singularity university nasa, california, usa the ... · the growth of the economy-50% 0% 50% 100%...
TRANSCRIPT
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José Luis Cordeiro, PhD
(www.cordeiro.org)
Singularity University
NASA, California, USA
The Millennium Project
IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan
The Future of the Future
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
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The Millennium Project
Global futurist think-tank with over 50
nodes around the world
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15 Global Challenges
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The growth of the economy
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th
The Maltushian Trap
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Development is faster and faster
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
UK: 1780-1838
USA: 1839-1886
Japan: 1885-1919
Italy: 1890-1911
Spain: 1950-1968
South Korea: 1978-1987
China: 1987-1994
Years to Double Income per Capita
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Evolución demográfica: millon. hab.(Histórico y proyecciones: 1800-2050)
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Evolución económica: PIBc US$ PPP(Histórico y proyecciones: 1800-2030)
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Japan: from bad products to top quality in one generation
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¿Qué es el futuro?
• ¡El futuro ya no es
lo que era antes!
Mafalda
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3D
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From manufacturing to mindfacturing
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We need to add value
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•Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future
•Reactive (fire fighter) Respond
•Preactive (insurer) Prepare
•Proactive (builder) Create
Attitudes towards the future
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Singularity University
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Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com
• Bill Gates
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Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near
• www.singularity.com
• Bill Gates
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Stress & Opportunity
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Sequencing the genome: cost and time
Year Cost (US$) Time
2003 1,000,000.000 13 years
2007 100,000,000 4 years
2008 1,000,000 2 months
2010 10,000 4 weeks
2015 1,000 5 days
2020 100 1 hour
2025 10 1 min
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Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro
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The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke
• First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
• Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
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Technologies of the “past”
• 30 years ago
Personal computers
• 20 years ago
Cell phones
• 10 years ago
• What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?
Immortal (ageless) cells!
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Aging as a disease? And curable?
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Life extension results: today, now!
x 3 times
x 4 times
x 6 times
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Physical Immortality: Death of Death
1. Germinal cells (good)
2. Cancer cells (bad)
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Sábado
4 de mayo
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NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)
National Science Foundation
Department of Commerce
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Neurons
Cogno
NBIC
Bio
Info
Cells
Technological Convergence NBIC
Nano
Bits
Atoms
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1. Nano (NBIC)
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Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov
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2. Bio (NBIC)
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The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)
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De-extinction
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Dolly: the clone
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Singapore: Biopolis
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Russia: cloning???
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Synthetic biology is born• Variola virus (smallpox)
Genes: 197
Base pairs: 185,000
• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)
Genes: 485
Base pairs: 580,000
• Homo sapiens sapiens
Genes: ~25,000
Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000
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3. Info (NBIC)
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BMW forecasts
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77
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IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy! February 14-16, 2011
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4. Cogno (NBIC)
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The brain:the final frontier!
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Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp
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• 1 brain
• 1011 neurones
• 1014 synapsis
• 1017 computations
(per second)
• And the mind?
• And the spirit?
• And the soul?
What is a brain?
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Robots in Japan and Korea
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Asimo (Honda) evolution
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Robots are good in Japan
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Humans or machines!
Humans AND machines?
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Oscar Pistorius: “Blade runner” in London 2012 Olympic Games
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Football World Cup in Brazil: 2014
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Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations
www.TransHumanismo.org
Are humans trans-monkeys?
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Transhumanism, yes...but carefully
Homo sapiens sapiens
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Superman?
ChristopherReeve
(paraplegic)
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Stephen Hawking
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Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future
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Ronald Reagan:Alzheimer’s
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Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)
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Light up the world
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Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)
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Muito obrigado!José Luis Cordeiro (www.cordeiro.org)