sit isp final 2014

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US- Russian Relations: A New Cold War?

By: Charles Fellows

Fall 2014

School for International Training: Multilateral Diplomacy and International Studies Academic Director: Gyula Csurgai

University of Colorado at Boulder International Affairs

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Abstract:

This paper is devoted to looking into the current relations between the United

States and Russia, and working to see whether or not this current relationship will lead to

a New Cold War. This paper will do so by looking closely and analyzing different factors

in the relationship, as well as different international trends, and geopolitics. The Ukraine

situation is an important aspect of this relationship moving forward and understanding the

state of affairs between the two sides, as well as Ukraine, can help look into an outcome

and what will come of it. The current energy dependence between Russia and Europe

will also play a major role in this paper, in that with tension rising, how will that affect

the energy market for Europe, Russia, and outside actors. Then looking into a

transnational issue with Radicalized Islam throughout the Middle East, Russia, and the

world forms an interesting situation, one where cooperation is needed. Finally the

international system is transitioning from a hegemonic system to a multipolar system, and

many actors such as China are starting to have large impacts on relations such as the

United States and Russian relationship. With these, the final part of this paper will dive

into two scenarios, one that has a high probability of occurring, and the other low

probability but has a high impact. Through this analysis and scenario building this paper

will answer the question of are the United States and Russia headed into a New Cold War

era?

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Preface:

At the University of Colorado at Boulder I study International Affairs and

Russian. The Relations between the United States and Russia interests me, and it

fascinates me how their relationship has changed over the past 80 years. With this, it led

me to my topic in that while the past and current relationship between the two intrigues

me, the future does so even more. That led to the analysis of the current events relating

to the United States and Russia, as well as a scenario building section for the future.

Acknowledgements:

I would like to first of all thank my family for all the opportunities that they give

me. Without them I would not be in this situation, and wouldn’t have the great life that I

live. I would also like to thank the people and friends I have met during my time abroad

here in Switzerland. Finally I would like to thank the entire faculty at SIT Geneva

including Aline Dunant, Dr. Gyula Csurgai, and Dr. Oksana Myshlovska, you all were a

huge help preparing and advising my project.

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Table of Contents:

Introduction……………………………….....................................................................4 Literature Review………………………………………………………………6 Research Methodology…………………………………………………………7 Framework……………………………………………………………………...8 Research and Analysis………………………………………………………………….9 Understanding Ukraine…………………………………………………………10 Geopolitical Significance of Ukraine…………………………………..11 Western Expansion……………………………………………………..12 Hard Power and Aggression During Conflict…………………………..14 Economic Ties: Energy and Beyond……………………………………...…….16 European Perspective…………………………………………………...17 Russian Perspective……………………………………………………..19 Common Threat: Radicalized Islam…………………………………………….22 Terrorism in Russia……………………………………………………...23 Radicalized Islam and the United States………………………………...24 Multipolar Effort to a Transnational Threat……………………………..25 China and an Emerging Multipolar System……………………………………..26 Scenario Building 2035………………………………………………...………………..28 Scenario 1: Cooperation and Isolation…………………………………………..29 Scenario 2: Low Probability High Impact………………………………….........32 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….34 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………..36

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Introduction

After the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, United States of America

has become the hegemonic power of the world, and Russia has been thrown into

rebuilding mode. Former Soviet states were given their independence and the whole

region was searching for their own identities. Today, more than 20 years after the

collapse of the Soviet Union, we see relations between the United States and the Russian

Federation to be up in the air again. Similar geopolitical ambitions between the United

States and the increasingly powerful Vladimir Putin and the rest of the Russian

Federation, has led to conflict, sanctions, and overall poor relations. The event that

triggered this tension was the annexation of Crimea, and the overall conflict in Ukraine.

The conflict has shed light on the issue at hand and has many wondering where the two

are headed. However, there are many aspects of this situation and relationship between

the two countries, which are different from the Cold War, and that could help avoid

falling into another era of hostility. Looking into different aspects of these relations can

help foresee what the future has in store. The situation in Ukraine is a very sensitive

matter; in understanding both sides of the crisis one can hope for a positive outcome.

Another useful situation between the two is the economic correlation. Russia’s energy

monopoly in Europe has made for a strong connection between the European and Russian

economies. Europe depends on Russia for energy, while Russia depends on Europe for

the income from the energy market. Beyond energy, the rise of Radicalized Islam in the

Middle East has posed a serious threat to both the United States and Russia.

Organizations such as al-Qaeda and ISIS have projected a serious threat to Western

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interests and security. Russia fits into this in that the southern territories of the country

are predominately Muslim. With recent uprisings in the region, along with the rise of

Radical Islam throughout the world, Russia and the United States have a common threat.

Another aspect of this relationship is the re emergence of China and a multi-polar

international system as a whole. With China being a major rising geopolitical power in

Asia, Russia will be given a difficult decision, on whether to increase and strengthen

relations with the United States and the West, or with China. After the Cold War the

international system went from being in a bipolar system to a unipolar system with the

United States being the world hegemon. Today, a major shift seems to be arising, with

the emergence of multiple powerful actors throughout the world, and the international

system becoming multipolar. Looking at the Ukraine situation, an increasing importance

on energy markets, the rise of radicalized Islam, and a multi-polar international system,

brings into question: Are the United States and Russia are headed into a New Cold War

era?

Literature Review

Since Spring 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea, there has been some talk about

whether or not the United States and Russia are headed into a New Cold War. A few

scholars have attempted to discuss this topic and given their opinions on what the future

holds. Robert Vegvold wrote an article in Foreign Affairs titled Managing the New Cold

War. In this article he says that due to the conflict in Ukraine, the United States and

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Russia seem to be heading into a New Cold War. He blames the fact that both the West 1

and Russia have made things more difficult on their selves by shooting down negotiations

and possible agreements on the issue of Ukraine. He also concludes that if the conflict in 2

Ukraine does not end, or weaken, that this conflict will move to other areas and create

multiple conflicts between the two, looking very similar to the Cold War. Finally he says 3

that continued aggression by the US with NATO in building missile defense systems,

along with Russia’s eagerness to control its sphere of influence will lead to a situation

which seems like a New Cold War. Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro at the Brookings 4

Institute also weigh in on this topic in How to Avoid a New Cold War, however they have

a different outlook on the situation. They write that there will not be another Cold War,

mainly because of the difference between the Soviet Union and Russia, saying that

Russia is not the Soviet Union. They also believe that reaching a deal between the US 5

and West, and Russia is possible. The deal consists of the US stopping EU and NATO

expansion into Russia’s sphere of influence, in return for Russia to stop military

intervention in these countries. These two articles and reports on the idea of a New Cold 6

Legvold, Robert. "Managing the New Cold War." Global. N.p., July 2014. Web. Nov. 1

2014.

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Shapiro, Jeremy, and Samuel Charap. "How to Avoid a New Cold War." The Brookings 5

Institution. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 Nov. 2014.

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http://www.brookings.edu/experts/shapiroj

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War are interesting and both have their merit, but my analysis and conclusions will be

different from both.

Research Methodology:

The methodology used in order to answer this question comes from a lot of

different areas. Using sources of many different kinds was key to gain as many possible

perspectives, in order to help provide an answer. The main method of research will be

through face-to-face interviews with experts in the fields of international security,

geopolitics, US-Russian relations, international relations, and more. This will provide a

fantastic collection of primary sources. These primary sources will offer the opportunity

to analyze the topic, and be able to provide a unique view. Along with the primary

sources, secondary sources will play a large role in the research. These secondary

sources will help shed light on the extra details of situations and conflicts related to the

question. They also show the different perspectives on the topics and how different

people from different backgrounds view the matter. It is important to use both qualitative

and quantitative methods of research, in order to see multiple angles of research relating

to the question at hand. The qualitative aspect adds the personal and reactionary aspect,

while the quantitative aspect supports the actions with solid facts and numbers. Ethical

considerations are not a major issue with this topic of research. The research needed to

answer the question does not involve any sensitive interviewees or obtaining sensitive

materials. One aspect that relates is the matter of recording interviews for primary

sources. Depending on the interview, if there is a need to record the conversation, getting

permission from the interviewee will be obtained.

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Framework:

The framework of this study will be to research and analyze different aspects of

the current and future relationship between the United States and Russia in order to

answer the questions of if another Cold War is plausible, and whether or not we will see a

new Cold War era. First the research and analysis of topics and conflicts such as

Ukraine, economic dependence, energy, terrorism, culture, and emerging geopolitics, will

all play a major role in this research and analysis. After that then this study will build

two scenarios and perspectives taking into consideration the analysis of the topics listed

above.

Research and Analysis

The research and analysis section will research and analyze certain topics in order

to form perspectives and scenarios to answer the research question of whether or not the

United States and Russia are headed into another Cold War. Sections of research and

analysis include the Ukraine conflict, the economic aspect of the relationship, joint

terrorism issues, and the re emergence of China and other actors as major geopolitical

players. Before looking at the current issue at hand, briefly looking at the past, and the

history of the Cold War is necessary. The Cold War was an ideological war and arms race

between the United States of America and the Soviet Union from roughly 1945-1990.

The Soviet Union comprised of modern day Russia, and many other countries such as

Ukraine, the Baltic States, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and many more in between these

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areas. Ideologically, the Soviet Union was Communist, while the United States were

Capitalist, as they still are today. The nuclear arms race we know as the Cold War was

driven by the extreme bi-polar international system with the United States and the Soviet

Union sharing the power of the world. This bipolar system and the different ideologies

lead to conflict between the two countries.

Understanding Ukraine

Once Ukraine became an independent state following the fall of the Soviet Union,

it has remained a strong geopolitical target for both the West and Russia. At the

beginning of 2014 Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea. The annexation

was a geostrategic move by Russia aimed at trying to halt the West from furthering their

move into Eastern Europe. Prior to the conflict in Ukraine this year, Ukraine was in

negotiations with the European Union to help facilitate trade between the two markets.

Russia saw this move as a direct threat to their security, culture, and geopolitical strategy

in the region. Russia has created a sphere of influence within the former Soviet states,

Ukraine being the most important. Ukraine is a key buffer zone between NATO (North

Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the European Union, and Russia, and for the West to

have an increasing influence in the country would be a major hit to Russia’s foreign

policy and geostrategic motives. This was an essential driving force behind Russia’s

invasion of eastern Ukraine, and the current hard power being used by both Russia and

the United States. Russia armed rebels in the eastern part of the country, and created a

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strong military presence along the Russian- Ukrainian border. The United States in

response applied serious economic sanctions against Russia. The battle over Ukraine

stems from many different aspects, but the geopolitical significance, Western expansion,

and hard power used by both the United States, and Russia have led to a conflict in

Ukraine, which needs to be resolved.

Geopolitical Significance of Ukraine

Ukraine has a vast amount of geopolitical significance for both Russia and the

West. From the Russian standpoint, losing Ukraine would lead to a greater internal

battle, in that “without Ukraine Russia ceases to be a European empire. Russia without

Ukraine can still strive for imperial status, but it would then become a predominately

Asian imperial state. ” However, Russia has always been culturally more aligned with 7

Europe, which makes Ukraine so important. Having cultural influence throughout

Ukraine for Russia is key in order to keep the buffer zone between itself and the West.

Also, from a military standpoint for Russia, having control over the Black Sea is vital.

Crimea is home to a massive and essential military base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and

the Black Sea Fleets contribution to Russian power projection in the Black Sea,

Mediterranean, and entire world is a vital piece to Russia’s navy, and overall military

Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic 7

Imperatives. New York, NY: Basic, 1997. Print.

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capabilities. Finally Ukraine has large amounts of natural resources, and Russia controls 8

an energy monopoly over the region, and throughout Europe. “Russia's natural resources

ministry has estimated Crimea's energy reserves as 165.3 billion cubic meters of gas

and 44 million tons of oil. ” This abundance of natural resource possibilities would add 9

to the important energy industry in Russia, and giving them even more of a competitive

advantage in the energy market throughout Europe.

Western Expansion

The spread of Western ideology and influence eastward throughout Europe has

played a large role in the conflict in Ukraine today, and overall relations between the

West and Russia. Russia has tried to create itself a buffer zone between itself and the

West, but with an increasing move into Eastern Europe, these Western organizations have

threatened this prized buffer zone. The European Union was attempting at forming an

association agreement with Ukraine prior to the conflict. This agreement had multiple

aspects to it. Its goal was to achieve

“A close and lasting relationship that is based on common values, namely respect

for democratic principles, the rule of law, good governance, human rights and

fundamental freedoms, including the rights of persons belonging to national

minorities, non-discrimination of persons belonging to minorities and respect for

Schwartz, Paul. "Crimea's Strategic Value to Russia." Center for Strategic and 8

International Studies. N.p., 18 Mar. 2014. Web.

"FACTBOX: The Costs and Benefits of Russia's Annexation of Crimea | Business." The 9

Moscow Times. N.p., 8 Apr. 2014. Web. 25 Apr. 2014.

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diversity, human dignity and commitment to the principles of a free market

economy, which would facilitate the participation of Ukraine in European

policies. 10

Paul Ivan says, “The European Union has been negotiating an association agreement with

Ukraine which has a very strong trade component, this was the EU’s offer that Ukraine

agreed to. ” This proposed agreement between the two would have seriously 11

strengthened relations between the West and Ukraine, something that Russia could not

afford. John Mearsheimer writes, “This past February, before Yanukovych was forced

from office, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the EU of trying to create a

“sphere of influence” in Eastern Europe. In the eyes of Russian leaders, EU expansion is

a stalking horse for NATO expansion. ” If the agreement between Ukraine and the EU 12

happened, the opportunity for NATO to expand into the region seemed likely. To Russia,

having Ukraine becoming a member of NATO would be a grave threat to Russia from a

security standpoint. Paul Ivan goes says that Russia interpreted these relations differently

in that to Russia, it meant it had lost power in Ukraine, and Ukraine would become a

European Union. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement Preamble. European Union, n.d. 10

Web.

Ivan, Paul. "Future of Western Relations with Russia." Personal interview. 23 Sept. 11

2014

Mearsheimer, John. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault." Foreign Affairs. N.p., 12

Oct. 2014. Web. 29 Oct. 2014.

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member of the EU and NATO . This issue is at the forefront of the conflict currently 13

going on in Ukraine today. Paul Schwartz from the Center for Strategic and International

Studies writes, “He also may well believe that the West will hesitate to incorporate

Ukraine while it is deeply embroiled in a territorial dispute with Russia over Crimea.

These are all elements of the playbook that Putin used in Georgia and elsewhere in the

CIS to counter past efforts at NATO and EU expansion. ” The West views Russia’s 14

seemingly deliberate geostrategic moves to stop NATO and the EU from expanding as a

critical component of why relations between the two are deteriorating so quickly.

Another aspect of Western expansion eastward is the Russian minority in eastern

European Countries. Dr. Alexandre Lambert says, “Russia let countries such as the Baltic

States enter the West, but they need to take care of the Russian minority. ” With states 15

such as the Baltic States, the European Union promised to care for the Russian minorities,

but so far have yet to do so. Nearly 20% of the population in Ukraine is ethnically 16

Russian, therefore, Russia has a lot invested in the population and has a strong


2014.

Schwartz, Paul. "Crimea's Strategic Value to Russia." Center for Strategic and 14

International Studies. N.p., 18 Mar. 2014. Web.

Lambert, Alexandre, Dr. "US- Russian Relations for the Future." Personal interview. 31 15

Oct. 2014.

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connection. Since there are so many ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, and the 17

Ukrainians and Russians are historically tied, Western expansion into Ukraine was a

direct strike to Russia, from Russia’s point of view.

Hard Power and Aggression During the Conflict

The conflict in Ukraine has brought out hard power strategies by both the United

States and Russia. Hard power was used in order to achieve policy matters from both

ends. From the Russian perspective, the annexation of Crimea, and militarization in

eastern Ukraine was the best use of force to the conflict. On the other hand the United

States and the West used economic sanctions as a reactionary force toward Russia’s move

in Crimea and Ukraine.

Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has been using aggressive hard power

tactics in order to achieve its goals. The annexation of Crimea was a violation of

sovereignty, and Russia’s activities in eastern Ukraine seem to be breaking international

law as well. Paul Ivan says, “We have seen increased militarization, we saw flights

entering airspace of other countries that they border in Sweden, Finland, Baltic states,

also a case a few days ago on the American side in Alaska. ” This aggression by Russia 18

has substantially jeopardized the West’s trust moving forward with hopes of solving the

"Ukraine Demographics Profile 2014." Ukraine Demographics Profile 2014. N.p., n.d. 17

Web. 04 Nov. 2014.


2014

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conflict at hand. It is no surprise for Russia to use military force in this sort of situation,

since in 2008 Russia invaded Georgia to halt further escalations between the former

Soviet territory, and the West. Russia’s intent to keep this sphere of influence from the

West seems to be strong, as we have seen in both Ukraine and Georgia.

The United States reacted to Russia’s actions with economic sanctions. These

sanctions were intended at deterring Russia from further aggression in the region. The

major sanctions dealt out by the West on September 12th 2014 were directed at Russia’s

financial, energy, and arms industry . While the sanctions were not quite as forceful, 19

they were a reaction, which led to even greater hostility between the two over Ukraine.

Taking into consideration the conflict as a whole, there needs to be some sort of

resolution towards a peaceful Ukraine. The country is divided, in that the people in the

Western part of the country would prefer to align with the EU, NATO and the West, but

the people of the East have a strong tie to Russian interests. Relations between the 20

United States and the rest of the West with Russia do not have to be hostile; the two can

work together to build a strong, independent Ukraine. Using Ukraine as a buffer for both

the West and Russia would be mutually beneficial. If the West and Russia worked 21

"How Far Do EU-US Sanctions on Russia Go?" BBC News. N.p., n.d. Web. 02 Nov. 19

2014.

Lambert, Alexandre, Dr. "US- Russian Relations for the Future." Personal interview. 31 20

Oct. 2014.

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together to build a decentralized sovereign state of Ukraine, both sides would win. The 22

regions of the country that would like to benefit from Western organizations such as the

European Union may very well do so, while regions that want to align with Russian

interests may do so as well. This would calm the geopolitical rivalry between the two, by

mutually benefitting. The European Union would be able to negotiate trade agreements

with Ukraine, and Russia would still have a sphere of influence, buffer zone, and access

to geopolitical necessities in and around the Black Sea.

Economic Ties: Energy and Beyond

With today’s growing population and need for energy, the countries with large

amounts of natural gas, oil, and coal are profiting profoundly. As the world is becoming

more globalized and multipolar, these countries have been able to export their energy to

countries in need. Leon Aron writes, “With the world’s largest proven reserves of natural

gas, Russia is also the top producer of natural gas, accounting for about 20 percent of the

world’s total. ” Europe is heavily relied on Russia for their supply of natural gas. For 23

example, when looking at countries in the European Union who import natural gas from

Russia, with regards to the total amount of natural gas imports, Poland imports 79% of its

natural gas from Russia, Germany imports 36%, and the Baltic states import 100% of

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Aron, Leon. "The Political Economy of Russian Oil and Gas." AEI. N.p., 29 May 2014. 23

Web.

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their natural gas from Russia. From a Russian standpoint, Europe as a consumer of 24

their energy leads to a large supply of the countries income and gross domestic product.

With the current situation in Ukraine between the West and Russia, lots of European

countries foreign policy decisions toward Russia are shaped by this dependence on

Russia’s supply of natural gas. The United States on the other hand has a self-sufficient

natural gas supply, one that has the ability contribute to a decrease in Europe’s reliance on

Russian natural gas and overall energy supply. Russia has in turn looked to form an

energy deal with China, which would supply China with Russian natural gas from the

eastern part of the country.

Europe’s Perspective

From the European point of view, Russia’s energy supply, mainly natural gas

supply, is a key issue when looking at relations between the two. Countries in Eastern

Europe such as the Baltic States, Poland, and more, rely almost completely on Russia for

their natural gas supply. Where as countries in the Western part of Europe still rely on 25

Russian natural gas, but not as heavily as countries in the East. But in total, countries in

the European Union’s “gas consumption reached 541 Bcm in 2013, which 161.5 Bcm, or

Bawden, Tim. "Fear over Russian Gas Switch-off Sees EU States Stockpile 24

Supplies." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, 11 Sept. 2014. Web.



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30% were supplied by Gazprom. ” Gazprom is Russia’s natural gas giant, which has 26

been at the forefront of supplying natural gas to Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Europe has an issue on their hands as “EU members rely on external sources for 88

percent of their crude oil and 66 percent of their natural gas consumption ”, much of 27

which is from Russia.

Since the current conflict with Russia in Ukraine, this energy dependency has left

the European Union in a difficult position when it comes to their foreign policy. Richard

Weitz writes, “EU governments fear that this situation deprives them of bargaining

leverage while making them vulnerable to external supply shocks and political blackmail.

For example, Europeans' dependence on Russian energy supplies makes them reluctant to

challenge Moscow's policies on Ukraine by supporting energy sanctions. ” Since some 28

countries in the Union are more heavily reliable on Russian energy than others, it shapes

each countries interests differently. For example, since Germany gets close to 40 percent

of its natural gas from Russia, it is going to have a different geopolitical agenda towards

things such as the Ukrainian conflict than say the United Kingdom. John Mearsheimer 29

"Russian Gas Imports to Europe and Security of Supply- Factsheet." Clingendael 26

International Energy Programme, n.d. Web.

Weitz, Richard. “EU Seeks Energy Security Solutions To Russian Gas Challenge.” 27

World Politics Review (Selective Content) (2014): 1. Academic Search Premier. Web.

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writes, “Harsh sanctions are likely off the table anyway; western European countries,

especially Germany, have resisted imposing them for fear that Russia might retaliate and

cause serious economic damage within the EU.” Germany has a different relationship 30

with Russia than the rest of Europe, in that the two are more economically connected than

any of Western Europe. Germany plays an interesting role, while the eastern part of

Europe depends on Russian energy, they are also in an area where they are vulnerable to

Russian aggression. Where as more of Western Europe is less dependent on Russian

energy, and do not have any threat to their surrounding area. Germany is far enough

away from Russian aggression, and has a considerable high economic and energy

relationship with Russia, therefore putting them in an interesting position, one that could

easily lead to closer economic ties between the European Union and Russia.

Russian Perspective

While Europe has been the consumer in these energy dealings, Russia is the

supplier of its natural resources such as natural gas and oil. Russia is sitting on a serious

amount of natural resources, most prominently fossil fuels such as natural gas, oil, and

coal. Thomas White International reports that, “Russia has the world’s largest natural

resources, the second largest coal reserves, and eighth largest oil reserves. ” Adding to 31

Mearsheimer, John. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault." Foreign Affairs. N.p., 30

Oct. 2014. Web. 29 Oct. 2014.

"Russia Oil and Natural Gas | Energy Sector in Russia | BRIC Report on Russia Energy 31

Industry." Thomas White International. N.p., Jan. 2011. Web.

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that, not only do they have the eighth largest oil reserves, but also in September 2009

Russia passed Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. The world we live in 32

today, fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas are essential. Thomas White International

also reports that in 2011 65% of the countries exports were oil and natural gas, and that

30% of the countries gross domestic product (GDP) was directly from the oil and natural

gas industry. Russia’s reliance on their oil and natural gas sales is evident in these 33

numbers, and Europe’s portion of these energy sales is critical to maintaining the Russian

economy.

Russia has been looking to expand its sales of these essential fossil fuels outside

of the European continent, and into Asia, especially to China. Behind the United States

and the European Union, China has the third largest GDP in the world amounting to over

10 trillion US dollars. China also has the world’s largest population with close to 1.4 34

billion people, which gives Russia a large market for their energy sales. Following the 35

geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe between the West and Russia, Russia has been

actively seeking a natural gas deal with China. Richard Weitz writes,

With the Historic May 21st agreement, the China National Petroleum Corporation

(CNPC), the countries largest integrated energy company, and Russian energy

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"World GDP Ranking 2014 | Data and Charts - Knoema.com." Knoema. N.p., n.d. Web. 34

"Population of China 2014." World Population Statistics. N.p., n.d. Web. 35

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giant Gazprom, which controls Russia’s export gas pipelines, finally signed a

thirty-year $400 billion deal that will see as much as thirty-eight billion cubic

meters (bcm) of Russian gas to China annually from 2018 to 2047. 36

This monumental deals goal is to make Russia less dependent on Europe’s economy, and

their consumption of Russian energy. Russia sees the opportunity to not only expand

their sale of gas in thriving markets such as in China, but it also will bring in more

income that the energy industry in Russia desperately needs. Europe’s need for gas is still

a vital piece of the Russian industry, but as Yan Vaslavski said in an interview with the

New York Times, “Russia has no intention of diminishing gas shipments to Europe,

integrally important for the Russian economy as they are. Instead, the China deals are

insurance. ” Even though Russia does still need Europe’s market for gas, Russia has not 37

been hiding the fact that they are looking throughout Asia as their next key market for

important geopolitical and economic gains. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a

speech at the St. Petersburg International Forum where he said, “We have to admit that

energy consumption in Europe is growing slowly due to low economic growth rates,

while political and regulatory risks are increasing, given these circumstances, our desire

to open up new markets is natural and understandable. ” Russia’s new gas deals with 38

Weitz, Richard. “The Russia-China Gas Deal.” World Affairs 177.3 (2014): 80-86. 36

Academic Search Premier. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

Kramer, Andrew E. "Gazprom Makes a New Gas Deal With China." The New York 37

Times. The New York Times, 10 Nov. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

Weitz, Richard. “The Russia-China Gas Deal.” World Affairs 177.3 (2014): 80-86. 38


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China, and their aspirations to move into other Asian markets directly shows their

strategy to distance themselves from the European market.

The current state of relations between the United States and Europe, with Russia,

has lead both sides in search for new options and strategies with regards to their energy

sectors. Europe’s strong dependence on Russian gas has limited their effectiveness in

terms of the Ukraine situation, and the European Unions Neighborhood policy in a

greater sense. Russia has responded to the recent tensions by looking in other places to

sell their abundance of natural gas. Russia’s new gas deal with China is a fundamental

step towards less dependence on the European market. Even though Russia has made

moves to sell gas to Asia, they are still heavily involved in selling gas to Europe, as they

have large amounts of pipelines and infrastructure invested in the region. Not to mention

that Europe is still their highest consumer of natural gas, ahead of China tremendously.

Common Threat: Radicalized Islam

As the world becomes more globalized, so do the security threats nations face.

Today there is a concern over radicalized Islam throughout the Middle East, and all over

the world. The United States and other Western countries face imminent threats from

groups such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, and more. Currently there is a serious concern about the

group ISIS also called The Islamic State, which is a Sunni Muslim organization operating

in Syria and Iraq. They pose a serious threat to the US and the West in that fighters from

these regions have been travelling to the Middle East to fight for ISIS, and the threat of

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them returning to carry out attacks is grave. Radicalized Islam is not just a problem to

the United States and other Western countries, but also to Russia. Russia has high

Muslim population in the southern regions of the countries, predominately in the

Caucasus regions of Chechnya, and Dagestan. Russia has dealt with many terror

problems from these regions, as the head of Russia’s top law enforcement agency said

that, “the North Caucasus region remains a hotbed of terrorism and external enemies

destabilize the area. ” Radicalized Islam posses a transnational security threat to both 39

the United States and Russia, with the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East, and

growing Muslim populations and extremists in Southern Russia.

Terrorism in Russia

Since the end of the Cold War, there have been vast amounts of violence in

Russia’s Northern Caucasus region. Robert Crews writes, “In the last two years alone,

violence in this vast mountainous region, including car bombings, assassinations, and

clashes between Muslim fighters and Russian security forces, has killed or injured more

than 1,500 people. ” The North Caucasus Federal District is comprised of 6 non-ethnic 40

Russian majority republics including, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia,

"Russia Hit by 31 Terror Attacks in 2013 â€“ Chief Investigator." RT Russian Politics. 39

RT, 27 Feb. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

Crews, Robert D. “Moscow And The Mosque.” Foreign Affairs 93.2 (2014): 125-134 40


! 25

Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia. This regions high Muslim population 41

has lead to ideological differences between the Russian Federation and the inhabitants of

the Northern Caucasus, enough to create terrorism aimed against the Russian Federation.

With this area consisting of high Muslim populations and terrorism, the new threat of

ISIS or the Islamic State concerns Russia. Russia’s high Sunni Muslim population along

with the spread of radicalized Islam into the southern regions of Russia has made ISIS a

serious threat. Recently the Islamic State has released a video promising to wage war on

Russia’s Northern Caucasus region. The video is addressed towards Russian President 42

Vladimir Putin, “Your throne has already been shaken, it is under threat and will fall with

our arrival [in Russia]. … We're already on our way with the will of Allah! ” The video 43

also mentions the Northern Caucasus regions, “We will with the consent of Allah free

Chechnya and all of the Caucasus! The Islamic State is here and will stay here, and it will

spread with the grace of Allah! ” Not only does Russia have an issue with the fact that 44

the leadership of ISIS is directly threatening Russia, but Russia faces another threat in

that Russian citizens from these regions such as Chechnya, Dagestan, and the rest of the

Northern Caucasus, are going to Syria and Iraq to fight, and the possibility of them

Laub, Zachary. "Background Briefing: Why Is Russia's North Caucasus Region 41

Unstable?" PBS. PBS, 7 Feb. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

Quinn, Allsion. "Islamic State to Putin: We Are on Our Way to Russia | News." The 42

Moscow Times. N.p., 3 Sept. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

IBID.43

IBID.44

! 26

returning to bring the fight home is frightening. As the Islamic State increases its 45

influence in the Middle East and the surrounding regions, Russia will have to work to

stop its influence and power into their southern regions. The combination of the

Northern Caucasus high Muslim population, growing terrorism, and the Islamic State, the

threat of radicalized Islam will be a major issue in the future of the Russian Federation.

Radicalized Islam and the United States

While the United States doesn’t have trouble with Islamic republics in its country,

it does have a problem with the rise of the Islamic State in the Middle East. For the past

25 years or so, the United States has dealt with the rise of radicalized Islam in the Middle

East. In 2001, al-Qaeda attacked the United States in New York, Washington D.C., and

Pennsylvania. Since then, the rapid growth of the phenomenon has created a serious

threat to the United States, and its citizens. Today groups all over the Middle East, and

the world, have shared their hatred for the United States, and vowed to destroy it. Most

recently, ISIS has flourished and is the newest threat on the West’s radar. The

Congressional Digest writes, ‘In September 2014, National Counterterrorism Center

Director Matthew Olsen stated that the group poses ‘a direct and significant threat to us

— and to Iraqi and Syrian civilians — in the region and potentially to us here at

Goodarzi, Jubin, Dr. "US-Russian Relations: Joint Issue of Radicalized Islam." 45

Personal interview. 11 Nov. 2014.

! 27

home.’ ” US officials have clearly noticed the threat of ISIS, but the issue is still present. 46

Like Russia, the United States and Europe also have had citizens’ travel to Syria and Iraq

in order to help fight for the Islamic State. Krista Wong reports that, “Lee (Democrat,

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (Texas)) said as many as 12,000 foreign fighters have gone to

Syria to fight with ISIS, including over a thousand from Europe who would be eligible to

travel back to the U.S. without a visa. ” Having a thousand foreign fighters with 47

Western passports is an imminent threat to the United States and the West, one that will

need a serious joint force and effort to destroy.

Multi-Polar Effort to a Transnational Threat

Seeing that both Russia and the United States indirectly have a common threat,

there is room for some sort of joint effort against the spread of radicalized Islam. Allison

Quinn reports, “On Tuesday, prior to the video's release, Russia's Foreign Ministry

condemned the group's "horrific crimes" in an official statement, calling for China

and Western countries to join forces in helping bring an end to the group's reign

of terror. ” With Muslim populations in southern Russia increasing, the influence of 48

ISIS to Muslims in Russia’s North Caucasus region is seen to the Russian government as

“Islamic State Situation And The U.S. Response.” Congressional Digest 93.9 (2014): 46

2-30. Academic Search Premier. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

Wong, Kristina. "'Several Hundred' Americans Might Be in ISIS, Republican 47

Warns." TheHill. N.p., 10 Sept. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

Quinn, Allsion. "Islamic State to Putin: We Are on Our Way to Russia | News." The 48

Moscow Times. N.p., 3 Sept. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

! 28

a serious danger. This danger is also seen by the United States, in that ISIS has publicly

announced its hatred for and war on the United States. As beheadings of Westerners

continue, and ISIS furthers its influence into areas such as the Northern Caucasus region

of Russia, there will need to be cooperation in order to defeat this transnational threat.

The idea is feasible in that after 9/11 Vladimir Putin wanted to create a joint anti

terrorism alliance with the United States, while it never happened, Russia was still open

to the thought of such an alliance. Living in a globalized world, and an international 49

system that will soon be multi-polar, countries such as the United States, Russia, and

others threatened by ISIS and other radicalized Islamic groups will need to work together

in order to contain the issue, and stop it from causing any further terror.

China and an Emerging Multi-Polar International System

During the Cold War there was a bi-polar international system. The international

system today is much different, in that we are in a transition zone between a uni-polar/

hegemonic system with the United States, and are heading for a multi-polar system as

countries such as China, Brazil, India, Russia, and many more are becoming an

increasing influence on geopolitical interests. This makes for a different relationship

between the United States and Russia, one that cannot become like the Cold War, because

of an emerging multipolar system, one that includes multiple actors who affect the way

both the United States and Russia make decisions.

Jovanovic, Goran, Dr. "US- Russian Relations for the Future." Personal interview. 11 49

Nov. 2014.

! 29

In today’s world countries such as China have re-emerged to make a serious

difference. Like we saw with the energy situation with Russia, and Europe, China too

has become a serious geopolitical participant, one that has the world’s highest population,

and third largest economic market. Russia and China have economies where one could

benefit from the other. China has lots of mass consumption products, which Russia

needs, where as Russia has higher technological products, which China needs, making it

an easy merge. With this re-emergence of such an actor, Russia and the United States 50

have both strived for partnership and alliances with China. Since Russia and China’s gas

deal, Russia has been craving further ties with the country. Remi Piet writes, “It also

shows how eager Putin was to seal a long term alliance with the Asian giant that will very

quickly challenge the US influence in the region and beyond. ” Russia would be very 51

interested in an alliance with China, one that is rival to the United States. Peter Wilson,

among others, writes, “That caution will also be reinforced if this Russia-China entente

has both the internal resources and access to much of the global economy required to

develop and acquire advanced military technology comparable to that of the United

States and its allies in the European Union, Japan and India. ” The current state of the 52


Nov. 2014.

Piet, Remi. "Russia-China Energy Deal: Geopolitical Tectonic Shift." - Opinion. N.p., 51

n.d. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

Wilson, Peter A., Lowell Schwartz, and Howard J. Shatz. “Eurasian Invasion.” 52

National Interest 95 (2008): 43-50. Academic Search Premier. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

! 30

Russian geostrategy internationally seems to be moving towards China; this move would

have the ability to, in the eyes of the Russians, challenge the dominate United States

force internationally.

An important factor in Russia China relations getting stronger is China’s dealings

with the United States, specifically the interdependence on each other’s economies. Dr.

Goran Jovanovic said that, “China wont support Russia against the United States, because

China needs the US market. ” The Chinese and US markets have become very strong in 53

the 21st century, and in 2012 bilateral trade between the two countries was worth $536

billion. This ever so strong economic relationship between China and the United States 54

is quite important, so important that it shapes China’s outlook on foreign affairs,

especially further relations with Russia.

Scenario Building: 2035

Taking into account the complicated and changing relationship between the

United States and Russia, it is necessary to build possible scenarios we could see take

place, in order to work towards what the future holds. Due to the complex history

between the two in the past 80 years, these scenarios will be built off of contemporary

matters and relations. Two scenarios will be built. The first scenario will consist of a


Nov. 2014.

Fortin, Jacey, and Michelle FlorCruz. "For China And US Economies, A Time For 54

Peace: What's Really On The Table For Obama And Xi." International Business Times. N.p., 7 June 2013. Web.

! 31

future illustration taking into consideration the current relations and world today, in other

words, a highly probable scenario. The second scenario is a low probability scenario

caused by a high impact event occurring, more of an outside the box thinking scenario. 55

These scenarios will consist of the analysis above, and be able to develop different views

and perspectives on US-Russian Relations in the year 2035.

Scenario 1: Cooperation and Isolation

In 2035 the landscape of the international system will be changing, but Russia’s

role in that change will not be the strong militarized aggressive power. For many reasons

Russia seems to be leading a path to stand alone, or mostly alone. Russia does have its

few reliable allies in Belarus and Kazakhstan who are following Russia’s lead and

working to form a Eurasian Economic Union. But Russia’s old sphere of influence 56

seems to be falling at the seams as the European Union and NATO will expand into this

buffer zone. Russia will realize that it is geopolitically smarter and beneficial for them to

be cooperative with the United States and the West, in terms of their energy sector, and

growing issue of terrorism. China will continue its economic dealings over gas and other

energy supplies with Russia, but that is all, China will not form any sort of military

alliance with Russia.


Nov. 2014.

Vitkine, Benoît. "Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union Gets Ready to Take on 56

the World." The Guardian. N.p., 28 Oct. 2014. Web.

! 32

Today countries such as Ukraine and Georgia, who have until recently been in

Russia’s sphere of influence are trying to form association and free trade agreements with

the European Union. While Russia has retaliated in both instances, the push for 57

agreements between the two will reappear. In 2035 many more of the countries in this

region will see the relations between former Soviet states such as Ukraine and Georgia

with the EU and NATO, and look to forming relations of their own. Countries such as

Azerbaijan, and Moldova could look to this avenue of EU and NATO membership, or

agreements more intensively. This push towards Western alliances by these countries

will certainly squash Russia’s attempt at forming a strong competitor to the European

Union with the Eurasian Economic Union. Russia’s dependence on selling natural gas,

among other natural resources, to Europe will still bind Russia to the region, and Russia

will have to be cooperative not to lose the European market, while they search for other

energy options. While the EU furthers its influence and reign throughout Russia’s sphere

of influence, Russia will continue to work with Europe for economic needs and funds

from the sale of natural gas.

Russia will also look to the United States for a coalition force against Radicalized

Islamic groups such as ISIS, or others like them in 2035. As the Muslim population in

Russia will have increased by 2035, the North Caucasus region will only strengthen, as

its majority Muslim population will look to become independent from the Russian

Federation. Terrorism in 2035 will be a essential issue for both the Untied States and


2014

! 33

Russia, and in order for Russia to fight the influence and terrorism at home, and the

United States to fight the problem abroad, and protecting its interests, working together,

among others, will be the way to fight the problem.

In 2035 China will be an immense actor in the international system. While today

we see Russia and China working together to form agreements such as the gas deal,

which was just put into place, relations between the two will not go any further than the

economic aspect. Leading up to 2035, Russia will want to form a further alliance with

China, one that includes a military aspect. But China’s re emergence has not been based

on geopolitical battles, and it is certainly not interested in one with the United States. 58

China’s rise has been through using soft power and doing it peacefully. On the other 59

hand Russia’s geostrategy in the past 10 years has consisted heavily on hard power.

Therefore, China will continue to have its economic dealings with Russia, including gas

and other natural resources, but due to difference of geopolitical intentions and

geostrategy, China will not involve itself with a military alliance with Russia by 2030.

This scenario takes into account the current relations between multiple actors, and

their interests now and how that will shape interaction in 2035. As EU and NATO

continue expanding their influence into Russia’s sphere of influence, former Soviet

countries will create agreements with the West, as opposed to joining Russia’s Eurasian

Economic Union. Russia and the United States will be able to cooperate on issues such

as transnational terrorism, in order to defeat the issue. China’s ability to rise peacefully


Nov. 2014.

IBID.59

! 34

and become an economic super power will be more in line with the countries interests,

instead of forming a military alliance with Russia against the United States and the West.

With the way the international system seems to be flowing, Russia will become less

hostile due to the fact that they will become isolated, and positive relations with the

United States would be mutually beneficial.

Scenario 2: Low Probability, High Impact

Being that Russia is located in an awkward geopolitical area in the world, it has

seemed to be caught in between the power of the West, backed by the United States, and

the rising power of China to the east. So far China has risen peacefully and used soft

power to do so. But with increasing changes to the country, and factors such as 60

population and need for resources, that might very well change, and China could very

well become aggressive. By 2035 China could very well have close to 1.5 billion people

living in its country, and land will become a serious concern. China and Russia share a 61

border in Russia’s far east, and China’s northeast, Peter Zeihan writes, “Only 7.4 million

Russians populate the entire Russian Far East, versus more than 70 million in northeast

China. ” The part of Russia’s far east just north of Chinese Manchuria has seen a vast 62


Nov. 2014.

http://populationpyramid.net/china/2035/ 61

Zeihan, Peter. "Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese." ABC News. ABC News 62

Network, 14 July 2014. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

http://populationpyramid.net/china/2035/

! 35

increase of ethnic Chinese entering the area. Not only are the Chinese entering the area, 63

but also native Russian are slowly leaving the area and making it even more unpopulated

with ethnic Russians. By 2035 the area will be vastly populated by ethnic and native 64

Chinese.

The Russian Far East is also loaded with scores of natural resources and valuable

land to the Chinese. Peter Zeihan writes, “The region is rich in natural resources such as

oil, gas and timber. It is easier to send these goods to Asia instead of shipping them 3,000

miles to Moscow. The size of the Russian work force is shrinking, as the country grows

older. China’s young — and growing — population is more than able to fill the gap and

exploit these resources. ” Russia has a decreasing population, and as modern technology 65

and globalization have made people move from rural areas to cities, Russians will slowly

de populate the eastern part of their country, almost leaving it wide open for the Chinese,

who could use the land for many geopolitical gains. The need for natural resources in

this area such as oil, and natural gas will be crucial for China in 2035, due to their

massive population, and modernization. Controlling natural resources in this area would

also make China less dependent on outside suppliers of fossil fuels.

In 2035 the Chinese-Russian border in Russia’s far east, and China’s northeast

will become a hot spot, and vulnerability for Russia. Twenty years from now China very

IBID.63

Washburn, Taylor. "Between Russia and China, a Demographic Time Bomb." The 64

National Interest. N.p., 23 Aug. 2013. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

Zeihan, Peter. "Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese." ABC News. ABC News 65

Network, 14 July 2014. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

! 36

well could invade this part of Russia to taken advantage of a large amount of land for a

substantial population, as well as for the natural resources and geostrategic gains. If the

Chinese were to become aggressive and make this move, it could lead to Russia falling

back, and looking to the West for help and power to fight China and the east. This 66

scenario in 2035 would cause a serious shake in the international community, causing

alliances to be rethought and leaving Russia in a vulnerable, weak position. Russia

would resort to looking west for friends, and possibly even hoping to form an alliance

with NATO in order to protect its further interests against China. But NATO joining

forces with Russia to fight a powerful Chinese in the east seems unlikely for many

reasons, but this scenario would have Russia and the United States, and the rest of the

West, on cooperative relations, because of an aggressive, powerful China.

Conclusion

After looking into many different aspects of the contemporary US-Russian

relationship, finding an answer to the original question is much clearer. Using different

events, geopolitical interests, and perspectives created a platform to forecast whether or

not there will be this New Cold War. Fist the analysis of the Ukraine situation shed light

on many different aspects. The combination of geopolitical interests, Western expansion,

and hard power led to the conflict. But looking at it positively there seems to be a

solution of a decentralized Ukraine that serves both the West and Russia their interests.


Nov. 2014.

! 37

The energy aspect between Europe and Russia plays a major role as well. Europe lagged

behind the United States on sanctions towards Russia during the Ukraine Crisis, mostly

due to the strong dependence on Russia’s natural gas supply. Russia on the other hand

gets a large portion of its GDP from these energy sales to Europe, in turn making this

dependent relationship important. Transnational terrorism sets the stage for future

cooperation between the United States and Russia as well, in that they both have a serious

threat to their national securities. The Islamic State’s threat to both Russia and the United

States has both countries worried, and joint action to this issue could be the solution.

Finally with the world turning into a multipolar system, it is hard to see relations between

to US and Russia fall back into a bipolar Cold War. Actors such as China have already

been making a huge difference in terms of US-Russian relations with regards the

economies and trade with both. Due this atmosphere in both the international system,

and US-Russian relations, while relations between the two could be tense, the United

States and Russia are not headed into a New Cold War, but a continued geopolitical

rivalry will control the way the United States and Russia view each other. While this

geopolitical rivalry will shape relations between the two in the future, the United States

and Russia will still cooperate on issues such as Ukraine, economics, and terrorism, in

order to solve transnational issues in the upcoming multipolar international system.

! 38

Bibliography

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Bawden, Tim. "Fear over Russian Gas Switch-off Sees EU States Stockpile Supplies." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, 11 Sept. 2014. Web.

Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York, NY: Basic, 1997. Print.

Crews, Robert D. “Moscow And The Mosque.” Foreign Affairs 93.2 (2014): 125-134 Academic Search Premier. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

European Union. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement Preamble. European Union, n.d. Web.

"FACTBOX: The Costs and Benefits of Russia's Annexation of Crimea | Business." The Moscow Times. N.p., 8 Apr. 2014. Web. 25 Apr. 2014.

Fortin, Jacey, and Michelle FlorCruz. "For China And US Economies, A Time For Peace: What's Really On The Table For Obama And Xi." International Business Times. N.p., 7 June 2013. Web.

Goodarzi, Jubin, Dr. "US-Russian Relations: Joint Issue of Radicalized Islam." Personal Interview. 11 Nov. 2014.

“Islamic State Situation And The U.S. Response.” Congressional Digest 93.9 (2014): 2- 30. Academic Search Premier. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.


Jovanovic, Goran, Dr. "US- Russian Relations for the Future." Personal interview. 11 Nov. 2014.

Kramer, Andrew E. "Gazprom Makes a New Gas Deal With China." The New York Times. The New York Times, 10 Nov. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

Lambert, Alexandre, Dr. "US- Russian Relations for the Future." Personal interview. 31 Oct. 2014.

Laub, Zachary. "Background Briefing: Why Is Russia's North Caucasus Region

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Unstable?" PBS. PBS, 7 Feb. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

Legvold, Robert. "Managing the New Cold War." Global. N.p., July 2014. Web. Nov. 2014.

Mearsheimer, John. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault." Foreign Affairs. N.p., Oct. 2014. Web. 29 Oct. 2014.

Piet, Remi. "Russia-China Energy Deal: Geopolitical Tectonic Shift." - Opinion. N.p., n.d. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

"Population of China 2014." World Population Statistics. N.p., n.d. Web.

Quinn, Allsion. "Islamic State to Putin: We Are on Our Way to Russia | News." The Moscow Times. N.p., 3 Sept. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

"Russian Gas Imports to Europe and Security of Supply- Factsheet." Clingendael International Energy Programme, n.d. Web.

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27 Feb. 2014. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

"Russia Oil and Natural Gas | Energy Sector in Russia | BRIC Report on Russia Energy Industry." Thomas White International. N.p., Jan. 2011. Web.

Schwartz, Paul. "Crimea's Strategic Value to Russia." Center for Strategic and International Studies. N.p., 18 Mar. 2014. Web.

Shapiro, Jeremy, and Samuel Charap. "How to Avoid a New Cold War." The Brookings Institution. N.p., n.d. Web. 19 Nov. 2014.

"Ukraine Demographics Profile 2014." Ukraine Demographics Profile 2014. N.p., n.d. Web. 04 Nov. 2014.

Vitkine, Benoît. "Vladimir Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union Gets Ready to Take on the World." The Guardian. N.p., 28 Oct. 2014. Web.

Washburn, Taylor. "Between Russia and China, a Demographic Time Bomb." The ‘ National Interest. N.p., 23 Aug. 2013. Web. 18 Nov. 2014.

Weitz, Richard. “EU Seeks Energy Security Solutions To Russian Gas Challenge.” World Politics Review (Selective Content) (2014): 1. Academic Search Premier. Web.

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Weitz, Richard. “The Russia-China Gas Deal.” World Affairs 177.3 (2014): 80-86. Academic Search Premier. Web. 12 Nov. 2014.

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Wong, Kristina. "'Several Hundred' Americans Might Be in ISIS, Republican Warns." TheHill. N.p., 10 Sept. 2014. Web. 17 Nov. 2014.

"World GDP Ranking 2014 | Data and Charts - Knoema.com." Knoema. N.p., n.d. Web.

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Work Journal and Interactive Log

Chronology of ISP Research (PLACE)

September 1st 2014: First ISP proposal due (SIT OFFICE) • Talked with Dr. Csurgai on US-Russian relations topic

September 23rd 2014: Met with Paul Ivan at the European Policy Centre • Discussed Ukraine crisis and the EU involvement

October 8th 2014: Final ISP proposal due (SIT OFFICE)

October 20th 2014: ISP period begins (SIT OFFICE) • Group session

October 23rd 2014: Started intensive research (UNITED NATIONS LIBRARY) • Ukraine • EU/NATO expansion

October 24th 2014: Further research into Ukraine (STARBUCKS CAFÉ)

October 27th 2014: Researched Russian energy sector and EU dependence (NYON)

October 28th 2014: Met with Dr. Csurgai to discuss topic and paper (SIT OFFICE) • Helped further direction of analysis

October 30th 2014: Researched into Russian relations with China (NYON)

October 31st 2014: Interview with Dr. Alexandre Lambert (SIT OFFICE) • Discusses a New Cold War • Russian perspective

November 2nd 2014: Discussed ISP topic over Skype with my Father (NYON)

November 3rd 2014: Had multiple interviews

! 42

• Dr. Goran Jovanovic o Discussed New Cold War theory o China o Geopolitics o Scenario building

• Dr. Jubin Goodarzi o Discusses the Middle East o Terrorism in Russia o ISIS o Syria and Iran

November 4th 2014: Started Introduction and did more research on Terrorism (NYON) November 5th 2014: Multiple (UN LIBRARY)

• Researched Scenario building • Researched multipolar international system

November 10th 2014: Finished Introduction and started typing Research and Analysis section. (NYON)

November 11th 2014: Typed Research and Analysis section (NYON)

November 12th 2014: Typed Research and Analysis section (NYON)

November 13th 2014: Worked on literary review and typed Research and Analysis section. (NYON)

November 17th 2014: Finished Research and Analysis section and typed Scenario section. (MIGROS CAFÉ)

November 18th 2014: Finished Scenario building section, and edited paper. (NYON)

November 19th 2014: Final edits and printed and bound project (NYON) (SIT) • Due Date: Project turned in

Interview Questions and Write-Ups

Interview 1: Paul Ivan

Interview Questions

1. How do you see relations between the West (United States, NATO, and European Union specifically) and Russia in the near future? Do you see relations becoming more hostile, or more tolerant?

! 43

2. Why do you think Russia won’t accept both a Western and Russian presence in Ukraine? How has a EU/NATO expansion lead to this conflict?

3. How do other Eastern European and ex Soviet states view the Ukrainian conflict? 4. Do you see this conflict moving to other “buffer countries” in the region in the

future? 5. Do you see European Union powers such as the United Kingdom and Germany

becoming less dependent on Russian energy? 6. Who would you say has a stronger influence in Ukraine today, the West or

Russia? 7. Russia is scared of its “buffer zone” between it and the West from being intruded

by an expanding European Union and NATO, do you see the Western influence eventually moving further east into Russia?

a. Follow up question: Or will Russia and the Russian people deny increasing Western influence?

Write up: I met Mr. Ivan at the European Policy Centre in Brussels, Belgium. The topic of the Interview was to discuss the conflict in Ukraine. He was a very useful source being that he is a EU Neighborhood Policy and Defense expert. This interview gave me lots of solid information and perspective on the issue.

Interview 2: Dr. Alexandre Lambert

Interview Questions

1. Do you think it is possible for Ukraine to become an intermediary between Russia and the US?

2. Do you think the Ukraine conflict has destroyed possible relations between the US and Russia?

3. How has the West interfered on Russia’s spheres of influence? 4. How do you see China contributing to US-Russian relations? 5. Is Russia more European or Asian to you?

Write up: I met Dr. Lambert at the SIT office in Geneva. He was very helpful to both get a European point of view on the US/Russian relations, but also a ethnically Russians point of view. Dr. Lambert was very knowledgeable on the current state of Russia and their interests and intentions. It helped tremendously with that aspect of my research.

Interview 3: Dr. Goran Jovanovic

Interview Questions

1. Do you see Russia as more of a European or Asian country? 2. Do you think Russia could separate itself form the West and move towards China?

! 44

3. What is the United States perfect situation? 4. Do you see Russian-US relations headed for a new Cold War? 5. What are some good strategies for scenario building?

Write up: I met Dr. Jovanovic at the SIT office in Geneva. Dr. Jovanovic was very helpful in opening many different outlooks to my topics. He talked about China to an extent of the US-Russian relations that I had not known, and he provided lots of key information and ideas on this topic. He also gave me a great platform and advice on scenario building for my project.

Interview 4: Dr. Jubin Goodarzi

Interview Questions:

1. How does ISIS pose a threat to both the US and Russia? 2. Do you think the Caucasus region in Russia will become more involved in

terrorism? 3. How does the Middle East play into US-Russian relations

a. Iran, Syria

Write up: I met with Dr. Goodarzi at Webster University right outside of Geneva. Being that Dr. Goodarzi is a expert in the Middle East, his insight on the current ISIS crisis, and how it poses a threat to both the US and Russia. He also gave me a good overview of Syria and US-Russian relations on that topic.

Interactive Log/ Human Resource List

Interviewee Date Place Profession Expertise Topic

Paul Ivan September 23rd 2014

European Policy Centre

Political Analyst for European Policy Centre

Ukraine, EU Neighborhood Policy, EU Security and Defense

2014 Conflict in Ukraine

! 45

Contact Information

Paul Ivan: Email- [email protected]

Dr. Lambert: Email- [email protected]

Dr. Jovanovic: Email- [email protected]

Dr. Goodarzi: Email- [email protected]

Dr. Alexandre Lambert

October 31st 2014

SIT Office Academic Director for SIT Global Health Program

Expert on Russia and European Politics

Russian perspective on EU/NATO expansion, and future of US-Russia relations

Dr. Goran Jovanovic

November 11th 2014

SIT Office Professor at International University in Geneva

European Politics and Scenario Building

New Cold War? Multi-polar international system, and Scenario building

Dr. Jubin Goodarzi

November 11th 2014

Webster University

Professor at Webster University

Middle East Islamic terrorism in the Middle East, and Caucasus regions, Iran

mailto:[email protected]




sit isp final 2014

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