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1400 hrs 14 June 2010

Slide I

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The Role of Governments and Public Service

Notes for Discussion

I The Purpose of this Presentation is to review progress in the Achievement of MDGs

and draw lessons on the role and the need to strengthen governments and public

administration.

II It draws on the experience as largely chronicled by the UN, with particular focus on

Asia and on the discussions in CEPA meetings on ways forward.

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III Why the MDGs are important:

• Conventionally, economic progress was measured by the growth of Gross

Domestic Product (GDP). Bu this was an economist’s conception that

measured, broadly speaking, what enters into the market economy or that

that can be potentially traded.

• But the GDP measure is not a full index of economic and social progress:

• The GDP measure cannot always reflect economic and social progress.

• The adoption of MDGs in 2000 is a major landmark – in that it shifted

attention to a broader measure of human well-being.

• The MDGs represent a major contribution of the UN – Amartya Sen,

Mahbub ul Haq, Richard Jolly, among others contributing to it.

• It is important, therefore, that we measure our social institutions and

policies by progress in achieving MDGs.

Slide 3

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IV. Where are we, then, in the progress in the achievement of the MDGs? At a

global level:

• The broad conclusion is: “Nations are moving towards achieving them,

but too slowly”.

• According to the UN Secretary General, the achievements are:

o There is reduction in the proportion of people living below the poverty

line, but the absolute number is still staggering.

o Fewer people are dying today of AIDS.

o Many countries are implementing strategies to combat malaria and

measles – two major killers of children.

o The world is edging closer to universal primary education.

o The world is on the way to meet the target for safe drinking water.

But:

o Higher food prices in the pre-crisis period impacted on poverty

reduction. The recent decline in food prices did not translate into

corresponding reduction in hunger because incomes fell by more

than prices.

o It was projected that that an estimated 55mn to 90mn more people

would have been living in extreme poverty in 2009, than

anticipated before the recent global economic crisis.

o The meagre progress in child nutrition from 1990 to 2007 makes it

difficult to meet the MDG target. The recent economic turmoil and

higher food prices will make it unlikely that this target will be

achieved.

o The economic crisis can also hold back progress towards gender

equality, with employment of women coming under threat.

o the Crisis had pushed many into vulnerable employment

o though employed, many do not earn enough for themselves and

their families to rise above the poverty line of $1.25 a day.

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V What is the experience of Asia?

• The region as a whole is an early achiever for:

(a) Reduction in gender disparities in primary and tertiary

education

(b) Stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis

(c) Ensuring a proportion of protected area to maintain bio-

diversity

(d) Reducing consumption of ozone depleting substances

(e) Halving the proportion of people without access to safe-

drinking water

• The region is on track to achieve three other important targets:

(a) Gender parity in secondary education

(b) Ensuring universal access of children to primary school

(c) Halving the proportion of people living below the $1.25-a-

day poverty line.

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VI But the Regional Aggregates mask considerable variations between sub-

regions and country groupings. Among the sub-regions:

- The greatest advances have been in South–East Asia, with North and

Central Asian countries, and South Asia also making progress but

lagging behind South East Asia.

- The triple transition- from command to market economy, from

totalitarianism to democracy, from being part of Soviet Union to

being sovereign states – posed many challenges to North-Central

Asian countries.

- As a group, the Pacific Island countries have been less successful.

- The region’s 14 Least Developed countries have made slow or made

no progress on most of the indicators, performing well only on

gender equality in primary and secondary education and in reducing

the prevalence of HIV and TB.

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Source: Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in an Era of Global Uncertainty, Asia Pacific Regional report 2009-10, UN-ESCAP/ADB/UNDP, Bangkok, Feb 2010

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- The inter-country variations are illustrated in the variations in infant

mortality rate (IMR) across countries in Asia. For example, in 2007,

the IMR for the following countries was:

o 73 in Pakistan

o 54 in India

o 19 in China

o 4 in Republic of Korea

- And country averages mask important disparities within countries:

o Intra-country disparities are a cause for concern in

Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines,

among others. There are significant rural-urban, and inter-

regional disparities in performance within each country. For

example, infant mortality in Orissa in Eastern India is ….times

that in Kerala.

o Inter-regional inequalities in consumption within a country

have increased in most countries. There is a high level of

geographical concentration of poverty.

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VI I What are the Factors inhibiting the achievement of the MDGs in Asia?

o The recent Global Economic Crisis since 2008 onwards is setting back the

progress made in the achievement of the MDGs:

o The recent global economic crisis could trap an additional 17

million people in Asia on incomes of less than $1.25 a day, and

another 4 million in 2010.

o Among the Asia-Pacific countries, the Pacific countries, which are

highly dependent on trade, are the most exposed, and generally

have lower coping society.

o The loss of income by women and its adverse impact on health and

education.

o The vulnerability of girl-child to being withdrawn from schools.

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o The fall in household incomes could further increase the number of

infant and child deaths, with disproportionate effect on women and

children.

o Apart from the direct impact of the economic crisis, the crisis can affect

the achievement of MDGs through:

• Reduced budget allocations for MDG related goals at national and

international levels – e.g. maternal health, environment.

• Fewer trade opportunities for the majority of developing countries.

• Possible reductions in aid flows.

Side 7

VIII Following the economic crisis, many countries adopted fiscal stimulus

packages. Did they help with MDG targets?

• In a large part of Asia-Pacific, the greatest contribution of the fiscal

stimulus has been for poverty reduction, followed by health and

education.

• But the contribution of the stimulus packages to MDGs could have

been greater through better emphasis on social protection.

Expenditure on social protection in most Asia-Pacific countries tends

to be small relative to GDP.

Slide 8

IX What should be done? The experience of Asia and other regions suggests

that:

• Growth is important, though not sufficient in itself, to achieve reduction in

poverty levels.

• Empirical evidence suggests that a one percent point growth in GDP can

lead to more than one per cent point reduction in the incidence of poverty.

But:

o The relationship between growth and poverty reduction, however,

is stronger if growth is inclusive - e.g. strategies that are

employment generating, pro-women, less geographically

concentrated, pro-rural, pro-health-promoting and environment-

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friendly (e.g less demanding of water and clearance of forests, non-

polluting, non-destructive of bio-diversity, etc).

o Progress in child and infant mortality is not strictly correlated to

progress in the reduction in income poverty.

• There are significant gender disparities in malnutrition and infant and

child mortality. Special efforts are needed to reduce child and infant

mortality, taking into account the gender disparities.

• Expenditure on health should not be seen as a matter to be left to private

choice.

o Control of infectious diseases such as malaria, TB, leprosy, etc

requires collective action, and reduction in their incidence should

be treated as expenditure on public goods. So is the spread of

literacy, as it carries externalities. Such actions also benefit the

poor more proportionately – and hence equity promoting.

o Insurance at subsidized rates for the poor can have a beneficial

effect (e.g. Arogya Sree - i.e. Public funded Insurance for Better

Health for the poor- in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India)

o Improved expenditure on health, education and sanitation with

focus on women and girl child has a positive impact on overall

growth rate through reduced infant mortality and the related

decline in fertility rates, release of women for income generating

employment and enhanced productivity. Expenditure on education

and health should be seen as investments for a better future.

• Fostering connectivity (roads, rail networks, telecommunications) help to

reduce poverty.

o Improved access to health and educational services

o New opportunities for income generation

• Improved market access.

• To reduce hunger, it is important to:

o provide guarantees for minimum number of days of employment in

a year for men and women as a statutory right of citizens (e.g the

National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of India that provides

for 100 days of employment on demand for every rural citizen).

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o make arrangements for special access to food for the poor,

including the deprived mothers, the aged, the disabled and the

small children. (e.g supply of essential items of food at subsidized

prices, e.g. India).

• New modes of delivery of services should be considered where scope

exists for more effective delivery including through PPPs (e.g. Cambodia,

where NGOs are contracted to help deliver health services)

• Empowerment of the local communities is a critical pre-requisite for the

achievement of the MDGs:

o Decentralisation

o Community management of public services

o Better local governance

• Increase investment in MDG related goals together with institutional

changes.

• Innovative service delivery mechanisms in relation to non-income poverty

related indicators like health (e.g. malaria, HIV/AIDS, TB) and

environment, as economic growth alone would not ensure progress in

those areas.

Slide 9

X What are the five conclusions/action points that one can draw from the

experience of Asia vis a vis MDG goals?

o Make economic growth ‘inclusive’ in character to achieve maximum

impact on MDGs.

o Achievement of MDGs is not in conflict with the growth objective: it

can in fact reinforce the growth process (e.g. decline in infant mortality

leading to reduced fertility, lower population growth, higher per capita

income and savings).

o By promoting equitable growth, achievement of MDGs help to reduce

conflict and promote peace.

o The achievement of MDGs cannot be left to the play of market forces.

The Washington Consensus on economic policy needs to be replaced by

a new consensus that aims to reposition governments and public

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administration to play a stronger role in economic and social

transformation.

• International policies will need to be tuned to: (a) removal of restrictions

on the export of agricultural and other goods and services from the

developing countries; (b) address issues of conflict that have cross-border

roots; (c)put in place stronger systems to deal with financial crises,

hunger, access to medicines at affordable costs, promote the transfer of

innovations and good practices that strengthen public administration and

reposition governments; and (d) address the vulnerability of small and

island states.

S.K. Rao

Administrative Staff College of India

Hyderabad, India

14 June 2010