situation and trends in world timber …...production of tropical industrial roundwood (logs)...
TRANSCRIPT
SITUATION AND TRENDS IN WORLD TIMBER TRADE AND THE TROPICAL
TIMBER TRADE IN ASIA-PACIFICAsia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016
Frances Maplesden
Content
Production and trade trends• Primary wood products: logs,
sawnwood, veneer and plywood• Secondary processed wood products
Current market issues and trends
Future market risks and uncertainties
PRODUCTION AND TRADE TRENDSPRIMARY WOOD PRODUCTS
World industrial roundwood (log) production, by species group, 2000-2014
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3
)
Coniferous Temperate hardwood Tropical hardwood
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
Production of tropical industrial roundwood (logs)
Tropical log production, ITTO producer regions
Tropical log production, majorAsia-Pacific producers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3)
Malaysia Indonesia Myanmar Thailand
Viet Nam Philippines India PNG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3
)
Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America/Caribbean
Source: ITTO Statistics Database Source: ITTO Statistics Database
MAJOR TRADE FLOWS: TROPICAL LOGS, 2015
Sources: Global Trade Atlas, COMTRADE. Note: Major directions of trade for 2015 except Malaysia and Vietnam trade flows as recorded for 2014.
Major exporters of tropical logs
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Vo
lum
e (
10
00
m3)
Malaysia Papua New Guinea Myanmar
Congo Cameroon Mozambique
Rest of world (ITTO)
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
Major importers of tropical logs
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000V
olu
me
(1
00
0 m
3)
China India Viet NamTaiwan POC Republic of Korea JapanThailand Rest of world (ITTO)
Sources: ITTO Statistics Database, COMTRADE
China and India: Imports of tropical logs, 2000-2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Vo
lum
e (
1,0
00
m3)
Malaysia Myanmar PNG
China: Tropical log imports India: Tropical log imports
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Vo
lum
e (
10
00
m3)
Malaysia Myanmar Lao PDR
PNG Solomon Is.
Sources: World Trade Atlas, ITTO Statistics Database, COMTRADE. Data for 2014/2015 converted from weights to volumes.
Sources: World Trade Atlas, ITTO Statistics Database. Data for 2015 estimated from YTD November data.
China imports of “rosewood” logs, 2005-2015
Source: World Trade AtlasNote: “Rosewood” log figures include all imports classified in HS code 44039930, which include a number of species within the genera Dalbergia, Pterocarpus, Millettia, Cassius and Diospyrus.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Val
ue
(U
S m
illio
ns)
Laos Nigeria
Myanmar India
Gambia DRC
Mozambique Togo
Guinea-Bissau Ghana
Benin Malaysia
Vietnam Rest of world
Production of tropical sawnwood, by region and major Asia-Pacific producers, 2000-2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3)
Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America/Caribbean
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3)
Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Viet Nam
India China Myanmar
Sources: ITTO Statistics Database, ABIMCI
MAJOR TRADE FLOWS: TROPICAL SAWNWOOD, 2013
Sources: ITTO Statistics Database, COMTRADE.
Tropical sawnwood exports, major ITTO countries 1994-2014
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000V
olu
me
(1
00
0 m
3)
Malaysia Thailand Indonesia
Cameroon Philippines Brazil
Peru Gabon Rest of world (ITTO)
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
Tropical sawnwood imports, major ITTO countries 1994-2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000V
olu
me
(1
00
0 m
3)
China Thailand USA
Viet Nam Belgium Taiwan POC
Netherlands Rest of world (ITTO)
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
Tropical sawnwood: Major Asia-Pacific trade, 2014, by value (US$ millions)
ImportersExporters
China Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Philippines Japan Taiwan POC
Thailand 1017 - 6 - - -
Malaysia 146 128 8 8 70 62
Indonesia 232 - 3 6 18 5
Philippines 90 - - 17 -6 --
Viet Nam 97 - - - 3 19
Myanmar 42 7 - 17 - - 3
Laos 244 35 425 - - - 5
Cambodia - - 250 - - - -
Sources: COMTRADE; World Trade AtlasNote: Figures as reported by importing country
Tropical sawnwood trade, major Asia-Pacific countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Vo
lum
e (
1,0
00
m3)
Thailand China Philippines
Singapore Taiwan Yemen
UAE Japan Netherlands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Val
ue
(U
S$ m
illio
ns)
Thailand Gabon Indonesia
Laos Malaysia Cameroon
Vietnam
Malaysia: Exports of tropical sawnwood
China: Imports of tropical sawnwood
Source: ITTO Statistics Database; COMTRADE Source: ITTO Statistics Database; COMTRADE
Production of tropical veneer and plywood, major countries, 2000-2014
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Vo
lum
e (
1,0
00
m3)
Indonesia Malaysia PhilippinesThailand Viet Nam AfricaLA/Caribbean China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Vo
lum
e (
mill
ion
m3)
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines
China Brazil India
Tropical veneer production Tropical plywood production
Source: ITTO Statistics DatabaseSource: ITTO Statistics Database
MAJOR TRADE FLOWS: TROPICAL PLYWOOD, 2013
Sources: ITTO Statistics Database, COMTRADE.
Major exporters of tropical plywood
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Vo
lum
e (
10
00
m3)
Indonesia Malaysia China Viet Nam Rest of world (ITTO)
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
Major importers of tropical plywood
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000V
olu
me
(1
00
0 m
3)
Japan Republic of Korea USA
Taiwan POC United Kingdom China
Rest of world (ITTO)
Source: ITTO Statistics Database
PRODUCTION AND TRADE TRENDSSECONDARY PROCESSED WOOD PRODUCTS
Major importers of secondary processed wood products
0
5
10
15
20
25
Va
lue
($
US
billio
n),
2
01
3
Mouldings Other SPWPs
Builders' woodwork Wood furniture
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Va
lue
($
US
billio
n)
EU27 USA Japan Canada Rest of world
Source: ITTO Statistics Database Source: ITTO Statistics Database
USA: Imports of wooden furniture and parts, 2000-2015
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Va
lue
(U
S$
millio
n)
Rest of world China Vietnam Canada Mexico Malaysia Italy Indonesia
Source: World Trade Atlas
Top 10 exporters of wooden furniture and parts, 2014
Rank Country Value US$ mill.
Rank Country ValueUS$ mill.
1 China 21 288 6 USA 2 077
2 Italy 6 120 7 Malaysia 1 997
3 Germany 5 355 8 Denmark 1 439
4 Poland 5 251 9 Canada 1 311
5 Viet Nam 5 155 10 Indonesia 1 271
Source: COMTRADENote: Figures as reported by exporting country except Vietnam. Vietnam exports are the sum of imports from Vietnam as recorded by importing countries.
Secondary processed wood products exports, major Southeast Asian producers
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Val
ue
(U
S$ m
illio
n)
Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Thailand
Sources: COMTRADE; ITTO Statistics Database
China: Exports of wooden furniture and parts 2000-2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Val
ue
(U
S$ m
illio
ns)
USA EU27 Middle East-15Singapore Japan UKAustralia Saudi Arabia South Korea
Source: World Trade Atlas
MARKET ISSUES
Building and construction indicators
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Ho
usi
ng
star
ts (
1,0
00
un
its)
Starts Single family Multi family
Source: US Bureau of the Census
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Bu
ildin
g p
erm
its
ind
ex, 2
01
0=1
00
EU total Germany Ireland
Spain France Italy
Netherlands UK
Source: Eurostat
US Housing Starts, 1980-2015 EU Building Permits Index, Selected EU countries, 2004-2014
Exchange rate indices, selected Asia-Pacific countries, January 2005-November 2015
Source: IMF. National currency per US dollar.
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Ind
ex (
Jan
uar
y 2
01
0=1
00
)
China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand
Other Market Issues
Tropical hardwood supplyReduction in availability and quality of traditional
speciesPlantation development focused on fibre in Asia-
Pacific
Changing demographics; rising domestic consumption in emerging markets, tropical producer countries
Residual impacts of the global financial and economic crisis
General economic slowdown in 2015 in emerging economies; modest recovery in advanced economies
Other Market Issues
Relative market competitiveness of competing wood and non-wood products
Design trends and consumer preferences
Product innovation and building trends
Lower energy prices
Legal timber legislation in consumer countries
Preferential trade agreements; China-ASEAN, TPP, non-tariff trade measures
MARKET RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Market risks and uncertainties
China economic growth and demand levels
Contagion effects of China downturn on Asia-Pacific wood products trade
Impact of TPP, if ratified, on Asia-Pacific wood products trade
Climate change; effectiveness of policies
Elimination of illegally logged wood from supply chains in major tropical wood processing countries.
