skilled for life - presentation by andreas schleicher at the piaac international conference held in...

00 2nd PIAAC Conference

Skilled for Life?

Andreas Schleicher22 November 2015

Increased likelihood of positive outcomes among adults with higher literacy skills

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

BeingEmployed

High wages Good toexcellent

health

Participationin volunteer

activities

High levels ofpoliticalefficacy

High levels oftrust

1

(scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below)

Odds ratio

The kind of things that are easy to teach are

now easy to automate, digitize or outsource

Changes in the demand for skillsTrends in different tasks in occupations (United States)

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interpersonal

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution

Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.

Robotics

>1m km,

one minor accident,

occasional human intervention

Augmented Reality

Bifurcated productivity growth.

7

Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100)Manufacturing Services

Source: OECD, The Future of Productivity, forthcoming

A lot more to come

• 3D printing

• Synthetic biology

• Brain enhancements

• Nanomaterials

• Etc.

The Race between Technology and Education

Inspired by “The race between technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard)

Industrial revolution

Digital revolution

Social pain

Universal public schooling

Technology

Education

Prosperity

Social pain

Prosperity

Better skills, better jobs, better lives

Better jobs and better lives

How can economies best use

their skills

How, when and where do we learn

the right mix of skills

What knowledge and skills

drive better outcomes

10

Survey of Adult Skills in brief

1111

in literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments.

166 thousand adults…Representing 724 million 16-65 year-

olds in 24 countries/economies

… took an internationally agreed assessment…

Also surveyed were generic skills such as

collaborating with others and organising

one’s time, and how adults use their skills

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Poland

Ireland

Slovak Republic

Estonia

Korea

United States

Austria

Czech Republic

Average

Flanders (Belgium)

Japan

England/N. Ireland (UK)

Germany

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Norway

Netherlands

Finland

Sweden

Basic digital

problem-solvingskills

Advanced

digital problem-solving skills

Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds)

Digital problem solving skills of adults

%

12PIAAC/OECD

Average is overEvolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problem-solving skills

13

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

Medium-low problem-

solving skills

Low problem-solving skills

High level

problem-solving skills

SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS

The level and distribution of skills differs markedly across countriesMuch of the variation in skills proficiency is observed

within countries, so most countries have significant shares of struggling adults

14

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

Spain

Italy

United States

France

Ireland

Northern Ireland (UK)

Poland


England (UK)

Korea

Cyprus**

Canada

Australia

Average

Russian Federation³

Germany

Estonia

Austria

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

Denmark

Norway

Sweden

Netherlands

Flanders (Belgium)

Finland

Japan

25th

Mean and .95 confidence interval for

mean 75th 95th5th

Score

Skills of adults

Numeracy

7 points are roughly equal to one

year of education

**Footnote by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within

the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.Footnote by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

240 250 260 270 280 290 300

Italy

Spain

France

Ireland

Poland


Cyprus**

Austria

United States

Germany

Denmark


Korea

England (UK)

Average

Canada

Slovak Republic

Czech Republic


Flanders (Belgium)

Estonia

Norway

Sweden

Australia

Netherlands

Finland

Japan

25th


mean 75th 95th5th

Score

Skills of adultsLiteracy

7 points are roughly equal to one

year of education

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Italy

Spain

France

Ireland

Poland


Cyprus**

Austria

United States

Germany

Denmark


Korea

England (UK)

Average

Canada

Slovak Republic

Czech Republic


Flanders (Belgium)

Estonia

Norway

Sweden

Australia

Netherlands

Finland

Japan

25th


mean 75th 95th5th

Score

Skills of adultsLiteracy

Adult with low skills

Australia

Czech Republic

Finland

Germany

United States

Low numeracy Low literacy and numeracy Low literacy

England, 10 million people with low skills

Less mobility in more unequal countries

Australia

Austria

Flanders (Belgium) Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia Finland

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

JapanKorea

NetherlandsNorway

Poland

Slovak Republic

Spain

Sweden


United States

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

Par

en

tal e

du

cati

on

gra

die

nt

90-10 percentile difference

Correlation between skill inequality and parental education gradient

Correlation = 0.57

Numeracy skills level and inequality

Less inequality in more proficient countries

Australia

Austria

Flanders (Belgium)

Canada

Czech Republic DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Republic

Spain

Sweden


United States

OECD average

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150

Av

era

ge

Nu

me

racy

Pro

fici

en

cy

90-10 percentile difference

Correlation between level and dispersion of Numeracy proficiency

Correlation = -0.45


Successful integration is not simply a matter of time. In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are not strong or that policies that encourage learning the language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness

Leveraging the skillsof immigrants

23

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background

Score

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years

172


Score

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years Foreign-born - 5 years and more

172


Score

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born and native…

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background and language

Score

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

Native-born and native language

Foreign-born and foreign language

Literacy proficiencyby immigration background and language

Score

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Age at arrival <=6 Age at arrival >6

Differences in literacy proficiency between migrants and natives, by age at arrival

Score difference

Differences in employment rates between migrants and natives, by duration of stay

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Recent (less than 5 years)

Score difference

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Native-born

Foreign-born with foreign education

Foreign-born with host-country education

Percent increase in

wages

The returns to literacy proficiency, by place of birth and place of acquisition of highest qualification


Some countries have made significant progress in

improving skills proficiency

32

240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300Score

Literacy skills in younger and older generations

Avera

ge 1

6-2

4year-o

lds

KOREA

Germany

Norway

Avera

ge 5

5-6

5year-o

lds

Spain

Finland

Netherlands

US

UK

Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy

12.6 million

16-24 year-olds scoring at Level 4/5

Estonia, 0.2%

Flanders

(Belgium), 1%

Ireland, 0.2%

Ko

rea,

1%

7.9 million55-65 year-olds scoring at Level 4/5

Denmark, 0.5%

Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement


Formal education is the key to building foundation skills

… but more education does not automatically translate into better skills

35

Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by educational

attainment

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

Lower than upper

secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

Italy

Score

25th

percentileMean

75th

percentile

Lower than upper

secondary

Upper secondary

Tertiary

100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

Japan

Score

36

Qualifications don’t alwaysequal skills

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

Literacy skills and age

37

Age

Score

Literacy

unadjustedNumeracy

unadjusted

Numeracy

adjusted

Literacy

adjusted


Putting skills to effective useSkills will only translate into better economic and social outcomes if they are used effectively

38

Use of skills at work

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

Reading at

work

Writing at

work

Numeracy at

work

ICT at work Problem

solving at

work

Average

United

States

Japan

Most frequent use = 4

Least frequent use = 0

Index o

f use

Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

GermanyIreland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Republic

Spain Sweden

United States


3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3

(lo

g) L

abou

rprodu

cti

vit

y

Use of reading skills at work

40


Equal skills don’t always imply equal opportunities

41

Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-solving skills at work

42

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Republic

SpainSweden

United States

Flanders (Belgium)

England/N. Ireland (UK)Cyprus1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Perc

en

tag

e d

iffe

ren

ce b

etw

een

men

’s a

nd

w

om

en

’s w

ag

es (

men

min

us w

om

en

)

Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work (men minus women)

After accounting for occupations, industry and proficiency


Skills are everybody’s business

43

Lessons from strong performers

High quality initial education and lifelong learning• Investing in high quality

early childhood education and initial schooling, particularly for children from disadvantaged backgrounds

• Financial support targeted at disadvantage

• Opportunities and incentives to continued development of proficiency, both outside work and at the workplace.


Make learning everybody’s business• Governments, employers,

workers and parents need effective and equitable arrangements as to who does and pays for what, when and how

• Recognise that individuals with poor skills are unlikely to engage in education on their own and tend to receive less employer-sponsored training .


Effective links between learning and work• Emphasis on workbased

learning allows people to develop hard skills on modern equipment and soft skills through real-world experience

• Employer engagement in education and training with assistance to SMEs

• Strengthen relevance of learning, both for workplace and workers broader employability .


Allow workers to adapt learning to their lives• Flexibility in content

and delivery (part-time, flexible hours, convenient location)

• Distance learning and open education resources .


Improve transparency• Easy-to-find

information about adult education activities

• Combination of easily searchable, up-to-date online information and personal guidance and counselling services

• Less educated workers tend to be less aware of the opportunities

• Recognise and certify skills proficiency .


Guidance• Timely data about

demand for and supply of skills

• Competent personnel who have the latest labour-market information at their fingertips to steer learners

• Qualifications that are coherent and easy to interpret .


Help employers make better use of workers skills• Flexible work

arrangements that accommodate workers with care obligations and disabilities

• Encourage older workers to remain in the labour market

• Encourage employers to hire those who temporarily withdrew from the labour market .


Help economies move up the value chain• Governments can

influence both employer competitiveness strategies and product-market strategies, which determine in what markets the company competes

• Strengthen 21st century skills

• Foster entrepreneurship.

Find Out More at:

http://skills.oecd.org/skillsoutlook.htm

All national and international publications

The complete micro-level database

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

…and remember:

Email

[email protected]

@SchleicherEDU

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