slide created by the natural edge project for presentation to the griffith business school...

Slide created by The Natural Edge Project for presentation to the Griffith Business School Sustainability Series, 06 November 2008

Charlie HargrovesExecutive Director,The Natural Edge ProjectResearch Fellow, Griffith University

“The cost of inaction: reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”


The 1971 Keeling Curve: Atmospheric CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory

Source: Study of Man's Impact on Climate (SMIC), Stockholm, edited by Carroll L. Wilson and William H. Matthews


1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from

the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429-436.


Average Global Temperature Record (IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis - Summary for Policy Makers).


1999 Plot of CO2 Concentrations and Temperature from 400,000 years ago to 1950Source: Petit, J, et al (1999) Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from

the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature 399, pp 429-436.


Global Warming Predictions from an average of 3 degree global averageSource: Modelled using the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3)


Stabilisation levels and probability ranges for temperature increasesSource: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 13.4)


Projected Australian temperature change 2000-2100Source: CSIRO (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php)


Projected Australian rainfall change 2000-2100Source: CSIRO (http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/resources.php)


Climate change impacts on AustraliaSource: Summary from Preston, B.L. and Jones R.N. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Australia

and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions, CSIRO.


What about the financial costs?


Gross Domestic Product vs. Estimated Environmental Costs (billions) for the United States of America from 1950-2004.Source: Data sourced from Talberth, J et al (2006)


Estimates of the costs of global warming in the United States Source: Stockholm Environment Institute (2008) The Cost of Climate Change What We’ll Pay if

Global Warming Continues Unchecked, Tuffs University.


“The costs of action to the global economy would be roughly 1 percent of GDP, while the costs of inaction

could be from 5-20 percent of GDP… The investment that

takes place in the next 10-20 years will have a profound effect on the climate in the

second half of this century and the next.”

The Stern Review, 2006


Types of costs associated with climate changeSource: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.


Early Action on Climate Change Costs Less Than Delayed Action Source: Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006)


Conceptual and stylised representation of risks and benefits of transition strategiesSource: TNEP (2008)


How can we reduce costs?


Conceptual and stylised representation of a decoupling graphSource: TNEP (2008)


Decoupling Progress in the Netherlands 1990 – 2005Source: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2007)


Conceptual and stylised representation of waves of innovationSource: TNEP (2005)


McKinsey Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 1991Source: Cited in MacNeill, J. (1991) Beyond Interdependence, Oxford University Press, New York.


McKinsey Australian Carbon Abatement Cost Curve, 2007Source: McKinsey Consulting (2007) An Australian Cost Curve for Greenhouse Gas Reduction,

McKinsey Consulting.


Queensland Energy Consumption comparisonsSource: ABARE Data (2003)


Marginal and total costs of inactionSource: OECD (2008) Costs of Inaction on Key Environmental Challenges, OECD.


BAU emissions and stabilisation trajectories for 450 - 550ppm CO2eSource: Stern, N et al. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. (Figure 8.3)


Illustrative Emissions Paths to StabilisationSource: Stern Review (2006), generated with the SiMCaP EQW model and averaged over multiple

scenarios (Meinshausen et al. 2006)


Illustrative emissions paths to stabilise at 550ppm CO2e.

Source: Stern, N. (2006)


Contraction and convergence for different countries with ‘head room’ for the rapidly developing economies: a stylised, illustrative scenario

Source: Garnaut Interim Report (2008)


Credit: Jocke Berglund, Fotoflyget, Skandinavien


What is TNEP doing?


“We have learned a lot of lessons since Natural Capitalism came out in

1999, that I think will make the next

explications of this subject even more

powerful and effective, so working with our

Natural Project Edge collaborators I think

shows great promise, these are very diligent

and well informed people that I think are

doing valuable work and we are looking

forward to cooperating with them in ways that will help us all to learn

faster and get more done better.” Amory Lovins

“The authors of this book [have] the energy, insight and commitment to begin the discussion of what I call ‘the ultimate integration’; that is, integration of the concepts of competitiveness and Natural Capitalism.” Michael Fairbanks

“Within these pages you will see that there is reason for robust hope, and as you read, we hope you will be inspired to contribute to this magnificent re-evolution of human enterprise” William McDonough


"I was thrilled and impressed reading this manual that features the integrated approach towards resource productivity and, ultimately, sustainability both at small and large scale.” Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker

“The authors, in producing this

introductory, technical, teaching material and

these important examples, have

provided a publication which can, and must, be

widely used in our university and technical

training institutions.”Barry J. Grear AO


"This Sustainable Energy Solutions

Portfolio by The Natural Edge Project will help

ensure all engineers and built environment professionals can

rapidly update their skills and knowledge on

renewable energy and energy efficiency

practice.”Dr Mike Dennis

ANU Engineering Department

"The work of the Natural Edge project makes me feel optimistic. This team of four young engineers with an extraordinary set of global networks has produced a three-part bible on how to reduce your emissions. It's enormous, but don't be put off by the size. It's designed so that you only need to read the chapters that relate to your business."Alexandra De Blas, ABC Science Show


"I commend the team from The Natural Edge

Project and their partners for

undertaking to develop a response to 'Our

Common Future' to mark its 20th anniversary."

Gro Harlem Brundtland

“The Natural Edge Project is to be commended for tackling this vitally important issue and highlighting where in the world already communities, regions and nations are creating solutions to this great challenge of our time.” R.K. Pachauri


Shanghai Century

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slide created by the natural edge project for presentation to the griffith business school...

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