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Situation Normal, Everything Must Change

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Page 1: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Situation Normal, Everything Must

Change

Page 2: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Simon

Wardley

Page 3: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

ubuntu

Page 4: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

DANGER!Will Robinson

DANGER!

Page 5: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Page 6: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Pain

Page 7: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

No. Slides

Pain

Page 8: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

No. Slides

Pain

OK

20 slides

Page 9: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

No. Slides

Pain

OK

Severerisk of harm

303 slides

Page 11: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Cloud?

Page 12: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud computing?

Page 14: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

It’s like computers on the

internet, innit.

Page 16: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

Page 18: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png

“Online”

Page 19: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

It’s like computers on the

internet, innit.

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

£10,000 please.

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Page 25: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

It’s like SaaS or Software as a Service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s

Platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is

different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re

talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention

infrastructure?

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

ProductCloud =

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

ProfitCloud =

Page 29: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

67 definitions

Page 30: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Cloud?

Page 31: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

No. Slides

Pain

OK

Severerisk of harm

303 slides

Page 32: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

1. On-demand self-service Internet

infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all

managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into

multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and

Cloud Applications.(see "Cloud Pyramid")

Page 33: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

2. Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private

sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time.

Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches.

Definition of Cloud Computing:

Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be

rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models,

and four deployment models.

Essential Characteristics:

On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s

provider.

Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and

PDAs).

Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned

according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to

specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines.

Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for

provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time.

Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing,

bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service.

Service Models:

Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices

through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems,

storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings.

Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools

supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed

applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations.

Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to

deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems,

storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls).

Deployment Models:

Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.

Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance

considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.

Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services.

Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that

enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on

statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.

Page 34: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Point 1Cloud computing is still an evolving

paradigm.

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet.

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“The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our

company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is

betting their companies on”

Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer

Page 37: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

Page 39: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

everybody else is.

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“open up exciting new prospects for the

employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure

fantasy only five year ago”

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“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

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http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png

“Online”

Page 45: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
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+44 years

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Computer Utility Cloud Computing

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Economics

Page 50: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Economics

Page 51: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Page 52: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Benefits & Risks

Page 53: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Myths

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Benefits & Risks

Page 54: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Tell me your secrets!

Page 55: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Ubi

quity

Page 56: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 57: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

Page 58: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

Page 59: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 60: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Commodity

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 61: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Innovation of early lists, 1980.

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 62: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Custom built, DB MarketingMid 80s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 63: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

ProductEarly 90s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 64: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Utility Services of Salesforce

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 65: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 66: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Innovation of Z3, 1941

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 67: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Custom Built LEO, 1946

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 68: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Products IBM 650, 1954

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 69: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Commodity Hardware

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 70: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Utility services of Amazon EC2

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 71: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 72: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 73: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity Utility Services

of the National Grid

Page 74: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

Page 75: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Commod

itisati

on

Page 76: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Page 80: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Demand (user competition)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 84: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Improvement (supply competition)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Demand (user competition)

Page 85: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Commod

itisati

on

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Page 86: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Economics

Page 87: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 88: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 89: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Widespread(Demand)

Feature Complete(Improvement)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 90: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 91: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 92: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 93: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Page 94: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Page 95: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 96: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 97: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Page 98: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is Industrial Revolution?

Page 99: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

It’s like mechanised horses, innit.

Page 100: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

43 definitions

Page 101: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting

in the early 18th century.

Page 102: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

2. Rapid development of industry in the

early 19th century.

Page 103: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

No definition

Page 104: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

+ 200 years

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html

Cloud? Hang on, let’s look at

Google.

Page 106: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Not a thing

Page 107: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Page 109: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Page 110: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Concept

Page 111: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Suitability

Concept

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Suitability

TechnologyConcept

Page 113: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Attitude

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Page 114: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Industrial Revolution

Attitude

Concept

Suitability

Technology

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

ProductIndustrial Revolution

=

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

Cloud Computing

Product=

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Concept

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Concept

Suitability

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Concept

Suitability

Technology?

Page 120: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)

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Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

?

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http://www.strassmann.com/Paul Strassmann

Page 123: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Nick Carr

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Dimini

shing

strate

gic va

lue

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 125: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Page 126: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Payroll

HR Systems

CRM

ERP

Infrastructure

Finance & Accounting

Sales Automation

Page 127: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

PayrollHR

Page 128: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

PayrollHR

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising

stuff has no strategic value?

Page 129: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Gain competitive advantage by customising your

payroll system

Page 130: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Way back when ...

Page 131: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Way back when ...

Now

Page 132: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Standardised Service!

Page 133: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

Page 134: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 135: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 136: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Recap

Page 137: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 138: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Page 139: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Widespread(Demand)

Feature Complete(Improvement)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 140: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Page 141: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 142: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 143: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Benefits & RisksBenefits

Page 144: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity Early Utility

Westinghouse,1890s

Product Hippolyte Pixii,

1830s

Page 145: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Page 146: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Page 147: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Page 148: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Speed (Self Service)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 149: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Page 150: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

newnew

newnew

Page 151: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Creative Destruction

Page 152: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Erodin

g Valu

e

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 153: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Erodin

g Valu

e

EnablesInnovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 154: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

ElectricityInternet

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Hardware

Page 155: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Electricity

Hardware

Internet

Search

Certainty

Ubi

quity

EnableInnovation

Page 156: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 157: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

EnableInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 158: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

Page 159: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

Cloud Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

7

15

Page 160: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Page 161: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Rate of evolution of a system is

dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems.

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Page 162: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Application

Page 163: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework Messaging

Application

Page 164: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 165: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Page 166: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

CPU

Application

Orders of Magnitude

Page 167: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Page 168: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
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Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Page 170: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Standards Matter

Page 171: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

InnovationFlemming Valve, 1904

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 172: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

ProductsIntel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 173: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Busicom

Page 174: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

MCS-4

Busicom

Page 175: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

MCS-4

Busicom

Co-Evolution

Page 176: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

1

Greater consumption

Page 177: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

$700

0.0002c

Reduced cost per unit

Page 178: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

William Stanley Jevons, 1865

“Jevons Paradox”

Technological progress that increases the

efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to

increase the rate of consumption of that

resource.

Page 179: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Speed (Self Service)

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 180: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Page 181: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, price elasticity)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

Page 182: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Benefits & RisksRisks

Page 183: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Disruptive

... as aProduct

Page 184: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 185: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 186: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Governance

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 187: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 188: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Governance

Trust

Security

Confusion

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 189: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Governance

Trust

Security

Confusion

Transparency

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 190: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 191: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 192: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Competition

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 193: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Competition

Lock-in

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 194: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 195: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 196: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Transition

Governance

Trust

Confusion

Transparency

Competition

Lock-in

Second Source

Control

Suitability

Outsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

You have choice!

Page 198: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Market

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 199: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Market

Competitive Gap

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 200: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Market

Speed to market

Economies of scale

Focus on core

Pay per use

Reduced cost

Accelerated innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

You

Page 204: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand

still relative to a surrounding ecosystem

Prof. Van Valen

Page 205: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 206: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

vsBenefits Risks

Page 207: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Marketplace

Page 208: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Private

Marketplace

Page 209: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Hybrid

Page 210: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid

Page 211: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

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Consumer Provider

variety of models

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ubuntu

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Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Standards Matter

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid

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Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu on EC2

(April’09)

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Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloudUbuntu Enterprise

Cloud

(April ’09)

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Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

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Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

EC2 & S3 API

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> 10,000private clouds based on UEC

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We inserted the Ubuntu Server CD, selected Ubuntu

Enterprise Cloud, and drank energy drinks.

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ubuntu.com/cloud

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Recap

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Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 228: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Speed (Self Service)

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Disruptive

Certainty

Ubi

quity

... as aProduct

Page 230: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/21734563@N04/2179722280/

Knitted by Nana’s.

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vsBenefits Risks

Page 233: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid

Page 234: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

EC2 & S3 API

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Myths

What is cloud?

Why now?

Economics

Benefits & Risks

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

You have choice!

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Standards don’t matter

You have choice!

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

It’ll reduce your IT spend.

Cloud is Green.

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Economies of scale(volume operations)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

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Economies of scale(volume operations)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Greater consumption(componentisation, co-evolution, Jevons paradox)

Accelerated Innovation (componentisation)

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efficiency

Page 243: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

consumption

efficiency

Page 244: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

It’s an Innovation

Oh, Yes it is.

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

ProfitInnovation =

Page 247: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Innovation

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Branding

Profit!

Page 248: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

You

Market

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Profit!

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Why are we spending so much on stuff that has no

strategic value?

Profit!

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

All IT is the same!

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IT

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 252: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 253: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Page 254: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Collective Intelligence

Accelerates

Page 255: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

built on ...

provided as ..

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

One size fits all

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 258: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Dynamic

Page 259: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertain

Page 260: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviation

Page 261: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviationDifferential

Page 262: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

DynamicUncertainDeviationDifferentialWorth

Page 263: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 264: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Static

Page 265: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefined

Page 266: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo Deviation

Page 267: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo DeviationStandard

Page 268: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

StaticDefinedNo DeviationStandardCost

Page 269: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

DifferentCharacteristics

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 270: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Innovation of early lists

Custom built, DB Marketing

Utility Services of Salesforce

90’s Early Product

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NoMagic Bullets

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 272: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Agile

Six Sigma

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Six Sigma

Page 274: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Six Sigma

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 275: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Six Sigma

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The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

newnew

newnew

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Agile

Page 278: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Agile

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 279: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Agile

Certainty

Ubi

quity

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Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 281: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Future Wealth

(Survival Tomorrow)

Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 282: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Survival today requires ‘coherence,

coordination and stability’.

Survival tomorrow requires the

replacement of these erstwhile virtues.

Salaman & Storey

Innovation Paradox

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Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

AcceleratedInnovation

Page 284: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
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Summary

Page 286: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 287: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Disruptive

Certainty

Ubi

quity

... as aProduct

Page 288: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Consumer Provider

variety of models

Page 289: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Public cloud

Amazon EC2

Ubuntu Server Edition

Physical (bare bones)

Cloud Controller

Node Controller

KVM Hyp.Web UI

VMEucalyptus

Private cloud

Common Management Tools

Page 290: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

All IT is the same!

SLAs are what count!

Standards don’t matter

It’s about technology

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

Cloud is an Innovation

It’s green!

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Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubi

quity Market

You

Page 292: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Page 293: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

consumption

efficiency

Page 294: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

IT

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 295: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Future Wealth

(Survival Tomorrow)

Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today)

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Page 296: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Page 297: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/

ProfitInnovation =

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Why?

Page 300: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

everybody else is.

Page 302: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

ubuntu.com/cloud@swardley

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Change

Page 304: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

Page 305: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

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Lifecycle

Page 307: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Lifecycle

#

Page 308: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Lifecycle

#

Page 309: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Lifecycle

#

Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Infrastructure

CRM

ERP

Electricity

Page 310: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Lifecycle

#

Outsourcing

Procedural

Predictable

Linear

Page 311: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Lifecycle

#

Collaboration

Emergant

Gamble

Chaotic

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

Outsourcing

Procedural

Predictable

Linear

Page 316: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

One size fits all

Page 317: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

PayrollHR

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising

stuff has no strategic value?

Page 318: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Six Sigma

Page 319: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

AcceleratedInnovation

Page 320: Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

Situation normal, everything must

change