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SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE MARKET IN LATAM A custom report compiled by Euromonitor International for SABMiller

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Page 1: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE MARKET IN LATAM

A custom report compiled by Euromonitor International

for SABMiller

Page 2: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

3

A global strategic market intelligence source for 30+ years

Helping clients make informed decisions

Consumer-focused: industries, countries, consumers

Annually-updated syndicated research in 80 countries

Customized ad-hoc projects conducted globally in virtually every

market

800+ analysts in 80 countries

Regional research hubs and industry specialist support teams

Who is Euromonitor International

London

Singapore

Shanghai

Dubai

Vilnius

Cape Town

Santiago

Tokyo

Sydney

Chicago

Bangalore

London

Chicago

Singapore

Shanghai

Dubai

Vilnius

Cape Town

Santiago

Tokyo

Sydney

Bangalore

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

4

Research methodology

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

5

Project Background

SABMiller requested greater clarity on the size and shape of the illegal

alcohol market in order to create a comprehensive strategy that better

informed government agencies and health organizations

Furthermore, SABMiller required objective primary data to serve as a

benchmark for validating and/or complementing official agency reporting of

illegal alcohol sales

Client Objectives

Size the illegal alcohol market by country, including breakdowns by

category

Provide qualitative analysis describing the value chain of illegal alcoholic

beverages

Analyze sanitary registration processes for alcoholic beverages, identifying

those sold without proper registration

Provide cross country analysis, conclusions, and recommendations

indicating a full understanding of the market for implementation of

communication strategies

Review and leverage previous analysis in 6 countries, identifying strengths,

weaknesses and gaps to enhance Euromonitor’s methodology and serve as a

basis for best practices in subsequent studies

Detail current methodologies used by official agencies to define illegal

alcohol consumption

Project objectives

Category Coverage

Counterfeit & illegal brands

Substitution/Refill

Industrial manufacturing of illegal brands

Contraband

Ethanol (as raw material)

Contraband of finished products

Illegal artisanal alcohol

Surrogate

Country Coverage

Colombia

Ecuador

El Salvador

Honduras

Panama

Peru

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

6

Week Beginning

Kick Off 6/18 6/25 7/2 7/9 7/16 7/23 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/01 10/08

Project Alignment

Desk Research

and Previous

projects review

Desk Research

Field Research

Analysis and

Report Production

Validation of Data

Finalization

phase

Kick Off

June

15

Engagement

Sessions with

Local Teams

Validation

sessions with

Local teams

Delivery

Review

10/2

Final

Production

10/10

Project timeline

Discussions between parties to align project objectives, engagement sessions, project methodology and timeline.

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

Total store visits

41

Total interviews

200

Total weeks of research

16

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© Euromonitor International

8

State of the art methodology

“There is no internationally accepted standard for quantifying the size of the informal market or measuring its social and health consequences. The terminology, scope, complexity and scale of the studies are extremely varied. The lack of reliable and comparable information on the informal alcohol market contributes to the limitations of official alcohol consumption statistics hindering any real change in social policies.”

International Center for Alcohol Policies (ICAP) 2010. “Alcohol no comercial: Acerca del mercado informal”

Reviewing latest available methodologies

After exploring the available reports on illegal alcohol consumption from governments and international

associations, Euromonitor International concluded such studies were limited to two basic approaches:

1. Consumer panels

2. Official statistical reports on legal imports and tax collection

Both methodologies left large blind spots regarding the size of the total illegal alcohol market, including:

Consumer panels – Definitions used during surveys are not understood by respondents, social stigmas

associated with the topic skews results and regional sample bias

Official Statistics – Lack of statistics available for the artisanal and surrogate markets, out-of-date

numbers, variation in definitions from country to country, limited access to numbers due to bureaucratic

processes

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

9

A review of relevant legal information and available statistical sources gave Euromonitor International a

great starting point

Full alignment on all definitions, ensured a cross-country comparison that was truly, “apples-to-

apples”

Extended interviews with the supply chain allowed Euromonitor International to gather information

from those who know the market best

Euromonitor International methodology a good fit

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Secondary Research

Analyst teams combined available published information with the results from previous research studies commissioned (and provided) by SABMiller.

Analysts also utilized Euromonitor International’s Passport database and analysis.

Trade Interviews

Primary interviews were conducted in each market:

Ecuador (46)Perú (40)Colombia (42)Honduras (25)Panamá (20)El Salvador (27)Total = 200

Field visits

The following store visits were completed:

Ecuador (3)Perú (12)Colombia (2)Honduras (10)Panamá (3)El Salvador (11)Total = 41

Residual Analysis

Wherever sugar cane industry was identified as a source for illegal alcohol production, Euromonitor International updated or developed analysis to estimate the possible volume of residual ethanol used in the illegal market.

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

11

For the purposes of this study, the illegal alcohol market was divided into four categories, 1) counterfeit &

illegal brands, 2) contraband, 3) illegal artisanal alcohol, 4) surrogate

These definitions are inclusive and exhaustive, meaning all types of illegal alcohol present in the market are

included and can only be accounted in one category

Definitions

Category Subcategory Definition

Counterfeited & illegal brands

Substitution/refillWhen illegal alcohol is sold under legal brands or when empty bottles of legitimate products are refilled with cheaper alcohol

Industrial manufacturing of illegal brands or unbranded beverage alcohol

Involves manufacturing of illegally branded or unbranded beverage alcohol

Contraband Contraband of ethanol Illegal imports of ethanol as raw material

Contraband of the finished product Illegal imports of alcoholic beverages

Illegal artisanal alcoholArtisanal alcoholic beverages made for commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc.

SurrogateAlcohol not meant for human consumption i.e. Pharmaceutical alcohol, beverages mixed with methanol, etc.

Consistent definitions were necessary in order to compare the markets

Note: “Tax evasion” was part of the contraband category; however, were removed due to differences across countries regarding taxstructures. In order to maintain definitional consistency, the volumes estimated for Tax Evasion were not considered as part of the illegal alcohol market; however, Euromonitor International acknowledges the relevance of this subcategory in some countries.

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

12

The value chain analysis were used to avoid double counting

In many cases, illegal alcohol beverages can be designated to more than one category. For the purpose of

avoiding double-counting, and to better understand each of these categories, Euromonitor International

designated a given product to the category in which it first entered the illegal alcohol market of any given

country

For example, if an illegal artisanal beverage is created from contraband ethanol, the product, for the

purpose of this study, is considered as contraband, because the alcohol became illegal the instant it entered

the country without paying due taxes, prior to the artisanal production process

The following are two examples that help explain Euromonitor’s category assignments for the purpose of

this project:

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

14

- Reliable sources

- Updated and relevant statistical information

- Multiple approaches (consumer’s surveys, residual methodology)

- Different definitions

used across countries

- “Informal” instead of “illegal” designation

- Limited or incomplete categories coverage

SABMiller’s previous studies

As part of the first phase of the research, Euromonitor International reviewed all previous country studies

and incorporated pertinent results into our research program

In certain cases, the lack of definitional alignment across studies limited the application of study results

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

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Illegal alcohol has different shapes

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© Euromonitor International

17

Counterfeit and illegal brands are almost exclusive to low-income segments

There is a certain level of acceptance and perceived legitimacy of contraband products across all countries

Artisanal consumption is driven by cultural factors – which are difficult for governments to control – and price

Surrogate products are largely consumed by those with heavy substance abuse issues, generally homeless populations

Key takeaways

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

19

Shape of the alcoholic beverages market (1)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Total Alcoholic Beverage Market in LATAM (HL LAE)

Counterfeit and contraband represent the largest threat in the region

Illegal Market in LATAM (HL LAE)

21%79%

Illegal Market Legal Market

42%

39%

11%

8%

Counterfeit Contraband

Illegal artisanal Surrogate

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© Euromonitor International

20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Colombia Ecuador El Salvador Honduras Panama Peru

Illegal Market Legal Market

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Peru and Ecuador have illegal market shares (LAE) above the regional

weighted average

14.3%

24.8%

21.3%10.7%

2.1%

31.6%

21%

Weighted regional average

Shape of the alcoholic beverages market (2)

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© Euromonitor International

21INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Shape of the alcoholic beverages market (3) including tax evasion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Colombia Ecuador El Salvador Honduras Panama Peru

Illegal Market Legal Market

16.2%

29.1%

40.5%

21.4%

3.3%

32.0%

23.9%

Peru, Ecuador and El Salvador have illegal market shares (LAE) above the regional weighted average

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© Euromonitor International

22

Size of the alcoholic beverages market

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Legal Market(HL LAE)

Illegal Market (HL LAE)

Total Market (HL LAE)

Total Population >15

years (Mn)

Illegal Alcohol Per Capita >15

years (LAE)

Colombia 1,286,852 214,896 1,501,748 33.6 0.6

Ecuador 483,000 159,288 642,288 9.7 1.6

El Salvador 93,483 25,256 118,738 4.3 0.6

Honduras 118,328 14,202 132,530 4.9 0.3

Panama 126,085 2,738 128,823 2.6 0.1

Peru 730,568 337,643 1,068,211 21.0 1.6

Region 2,838,315 754,023 3,592,338 76.1 1.0

Colombia represents the largest legal market while Peru is the largest illegal

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© Euromonitor International

23

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Surrogate

Illegal artisanal

Contraband

Counterfeit

Shape and size of the illegal market

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

28.5% 21.1% 44.8%

Colombia, Ecuador and Peru account for more than 94% of the total illegal

market

Colombia Ecuador Peru

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© Euromonitor International

24INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Honduras

Colombia

Ecuador

Panama

El

Salvador

Peru

Ethanol trade flow

CO EC SV HN PN PE Others

CO X X X DR, NL

EC X X X USA

SV X USA

HN No Exports

PN X PR, NI, DR

PE X X CA, CL

Exports: Honduras is the only country that doesn’t export Ethanol

CO= Colombia, EC= Ecuador, SV= El Salvador, HN= Honduras, PN= Panama, PE= Peru,

DR= Dominican Republic, NL= Netherlands, PR= Puerto Rico, NI= Nicaragua,

CA= Canada, CL= Chile

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© Euromonitor International

25INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Contraband trade flow

Honduras

Colombia

Ecuador

PanamaEl

Salvador

Peru

Contraband Free Zone of Colon

Contraband regular borders

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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© Euromonitor International

27

Colombia alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Illegal alcohol accounts for 14.3% of the market

ILLEGAL214,896 HL

(14.3%)WINE17,782 HL

BEER786,988 HL

RTD 2,549 HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

214,896

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

1,501,748 HL

SPIRITS479,533 HL

LE

GA

L (

81

%)

37,9%

36,9%

4,3%

20,9%

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28

Colombia shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Counterfeit leads the way

Industrial manufacturing of illegal brands/unbranded is the largest subcategory within counterfeit,

representing 91.4% of total counterfeit in LAE, of which 100% is distilled due to the high demand for

cheaper distilled products coupled with the higher profit margins compared to beer. Aguardiente is the

beverage with the highest likelihood to fall into this illegal category

Contraband of finished products was the second largest illegal category. Whiskey (Old Parr, Johnnie

Walker, Ballantine’s, Grant’s) is the most common contraband product found in Colombia

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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ILLEGAL159,288 HL

(24.8%)

Ecuador alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

WINE12,000HL

BEER248,000 HL

RTD 2,000 HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

159,288

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

642,288 HL

SPIRITS221,000 HL

LE

GA

L (

75

.2%

)

Illegal alcohol accounts for 24.8% of the market

13,8%

76,6%

9,0%

0,7%

Note: The total illegal market in Ecuador, including tax evasion

is 198,058 HL, 30.8% of the total market.

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Ecuador shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Recent tax increases change landscape

The largest illegal alcohol category is contraband. Recent tax increases (particularly the ICE), boosted the

growth of illegal alcohol within the past five years, while reducing the sale of legal/formal liquor in Ecuador

Counterfeit and illegal brands is the second most important category. Ecuador's Ministry of Health

estimates the number of illegal brands to be about 100, in a market of approximately 1,350 registered

brands

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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ILLEGAL25,256 HL

(21.3%)

El Salvador alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

WINE1,600 HL

BEER36,490 HL

RTD 301.8HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

25,256

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

118,738 HL

SPIRITS55,091HL

LE

GA

L (

78

.7%

)

Illegal alcohol accounts for 21.3 % of the market

46,9%

2,1%3,7%

47,4%

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© Euromonitor International

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El Salvador shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Surrogate and Counterfeit lead the way

Of the total illegal market, the most significant segments are surrogate and counterfeit, followed by illegal

artisanal drinks

Surrogate is common in small, rural areas of the country where unemployment rates are highest. Surrogate

is also readily available in the central markets of major cities

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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Honduras alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Illegal alcohol accounts for 11% of the market

ILLEGAL14,202 HL

(11.0%)

WINE163.4 HL

BEER55,260 HL

RTD 131 HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

14,202

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

132,530 HL

SPIRITS58,800 HL

LE

GA

L (

89

%)

30,4%

69,6%

Note: The total illegal market in Honduras, including tax evasion

is 32,187 HL, 21.4% of the total market.

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34

Honduras shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Contraband leads the way

The contraband category in Honduras is the largest category, especially the contraband of ethanol as raw

material

Within the sub category of finished products, 6% of the drinks are distilled and 97% are fermented

(specifically beer). The most commonly sold brands of distilled contraband drinks are premium brands such

as Johnny Walker, Absolut Vodka, and Chivas Regal among others.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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35

ILLEGAL2,738 HL

(2.1%)

Panama alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

WINE900 HL

BEER89,190 HL

RTD 121.5 HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

2,738

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

128,823 HL

SPIRITS35,873 HL

LE

GA

L (

97

.9%

)

Illegal alcohol accounts for 2.1% of the market

14,7%

8,3%

76,0%

1,0%

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36

Panama shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Illegal artisanal plays heavily in this small market

Illegal artisanal is the largest category within the illegal market. Artisanal alcoholic beverages tend to be

sold directly from the producer to consumer at the producer’s home. These products can occasionally be

found in quioscos, which are small retailers that sell basic necessities in rural areas

The second most important category is counterfeit drinks which are most commonly found in on-premise

establishments as refills

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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37

ILLEGAL337,644 HL

(31.6%)

Peru alcohol landscape (HL LAE)

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

WINE43,560 HL

BEER607,635 HL

RTD 2,055 HL

Counterfeit/

Illegal

Illegal

Artisanal

Contraband

HL of Illegal

Alcohol

337,644

Surrogate

TOTAL ALCOHOL:

1,068,211HL

SPIRITS77,717 HL

LE

GA

L (

68

.4%

)

Illegal alcohol accounts for 31.6% of the market

58,2%

24,5%

16,6%

0,7%

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38

Peru shape and size

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Counterfeit products are widely available

Counterfeit products are the most common illegal alcoholic drinks in the Peruvian market. These products

are popular with consumers because they are cheaper than their legal counterparts, widely available

throughout both formal and informal channels, and are difficult to recognize as illegal. Refilled alcoholic

drinks are also common, especially among premium products such as whiskies and rums

The second most important group of illegal alcoholic drinks is the artisanal category. These products are

manufactured on a small scale and are frequently fit for human consumption

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Substitute/Refill Industrialmanufacturing of

illegalbrands/unbranded

Ethanol (as rawmaterial)

Finished product(illegal imports)

Illegal artisanalalcohol

Surrogate

HL LAE

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

DEFINITIONS

PREVIOUS STUDIES

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGION

COUNTRIES

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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40

Next steps: Connecting dots, regionally, globally, cross industry

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Currently in processExpansion of existing project t to scope to all of LATAM

Euromonitor is currently working with a multitude of leading beverage companies across the region to duplicate research and rollup into region wide learnings.

Expansion of existing project to other regions globally:

Euromonitor is working with SAB corporate to expand research to Eastern Europe and Africa.

Sab Miller LATAM, next steps:

Euromonitor and SAB Miller are currently executing phase two of research: metrics in value, updating of volume figures, tax evasion analysis across the supply chain.

Things to think aboutMacro dynamic drivers:

What variables can we link from country to country, region to region? Where are the similarities? What synergies can be created to more effectively combat IA globally?

Expansion to other illegal/illicit categories:

Replicating methodology, what can we find in the size and shape of illegal pharma, cosmetics, tobacco, luxury products ect. that co relates to alcohol?

Where are there possible synergies?

What are the cultural take aways?

Are they connected and if so, how?

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INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

KEY TAKEAWAYS

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

COUNTRY OVERVIEW

NEXT STEPS

APPENDIX

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42

Colombia - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Used

labels/caps

Bottling/

Alcoholic

drinks

producers

“Cocinas”

Distributors /

Illegal

Wholesalers

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Bottle

Recyclers

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Ethanol

providers

Illegal

stamps

production

Page 43: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

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43

XXX%Colombia - Contraband value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Alcoholic drinks

exporter

Ethanol Alcohol

exporter

Distributors

Legal importer /

producer which

is committing

tax evasion

SmugglerDomestic

provider (legal)

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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44

Colombia – Illegal artisanal alcohol value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

In some

cases,

informal

distributors

are used

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Off

Premise

Artisanal

producers

Sugar cane,

corn & fruit

farmers

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

On

Premise

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45

Colombia - Surrogate value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Consumers generally

prepare the surrogate

drink themselves

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46

Ecuador - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Importers

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL

Ethanol

providers

Used

labels/caps

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers

Los Ríos,

Imbabura,

Pichincha,

Guayas

Illegal

counterfeiters(city suburbs)

Distributors

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Bottle

Recyclers

Artisanal

producersBy sea: US,

EU, MX, PA

By land:

PA, CO, PE

Sugar Cane

& Fruit

Farmers

Independent

Wholesalers /

Retailers

On

Premise

Off

Premise

CONSUMPTION

Page 47: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

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47

Ecuador – Contraband value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

ImportersGuayaquil,

Manabí,

Esmeraldas

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers

Los Ríos,

Imbabura,

Pichincha,

Guayas

Illegal

counterfeiters

Artisanal

producers

Ethanol

providers

Used

labels/caps

Bottle

Recyclers

Alcoholic

drinks by

land:

PA, CO, PE

Sugar Cane

& Fruit

Farmers

Distributors

Independent

Wholesalers /

Retailers

Alcoholic

drinks by

sea: US, EU,

MX, PA

CONSUMPTION

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48

Ecuador – Illegal artisanal alcohol value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Sugar Cane & Fruit

Farmers

Bottle Recyclers

Bottle label providers

Oro,

Cotopaxi Distributors

Importers

Artisanal

Producers

Mainly in El

Oro,

Imbabura,

Cotopaxi

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

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49

Ecuador - Surrogate value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Producer of

Surrogate

Drinks

Distributors

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

Page 50: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

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50

El Salvador - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Ethanol

providers /

importer

Used

labels/caps

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers

Illegal

counterfeiters

Distributors

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Bottle

Recyclers

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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51INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGIONAL OVERVIEW | COUNTRY OVERVIEW | APPENDIX

El Salvador - Contraband value chain

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Alcoholic drinks

exporter

Ethanol Alcohol

exporter

DistributorsImporters /

Illegal traders

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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52

El Salvador – Illegal artisanal alcohol value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Distributors

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Importers

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers

Illegal

counterfeiters

Artisanal

producers

Ethanol

providers

Used

labels/caps

Bottle

Recyclers

Sugar Cane

& Fruit

Farmers

Independent

Wholesalers /

Retailers

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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53

El Salvador - Surrogate value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Producer of

pharmacy

alcohol

Distributors

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

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54

Honduras - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Illegal ethanol

providers /

importer (from GT)

Used

labels/caps

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers Distributors

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Bottle

Recyclers

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Legal ethanol

providers/ importer

(from GT)

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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55

XXX%Honduras - Contraband value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Alcoholic drinks

exporter

Ethanol Alcohol

exporter

Distributors

Legal

importer /

producer

which is

committing

tax evasion

Smuggler

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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56

Honduras - Surrogate value chain XXX%

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Producer of

counterfeit

aguardiente

(surrogate =

aguardiente

with

methanol)

Distributors

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

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57

Panama - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Used

labels/caps

Bottling/

Alcoholic

drinks

producers

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Bottle

Recyclers

On

Premise

Ethanol

providers/

importer

“Booze

Swap*”

Distributors

“Bottle Refill

with cheaper

product”

Off

Premise-

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

*Booze swap = consumers order a particular brand, bar tender serves a cheaper version.

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58

Panama - Contraband value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Alcoholic drinks

exporter

Ethanol Alcohol

exporter

Distributors

Legal

importer

which is

committing

tax evasion

Smuggler

Usually in the

Colon Free

Trade Zone

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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59

Panama – Illegal artisanal alcohol value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Distributors

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Off

Premise

Bottling/

Alcohol

manufacturers

Illegal

counterfeiters

Artisanal

producers

Ethanol

providers

Used

labels/caps

Bottle

Recyclers

Sugar Cane

& Fruit

Farmers

On

Premise

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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60

Panama - Surrogate value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Producer of

denatured

alcoholic

drinks

Pharmacy

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

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61

Peru - Counterfeit/illegal value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Producer of

counterfeit

whisky, rum,

beer

(refilled or

combined on

original bottle)

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

Ethanol

providers

Low quality

spirits

Producer of

counterfeit

wines, rum,

vodkas, etc.

Producer of

adulterated

alcohol

Distributors

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Bottles,

cork, labels

suppliers

Flavor,

Dyes,

Suppliers

Grapes

Supplier

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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62

Peru - Contraband value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT / SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Trucks

“Culebrones”

(big volume)

TACNA DUTY

FREE ZONE

IMPORTERS

Foreign

Suppliers

Distributors

Individuals

“Ant

Operation”

(small

volume)

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Page 63: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

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63

Peru – Illegal artisanal alcohol value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

Off

Premise

On

Premise

Sugar Cane

Suppliers

Fruits/Roots

/Herbs

Suppliers

Corn/Yuca

Suppliers

Distributors

Ethanol

Alcohol

Suppliers

Grapes

Suppliers

Barley, Malt

Supplier

Producer of

aguardiente,

cañazo, yonque

Producer of

artisanal wines

and pisco

Producer of

artisanal beer

Producer of

jungle´s

macerated

drinks

Producer of other

artisanal

fermented drinks:

chicha, masato

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

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© Euromonitor International

64

Peru - Surrogate value chain

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

INPUT /SOURCE PRODUCTION / TRADE DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL CONSUMPTION

En

d C

onsu

me

r

On

Premise

Off

Premise

Producer of

surrogate

alcoholic

drinks: street

names

include

“Racumin” or

“Salta pa’

tras”

Distributors

Unfilled = illegal

activity /product not

present if in this color

Color filled = illegal

activity /product present

Source of

Surrogate

Ethanol

Supplier

Page 65: SIZE AND SHAPE OF ILLEGAL ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE ...proyectos.andi.com.co/Documents/PCFPUM/estudio mercadeo...commercial purposes i.e. guarapo, chaparro, chicha, etc. Surrogate Alcohol

© Euromonitor International

65

Glossary of artisanal alcoholic beverages

INTRODUCTION | METHODOLOGY | DEFINITIONS | PREVIOUS STUDIES | KEY TAKEAWAYS | REGION | COUNTRIES | NEXT STEPS | APPENDIX

Country Alcoholic Drink Description

Colombia Chicha Fermented corn or pineapple

Colombia Chirrinche / Miche A type of aguardiente, derived from sugar cane distillation

Colombia Guarapo Derived from sugar cane / brown sugar loaf (Panela) fermentation or distillation

Colombia Viche A type of aguardiente, derived from sugar cane distillation

Colombia Viche (arrechon) A type of aguardiente, derived from sugar cane distillation

Colombia Viche (curada) A type of aguardiente, derived from sugar cane distillation

Ecuador Aguardiente de caña Derived from sugar cane distillation

Ecuador Currincho Derived from sugar cane distillation

Ecuador Guanchaca Derived from sugar cane distillation

Ecuador Pajaro Azul Derived from sugar cane mixed with sweet fruits

Ecuador Puntas Derived from sugar cane, citric fruits, and herbs

Ecuador Puro Natural Derived from sugar cane distillation

Ecuador Trapiche Sugar Mill

Ecuador Chicha Fermented pineapple or yuca

El Salvador Chaparro Derived from sugar cane or corn distillation

El Salvador Chicha Fermented corn or fruit

Honduras Charamila Pharmacy alcohol mixed with water

Honduras Chicha Fermented corn or pineapple

Honduras Guifiti Alcohol soaked in various roots and herbs

Honduras Timoshencko Alcohol made out of coffee

Honduras Vino de Coyol Fermented liquid of coyol trees

Panama Chica Fuerte Fermented corn

Panama Chirrisco Fermented sugar cane

Panama Guarapo de cana Fermented sugar cane

Panama Guisqui de Maiz Fermented corn

Panama Vino de Palma Fermented liquid of certain palm trees

Panama Vino de pina Fermented pineapple skin, water, and brown sugar

Panama Vino de Saril Fermented fruit known as saril, also known as agua de jamaica

Peru Aguardiente de cana Derived from sugar cane

Peru Chicha Fermented corn

Peru Chuchuhuasi Distilled root found in the jungle

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CONTACT DETAILSMike Jozwik

Head of Consulting, Research

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8238

[email protected]

Lourdes Chavarria

Consultant

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8358

[email protected]

Nehna Rauf

Senior Client Consultant

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8325

[email protected]

Jennifer Paruch

Consulting Manager

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8213

[email protected]

Helen Smith

Associate Consultant

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8381

[email protected]

Ivan Franco

Business Development Manager – Consulting

Tel: +1 312-922-1115 x 8989

[email protected]