single tenant leased investment 10755 folsom …€¦ · lic 1447530 tenant overview 10755 folsom...
TRANSCRIPT
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
S I N G L E T E N A N T L E A S E D I N V E S T M E N T
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector+1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
FOLSOM BLVD
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
TENANT Big 5 Sporting Goods
SYMBOL BGFV
LEASE TYPE NNN
ROOF STRUCTURE Landlord Responsibility
HVAC Tenant Responsibility
INSURANCES Tenant Responsibility
CAM & PARKING Tenant Responsibility
UTILITIES Tenant Responsibility
PROPERTY TAXES Tenant Responsibility/Pays Directly
ANNUAL BASE RENT $181,682
ANNUAL RENT/SF $16.52
1ST OPTION COMMENCEMENT March 1, 2018
LEASE EXPIRATION February 28, 2023
LEASE START March 1, 2003
LEASE TERM 15 years with four 5 years options
TERM REMAINING ON LEASE 5.5 years
RENEWAL OPTIONS Three - 5 year options remaining
INCREASES 2nd option term (2023) $219,835/year
3rd option term (2028) $241,818/year
4th option term (2033) $266,000/year
TENANT Big 5 Sporting Goods
LEASE TYPE NNN
TERM REMAINING 5.5 Years
PRICE $3,160,000
PSF $300
CAP RATE 5.75%
NOI $181,682
ADDRESS 10755 Folsom Blvd.
APN 057-0294-006
BUILDING 11,000 RSF
PARCEL 40,511 (0.93 AC)
YEAR BUILT 2002
CONSTRUCTION TYPE Wood / Stucco
DESCRIPTION Free standing single tenant retail
ZONING Commercial Mixed Used (CMU)
PARKING 54 Parking space (4.9/1,000 SF)
SPRINKLERS Yes
ROOF Tar & Gravel
VEHICLE COUNT (ADT) Folsom Blvd / Zinfandle Drive: 26,121
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L E A S E S U M M A R YO F F E R I N G
P R O P E R T Y S U M M A R Y
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
P A R C E L M A P
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
T E N A N T O V E R V I E W
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
FOLSOM BLVD
FOLSOM BLVD
SAC-RT
Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation (NASDAQ:BGFV) is the leading sporting goods retailer in western United States, operating 433 stores in 11 states as of the fiscal quarter ended July 2, 2017. Big 5 provides a full-line product offering at compelling values including athletic shoes, apparel and accessories, as well as a broad selection of athletic equipment for team sports, fitness, camping, hunting, fishing, tennis, golf, winter and summer recreation and roller sports.
2017 Second Quarter Highlights- Reports Same Store Sales Increase of 0.8%- Achieves Second Quarter Earnings per Diluted Share of $0.13- Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend of $0.15 per Share
For the fiscal 2017 second quarter, net sales were $243.7 million compared to net sales of $241.4 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2016. Same store sales increased 0.8% 7, reflecting continued market share gains. Gross profit for second quarter was $79.3 million, compared to $76.3 million in the second quarter of the prior year. The Company’s gross profit margin was 32.5% in the fiscal 2017 second quarter versus 31.6% in the second quarter of the prior year, reflecting an increase in merchandise margins of 37 basis points and a decrease in distribution expense resulting from higher costs capitalized into inventory.
Net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2017 was $2.8 million, or $0.13 per diluted share, compared to net income for the second quarter of fiscal 2016 of $2.1 million, or $0.10 per diluted share.
B I G 5 C O R P R A T E O V E R V I E WTYPE 10755 Folsom Blvd.
SYMBOL NASDAQ: BGFV
INDUSTRY 057-0294-006
LOCATIONS 433
EMPLOYEES ±9,000
CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS El Sequndo, CA
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
ATM
FOLSOM BLVDFOLSOM BLVD
OLSON DRIVE
LINCOLN HWYLINCOLN HWY
OLSON DRIVE
ZINFA
NDEL D
RIVE
ZINFA
NDEL D
RIVE
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
FOLSOM BLVD
OLSON DRIVE
ZINFANDEL DRIVE
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
FOLSOM BLVD
ZINFA
NDEL D
RIVE
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
Sacramento is the capital city of the U.S. state of California and the seat of Sacramento County. It is at the confluence of the Sacramento River and the American River in the northern portion of California's expansive Central Valley, known as the Sacramento Val-ley. Its estimated 2016 population of 493,025 makes it the sixth-largest city in California, the fastest-growing big city in the state, and the 35th largest city in the United States. Sacramento is the cultural and economic core of the Sacramento metropolitan area, which includes seven counties with a 2010 population of 2,414,783. Its metropolitan area is the fourth largest in California after the Greater Los Angeles area, the San Francisco Bay Area, and the San Diego metropolitan area, and is the 27th largest in the United States. In 2002, the Civil Rights Project at Harvard University conducted for Time magazine named Sacramento "America's Most Diverse City".
Sacramento became a city through the efforts of the Swiss immigrant John Sutter, Sr., his son John Augustus Sutter, Jr., and James W. Marshall. Sacramento grew quickly thanks to the protection Sutter's Fort, which
was established by Sutter. During the California Gold Rush, Sacramento was a major distribution point, a commercial and agricultural center, and a terminus for wagon trains, stagecoaches, riverboats, the telegraph, the Pony Express, and the First Transcontinental Railroad.
The city was named after the Sacramento River, which forms its western border. The river was named by Spanish cavalry officer Gabriel Moraga for the Santísimo Sacramento (Blessed Sacrament), referring to the Catholic Eucharist.
Today, the city is known for its diversity, tree canopy (largest in the U.S.), historic Old Sacramento, evolving contemporary culture as the most "hipster city" in California, sunny climate, state administration, and farm-to-fork dining. California State University, Sacramento, is the largest uni-versity in the city and a designated "Tree City USA" campus. University of the Pacific is a private university with one of its three campuses, the McGeorge School of Law, in Sacramento. The University of California, Davis, located in nearby UC Davis Medical Center.
S A C R A M E N T O
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
Rancho Cordova is a city in Sacramento County, California, United States which incorporated in 2003. It is part of the Sacramento Metropolitan Area. The population was 64,776 at the 2010 census. Rancho Cordova is the Sacramento area's largest employment sub-center, attracting over 50,000 commuters. The city is served by Sacramento Regional Transit's various bus lines and the Gold Line light rail line, though fewer than 0.1 percent of commuters to Rancho Cordova use the line according to the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey. In 2010 Rancho Cordova was named as a winner of the All-America City Award.
Today, the city is known for its diversity, tree canopy (largest in the U.S.),historic Old Sacramento, evolving contemporary culture as the most "hipster city" in California,sunny climate, state administration, and farm-to-fork dining. California State University, Sacramento, is the largest university in the city and a designated "Tree City USA" campus. University of the Pacific is a private university with one of its three campuses, the McGeorge School of Law, in Sacramento.
R A N C H O C O R D O V A
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
Demographic and Income Comparison Profile10755 Folsom Blvd, Rancho Cordova, California, 95670 Prepared by EsriRings: 1, 3, 5 mile radii Latitude: 38.59754
Longitude: -121.285921 mile 3 miles 5 miles
Census 2010 SummaryPopulation 13,330 75,203 202,555Households 4,819 29,137 80,217Families 3,263 18,827 52,126Average Household Size 2.72 2.55 2.50Owner Occupied Housing Units 2,691 15,934 48,982Renter Occupied Housing Units 2,128 13,203 31,235Median Age 35.3 37.1 39.8
2017 SummaryPopulation 14,223 79,353 213,436Households 5,110 30,354 83,582Families 3,450 19,666 54,423Average Household Size 2.74 2.59 2.53Owner Occupied Housing Units 2,741 16,281 49,925Renter Occupied Housing Units 2,370 14,072 33,656Median Age 36.2 37.9 40.7Median Household Income $52,688 $56,569 $64,506Average Household Income $66,418 $81,679 $90,981
2022 SummaryPopulation 14,882 82,801 222,704Households 5,321 31,473 86,692Families 3,591 20,416 56,506Average Household Size 2.76 2.60 2.54Owner Occupied Housing Units 2,840 16,914 51,714Renter Occupied Housing Units 2,481 14,560 34,977Median Age 36.5 38.3 41.1Median Household Income $56,210 $61,164 $72,020Average Household Income $75,479 $91,994 $102,490
Trends: 2017-2022 Annual RatePopulation 0.91% 0.85% 0.85%Households 0.81% 0.73% 0.73%Families 0.80% 0.75% 0.75%Owner Households 0.71% 0.77% 0.71%Median Household Income 1.30% 1.57% 2.23%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2017 and 2022.
August 25, 2017
©2017 Esri Page 1 of 7
Demographic and Income Comparison Profile10755 Folsom Blvd, Rancho Cordova, California, 95670 Prepared by EsriRings: 1, 3, 5 mile radii Latitude: 38.59754
Longitude: -121.28592
5 miles
AreaStateUSA
Trends 2017-2022Trends 2017-2022
Ann
ual R
ate
(in
perc
ent)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0Population Households Families Owner HHs Median HH Income
20172022
Population by AgePopulation by Age
Perc
ent
12
10
8
6
4
2
00-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
2017 Household Income 2017 Household Income
< $15K8.2%
$15K - $24K8.3%
$25K - $34K9.1%$35K - $49K
12.4%
$50K - $74K18.0%
$75K - $99K13.6%
$100K - $149K15.6%
$150K - $199K7.0%
$200K+7.8%
2017 Population by Race2017 Population by Race
Perc
ent
7065605550454035302520151050
White Black Am.Ind. Asian Pacific Other Two+ Hisp
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2017 and 2022.
August 25, 2017
©2017 Esri Page 7 of 7
Demographic and Income Comparison Profile10755 Folsom Blvd, Rancho Cordova, California, 95670 Prepared by EsriRings: 1, 3, 5 mile radii Latitude: 38.59754
Longitude: -121.28592
5 miles
AreaStateUSA
Trends 2017-2022Trends 2017-2022
Annu
al R
ate
(in
perc
ent)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0Population Households Families Owner HHs Median HH Income
20172022
Population by AgePopulation by Age
Perc
ent
12
10
8
6
4
2
00-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
2017 Household Income 2017 Household Income
< $15K8.2%
$15K - $24K8.3%
$25K - $34K9.1%$35K - $49K
12.4%
$50K - $74K18.0%
$75K - $99K13.6%
$100K - $149K15.6%
$150K - $199K7.0%
$200K+7.8%
2017 Population by Race2017 Population by Race
Perc
ent
7065605550454035302520151050
White Black Am.Ind. Asian Pacific Other Two+ Hisp
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2017 and 2022.
August 25, 2017
©2017 Esri Page 7 of 7
Business Summary10755 Folsom Blvd, Rancho Cordova, California, 95670 Prepared by EsriRings: 1, 3, 5 mile radii Latitude: 38.59754
Longitude: -121.28592Data for all businesses in area 1 mile 3 miles 5 milesTotal Businesses: 734 4,064 7,770Total Employees: 14,769 54,867 95,705Total Residential Population: 14,223 79,353 213,436Employee/Residential Population Ratio (per 100 Residents) 104 69 45
Businesses Employees Businesses Employees Businesses Employeesby SIC Codes Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number PercentAgriculture & Mining 7 1.0% 42 0.3% 75 1.8% 958 1.7% 140 1.8% 1,457 1.5%Construction 37 5.0% 389 2.6% 432 10.6% 5,174 9.4% 742 9.5% 7,855 8.2%Manufacturing 15 2.0% 1,073 7.3% 174 4.3% 5,911 10.8% 240 3.1% 8,195 8.6%Transportation 13 1.8% 146 1.0% 85 2.1% 1,491 2.7% 138 1.8% 3,156 3.3%Communication 10 1.4% 125 0.8% 38 0.9% 372 0.7% 62 0.8% 651 0.7%Utility 2 0.3% 36 0.2% 16 0.4% 343 0.6% 23 0.3% 431 0.5%Wholesale Trade 17 2.3% 278 1.9% 287 7.1% 2,557 4.7% 376 4.8% 3,012 3.1%
Retail Trade Summary 168 22.9% 2,690 18.2% 749 18.4% 9,187 16.7% 1,452 18.7% 16,732 17.5%Home Improvement 14 1.9% 427 2.9% 99 2.4% 1,081 2.0% 158 2.0% 1,851 1.9%General Merchandise Stores 6 0.8% 499 3.4% 19 0.5% 777 1.4% 27 0.3% 920 1.0%Food Stores 17 2.3% 314 2.1% 59 1.5% 840 1.5% 123 1.6% 2,426 2.5%Auto Dealers, Gas Stations, Auto Aftermarket 16 2.2% 97 0.7% 112 2.8% 724 1.3% 174 2.2% 1,237 1.3%Apparel & Accessory Stores 5 0.7% 23 0.2% 26 0.6% 114 0.2% 58 0.7% 236 0.2%Furniture & Home Furnishings 13 1.8% 94 0.6% 97 2.4% 1,888 3.4% 160 2.1% 2,340 2.4%Eating & Drinking Places 63 8.6% 907 6.1% 183 4.5% 2,492 4.5% 401 5.2% 5,275 5.5%Miscellaneous Retail 33 4.5% 330 2.2% 155 3.8% 1,271 2.3% 350 4.5% 2,446 2.6%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Summary 108 14.7% 4,224 28.6% 455 11.2% 7,642 13.9% 951 12.2% 10,942 11.4%Banks, Savings & Lending Institutions 24 3.3% 677 4.6% 70 1.7% 1,216 2.2% 149 1.9% 1,789 1.9%Securities Brokers 8 1.1% 205 1.4% 46 1.1% 459 0.8% 86 1.1% 580 0.6%Insurance Carriers & Agents 36 4.9% 3,051 20.7% 130 3.2% 4,582 8.4% 230 3.0% 5,482 5.7%Real Estate, Holding, Other Investment Offices 41 5.6% 291 2.0% 209 5.1% 1,384 2.5% 485 6.2% 3,091 3.2%
Services Summary 301 41.0% 4,782 32.4% 1,510 37.2% 17,521 31.9% 3,190 41.1% 34,716 36.3%Hotels & Lodging 13 1.8% 480 3.3% 20 0.5% 835 1.5% 25 0.3% 867 0.9%Automotive Services 23 3.1% 185 1.3% 193 4.7% 907 1.7% 275 3.5% 1,201 1.3%Motion Pictures & Amusements 19 2.6% 283 1.9% 88 2.2% 1,029 1.9% 184 2.4% 1,849 1.9%Health Services 42 5.7% 1,164 7.9% 155 3.8% 4,131 7.5% 438 5.6% 7,969 8.3%Legal Services 6 0.8% 57 0.4% 62 1.5% 382 0.7% 109 1.4% 579 0.6%Education Institutions & Libraries 12 1.6% 280 1.9% 64 1.6% 1,528 2.8% 188 2.4% 5,238 5.5%Other Services 186 25.3% 2,333 15.8% 928 22.8% 8,708 15.9% 1,970 25.4% 17,013 17.8%
Government 26 3.5% 945 6.4% 70 1.7% 3,609 6.6% 151 1.9% 8,401 8.8%
Unclassified Establishments 29 4.0% 38 0.3% 172 4.2% 103 0.2% 305 3.9% 156 0.2%
Totals 734 100.0% 14,769 100.0% 4,064 100.0% 54,867 100.0% 7,770 100.0% 95,705 100.0%
Source: Copyright 2017 Infogroup, Inc. All rights reserved. Esri Total Residential Population forecasts for 2017.Date Note: Data on the Business Summary report is calculated using Esri’s Data allocation method which uses census block groups to allocate business summary data to custom areas.
August 25, 2017
©2017 Esri Page 1 of 2
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D E M O G R A P H I C S
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900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
MARKETBEAT
Sacramento Region Retail Q2 2017
cushmanwakefield.com | 1
57%
19%
18%
6%
Neighborhood &Community
Strip
Power & Regional Mall
Lifestyle
7.1MSquare Feet
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
0
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Absorption (Thousands) Asking Rent, $ PSF
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast*
GDP Growth 1.3% 2.3% CPI Growth 1.1% 1.9% Consumer Spending Growth 2.7% 2.7% Retail Sales Growth 2.2% 4.0%
Regional
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast
Median HH Income $65,238 $67,077 Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% Unemployment 5.3% 4.7%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
National
Economy The US economy closed out the second quarter of 2017 with modest growth recorded across all metrics. Unemployment dropped to 4.4%, down 50 basis points (BPS) from one year ago, while gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 100 BPS from one year ago to 2.3%. In the Sacramento Region, total nonfarm jobs grew by 13,000 new positions, representing +1.4% growth in overall employment since the second quarter of 2016, thereby pushing the regional unemployment rate down by 60 BPS to 4.7%. Demand for space in Sacramento remains steady, thanks to it being a more cost effective alternative to the Bay Area and other pricier markets. We expect continued in-migration to the Region which will ensure a growing workforce.
Retail trade sector employment, alone, expanded by +1.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 100,800 total positions. Seasonal factors can cause retail trade sector employment to fluctuate throughout the year, but we still anticipate slow but steady growth in regional retail employment—namely in the general merchandise stores subcategory. In fact, growth in general merchandise stores was +2.9%, with 21,200 jobs added since last year, contributing nearly a third of the total YoY retail trade sector job growth. Much of this expected growth is due to the fact that food, beverage and grocery retailers, which falls into this subcategory, continues to require physical neighborhood store locations, despite the obvious disruption being caused by the advancement of eCommerce. As it would appear, some types of brick-and-mortar stores are here to stay due to their convenience—especially if they sell perishable products, like food and beverage.
Market Overview Overall availabilities in the Region have tightened by 9.9% since the second quarter of 2016, with 7.1 million square feet (MSF) of space now on the market. This is also reflected by the decrease in overall vacancy across all center types, tumbling by 90 BPS YoY to 9.4%. Demand for retail space in the Region has been sufficient enough for overall vacancy level to move closer to its pre-recession level, which was below the 9.0% mark until the second quarter of 2008.
Leasing activity was 510,200 square feet (SF) in the second quarter which brought the year-to-date (YTD) leasing activity total up to 1.38 MSF. This compares to the 1.43 MSF of YTD gross leasing activity for the first half of 2016 (4.5% higher). Net absorption for the second quarter of 2017 was improved over the figure from the second quarter of 2016 at +45,400 SF and -29,200 SF, respectively. The neighborhood & community center category posted the highest net absorption of all center types in the Region, with +54,200 SF of net absorption, which is an increase of +339% in YoY activity.
Availability by Type
*Forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. Values represent Y-o-Y % change.
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE
MARKETBEAT
Sacramento Region Retail Q2 2017
cushmanwakefield.com | 2
$27.
75
$26.
46
$26.
11
$25.
54
$23.
43
$23.
35
$23.
14
$20.
71
$20.
58
$20.
50
$19.
68
$19.
65
$16.
89
$15.
36
$15.
04
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$5.00
$10.00
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$20.00
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$30.00
$35.00
FOL
ED
EG
DA
V
DTM
T
ALL
NA
T
AH
W RR
WS
AC
SSA
C
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CH
HW
Y50
RLN
H
WL
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Neighborhood & Community StripPower & Regional Lifestyle
With firm growth in net absorption along with declining vacancy rates, average asking rents have risen by $0.15 YoY to $20.64 per-square-foot (PSF) on an annual triple-net basis (NNN). Folsom took the lead as the submarket with the highest asking rents, rising to $27.75 PSF. This is $0.30 more than just one quarter ago, and $1.15 (or +4.3%) higher than one year ago.
Among the numerous retail properties under construction, the most notable in the suburbs is Delta Shores Center (on Beach Lake Rd. at Interstate 5) in the South Sacramento submarket. This new speculative 727,400 SF power center is set to deliver in late 2017, and will add such big box stores as Wal-Mart Super Center and RC Willey Home Furnishings to what used to be a large section of vacant land between South Sacramento and Elk Grove.
In the central business district, including Downtown, Midtown and East Sacramento, the two key retail projects under construction are Downtown Commons (AKA DOCO) and The Ice Blocks. DOCO is situated next door to the Golden 1 Center, and will add 140,000 SF of lifestyle center space, as well as mixed use components like the 20-story Sawyer Hotel, with a delivery date set for the fourth quarter of this year. Tenants already signed at DOCO include Punchbowl Social, Yard House, and Urban Outfitters. The Ice Blocks in Midtown will add 200,000 SF of mixed-use space, with three components: Ice Yard, Ice Shed and Ice Shop all making up the total. Philz Coffee has already opened at the Ice Blocks, and future tenants will include West Elm and Pressed Juicery. The largest new lease signed during the quarter was by Ashley Furniture at 10333-10363 Fairway Drive in Roseville for 37,000 SF, with a third quarter 2017 commencement. The largest sale of the quarter was Raley’s Center at 4810-5030 Elk Grove Boulevard in Elk Grove, where this neighborhood center totaling at 78,600 SF was sold as part of a portfolio by Panattoni Development to Tennessee Consolidated Retirement System for $28.8M or $367 PSF.
Market Indicators MIDYEAR NET ABSORPTION POSITIVE, PUSHING VACANCY DOWN
Average Asking Rate by Market (NNN) FOLSOM RENTS TAKE LEAD AS HIGHEST IN THE REGION
Average Asking Rate by Type (NNN) OVERALL RENTS GREW BY $0.15 PSF SINCE Q2 2016
Outlook Grocery stores as well as fitness and food-related tenants will
continue to seek space, resulting in steadily declining vacancy rates in neighborhood/community centers.
The opening of retail spaces at DOCO will contribute to a secondary “Arena Effect” among retail nearby, with rental rates expected to climb to unprecedented levels.
Despite fluctuations in average asking rents during the second half of 2017, rates will continue to grow modestly into 2018 as declining vacancy stays ahead of new deliveries.
PHYSICAL STORE LOCATIONS IN NEIGHBORHOOD CENTERS REMAIN IN DEMAND, DESPITE THE OBVIOUS DISRUPTION IN RETAIL DUE TO E-COMMERCE.
Q2 16 Q2 17 % Growth (1 Year) 12-Month
Forecast Overall Vacancy 10.5% 9.4% -110 BPS Net Absorption (SF) -29.2k 45.4k +156% Under Construction (SF) 401.4k 1.08M +269% Average Asking Rent (NNN) $20.49 $20.64 $0.15
MARKETBEAT
Sacramento Region Retail Q2 2017
cushmanwakefield.com | 1
57%
19%
18%
6%
Neighborhood &Community
Strip
Power & Regional Mall
Lifestyle
7.1MSquare Feet
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
0
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Absorption (Thousands) Asking Rent, $ PSF
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast*
GDP Growth 1.3% 2.3% CPI Growth 1.1% 1.9% Consumer Spending Growth 2.7% 2.7% Retail Sales Growth 2.2% 4.0%
Regional
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast
Median HH Income $65,238 $67,077 Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% Unemployment 5.3% 4.7%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
National
Economy The US economy closed out the second quarter of 2017 with modest growth recorded across all metrics. Unemployment dropped to 4.4%, down 50 basis points (BPS) from one year ago, while gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 100 BPS from one year ago to 2.3%. In the Sacramento Region, total nonfarm jobs grew by 13,000 new positions, representing +1.4% growth in overall employment since the second quarter of 2016, thereby pushing the regional unemployment rate down by 60 BPS to 4.7%. Demand for space in Sacramento remains steady, thanks to it being a more cost effective alternative to the Bay Area and other pricier markets. We expect continued in-migration to the Region which will ensure a growing workforce.
Retail trade sector employment, alone, expanded by +1.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 100,800 total positions. Seasonal factors can cause retail trade sector employment to fluctuate throughout the year, but we still anticipate slow but steady growth in regional retail employment—namely in the general merchandise stores subcategory. In fact, growth in general merchandise stores was +2.9%, with 21,200 jobs added since last year, contributing nearly a third of the total YoY retail trade sector job growth. Much of this expected growth is due to the fact that food, beverage and grocery retailers, which falls into this subcategory, continues to require physical neighborhood store locations, despite the obvious disruption being caused by the advancement of eCommerce. As it would appear, some types of brick-and-mortar stores are here to stay due to their convenience—especially if they sell perishable products, like food and beverage.
Market Overview Overall availabilities in the Region have tightened by 9.9% since the second quarter of 2016, with 7.1 million square feet (MSF) of space now on the market. This is also reflected by the decrease in overall vacancy across all center types, tumbling by 90 BPS YoY to 9.4%. Demand for retail space in the Region has been sufficient enough for overall vacancy level to move closer to its pre-recession level, which was below the 9.0% mark until the second quarter of 2008.
Leasing activity was 510,200 square feet (SF) in the second quarter which brought the year-to-date (YTD) leasing activity total up to 1.38 MSF. This compares to the 1.43 MSF of YTD gross leasing activity for the first half of 2016 (4.5% higher). Net absorption for the second quarter of 2017 was improved over the figure from the second quarter of 2016 at +45,400 SF and -29,200 SF, respectively. The neighborhood & community center category posted the highest net absorption of all center types in the Region, with +54,200 SF of net absorption, which is an increase of +339% in YoY activity.
Availability by Type
*Forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. Values represent Y-o-Y % change.
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE
MARKETBEAT
Sacramento Region Retail Q2 2017
cushmanwakefield.com | 1
57%
19%
18%
6%
Neighborhood &Community
Strip
Power & Regional Mall
Lifestyle
7.1MSquare Feet
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
0
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Absorption (Thousands) Asking Rent, $ PSF
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast*
GDP Growth 1.3% 2.3% CPI Growth 1.1% 1.9% Consumer Spending Growth 2.7% 2.7% Retail Sales Growth 2.2% 4.0%
Regional
Q2 16 Q2 17 12-Month Forecast
Median HH Income $65,238 $67,077 Population Growth 1.0% 0.8% Unemployment 5.3% 4.7%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
National
Economy The US economy closed out the second quarter of 2017 with modest growth recorded across all metrics. Unemployment dropped to 4.4%, down 50 basis points (BPS) from one year ago, while gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 100 BPS from one year ago to 2.3%. In the Sacramento Region, total nonfarm jobs grew by 13,000 new positions, representing +1.4% growth in overall employment since the second quarter of 2016, thereby pushing the regional unemployment rate down by 60 BPS to 4.7%. Demand for space in Sacramento remains steady, thanks to it being a more cost effective alternative to the Bay Area and other pricier markets. We expect continued in-migration to the Region which will ensure a growing workforce.
Retail trade sector employment, alone, expanded by +1.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 100,800 total positions. Seasonal factors can cause retail trade sector employment to fluctuate throughout the year, but we still anticipate slow but steady growth in regional retail employment—namely in the general merchandise stores subcategory. In fact, growth in general merchandise stores was +2.9%, with 21,200 jobs added since last year, contributing nearly a third of the total YoY retail trade sector job growth. Much of this expected growth is due to the fact that food, beverage and grocery retailers, which falls into this subcategory, continues to require physical neighborhood store locations, despite the obvious disruption being caused by the advancement of eCommerce. As it would appear, some types of brick-and-mortar stores are here to stay due to their convenience—especially if they sell perishable products, like food and beverage.
Market Overview Overall availabilities in the Region have tightened by 9.9% since the second quarter of 2016, with 7.1 million square feet (MSF) of space now on the market. This is also reflected by the decrease in overall vacancy across all center types, tumbling by 90 BPS YoY to 9.4%. Demand for retail space in the Region has been sufficient enough for overall vacancy level to move closer to its pre-recession level, which was below the 9.0% mark until the second quarter of 2008.
Leasing activity was 510,200 square feet (SF) in the second quarter which brought the year-to-date (YTD) leasing activity total up to 1.38 MSF. This compares to the 1.43 MSF of YTD gross leasing activity for the first half of 2016 (4.5% higher). Net absorption for the second quarter of 2017 was improved over the figure from the second quarter of 2016 at +45,400 SF and -29,200 SF, respectively. The neighborhood & community center category posted the highest net absorption of all center types in the Region, with +54,200 SF of net absorption, which is an increase of +339% in YoY activity.
Availability by Type
*Forecast by Cushman & Wakefield. Values represent Y-o-Y % change.
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent 4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE
M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
1 4
900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector +1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530
1 0 7 5 5 F O L S O M B O U L E V A R D | R A N C H O C O R D O V A
900 Larkspur Landing Circle Suite 295, Larkspur, CA 94939 Main +1 415 485 0500 Fax +1 415 485 1341cushmanwakefield.com
Niels vonDoeppDirector+1 415 451 2403 [email protected] #01447530