewsDayton Daily News, September 8, 2008., September 8, 2008.

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Projected Future ChangesProjected Future Changes

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Changes in US Frost Days and Growing Season by 2030. From: US Climate Change Science Program, 2008: Fig. 1.7

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Projected Surface Temperature Changes for the Late 21st CenturyFrom: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. SPM.6

Scenario A1B assumes very rapid economic growth, a global population peaking in mid century and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies, including both fossil intensive and non-

fossil intensive (p. 44)

2020

Projected changes in relative precipitation at the end of the 21st Century.From: IPCC. 2007. Synthesis, Fig. 3.3

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Winter Summer

What we can anticipate if temperatures continue to increase.From: IPCC. 2007. WG II. Fig. 4.4

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Projected Future Global Scale ImpactsProjected Future Global Scale Impacts► ““Resilience of many ecosystems is likely Resilience of many ecosystems is likely

to be exceed this century by an to be exceed this century by an unprecedented combination of climate unprecedented combination of climate change associated disturbances (e.g., change associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, and flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, and ocean acidification) and other global ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, and over exploitation of pollution, and over exploitation of resources).resources).

Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States Global Change on the United States

(2008)(2008)

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► Over the course of this century, net Over the course of this century, net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid century and then likely to peak before mid century and then weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying weaken or even reverse, thus amplifying climate change.climate change.

► Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed global average temperature exceed [preindustrial levels by] 1.5-2.5 C [2.7-4.5 [preindustrial levels by] 1.5-2.5 C [2.7-4.5 F]”F]”

Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States Global Change on the United States

(2008)(2008)

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► ““For increases in global average For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5C and temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5C and accompanying atmospheric carbon accompanying atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, major dioxide (CO2) concentrations, major changes are projected in ecosystem changes are projected in ecosystem structure and function, species’ structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical ranges---with predominantly geographical ranges---with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services such and ecosystem goods and services such as water and food supply.”as water and food supply.”

Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States Global Change on the United States

(2008)(2008)

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Climate Change and Ecosystems: General Climate Change and Ecosystems: General ReferencesReferences

► Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Recent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):Climate Change (2007): http://www.ipcc.ch/#http://www.ipcc.ch/#

► Citizens’ Guide to the IPCC Summary for Policymakers Citizens’ Guide to the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (2007)(2007) http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/http://www.islandpress.com/assets/library/

28_whatipccsaidwithsummary.pdf28_whatipccsaidwithsummary.pdf

► Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report Series Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report Series (2005)(2005) http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/

index.aspxindex.aspx

Ecosystem and Human Well-Being Synthesis (2005)Ecosystem and Human Well-Being Synthesis (2005)► http://www.millenniumassessment.org/http://www.millenniumassessment.org/

documents/document.356.aspx.pdfdocuments/document.356.aspx.pdf

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► Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States (2008)Change on the United States (2008)

http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdfassessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf

Summary and Findings OnlySummary and Findings Only► http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/

scientific-assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-scientific-assessment/6-SA-FAQ-LO-RES.pdfRES.pdf

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Climate Change and EcosystemsClimate Change and EcosystemsDavis, M. B., and R. G. Shaw. 2001. Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to Davis, M. B., and R. G. Shaw. 2001. Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to

Quaternary Climate Change. Quaternary Climate Change. ScienceScience 292292: 673-679.: 673-679.

Nemani, R. R., et al. 2003. Nemani, R. R., et al. 2003. Climate-Driven Increase in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Climate-Driven Increase in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 1982 to 1999. Production from 1982 to 1999. ScienceScience 300300: 1560-1563.: 1560-1563.

Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Across Natural Systems. Impacts Across Natural Systems. NatureNature 421421:37-42.:37-42.

Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. SystAnnu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. . 3737:637-69.:637-69.

Root, T.L., et al. 2003. Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants. Root, T.L., et al. 2003. Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants. NatureNature 421421: 57-60.: 57-60.

Thomas, C. D., et al. 2004. Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Thomas, C. D., et al. 2004. Extinction Risk from Climate Change. NatureNature 427427: 145-: 145-148.148.

  

Walther, G.-R., et al. 2002. Walther, G.-R., et al. 2002. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. NatureNature 416416: 389-95: 389-95..

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2003

Confronting Climate Change in the Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes RegionGreat Lakes Region

Warmer Warmer 5-20 F in Summer5-20 F in Summer 5-12 F in Winter5-12 F in Winter

Seasonal Shift, Overall DrierSeasonal Shift, Overall Drier No change in precipitation, but No change in precipitation, but

higher temperature will mean higher temperature will mean greater evaporation and greater evaporation and therefore drier soils, esp. therefore drier soils, esp. Summer and Fall.Summer and Fall.

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More ExtremesMore Extremes DownpoursDownpours Extreme-heat daysExtreme-heat days DroughtsDroughts

Growing SeasonGrowing Season Lengthened by several weeks, Lengthened by several weeks,

but varying cross regionbut varying cross regionLake Levels dropLake Levels drop

More evaporation and declining More evaporation and declining ice coverice cover

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