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Learning from the tsunami

Rohan Samarajiva

www.lirneasia.net

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Agenda

Three ways of responding to hazards

1. Pretend the danger will not happen

2. Retreat from areas of possible danger

3. Understand the risks, make the necessarypreparations, get on with life

What is the choice for a dynamic growth-oriented country? For a dynamic growth-

oriented firm? Role of government?

Role of private sector?

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Pretend the danger does not exist

Sri Lanka has hadplenty of disasters Mostly floods and

cyclones Even tsunamis

But we havepassed up

opportunities foreffectivepreparedness

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Examples: From NDMC 1999Country Report ( excl. 2000 & 03)

550008Cyclone2000

25000+200+Floods2003

62615Landslides1997

836010Cyclone1996

45610Cyclone1994

87029Landslides1993

250000915Cyclone1978

Affected familiesDeathsDisasterYear

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Consequences are serious

Because no national public warning systemexisted, gap between first contact(Kalmunai 0827/0836 SLT) and other

locations further North, South and on WestCoast not used to save lives Estimate: 7,000 could have been saved

Because no dedicated disaster warning

center, no effort made to seek informationin aftermath of Sumatra-Andamans quake Estimate: 23,000 could have been saved

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Retreat from danger

If we leave Beaches for fear of

tsunamis . . .

Mountains for fearof landslides . . .

Valleys for fear offloods . . .

. . . .

Where will we live?

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Retreat

Is there any basis in law andeconomics?

DoesDoes this approach address economiccosts and tradeoffs?

What does it do to our psyche? Is it compatible with an

entrepreneurial society? Can any firm adopt it, and yet remain

dynamic?

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Embrace risk, intelligently

Understand thehazards

Identify the

economic costs andbenefits

Work on disasterpreparedness

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The middle path

Do not take unnecessary risks But do not also run away from risk

Choice based on best possibleinformation and calculation of trade-offs

Be prepared, but be adventurous

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Understand the hazards

Best possible information on nature ofrelevant hazards

Vulnerability mapping Physical and historical data

Probabilistic

Identify the economic costs andbenefits Social and economic data

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Disaster preparedness

Timely, accurate,credible warnings Consultative

process in Jan-Feb2005

Draft document atwww.lirneasia.net

Revised text will bepublished & handedto authoritiesaround Feb 26th

http://www.lirneasia.net/http://www.lirneasia.net/

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Disaster preparedness Appropriate action is

what will save lives Response plans, drills,

audits Relocation,

modifications, asrequired Disaster awareness

through education at alllevels NIE said to be

promoting in schools Vanguard Foundation

will focus on media andemergency responsepersonnel

Vanguard Centre forDisaster Preparedness

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What companies can do . . .Choose your approach

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No help needed for 2; if the other ..

Lets work together to Devise industry-level responses

Integrate disaster preparedness into thevery fabric of how firms operate Planning

Training

Audits Certification

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Useful SL websites

www.lirneasia.net for early warningdiscussion document, lively discussion Emphasis on ICTs

www.vanguardfoundationlanka.orgfor disaster preparedness work withmarket emphasis

www.indi.ca on seven historicaltsunamis

http://www.lirneasia.net/http://www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org/http://www.indi.ca/http://www.indi.ca/http://www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org/http://www.lirneasia.net/