"single cmo" management committee 19 march 2009 the european pigmeat sector

"Single CMO" Management Committee 19 March 2009

The European pigmeat sector

DG AGRI C4 18 April 2023 2

Development of the Community average market price for pig carcases

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Pri

ce i

n E

uro

/10

0 k

g

2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr Avg (03-07)


Percentual change in Pig prices February 2009

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

BE BGCZ DK DE EE EL ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SV UK EU

Diff

eren

ce in

%

-1 year

- 1 month


Development of the Community average market price for piglets

25

30

35

40

45

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€u

ro/

pie

ce

2006 2007 2008 2009 5 yr avg (03 - 07)


TOEPFER weekly Cereal and Substitute prices 2008 - 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50

US

$/T

FREIGHT Panamax soja beans USA soja pellets ARG Citrus p.Palm pitkernels EU maïs in US$ C.G.F.

week 10 of 2009 -75% compared to

week 1 of 2008


Prices for slaughtered pigs minus Compound Feed costs

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ja fe mr ap ma jn jl au se oc no de

Eu

ro/ 100kg

0.000

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

Sla

ug

hte

rin

gs in

Mio

To

nn

s

Margin Feed cost PigpricesAvg Margin Slaught. Eu 15 Slaught EU 27


Comparisson between Compoundfeed

for Pigs and a Cereal-Feedmix

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

| 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |

Euro

/ T (com

pound feed)

Euro

/ 100kg (pork

)

margin pig/ comp. Feed (4.4)Cereal-mixCompound feedPig carcaseAvg Margin 95 - 07

forecast

forecast

price forecast


10 605 No data communicated. Legal delivery date 15 FebruaryForecast on basis of data communicated by other MS

-19.8% MS with large decreases

Gross indigenous production forecasts on pigs 1000 heads (animals)

EU de es dk fr nl pl it be uk othertime2007q01 64 912 10 967 10 473 6 782 6 774 5 614 6 480 3 313 2 779 2 242 9 4882008q01 65 352 11 393 10 727 7 000 6 622 5 688 6 100 3 334 2 674 2 196 9 6182009q01 63 093 11 299 10 191 6 900 6 564 5 675 5 100 3 400 2 595 2 268 9 102

-3.5% -0.8% -5.0% -1.4% -0.9% -0.2% -16.4% 2.0% -3.0% 3.3% -5.4%

2007q02 61 800 10 658 9 733 6 204 6 266 5 329 6 490 2 992 2 519 2 246 9 3632008q02 61 773 11 135 9 624 6 300 6 315 5 571 5 900 3 000 2 399 2 193 9 3362009q02 60 454 10 937 9 686 6 400 6 177 5 550 5 140 3 001 2 500 2 191 8 873

-2.1% -1.8% 0.6% 1.6% -2.2% -0.4% -12.9% 0.0% 4.2% -0.1% -5.0%

2007q03 62 660 11 193 10 074 6 328 6 411 5 473 6 030 2 947 2 582 2 112 9 5102008q03 61 929 11 242 9 643 6 493 6 495 5 648 5 300 3 022 2 647 2 151 9 2882009q03 60 845 11 281 9 474 6 600 6 309 5 625 5 180 2 959 2 570 2 218 8 629

-1.7% 0.3% -1.7% 1.6% -2.9% -0.4% -2.3% -2.1% -2.9% 3.1% -7.1%

2007q04 70 572 11 838 11 585 6 997 6 677 5 642 5 677 3 566 2 725 2 485 13 3792008q04 67 691 11 629 10 831 6 847 6 609 5 710 4 620 3 674 2 610 2 282 12 8792009q04 66 206 11 069 10 593 6 650 6 420 5 650 5 300 3 570 2 629 2 255 12 070

-2.2% -4.8% -2.2% -2.9% -2.9% -1.1% 14.7% -2.8% 0.7% -1.2% -6.3%

Year2007 259 944 44 655 41 865 26 311 26 128 22 058 24 677 12 818 10 605 9 086 41 7402008 256 744 45 399 40 824 26 640 26 041 22 617 21 920 13 030 10 330 8 823 41 1202009 250 598 44 585 39 943 26 550 25 470 22 500 20 720 12 930 10 294 8 932 38 674

-2.4% -1.8% -2.2% -0.3% -2.2% -0.5% -5.5% -0.8% -0.3% 1.2% -5.9%

Percentage of estimated slaughter2009 100.0% 17.8% 15.9% 10.6% 10.2% 9.0% 8.3% 5.2% 4.1% 3.6% 15.4%


Slaughter: Quarterly change compared to the same period in the previous year (EU 25/27)

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

Q1 -3.7% 2.6% 5.4% 1.2% -4.0%

Q2 2.0% 1.1% 2.9% -0.3% -2.1%

Q3 0.5% 0.5% 4.2% -1.7% -1.8%

Q4 -0.4% 1.4% 4.7% -4.6% -2.1%

Ann -0.5% 1.0% 4.3% -1.4% -2.5%

2005 2006 2007/25 2008/27 2009


December 2008: Provisional data 6 088 Calculation DG AGRI1000 heads (animals) No data yet communicated for this survey (legal date 15 February)EU 27 de es fr pl dk nl it ro be uk Other

Germany Spain France Poland Denmark NetherlandsItaly Romania Belgium United Kingdom

Total of the pig population2005 159 115 26 989 24 889 15 123 18 711 12 604 11 000 9 200 6 604 6 253 4 726 23 0162006 161 929 26 821 26 219 15 009 18 813 13 613 11 220 9 281 6 815 6 304 4 731 23 1042007 159 724 27 113 26 061 14 654 17 621 13 170 11 710 9 273 6 565 6 200 4 671 22 6862008 152 975 26 719 26 290 14 796 14 242 12 195 11 735 9 252 6 149 6 129 4 550 20 918

-4.2% -1.5% 0.9% 1.0% -19.2% -7.4% 0.2% -0.2% -6.3% -1.2% -2.6% -7.8%

Piglets with a live weight of less than 20 kg2005 43 263 6 878 6 750 3 708 6 255 4 102 4 170 1 716 852 1 528 1 244 6 0602006 43 465 6 682 6 833 3 700 5 847 4 435 4 470 1 740 917 1 622 1 167 6 0522007 43 134 6 740 7 060 3 623 5 541 4 251 4 680 1 728 903 1 561 1 216 5 8312008 40 685 6 551 7 149 3 542 4 295 4 071 4 555 1 691 848 1 527 1 128 5 328

-5.7% -2.8% 1.3% -2.2% -22.5% -4.2% -2.7% -2.1% -6.1% -2.2% -7.2% -8.6%

Pigs with a live weight of 20 kg and less than 50 kg2005 37 520 6 733 5 324 4 205 4 574 3 543 1 885 1 858 1 311 1 331 1 206 5 5512006 38 627 6 614 6 264 4 042 4 795 3 845 1 840 1 880 1 404 1 303 1 221 5 4202007 37 597 6 618 5 892 4 044 4 460 3 578 1 950 1 861 1 395 1 283 1 170 5 3452008 36 353 6 658 5 792 3 998 3 778 3 433 2 030 1 852 1 310 1 273 1 210 5 019

-3.3% 0.6% -1.7% -1.1% -15.3% -4.1% 4.1% -0.5% -6.1% -0.8% 3.4% -6.1%

Sows - total2005 15 451 2 504 2 593 1 274 1 808 1 340 1 100 722 494 584 505 2 5292006 15 569 2 467 2 689 1 264 1 786 1 414 1 050 772 521 578 524 2 5052007 14 904 2 418 2 663 1 210 1 587 1 353 1 060 754 443 567 498 2 3522008 13 977 2 296 2 542 1 201 1 279 1 289 1 025 756 398 546 488 2 157

-6.2% -5.0% -4.5% -0.7% -19.4% -4.7% -3.3% 0.3% -10.1% -3.7% -2.0% -8.3%

Mated sows2005 10 533 1 760 1 716 910 1 187 838 725 591 306 460 363 1 6782006 10 646 1 746 1 874 903 1 144 870 700 622 316 455 370 1 6452007 10 105 1 712 1 782 861 999 825 710 590 264 451 363 1 5502008 9 616 1 633 1 698 860 823 803 710 613 237 440 359 1 441

-4.8% -4.6% -4.7% -0.1% -17.6% -2.7% 0.0% 3.9% -10.1% -2.5% -1.1% -7.0%


Development of Total pig number in the EU Member Statesin 1000 heads Sorted on 2008

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

de es fr pl dk nl it ro be uk hu at pt cz se ie fi gr lt bg sk cy si lv ee lu mt

2005

2006

2007

2008

Nine largest pig producing MS (DE - BE, more than 5 Mio animals)stand for 83,3% of EU production


Change in Pigherd 2005 - 2008

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

Piglets Y. Pigs Sows M. Sows

in 1

00

0 H

ea

ds

07/08 08/09Total -1.4% -4.2%Piglets -0.8% -5.7%Y. pigs -2.7% -3.3%Sows -4.3% -6.2%M. Sows -5.1% -4.8%


Private StorageHorizontal regulation (EC) N° 826/2008Specific regulations (EC) N° 1278/2008 1329/2008

start : December 2008Storage periods : 3, 4, 5 and 6 monthsSuspension periodend :

Quantity concluded 556 TonsQuantity put into store 10 Tons% stored compared with concluded 1.8%Quantity taken out the store 0 TonsRemains in store 10 Tons

Maximum financial consequence 0.211 mio €uro (Not taken into account earlier destocking)

Cont. Conc Mis en stock Destock Reste diff a b c d e f h = c - d

IRELAND 546 0 0 0 546UNITED KINGDOM 10 10 0 10 0

T O T A L 556 10 0 10 546


Weekly average Pigprices 2006 - 2009EU, Brazil and the US in Euro/ 100kg carcase

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |

weeksEU

US

Braz. avg

EU = w eighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meatUS = w eekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iow a-Minn. 167-187lbBR = avg of maximum prices in main producing states (suino.com.br)


Pigprices in US and EU and forecastsEU forecast: Working group priceforecast pigmeat

US Forecast: Feedstuffs

70

95

120

145

170

195

| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |

€u

ro/ 1

00k

g

EU

US


Money makes the world go around

€ $ Pуб ₤ 圓 ¥ лв R$ etc.


Index of exchange rate changes to the euroas from 1.1.2008

-35.0%

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

| J an | Feb | March| April | May | J une | J uly | Aug. | Sept | Oct. | Nov | Dec | J an | Feb | Mrch

ronskk

czkplngbp

a negetive index means depreciation of the currency


Weekly exchange rate US dollar 2005 - 2009

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

| 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 |

1 €uro = .......US$


Index of exchange rate changes to the euroas from 1.1.2008

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%


usd

rub

jpy



Index of exchange rate €uro/dollar divided by the exchangerate €uro/ Rubleas from 1.1.2008

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%


Index US$ versus the Russian Rouble



Index of exchange rates US$ and BRL compared to the €uro

January 2001 = 100

90.0

130.0

170.0

210.0

I 2001 I 2002 I 2003 I 2004 I 2005 I 2006 I 2007 I 2008 I 2009 |Real US$


Trade in Pigmeat


tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

USA 4 890 21.6% 3 532 16.3% 5 380 16.6% 9 065 21.0% 21 547 36.1%

Chile 4 261 18.8% 4 994 23.0% 7 568 23.4% 12 347 28.6% 17 132 28.7%

Sw itzerland 8 331 36.8% 4 933 22.7% 8 934 27.6% 10 476 24.2% 12 368 20.7%

Croatia 1 594 7.0% 2 189 10.1% 3 930 12.1% 2 863 6.6% 3 964 6.6%

Serbia 0.0% 716 3.3% 523 1.6% 1 217 2.8% 1 181 2.0%

Russia 84 0.4% 280 1.3% 313 1.0% 280 0.6% 583 1.0%

Canada 61 0.3% 79 0.4% 252 0.8% 2 660 6.2% 53 0.1%EXTRA EU15-25-27 22 612 21 730 32 368 43 217 59 724

% change - 4% + 49% + 34% + 38.2%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-déc 082007

EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

OriginsOrigins

Nov 2008 figures not available for Latvia


EU imports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (Tonnes prod. weight)

5 380 9 06521 5477 568

12 347

17 132

8 934

10 476

12 368

6 033

7 24932 368

43 217

59 724

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Jan-déc 06 Jan-déc 07 Jan-déc 08

Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Serbia Other destinations


IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-27 (1000 EUR)

14 96023 773

52 42521 935

28 737

41 901

21 710

19 533

13 454

64 167

79 283

119 823

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000


1,00

0 E

UR

USA Chile SwitzerlandCroatia Serbia Other destinations


Imports of selected PIG products

0

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s (

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS



Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to 07

Russia 418 176 23.5% 485 437 25.0% 687 402 32.9% 647 057 33.9% 764 117 30.0% + 18%

Hong Kong 157 424 8.8% 139 578 7.2% 138 554 6.6% 243 203 12.7% 454 242 17.8% + 87%

Japan 360 621 20.3% 305 731 15.8% 249 380 11.9% 232 951 12.2% 236 120 9.3% + 1%

Ukraine 21 203 1.2% 47 814 2.5% 9 789 0.5% 2 757 0.1% 188 006 7.4% +++

China 53 167 3.0% 70 788 3.7% 53 785 2.6% 86 291 4.5% 146 138 5.7% + 69%

South Korea 111 770 6.3% 117 671 6.1% 142 599 6.8% 137 443 7.2% 115 693 4.5% - 16%

Croatia 41 939 2.4% 59 964 3.1% 56 785 2.7% 56 171 2.9% 63 706 2.5% + 13%

USA 86 454 4.9% 72 843 3.8% 67 048 3.2% 66 527 3.5% 61 288 2.4% - 8%

Belarus 30 247 1.7% 48 506 2.5% 59 586 2.9% 10 529 0.6% 55 090 2.2% +++

Angola 29 379 1.6% 34 356 1.8% 40 757 2.0% 48 637 2.5% 48 922 1.9% + 1%

Australia 29 145 1.6% 28 126 1.5% 29 579 1.4% 34 583 1.8% 45 604 1.8% + 32%

Philippines 28 066 1.6% 20 896 1.1% 23 321 1.1% 34 217 1.8% 40 911 1.6% + 20%EXTRA EU15-25-27 1 780 568 1 938 455 2 089 363 1 910 695 2 550 904

% change + 9% + 8% - 9% + 33.5%

2004 2005 2006 Jan-déc 082007

EU exports of selected PIG products:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

DestinationsDestinations



EU exports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes product weight)

EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes prod. weight)

687 402 647 037 764 117

138 554 243 203454 242249 380 232 951

236 120146 138950 452 698 456

762 282

188 006

2 089 3631 910 695

2 550 904

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000


Tonn

es (p

rodu

ct w

eigh

t)

Russia Hong Kong Japan

China Ukraine Other destinations


EU-27 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

860 896 832 7421 136 134

92 799 179 932

412 355777 545 729 481

738 215

126 447258 8211 685 556 1 383 769

1 564 797

3 458 6713 196 833

4 236 771

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000


1,00

0 E

UR

Russia Hong Kong Japan

China Ukraine Other destinations



Exports of selected PIG products

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

| 2006 | 2007 | 2008

in T

on

ne

s (

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t)

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS



46

13

5

59

72

0

71

93

7

51

64

1

63

80

0

55

91

8

56

07

7

54

49

9

72

27

6

22

61

2

21

73

0

32

36

8

43

21

7

59

72

4

88

1 0

11

94

3 4

05

1 0

83

23

0

1 2

38

13

8 1 5

56

96

1

1 5

45

90

7

1 3

31

80

8

1 5

26

56

3

1 5

09

30

2

1 7

80

56

8

1 9

38

45

5

2 0

89

36

3

1 9

10

69

5

2 5

50

90

4

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan-déc08

To

nn

es

pro

du

ct

we

igh

t

IMPORTS EXPORTS

EU trade of PIG products


Cumulated quantity of weekly requests

for Export licenses in the Pigmeat sector

for Gatt year 2008 - 2009

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

To

nn

Cumulative quantity available

cumulative attributions

"single cmo" management committee 19 march 2009 the european pigmeat sector

Documents

agri c4

latvia slide

pigmeat slide

private storage slide

european pigmeat sector