sk hynix south korea add (no change) consensus … dram demand from hyper-scale customers...

Semiconductor│South Korea│July 6, 2017

Company Note

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH.

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SK Hynix Stronger for longer ■ We believe that stronger memory pricing in 2H17 is likely setting the stage for Hynix’s

earnings growth in FY18. ■ With continued supply discipline, we think robust demand for server DRAM (second

biggest DRAM application following mobile) should drive up DRAM pricing in 2H17F. ■ We raise FY17-19F EPS forecasts by 32-54% to reflect better memory price outlook. ■ We maintain our Add call with a higher target price based on 1.6x FY18F P/BV

(previously 1.4x), against 24% FY18-19F average ROE.

Improving visibility for sustained memory price strength There were earlier market concerns over weaker DRAM supply-demand balance from smartphone, but our survey of DRAM makers suggests even leaner DRAM inventory levels at DRAM makers and customers at end-2Q17 vs. end-1Q17. DRAMeXchange estimates the supply shortfall for server DRAM stands at 30-40% now and expects 3-5% qoq DRAM contract price increase in 3Q17F. We now forecast Hynix’s blended DRAM ASP to rise 8-9% hoh in 2H17F vs. our previous estimate of -6% hoh.

Server DRAM demand from hyper-scale customers accelerating Based on Bloomberg, the combined capex of FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) and Microsoft rose to US$30bn in 2016 from US$10.6bn in 2012 (a 29% CAGR). With big data analytics and SaaS (software as a service) becoming more important to hyper-scale memory customers, we expect server DRAM demand to accelerate to 40-50% p.a. in the next 2-3 years vs. last 4-year’s CAGR of 39% (2012-2016). Micron stated its revenue from cloud customers in 3QFY8/17 was more than 4x higher yoy.

Healthy DRAM market dynamics likely to persist in 2018 We forecast DRAM market to remain undersupplied by 1% in 2018F, vs. our estimate of 1.7% shortage in 2017F, with projected DRAM supply and demand growth at 17-18% range in 2018F, vs. 21-23% in 2017F. On the demand side, we believe continued strength in server demand and growing restocking appetite from smartphone and PC customers could be upside risks, whereas supply slowdown from possibly choppy tech migration to 1xnm could result in better pricing environment than our current estimates.

Pay heed to 10%+ free cash flow (FCF) yield With our new memory pricing assumptions, we raise our FY17/18/19F OP estimates by 30%/51%/51%, suggesting 6-10% upside to Bloomberg consensus. We forecast Hynix to generate FCF of W5.1tr/W6.8tr in FY17/18F, or 10%/14% of current market cap. While Hynix’s FCF yield was as high as 44% in 2004 and 21% in 2010 and we still find current yield (10%/14% in FY17/18F) attractive, given much more stable and healthy outlook for memory industry than in the past with industry consolidation and new demand drivers.

Stronger for longer memory cycle ahead; Add maintained Hynix’s share price rallied 53% YTD (vs. KOSPI up 18%), led by strong earnings outlook on continued memory price strength. Although further upward earnings revision momentum may become less pronounced after the significant consensus earnings upgrade for FY17, we believe improving visibility for FY18’s earnings growth profile should catalyse the stock. Risks to our Add call include Hynix’s execution of new memory processes (1xnm for DRAM and 72-layer 3D NAND).

SOURCE: COMPANY DATA, CIMB FORECASTS

South Korea

ADD (no change) Consensus ratings*: Buy 34 Hold 4 Sell 0

Current price: W68,000

Target price: W93,000

Previous target: W70,000

Up/downside: 36.8%

CIMB / Consensus: 19.0%

Reuters: 000660.KS

Bloomberg: 000660 KS

Market cap: US$43,032m

W49,504,160m

Average daily turnover: US$157.5m

W178,294m

Current shares o/s: 728.0m

Free float: 70.9% *Source: Bloomberg

Key changes in this note

FY17-19F OP increased by 30-51%

FY17-19F EPS increased by 32-54%

Source: Bloomberg

Price performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 21.2 35.2 113.5

Relative (%) 20.4 24.7 93.5

Major shareholders % held SKT 21.1

Analyst(s)

Dohoon LEE

T (82) 2 6730 6121 E [email protected]

Figure 6: 12-month forward P/E Figure 7: 12-month forward P/BV

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, QUANTIWISE SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, QUANTIWISE

Financial Summary Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Revenue (Wm) 18,797,990 17,197,990 28,754,231 30,686,013 31,164,670

Net Profit (Wm) 4,322,350 2,953,770 9,925,273 10,179,952 9,513,797

Normalised EPS (W) 5,978 4,057 13,634 13,983 13,068

Normalised EPS Growth 1% (32%) 236% 3% (7%)

FD Normalised P/E (x) 11.45 16.76 4.99 4.86 5.20

Price To Sales (x) 2.62 2.88 1.72 1.61 1.59

DPS (W) 484.9 581.9 872.8 969.8 969.8

Dividend Yield 0.71% 0.86% 1.28% 1.43% 1.43%

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.05 6.21 2.46 2.03 1.79

P/FCFE (x) 26.94 NA 9.37 8.94 9.11

Net Gearing (4.5%) 0.8% (12.5%) (22.9%) (28.6%)

P/BV (x) 2.31 2.06 1.51 1.17 0.97

ROE 21.9% 13.0% 35.0% 27.1% 20.4%

% Change In Normalised EPS Estimates 31.6% 54.2% 54.2%

Normalised EPS/consensus EPS (x) 1.08 1.12 1.09

88

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Price Close Relative to KOSPI (RHS)

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Semiconductor│South Korea│SK Hynix│July 6, 2017

2

Figure 1: DRAM supply-demand model

SOURCE: CIMB ESTIMATES, COMPANY, WSTS

Figure 2: Hyper-scale memory customers’ capex trends… Figure 3: …suggest continued strength in server DRAM demand

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, BLOOMBERG SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH ESTIMATES, IHS

(% qoq, yoy) 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Total supply (m GB) 2,549 2,698 2,936 3,088 3,046 3,204 3,387 3,664 5,942 7,011 9,167 11,271 13,300

Total supply growth -6.7% 5.9% 8.8% 5.2% -1.3% 5.2% 5.7% 8.2% 39% 18% 31% 23% 18%

SEC -12% 8% 10% 8% -5% 6% 6% 8% 55% 30% 40% 18% 18%

Hynix -5% 4% 9% 1% 1% 5% 7% 10% 33% 23% 25% 21% 18%

Micron 1% 5% 8% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 77% -4% 24% 41% 20%

Others -8% -5% 3% 3% -5% 3% 3% 3% -3% 0% 10% 8% 2%

Market share (%)

SEC 45% 45% 46% 47% 46% 46% 46% 46% 41% 45% 48% 46% 46%

Hynix 28% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 30% 28% 28% 28%

Micron 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 23% 23% 26% 21% 20% 23% 24%

Elpida 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Others 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%

Total demand (m GB) 2,615 2,720 2,948 3,187 3,026 3,206 3,441 3,764 5,963 6,807 9,503 11,470 13,436

Total demand growth -8% 4% 8% 8% -5% 6% 7% 9% 32% 14% 40% 21% 17%

PC (m GB) 432 428 469 509 440 431 484 500 1,648 1,655 1,799 1,838 1,856

PC shipment (% yoy) -4% -4% -3% -3% 0% -1% 1% -4% -2% -10% -2% -3% -1%

GB/PC 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 5.3 5.9 6.6 7.0 7.1

Smartphone (m GB) 883 902 1,004 1,198 1,095 1,128 1,256 1,472 1,461 1,986 2,951 3,987 4,951

Smartphone shipment (% yoy) 10% 4% 3% -1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 28% 12% 3% 4% 3%

GB/smartphone 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.1

Server (m GB) 579 633 681 765 766 876 942 1,042 948 1,279 1,834 2,659 3,627

Server shipment (% yoy) 3% 3% 2% 4% 0% 3% 3% 3% 5% 8% 7% 3% 2%

GB/server 157 168 180 192 208 226 242 254 74 92 124 175 233

Others 721 757 795 715 724 770 759 749 1,906 1,886 2,918 2,987 3,003

% of total demand 28% 28% 27% 22% 24% 24% 22% 20% 32% 28% 31% 26% 22%

Oversupply/(Shortage) -2.5% -0.8% -0.4% -3.1% 0.7% -0.1% -1.6% -2.7% -0.3% 3.0% -3.5% -1.7% -1.0%

0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Facebook Amazon Netflix Google Microsoft

(US$bn)

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Server DRAM demand (m GB)

(m GB)


3

Figure 4: Earnings revision

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY

Figure 5: Comparison of CIMB’s earnings forecasts vs. Bloomberg consensus

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY, BLOOMBERG

Figure 6: Quarterly earnings forecasts


(W bn)

Old New Change (%) Old New Change (%) Old New Change (%)

Sales 25,854 28,754 11.2 26,097 30,686 17.6 26,818 31,165 16.2

DRAM 18,671 21,151 13.3 18,362 22,537 22.7 18,736 22,871 22.1

NAND flash and others 7,183 7,604 5.9 7,735 8,149 5.4 8,082 8,293 2.6

Operating profit 9,948 12,930 30.0 8,786 13,253 50.8 8,180 12,309 50.5

Margin (%) 38.5% 45.0% 33.7% 43.2% 0.0% 30.5% 39.5% 0.0%

DRAM 8,736 11,183 28.0 7,730 11,639 50.6 7,419 11,002 48.3

Margin (%) 46.8% 52.9% 42.1% 51.6% 0.0% 39.6% 48.1% 0.0%

NAND flash and others 1,212 1,747 44.2 1,056 1,614 52.8 761 1,307 71.8

Margin (%) 16.9% 23.0% 13.7% 19.8% 0.0% 9.4% 15.8% 0.0%

Net profit 7,543 9,925 31.6 6,603 10,180 54.2 6,169 9,514 54.2

Margin (%) 29.2% 34.5% 25.3% 33.2% 0.0% 23.0% 30.5% 0.0%

EPS (Won) 10,362 13,634 31.6 9,070 13,983 54.2 8,473 13,068 54.2

Assumptions

Blended ASP (US$)

DRAM (1Gb equiv) 0.67 0.75 11.6 0.57 0.69 22.3 0.49 0.61 24.5

NAND flash (8Gb equiv) 0.32 0.34 6.6 0.26 0.30 13.6 0.21 0.24 11.2

Shipment volume (m units)

DRAM (1Gb equiv) 24,581 24,999 1.7 29,155 29,472 1.1 34,784 34,300 (1.4)

NAND flash (8Gb equiv) 23,235 23,235 - 31,533 29,367 (6.9) 39,899 36,923 (7.5)

Won/US$ 1,138 1,132 (0.5) 1,115 1,107 (0.7) 1,108 1,100 (0.7)

2017F 2018F 2019F

1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 2017F 2018F 2019F

CIMB Sales 6,290 6,810 7,661 28,754 30,686 31,165

OP 2,468 2,962 3,663 12,930 13,253 12,309

NP 1,898 2,288 2,800 9,925 10,180 9,514

OPM 39.2% 43.5% 47.8% 45.0% 43.2% 39.5%

NPM 30.2% 33.6% 36.5% 34.5% 33.2% 30.5%

Consensus Sales 6,290 6,834 7,457 28,423 29,759 30,351

OP 2,468 2,997 3,400 12,201 11,989 11,349

NP 1,898 2,354 2,674 9,663 9,469 8,820

OPM 39.2% 43.9% 45.6% 42.9% 40.3% 37.4%

NPM 30.2% 34.4% 35.9% 34.0% 31.8% 29.1%

Difference Sales 0.0% -0.4% 2.7% 1.2% 3.1% 2.7%

OP 0.0% -1.2% 7.7% 6.0% 10.5% 8.5%

NP 0.0% -2.8% 4.7% 2.7% 7.5% 7.9%

(Consolidated, Wbn)

(W bn) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Consolidated sales 3,656 3,941 4,244 5,358 6,290 6,810 7,661 7,993 17,198 28,754 30,686 31,165

DRAM 2,794 2,817 2,928 3,874 4,579 5,084 5,700 5,787 12,414 21,151 22,537 22,871

NAND and others 861 1,124 1,316 1,484 1,711 1,725 1,961 2,206 4,784 7,604 8,149 8,293

% of sales

DRAM 76% 71% 69% 72% 73% 75% 74% 72% 72% 74% 73% 73%

NAND and others 24% 29% 31% 28% 27% 25% 26% 28% 28% 26% 27% 27%

Consolidated operating profit 562 453 726 1,536 2,468 2,962 3,663 3,839 3,277 12,930 13,253 12,309

DRAM 710 506 669 1,438 2,171 2,637 3,181 3,194 3,324 11,183 11,639 11,002

NAND and others -149 -53 57 98 296 325 481 645 -47 1,747 1,614 1,307

Operating margin (%) 15.4% 11.5% 17.1% 28.7% 39.2% 43.5% 47.8% 48.0% 19.1% 45.0% 43.2% 39.5%

DRAM 25.4% 18.0% 22.8% 37.1% 47.4% 51.9% 55.8% 55.2% 26.8% 52.9% 51.6% 48.1%

NAND and others -17.2% -4.8% 4.3% 6.6% 17.3% 18.8% 24.6% 29.2% -1.0% 23.0% 19.8% 15.8%

% of operating profit

DRAM 126% 112% 92% 94% 88% 89% 87% 83% 101% 86% 88% 89%

NAND and others -26% -12% 8% 6% 12% 11% 13% 17% -1% 14% 12% 11%

Net profit 448 286 598 1,629 1,899 2,289 2,801 2,941 2,960 9,929 10,184 9,518

Net Margin (%) 12.3% 7.3% 14.1% 30.4% 30.2% 33.6% 36.6% 36.8% 17.2% 34.5% 33.2% 30.5%


4

Figure 7: Key assumptions


Figure 8: P&L summary


(W bn) 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

DRAM revenue 2,794 2,817 2,928 3,874 4,579 5,084 5,700 5,787 12,414 21,151 22,537 22,871

qoq growth (%) -14.7% 0.8% 3.9% 32.3% 18.2% 11.0% 12.1% 1.5%

yoy growth (%) -23.1% -19.0% -20.5% 18.2% 63.9% 80.5% 94.7% 49.4% -11.8% 70.4% 6.6% 1.5%

Operating Profit 710.4 506.3 669.1 1438.5 2171.3 2636.9 3181.0 3194.1 3324.2 11183.4 11639.2 11002.1

qoq growth (%) -29.3% -28.7% 32.1% 115.0% 51.0% 21.4% 20.6% 0.4%

yoy growth (%) -52.0% -61.6% -50.4% 43.1% 205.7% 420.8% 375.4% 122.1% -35.5% 236.4% 4.1% -5.5%

Operating margin (%) 25.4% 18.0% 22.8% 37.1% 47.4% 51.9% 55.8% 55.2% 26.8% 52.9% 51.6% 48.1%

Assumptions (1Gb equiv.)

Blended ASP (US$) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6

qoq growth (%) -14.9% -11.4% -0.1% 13.7% 24.4% 8.6% 3.8% 1.0%

yoy growth (%) -36.6% -39.2% -31.8% -14.3% 25.2% 53.5% 59.5% 41.6% -31.4% 44.3% -7.1% -12.5%

Shipment (m units) 4,247 4,990 5,389 6,063 5,790 6,039 6,552 6,618 20,689 24,999 29,472 34,300

qoq growth (%) -3.4% 17.5% 8.0% 12.5% -4.5% 4.3% 8.5% 1.0%

yoy growth (%) 11.2% 25.6% 21.8% 37.9% 36.3% 21.0% 21.6% 9.2% 24.5% 20.8% 17.9% 16.4%

Fully loaded cost (US$) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

qoq growth (%) -8.5% -2.5% -6.0% -7.3% 4.1% -0.6% -4.7% 2.4%

yoy growth (%) -20.2% -19.7% -17.0% -22.3% -11.7% -9.9% -8.6% 0.9% -20.8% -7.2% -4.6% -6.1%

NAND flash revenue 775.0 1012.8 1175.5 1344.8 1503.2 1559.3 1790.9 2034.9 4308.1 6888.3 7598.9 7609.7

qoq growth (%) -19.3% 30.7% 16.1% 14.4% 11.8% 3.7% 14.8% 13.6%

yoy growth (%) -26.0% -3.0% 8.0% 40.0% 94.0% 54.0% 52.4% 51.3%

Operating Profit -162.5 -61.3 46.2 153.8 324.1 347.0 504.3 667.6 -23.7 1,843.0 1,687.4 1,286.3

qoq growth (%) nmf nmf nmf 232.5% 110.7% 7.1% 45.3% 32.4%

yoy growth (%) nmf nmf 108.5% nmf nmf nmf 990.5% 334.1% nmf nmf -8.4% -23.8%

Operating margin (%) -21.0% -6.0% 3.9% 11.4% 21.6% 22.3% 28.2% 32.8% -0.6% 26.8% 22.2% 16.9%

Assumptions (8Gb equiv.)

Blended ASP (US$) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

qoq growth (%) -12.3% -11.3% 7.2% 13.7% 15.2% 5.4% 3.0% 1.0%

yoy growth (%) -41.1% -43.4% -28.7% -5.2% 24.5% 48.0% 42.2% 26.4% -29.1% 32.1% -12.7% -20.3%

Shipment (m units) 3,254 4,953 5,567 5,417 5,282 5,303 5,939 6,711 19,192 23,235 29,367 36,923

qoq growth (%) -11.4% 52.2% 12.4% -2.7% -2.5% 0.4% 12.0% 13.0%

yoy growth (%) 15.2% 61.6% 58.2% 47.5% 62.3% 7.1% 6.7% 23.9% 46.7% 21.1% 26.4% 25.7%

Fully loaded cost (US$) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

qoq growth (%) 0.0% -22.2% -2.9% 4.8% 2.1% 4.5% -4.8% -5.5%

yoy growth (%) -26.4% -38.8% -30.1% -20.9% -19.2% 8.5% 6.4% -4.1% -28.4% -3.8% -7.3% -14.9%

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenue 3,656 3,941 4,244 5,358 6,290 6,810 7,661 7,993 17,198 28,754 30,686 31,165

Cost of sales 2,338 2,689 2,792 2,968 2,985 2,916 3,040 3,098 10,787 12,039 13,133 14,586

Operating costs 756 799 725 853 837 932 959 1,056 3,134 3,785 4,300 4,269

EBITDA 1,640 1,579 1,834 2,680 3,633 4,162 4,882 5,103 7,733 17,780 18,792 18,617

EBIT 562 453 726 1,536 2,468 2,962 3,663 3,839 3,277 12,930 13,253 12,309

Non operating income/loss 8 -67 -8 35 -89 -19 -17 -11 -31 -137 6 84

Associates 3 11 2 6 0 0 0 0 23 -1 -1 -1

NPBT 558 383 704 1,571 2,370 2,934 3,638 3,819 3,216 12,761 13,226 12,361

Tax 110 97 106 -57 471 646 837 878 256 2,832 3,042 2,843

Net Profit 448 286 598 1,629 1,899 2,289 2,801 2,941 2,960 9,929 10,184 9,518


5

Figure 9: 12-month forward P/E Figure 10: 12-month forward P/BV

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, QUANTIWISE SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, QUANTIWISE

Figure 11: Peer comparison


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Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

Price 10.5x 9.0x 7.5x 6.0x 4.5x

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(W)

Price TP

(local

curr)

(local

curr)FY17F FY18F FY17F FY18F FY17F FY18F FY17F FY18F FY17F FY18F

SK Hynix 000660 KS ADD 68,000 93,000 43,032 5.0 4.9 86.8% 1.5 1.2 34.1% 27.1% 2.5 2.0 1.3% 1.4%

Samsung Electronics 005930 KS ADD 2,379,000 3,000,000 270,219 9.4 8.3 33.3% 1.7 1.4 18.7% 17.8% 4.2 3.7 1.7% 1.7%

Toshiba Corp 6502 JP not rated 259.80 na 9,730 na 2.7 na na 2.3 209.8% -0.1% 20.0 4.0 0.0% 0.1%

Micron Technology Inc MU US not rated 30.51 na 33,990 6.6 5.1 47.9% 2.0 1.5 32.7% 29.5% 4.2 3.6 0.0% 0.0%

Nanya Technology Corp 2408 TT not rated 55.00 na 4,956 11.4 10.7 -3.6% 1.6 1.4 15.8% 15.8% 7.2 6.7 3.1% 3.3%

Inotera Memories Inc 3474 TT not rated na na na na na -41.7% na na 4.5% 6.5% na na na na

Average 8.4 7.4 39.6% 1.7 1.4 26.9% 19.5% 4.5 3.5 1.4% 1.5%

P/BV (x) Recurring ROE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%)

CompanyBBG

TickerRecom.

Mkt Cap

(US$ m)

Core P/E (x)2-year EPS

CAGR (%)


6

BY THE NUMBERS

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

Jan-13A Jan-14A Jan-15A Jan-16A Jan-17F Jan-18F

P/BV vs ROE

Rolling P/BV (x) (lhs) ROE (rhs)

-340%

160%

660%

1,160%

1,660%

2,160%

2,660%

3,160%

3,660%

2.6

3.6

4.6

5.6

6.6

7.6

8.6

9.6

10.6

Jan-13A Jan-14A Jan-15A Jan-16A Jan-17F Jan-18F

12-mth Fwd FD Normalised P/E vs FD Normalised EPS Growth

12-mth Fwd Rolling FD Normalised P/E (x) (lhs)

Diluted Normalised EPS Growth (rhs)

Profit & Loss

(Wm) Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Total Net Revenues 18,797,990 17,197,990 28,754,231 30,686,013 31,164,670

Gross Profit 8,282,630 6,410,850 16,715,392 17,552,639 16,578,366

Operating EBITDA 9,289,330 7,733,210 17,779,519 18,791,566 18,616,975

Depreciation And Amortisation (3,953,240) (4,456,460) (4,849,116) (5,538,729) (6,308,088)

Operating EBIT 5,336,090 3,276,750 12,930,403 13,252,837 12,308,888

Financial Income/(Expense) (77,790) (85,950) (67,586) 5,507 84,385

Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. 24,650 22,750 (920) (920) (920)

Non-Operating Income/(Expense) (13,830) 2,900 (100,650) (31,320) (31,320)

Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 5,269,120 3,216,450 12,761,247 13,226,104 12,361,033

Exceptional Items

Pre-tax Profit 5,269,120 3,216,450 12,761,247 13,226,104 12,361,033

Taxation (945,520) (255,970) (2,832,081) (3,042,004) (2,843,038)

Exceptional Income - post-tax

Profit After Tax 4,323,600 2,960,480 9,929,166 10,184,100 9,517,995

Minority Interests (1,250) (6,710) (3,892) (4,148) (4,198)

Preferred Dividends

FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax

Other Adjustments - post-tax 0 0 0 0 0

Preference Dividends (Australia)

Net Profit 4,322,350 2,953,770 9,925,273 10,179,952 9,513,797

Normalised Net Profit 4,323,600 2,960,480 9,929,166 10,184,100 9,517,995

Fully Diluted Normalised Profit 4,322,350 2,953,770 9,925,273 10,179,952 9,513,797

Cash Flow


EBITDA 9,289,330 7,733,210 17,779,519 18,791,566 18,616,975

Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. 24,650 22,750 (920) (920) (920)

Change In Working Capital 1,157,040 (1,105,880) (1,706,766) (514,028) (270,802)

(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions

Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense

Other Operating Cashflow (128,180) (759,240) (998,870) (30,400) (30,400)

Net Interest (Paid)/Received (77,790) (85,950) (67,586) 5,507 84,385

Tax Paid (945,520) (255,970) (2,832,081) (3,042,004) (2,843,038)

Cashflow From Operations 9,319,530 5,548,920 12,173,296 15,209,721 15,556,200

Capex (6,774,630) (5,956,360) (7,048,497) (8,458,197) (9,304,016)

Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries 220,100 162,120 2,130 0 0

Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments

Other Investing Cashflow (571,000) (436,210) 619,670 0 0

Cash Flow From Investing (7,125,530) (6,230,450) (6,426,697) (8,458,197) (9,304,016)

Debt Raised/(repaid) (356,180) 517,390 (465,963) (1,214,279) (818,321)

Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 0 0 0 0 0

Shares Repurchased

Dividends Paid (218,400) (353,000) (423,601) (635,402) (706,002)

Preferred Dividends

Other Financing Cashflow (882,920) (138,450) (1,018,811) (541,614) (601,124)

Cash Flow From Financing (1,457,500) 25,940 (1,908,375) (2,391,295) (2,125,447)

Total Cash Generated 736,500 (655,590) 3,838,224 4,360,229 4,126,737

Free Cashflow To Equity 1,837,820 (164,140) 5,280,636 5,537,245 5,433,863

Free Cashflow To Firm 2,312,500 (561,400) 5,862,496 6,839,461 6,312,755


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BY THE NUMBERS… cont’d

SOURCE: CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA

Balance Sheet


Total Cash And Equivalents 4,791,270 4,135,680 7,973,904 12,334,133 16,460,870

Total Debtors 2,628,450 3,251,650 5,005,380 5,341,654 5,424,976

Inventories 1,923,380 2,026,200 2,148,448 2,343,778 2,603,067

Total Other Current Assets 416,930 425,450 433,103 429,788 428,580

Total Current Assets 9,760,030 9,838,980 15,560,835 20,449,353 24,917,494

Fixed Assets 16,966,250 18,777,400 21,442,082 24,708,285 28,084,310

Total Investments 1,246,720 1,684,050 1,619,480 1,619,480 1,619,480

Intangible Assets 1,704,880 1,915,570 2,133,203 2,343,862 2,563,845

Total Other Non-Current Assets 30 20 10 10 10

Total Non-current Assets 19,917,880 22,377,040 25,194,775 28,671,637 32,267,645

Short-term Debt 1,013,370 704,860 736,208 599,646 488,415

Current Portion of Long-Term Debt

Total Creditors 791,370 696,140 738,263 805,384 894,482

Other Current Liabilities 3,035,960 2,759,850 2,894,592 2,841,732 2,823,235

Total Current Liabilities 4,840,700 4,160,850 4,369,063 4,246,762 4,206,132

Total Long-term Debt 2,805,220 3,631,120 3,133,810 2,056,093 1,349,002

Hybrid Debt - Debt Component

Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 644,290 400,530 480,105 500,953 505,026

Total Non-current Liabilities 3,449,510 4,031,650 3,613,915 2,557,045 1,854,028

Total Provisions 0 0 0 0 0

Total Liabilities 8,290,210 8,192,500 7,982,978 6,803,807 6,060,161

Shareholders' Equity 21,387,700 24,023,530 32,772,632 42,317,183 51,124,978

Minority Interests

Total Equity 21,387,700 24,023,530 32,772,632 42,317,183 51,124,978

Key Ratios

Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

Revenue Growth 9.8% (8.5%) 67.2% 6.7% 1.6%

Operating EBITDA Growth 9% (17%) 130% 6% (1%)

Operating EBITDA Margin 49.4% 45.0% 61.8% 61.2% 59.7%

Net Cash Per Share (W) 1,336 (275) 5,637 13,294 20,087

BVPS (W) 29,379 32,999 45,017 58,128 70,226

Gross Interest Cover 45.0 27.3 111.6 150.7 203.2

Effective Tax Rate 17.9% 8.0% 22.2% 23.0% 23.0%

Net Dividend Payout Ratio 8.2% 14.3% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4%

Accounts Receivables Days 61.76 62.57 52.41 61.54 63.05

Inventory Days 59.37 67.00 63.28 62.42 61.89

Accounts Payables Days 27.41 25.24 21.74 21.45 21.27

ROIC (%) 30.1% 16.5% 56.4% 48.1% 39.1%

ROCE (%) 22.7% 12.4% 39.9% 32.7% 25.4%

Return On Average Assets 15.6% 9.8% 27.4% 22.7% 17.7%

Key Drivers

Dec-15A Dec-16A Dec-17F Dec-18F Dec-19F

ASP Change (%, Main Product) 2.2% -19.8% -31.4% -7.1% -12.5%

Unit sales growth (%, main prod) 33.2% 23.4% 24.5% 17.9% 16.4%

No. Of Lines (main Product) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Rev per line (US$, main prod) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

ASP chg (%, 2ndary prod) -39.0% -25.5% -29.1% -12.7% -20.3%

Unit sales grth (%, 2ndary prod) 60.5% 66.3% 46.7% 26.4% 25.7%

No. Of Lines (secondary Product) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Rev per line (US$, 2ndary prod) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A


8

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9

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10

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11

investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this report.

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AAV, ADVANC, AMATA, ANAN, AOT, AP, BA, BANPU, BBL, BCH, BCP, BCPG, BDMS, BEAUTY, BEC, BEM, BJC, BH, BIG, BLA, BLAND, BPP, BTS, CBG, CENTEL, CHG, CK, CKP, COM7, CPALL, CPF, CPN, DELTA, DTAC, EA, EGCO, EPG, GFPT, GLOBAL, GLOW, GPSC, GUNKUL, HMPRO, INTUCH, IRPC, ITD, IVL, KBANK, KCE, KKP, KTB, KTC, LH, LHBANK, LPN, MAJOR, MALEE, MEGA, MINT, MONO, MTLS, PLANB, PSH, PTL, PTG, PTT, PTTEP, PTTGC, QH, RATCH, ROBINS, S, SAWAD, SCB, SCC, SCCC, SIRI, SPALI, SPRC, STEC, STPI, SUPER, TASCO, TCAP, THAI, THANI, THCOM, TISCO, TKN, TMB, TOP, TPIPL, TRUE, TTA, TU, TVO, UNIQ, VGI, WHA, WORK.

Corporate Governance Report:

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Score Range: 90 - 100 80 - 89 70 - 79 Below 70 or No Survey Result

Description: Excellent Very Good Good N/A

United Arab Emirates: The distributor of this report has not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is strictly private and confidential and has not been reviewed by, deposited or registered with UAE Central Bank or any other licensing authority or governmental agencies in the United Arab Emirates. This report is being issued outside the United Arab Emirates to a limited number of institutional investors and must not be provided to any person other than the original recipient and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. Further, the information contained in this report is not intended to lead to the sale of investments under any subscription agreement or the conclusion of any other contract of whatsoever nature within the territory of the United Arab Emirates.

United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom and European Economic Area, this report is being disseminated by CIMB Securities (UK) Limited (“CIMB UK”). CIMB UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and its registered office is at 27 Knightsbridge, London, SW1X7YB. Unless specified to the contrary, this report has been issued and approved for distribution in the U.K. and the EEA by CIMB UK. Investment research issued by CIMB UK has been prepared in accordance with CIMB Group’s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research. This report is for distribution only to, and is solely directed at, selected persons on the basis that those persons: (a) are eligible counterparties and professional clients of CIMB UK; (b) have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended, the “Order”), (c) fall within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc”) of the Order; (d) are outside the United Kingdom subject to relevant regulation in each jurisdiction, or (e) are persons to whom an invitation or inducement to engage in


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investment activity (within the meaning of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) in connection with any investments to which this report relates may otherwise lawfully be communicated or caused to be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This report is directed only at relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.

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Spitzer Chart for stock being researched ( 2 year data )

SK Hynix (000660 KS)

Rating Distribution (%) Investment Banking clients (%)

Add 55.9% 5.2%

Hold 30.0% 1.6%

Reduce 10.4% 0.3%

Distribution of stock ratings and investment banking clients for quarter ended on 31 March 2017

1244 companies under coverage for quarter ended on 31 March 2017

21,000

31,000

41,000

51,000

61,000

71,000

81,000

Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17

Price Close

40,0

00

44,0

00

48,0

00

50,0

00

43,0

00

49,0

00

38,0

00

37,0

00

40,0

00

48,0

00

50,0

00

62,0

00

70,0

00

Recommendations & Target Price

Add Hold Reduce Not Rated


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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (Thai IOD) in 2016, Anti-Corruption 2016

AAV – Very Good, n/a, ADVANC – Very Good, Certified, AEONTS – Good, n/a, AMATA – Excellent, Declared, ANAN – Very Good, Declared, AOT – Excellent, Declared, AP – Very Good, Declared, ASK – Very Good, Declared, ASP – Very Good, Certified, BANPU – Very Good, Certified, BAY – Excellent, Certified, BBL – Very Good, Certified, BCH – not available, Declared, BCP - Excellent, Certified, BEM – Very Good, n/a, BDMS – Very Good, n/a, BEAUTY – Good, Declared, BEC - Good, n/a, BH - Good, Declared, BIGC - Excellent, Declared, BJC – Good, n/a, BJCHI – Good, Declared, BLA – Very Good, Certified, BPP – not available, n/a, BR - Good, n/a, BTS - Excellent, Certified, CBG – Good, n/a, CCET – not available, n/a, CENTEL – Very Good, Certified, CHG – Very Good, n/a, CK – Excellent, n/a, COL – Very Good, Declared, CPALL – not available, Declared, CPF – Excellent, Declared, CPN - Excellent, Certified, DELTA - Excellent, Declared, DEMCO – Excellent, Certified, DIF – not available, n/a, DTAC – Excellent, Certified, EA – Very Good, Declared, ECL – Good, Certified, EGCO - Excellent, Certified, EPG – Good, n/a, GFPT - Excellent, Declared, GLOBAL – Very Good, Declared, GLOW – Very Good, Certified, GPSC – Excellent, Declared, GRAMMY - Excellent, n/a, GUNKUL – Very Good, Declared, HANA - Excellent, Certified, HMPRO - Excellent, Declared, ICHI – Very Good, Declared, INTUCH - Excellent, Certified, ITD – Good, n/a, IVL - Excellent, Certified, JAS – not available, Declared, JASIF – not available, n/a, JUBILE – Good, Declared, KAMART – not available, n/a, KBANK - Excellent, Certified, KCE - Excellent, Certified, KGI – Good, Certified, KKP – Excellent, Certified, KSL – Very Good, Declared, KTB - Excellent, Certified, KTC – Excellent, Certified, LH - Very Good, n/a, LPN – Excellent, Declared, M – Very Good, Declared, MAJOR - Good, n/a, MAKRO – Good, Declared, MALEE – Very Good, Declared, MBKET – Very Good, Certified, MC – Very Good, Declared, MCOT – Excellent, Declared, MEGA – Very Good, Declared, MINT - Excellent, Certified, MTLS – Very Good, Declared, NYT – Excellent, n/a, OISHI – Very Good, n/a, PLANB – Very Good, Declared, PLAT – Good, Declared, PSH – not available, n/a, PSL - Excellent, Certified, PTT - Excellent, Certified, PTTEP - Excellent, Certified, PTTGC - Excellent, Certified, QH – Excellent, Declared, RATCH – Excellent, Certified, ROBINS – Very Good, Declared, RS – Very Good, n/a, SAMART - Excellent, n/a, SAPPE - Good, n/a, SAT – Excellent, Certified, SAWAD – Good, n/a, SC – Excellent, Declared, SCB - Excellent, Certified, SCBLIF – not available, n/a, SCC – Excellent, Certified, SCN – Good, Declared, SCCC - Excellent, Declared, SIM - Excellent, n/a, SIRI - Good, n/a, SPA - Good, n/a, SPALI - Excellent, Declared, SPRC – Very Good, Declared, STA – Very Good, Declared, STEC – Excellent, n/a, SVI – Excellent, Certified, TASCO – Very Good, Declared, TCAP – Excellent, Certified, THAI – Very Good, Declared, THANI – Very Good, Certified, THCOM – Excellent, Certified, THRE – Very Good, Certified, THREL – Very Good, Certified, TICON – Very Good, Declared, TIPCO – Very Good, Certified, TISCO - Excellent, Certified, TK – Very Good, n/a, TKN – Good, n/a, TMB - Excellent, Certified, TNR – not available, n/a, TOP - Excellent, Certified, TPCH – Good, n/a, TPIPP – not available, n/a, TRUE – Very Good, Declared, TTW – Very Good, Declared, TU – Excellent, Declared, TVO – Very Good, Declared UNIQ – not available, Declared, VGI – Excellent, Declared, WHA – not available, Declared, WHART – not available, n/a, WORK – not available, n/a.

Companies participating in Thailand’s Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of October 28, 2016) are categorized into:

- Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and

- Companies certified by CAC

CIMB Recommendation Framework

Stock Ratings Definition:

Add The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.

Hold The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.

Reduce The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.

The total expected return of a stock is defined as the sum of the: (i) percentage difference between the target price and the current price and (ii) the forward net dividend yields of the stock. Stock price targets have an investment horizon of 12 months.

Sector Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a positive absolute recommendation.

Neutral A Neutral rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a neutral absolute recommendation.

Underweight An Underweight rating means stocks in the sector have, on a market cap-weighted basis, a negative absolute recommendation.

Country Ratings Definition:

Overweight An Overweight rating means investors should be positioned with an above-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Neutral A Neutral rating means investors should be positioned with a neutral weight in this country relative to benchmark.

Underweight An Underweight rating means investors should be positioned with a below-market weight in this country relative to benchmark.

sk hynix south korea add (no change) consensus … dram demand from hyper-scale customers...

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