skourtos adaptation in greece ccisc

Prioritising adaptation in Greece

Research and first outcomes from the Climate Change

Impacts Study Committee – Bank of Greece

Michalis Skourtos Agricultural University of Athens and CCISC – Bank of Greece

OECD Expert Workshop on Adaptation Financing and Implementation 18-19 June 2014

Paris, France

K. Drakatos, Chairman C. Zerefos, Coordinator

Climate Unit

C. Zerefos C. Repapis

A. Asimakopoulos X. Gianakopoulos

G. Tselioudis P. Xatzinikolaou και συνεργάτες

Environment Unit

E. Baltatzis A. Nastis

A. Karamanos

D. Papanikolaou S. Papoutsoglou

M. Seferlis G. Stournaras

Economy

G. Donatos A. Papandreou

H. Coccosis

A. Xepapadeas E. Sartzetakis

A. Kontogianni Μ. Σκούρτος

και συνεργάτες

Energy

P. Kapros G. Gianopoulos

Society

J. Yfantopoulos

P. Thomopoulos J. Sampethai

Scientific Secretary

D. Antonakaki V. Roussou

Overall Coordination

Representatives of the Bank of Greece

The profile of CCISC

2009: Founded by the Director of BoG as an independent think-tank 2011: Completion of the first Study on the environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece (http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/klima/default.aspx)

2012: Initiation of research on: A National Strategy of Climate Change Adaptation 2013: First sectoral study on Adaptation in the Greek Tourist Sector

http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/klima/default.aspx

Basic assumptions of CCISC report Climatic parameters:

Temperature (ºC) Precipitation (mm) Relative Humidity (%) Downward SW Surface Radiation (W/m2) Wind Speed (m/sec) Cloud Fractional Cover (%) Study for 3 different SRES Emission Scenarios: B2, A1B and A2 Time Periods: 1961-1990, 2021-2050, 2071-2100 1) Future Projections under SRES A1B are based on 12 RCMs (Regional

Climate Models) simulations (EU ENSEMBLES Project) (RCMs spatial resolution: 25 km x 25 km)

2) Future Projections under SRES B2 and SRES A2 are based on 8 and 13 respectively RCMs simulations (EU PRUDENCE Project) (Data available only for periods 1961-1990 and 2071-2100)

Greek territory divided in 13 climatic zones Discount rates 1% and 3% Cost estimated in €2008 and as % of GDP

Mean Air Temperature • 2021-2050, SRES A1B : Over Greece

Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 oC.

• 2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual air Temperature increase by

2.8 oC (SRES B2) up to 3.9 oC (SRES A2) • Temperature increase is more significant

during summer and autumn than during winter and spring.

• Temperature increase is more prominent over land.

•

SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

Mean Air Temperature Change between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

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11,5

22,5

33,5

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North Aegean

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SRES B2

SRES A1B

SRES A2

SRES A1B: Mean Air Temperature Change between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990

SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2021-2050 and 1961-1990

SRES A1B: Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

Precipitation • 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Over Greece Mean annual

Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5%.

• 2071-2100: Over Greece Mean annual

Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% (SRES B2)

and by 18% (SRES A1B, SRES A2)

-30

-25

-20

-15

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West-Cen

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SRESB2

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Mean Annual Precipitation Percentage Change Between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

Conclusions I

• 2021-2050, SRES A1B : Mean annual air Temperature increase by 1.4 oC.

• 2071-2100: Mean annual air Temperature increase for 2.8 oC (SRES B2) up to 3.9 oC (SRES A2)

• 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 6.5%.

• 2071-2100: Mean annual Precipitation is predicted to decrease by 5% under SRES B2 and by 18% under SRES A1B and SRES A2

• 2021-2050, SRES A1B: Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease by 2%.

• 2071-2100: Mean annual Relative Humidity is predicted to decrease for 2.5% up to 4% under SRES B2 and for 6% up to 10% under SRES A2

Overview of damage estimates

Sector Scenarios Impacts Focus on Method

applied

Damage estimates Remarks

(NPV bil) (%GDP)

Water Α1Β, Α2, Β2 Loss of water reserves

Drinking services (housing, industrial and tourist uses)

Market prices

3,3 – 7,3 (i=0) 1,9 – 3,9 (i=1) 0,8 – 1,3 (i=3)

1,4% – 3,16% (i=0) 0,83% - 1,69% (i=1) 0,34% - 0,58% (i=3)

Short discussion on adaptation with indicative cost estimates

SLR SLR of 0,5 και 1 m.

Long term loss of coastal land and short term damages from storm surges

Five land uses: Urban, agricultural, tourist, forests and wetlands

Market prices / Value transfer

0,3 – 0,6 (i=0) 0,1 – 0,3 (i=1) 0,02 – 0,04 (i=3)

......................... CBA of adaptation in 4 coastal areas. B/C ratio: 978 - 2 (i=1%) και 224 - 0,6 (i=3%)

Fisheries /aquaculture

Rise of sea surface temperature by 3,3 ºC in 2100

Loss of fish stocks / loss of biodiversity

Loss of fishermen income / social cost from the loss of biodiversity

Market prices / value transfer

0,01 (i=0) 0,006 – 0,005 (i=1) 0,001 – 0,0008 (i=3)

..................

Overview (cont) Agriculture

Α1Β, Α2, Β2

Loss of yield per hectare for wheat, cotton, corn, olives and vineyards with or without desertification

Loss of income Market prices AIB: benefits 3,28% (without desertification) / damages 16,91% (with desertification) A2: benefits 2,92% (without desertification) / damages 17,81% (with desertification) Β2: benefit 13,37% (without desertification) / damages 10,05% (with desertification)

Discussion on adaptation with indicative cost estimates

Forest ecosystems

Α2, Β2 Reallocation of forests, fires, biomass, water retention

Loss of income form timber / loss of non-timber services

Market prices 4,2 – 9,4 (i=1%) 1,3 – 3 (i=3%)


Overview (cont)

Biodiversity Α1Β, Α2, Β2 Ecosystem services

TEV Value transfer

352 – 4,4 (i=1) 130,8 – 1,7 (i=3)

…………………. Discussion on adaptation with indicative cost estimates

Tourism Α2, Β2 Arrivals, overnights and expenditure

Very low expected impacts / marginally negative for the total of Greek teritory


Urban environment Α1Β, Α2, Β2 Higher indoor temperatures

Quality of life Additional cost of cooling

20-21 (i=0) Discussion on adaptation with indicative cost estimates

Transport Α1Β, Α2, Β2 Vulnerability of transport infrastructure

Loss of transport services

Replacement cost of networks and cost of delays

0,11 – 0,6 annually


Health Α1Β, Α2, Β2 Rising mortality rates

Statistical value of life

Value ttransfer

0,135 – 0,085 annually


Overview (cont)

Mining and extractive industry

Α1Β Destruction of infrastructures, loss of water reserves, rising particulate matter

Restoration of infrastructure

Market prices / value transfer

1,5% – 1,4%


A macroeconomic estimate of adaptation cost

Comparison of costs of inaction, mitigation and adaptation

Focus on: water, forests, transport, tourism, urban environment and coastal zone

Assumed effectiveness of (hard) adaptation measures 30%-70%

Implementation of investments in 2020-2050 and 2050-2070

Cost of adaptation: 1,5% for 2025-2050 and 0,9% for 2051-2070 (in GDP 2008)

The benefits of coastal adaptation: A case study • Groins in Lampi beach, Kos island • Beach nourishment in Kardamaina beach, Kos island • Revetments and geotextiles in Afantou beach, Rhodes island. • Bulkheads in Tigaki beach, Kos Island

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Κόστος κατασκευής Αποφευχθείσα ζημία Κοινωνικό όφελος

Cost and benefit of coastal adaptation measures (discount rate 3%).

Kontogianni A, C. Tourkolias, D. Damigos, M. Skourtos (2014). Assessing sea level rise costs and adaptation benefits under uncertainty in Greece. Environmental science & policy 3: 61–78

Lessons learned

The severe expected financial cost of inaction was

confirmed The potential for both mitigation and adaptation is high

• But, in times of financial austerity…..

No stand-alone mitigation or adaptation policies are in demand. Mainstreaming climate policies and showcasing ancillary benefits

seems a powerful financial strategy Capacity building in the state agencies / local municipalities is

imperative in order to promote a ‘green civil servant’ mentality in administration

…policy uses

How has then CCISC report been used to inform policy development?

•Several prioritization approaches have been applied (i.e. CEA, CBA, ROV) •Experts disagree on the best approach; depending on specific policy issues and data availability •State administration not wiling to use CBA •CEA has gained some prominence after WFD and MSFD •Deliberation with and networking of stakeholders is crucial! CCISC’s research has also motivated interest for climate adaptation issues in the Union of Greek Industrialists and is currently backing-up campaigns

by environmental NGOs

…and a look ahead

How best could subsequent studies support the implementation of adaptation at the national level?

By creating a solid knowledgebase for adaptation By showcasing pros and cons of alterative prioritisation approaches By organizing and fostering deliberation By designing robust socio-economic scenarios for the Greek economy By networking with international partners, especially in the Mediterranean basin

NOTA BENE

The rapid recovery of the Greek economy is a basic parameter in all implemented

policies. This entails that prioritizing adaptation at the national level is currently possible only as a strategy of ancillary benefits from large scale growth/employment

investments. Mainstreaming par excellence!

Thank you for your attention!