slide presentation m to mr launch
TRANSCRIPT
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P atts6t
Annua
Cru e
O
Summit
London,14May2013
OECD/IEA2013
OECD/IEA2013
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A pivotal time in oil markets
7.0
mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance
4.0
5.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-1.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Implied OPEC Spare Capac ity World Demand Growth World Supply Capac ity Growth
OECD/IEA2013
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Demand: rise of the non-OECD region
Global Oil Demand Growth7.5%
2.5%
5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
-5.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
OECD Non-OECD
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Transport still drives oil use
but transport gas is around the corner
Global Road Trans ort Sector
60%
80%
100%
,
15 000
20%
40%10 000
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others
5 000
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
OECD Non-OECD
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US & Iraq lead supply growth
mb/dGlobal Liquids Growth 2012-18
0.5
8.48
10
Crude US Light Tight Oil
NGLs Non-Conv
Biofuels Processing Gain
2.31.4
2.0
2.4
.
4
6
1.81.0
2.8..
0OPEC* Non-OPEC Total
* OPEC crude is ca acit additions
Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC
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New trends in capital expenditures
,
w
500
600
80%
90%
100%
)
300
400
40%
50%
60%
70%
Billion
eof
Capex(% Total Capex (RHS)
Other
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Tight Oil
100
200
10%
20%
30%Shar
22%16%
7%
14%
-
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEAAnalysisofRystadEnergy. Oil depositsonly.
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Non-OPEC supply: West Side story
mb/dNon-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
0.6
1.0
.
-0.2
0.2
-1.0
-0.6
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China
Af rica PG & B iofuels Oth er Non-OPEC Total
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OPEC capacity growth hits hurdlesGrowth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d
Chan e in OPEC Crude Oil
0.60.81.01.2
Production Capacity
-0.4-0.20.00.2.
-0.8- .
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Iran IraqUAE Saudi Arabia
er o a
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Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growthIraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline
Incremental OPEC Crude
NigeriaUAE
AngolaIraq
ro uc on apac y -
QatarAlgeria
KuwaitVenezuela
ya
-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
IranSaudi Arabia
cua or
mb/d
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Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d
mb/d
1.5
2.0
.
0.5
1.0
.2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels
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Rise of the non-OECD refining titans
Global CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refining
capacity gets more sophisticated
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
China
45%
OtherAsia14%
LatinAmerica
MiddleEast22%
Other5%
OECD/IEA2013
China leads CDU additions
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N. American refining: focus onupgrading & desulpherisation
0.5
mb/d North American Capacity Additions
0.30.4
0.0
0.1
.
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation
OECD/IEA2013Latin America still an import magnet
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Crude trade contracts, flows shift
Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)
xc u es n ra- eg ona ra e
OECD
0.3 (+0.1)
2.9(-1.4)
3.1
(-0.6) 3.9(-0.9)
0.3(-0.8)
China
1.3(-0.3)
1.4 (+0.7)OECDPacific
0.7(+0.3)
NorthAmeri ca
2.9
1.6 (0.3)
1.2 (+0.4)-0.3
1.5
1.7 (+0.8)
6.2
(+0.8)
Other Asia
(-1)
0.5(+0.4)
OECD/IEA2013
0.5Red number in brackets deno tes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)
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N. American imports plunge
OriginofNorthAmericanCrudeImportsin2012and2018
1.1
0.3
2012
0.3
0.2
2018
millionbarrelsperday
2.7
1.5
1.7
1.2
Mid dle East L at in America Af rica Others Mid dle East L at in America Af rica Others
OECD/IEA2013