skills for the future europe's skill challenge christian lettmayr acting director, cedefop
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Skills for the future
Europe's skill challengeEurope's skill challenge
Christian LettmayrChristian Lettmayr
Acting director, Cedefop
Skills for the future
Impact of the recession on employment in Impact of the recession on employment in EU-27+EU-27+
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Million jobs
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
crisis
5,5 million job losses
8 million new jobs
forecast
Skills for the future
Europe’s skill challengeEurope’s skill challengeLess mismatch?
The importance of key competences?
The “right” skills?
Skills for innovation ….entrepreneurial skills?
Communicating long term labour market demand??
Skills for the future
Key resultsKey results
Up to 2020 the forecast points to:
– more than 83 million job opportunities due to:• a modest net increase in employment of around 8 million new jobs (expansion
demand); and • around 75 million jobs to be filled as people retire or leave the workforce
(replacement demand)
– job opportunities in all types of occupations, but most at the higher and lower end of the job spectrum risk of job polarisation
– most job opportunities will be in services
– the trend towards more skill-intensive jobs at all levels will continue and many traditional manual or routine jobs will decline
– a more highly-qualified workforce, with more than 80% of people having at least medium-level qualifications
– skill demand will lag behind skill supply
Skills for the future
Growth and uncertainty: sectorsGrowth and uncertainty: sectors
Uncertainty High Low
Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing nes Mechanical Engineering Water Supply Motor Vehicles Retailing Construction Water Transport Distribution Communications Hotels & Catering Banking & Finance Land Transport etc Computing Services Air Transport Professional Services Insurance Other Business Services Education Miscellaneous Services
Hig
h
Health & Social Work Oil & Gas etc Agriculture etc Food, Drink & Tobacco Coal Wood & Paper Other Mining Printing & Publishing Textiles, Clothing & Leather Chemicals nes Manufactured Fuels Rubber & Plastics Metal Goods Non-Metallic Mineral Product Electronics Basic Metals Other Transport Equipment Electrical Eng. & Instruments Gas Supply
Gro
wth
ra
te 2
01
0-2
02
0
Lo
w
Electricity
Public Administration & Defence Source: Cedefop forecast 2012
Skills for the future
Developments in occupationsDevelopments in occupations-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Legislators, senior offi cials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Clerks
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Elementary occupations
Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand
83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
million jobs
Skills for the future
Demand for qualificationsDemand for qualifications
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
million jobs
Skills for the future
Service workers and shop and market sales workers
0 5 10 15 20 25
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
Low
qual
ifica
tion
Med
ium
qual
ifica
tion
High
qual
ifica
tion
Million jobs
Employment by qualificationsEmployment by qualifications
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
Labour force by qualificationLabour force by qualification
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020
Mill
ions
Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification
37 %
47 %
22 %
47 %
31 % 24 % 16 %
47 %
29 %
Source: Cedefop country workbooks (2012)
Skills for the future
10
Typical pathways for young peopleTypical pathways for young people in Europe in Europe
General upper-secondary graduates tend to continue studying
VET upper-secondary graduates tend to go straight to the labour market
Pathways for 18-24 year olds with medium level education in EU27 in 2009 (ISCED 3 and 4)
Skills for the future
11
Employment premium to VET in most EU countriesEmployment premium to VET in most EU countries in 2009 in 2009
Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes current students.
Difference in employment rates for 25-34 year oldswith VET and general medium level education (% points)
Skills for the future
Source: Cedefop (2008)
National InitiativesNational Initiatives
Skills for the future
Skills for the future
Europe’s skill challengeEurope’s skill challengeLess mismatch?
The importance of key competences?
The “right” skills?
Skills for innovation ….entrepreneurial skills?
Communicating long term labour market demand??
Skills for the future
New data and results ONLINE New data and results ONLINE
Look for
at cedefop.europa.eu
Skills for the future
Thank you for your attention
More information:www.cedefop.europa.eu
Access the forecast data and results online at www.cedefop.europa.eu!