Skills & Sectoral Change

2

SKILLS AS A DRIVER OF PRODUCTIVITY

What do skills in the region look like?

3

QUALIFICATION LEVELS – Level 4+

Working age population with at least level 4+, South West 2004

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

BA

NE

S

Bou

rnem

outh

Bris

tol

Cor

nwal

l

Dev

on

Dor

set

Glo

uc

Nor

th S

om

Ply

mou

th

Poo

le

Som

erse

t

Sou

th G

louc

Sw

indo

n

Tor

bay

Wilt

shire

Per

cent

age

at least level 4+ South West England

Source: DfES, analysis of APS data, 2006

4

SKILLS FOR LIFE & NEETS

Despite will qualified workforce there areskills for life issues in the region

Skills for Life Survey shows:

• 14% in South West classified with literacy skills at Entry Level 3 & below

• 49% in South West with numeracy skills at Entry Level 3

& below • Estimated at 15% of young people aged 17 are not in

education, training or employment

5

SECTORS

What do sectors in the region look like?

• The industrial profile similar to national: primarily concentrated within service-related industries

• 1/5 of employment within the wholesale and retail trade • Just over 13% in real estate and business-related

activities • Public sector employment accounts for 27%

• Manufacturing accounts for 13%

6

SECTORS

How does this compare to the nationalpicture?

• Agriculture, the wholesale/retail trade, hotels & restaurants, and public administration, education, health & social work, are marginally more important to the region

• Transport & communications, financial intermediation, and the real estate, renting & business activities sector slightly less than the national average

7

OCCUPATIONS

What does the occupational structure looklike?

• Occupational profile of the employment of the region is broadly similar to England as a whole

• Marginally more people employed in skilled trades

• Fewer plant & machine operatives

• Marginally more employed in elementary occupations and personal services

8

FORECAST DEMAND

How is demand forecast to change?

• Continue declining in primary, secondary and manufacturing industries

• Continue increasing across mainly service-related industries

 • Banking & finance and transport & communications

show only marginal projected increases. Already have below average employment levels in the region

9

FORECAST DEMAND

• Nationally, increases for managers & senior officials, professional & associate professionals, personal service, and sales & customer service occupations.

• South West, increases in managers smaller, only a 0.9% increase in employment share compared with 1.3% nationally.

• Increase in associate professionals is also smaller with 1.2% in the region compared with 2% nationally.

10

FORECAST DEMAND

• Decreases in elementary, administration & secretarial, skilled trade occupations, and process, plant & machine operatives

• The decreases for skilled trades less in the South West (-1.6%) than nationally (-2.3%)

• Smaller decreases for process, plant and machine operatives and elementary occupations

11

ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS

Share of employment in elementary occupations ishigher in 2 of the 3 main industries ofemployment in the South West:

1. distribution, hotels and restaurant 2. banking and finance

12

ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS

Employment within the banking sector, 2002

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0M

anag

ers

&se

nior

offic

ials

Pro

fess

iona

l

Ass

ocia

tepr

of &

tech

Adm

in &

secr

etar

ial

Ski

lled

Tra

des

Sal

es &

cust

omer

serv

ice

Ele

men

tary

% o

f em

ploy

men

t

England South West

Source: Demand & Supply report

13

ELEMENTARY OCCUPATIONS

Employment within the hotels & restaurants sector, 2002

Source: Demand & Supply report

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Man

ager

s &

seni

orof

fcia

ls

Pro

fess

iona

l

Ass

ocia

tepr

of &

tech

Adm

in &

secr

etar

ial

Ski

lled

Tra

des

Sal

es &

cust

Pro

cess

&m

achi

neop

s

Ele

men

tary

% in

em

ploy

men

t

England South West

14

REPLACEMENT DEMAND

What is replacement demand?

Put simply - …there are not enough people entering theemployment market to replace those who are leavingthrough retirement...

• It is reported nationally that for all occupations, replacement demand is about 10 times larger than the net changes in employment that are projected for 2002 to 2012.

• By 2012, there are expected to be 13.5 million job openings principally as a result of retirements.

15

SKILLS & SECTORS

So, what does this all mean?

• Under developed demand from employers

• Reliance on low productivity sectors

• Replacement demand significant issue for many industries – more so in region than nationally