singapore traders spectrum wired weekly...dbs group research . equity 14 nov 2016 singapore traders...

YEO Kee Yan CMT (65) 6682 3706 [email protected]

ed: TH / sa: JC, PY

DBS Group Research . Equity 14 Nov 2016

Singapore Traders Spectrum

Wired Weekly Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

KEY POINTS

Protectionist stance negative for small, export-oriented

open Singapore economy - STI downside risk to 2670, rebound upside cap 2850

Trump negative for EM markets – MSCI EM Index is at risk of downside to 843, MSCI EM Currency Index to 1504

Inflation pressure & rising bond yield negative for SREITs – Cambridge Industrials, SPH REIT and Suntec REIT

Selective Trump beneficiaries – ST Engineering, Bumitama Agri, Indofood Agri and Venture Corp

Model Portfolio changes – Remove Japfa, Ezion & AREIT

Wired Weekly

Donald Trump’s campaign slogan is “Make America Great Again!” Note it isn’t “Make Global Growth Great Again!” and certainly not “Make Asia Great Again!” What’s good for America may not be good for others.

A Trump victory means the Trans-Pacific Partnership could well be scrapped, in which Singapore is a member country. Trump’s protectionist stance also affects small, export-oriented open economies such as Singapore. His pro-growth policies and inflationary pressures could accelerate the normalisation of interest rates, another key risk for the market.

Investors are selling down EM equities and currencies following Trump’s victory. Technically, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has cracked below a crucial support around 880 that should see it heading lower to 843. At the same time, the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has fallen below the crucial 1528 support level that should send it lower to 1504.

Trump’s policies are likely to lead to inflationary pressure and lift rate hike expectations. This trend is negative for SREITs. Look to pare exposure on SREITs. We are most cautious on Cambridge Industrials, SPH REIT and Suntec REIT because their total return (target return + dividend) is less than 10%.

Selectively, there are potential beneficiaries to Trump’s victory. ST Engineering could benefit from increased military spending following Trump’s call to increase defence spending and if more countries around the world also seek to beef up their own defences.

CPO stocks Bumitama Agri and Indofood Agri are beneficiaries of the USD/IDR strength and the rally in CPO price following news that palm oil inventories in Malaysia increased at a slower-than-expected pace. Ceteris paribus, Venture Corp should also benefit from the USD strength and Ringgit weakness.

We have removed Japfa, Ezion and AREIT from our model portfolio.

Straits Times Index FTSE Small Cap Index

STI and 12-mth forward PE Brent Crude Oil

Source: Datastream, DBS Bank FTSE Indices’ 5-Day Performance

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

360

380

400

420

440

Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16

FTSE Small Cap Index

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100


ST Index

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16

Avg @ 13.6x

- 1SD @ 12.1x

+1SD @ 15.2x

- 2SD @ 10.6x

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


Brent Crude OilUS$/barrel

Index @ 1 Wk % YTD %

F TSE Sectoral Indices 11-Nov -16 Chg Chg

STI 2814.6 0.9 -2.4Mid Cap 683.49 0.7 2.4

Small Cap 385.48 0.0 -4.5

All Share 694.88 0.7 0.0

China 196.93 0.4 -5.8

Real Estate 702.91 -0.7 0.2

Real Estate & Dev 699.64 0.1 -3.0

Real Estate Inv Trust 720.06 -1.4 3.5

Oil & Gas 308.21 3.5 -19.2

Basic Materials 94.72 2.9 -12.1

Industrials 713.03 -0.5 7.0

Consumer Goods 517.82 0.7 20.4Health Care 1474.01 -1.9 0.2

Consumer Serv ice 740.5 -0.3 -4.2

Telecommunication 959.61 -2.1 0.5

Utilities 375.77 -0.5 -10.1

Financials 758.64 1.7 -1.7

Technology 259.07 -1.2 -18.2


Wired Weekly

Singapore Market Summary

Week in Review

The benchmark STI gyrated in an eventful and volatile week that saw Donald Trump elected the 45th US president. STI gyrated within an 80-pt range from 2760 to 2840 before

ending the week at 2814 (+0.9%), lifted by index heavyweight bank stocks. Investors rushed to reshuffle their sector and stock exposures, anticipating impact from Trump’s policies. There are more sector losers than winners as the dust starts to settle three days after Trump’s unexpected win.

FTSE ST Indices since Nov 8 US Election Day

Source: DBS Bank

Banks and CPO were gainers

Index heavyweight bank stocks DBS, UOB and OCBC led gains, riding on one of Trump’s focus to deregulate the financial sector. Trump’s direction to boost fiscal spending and cut corporate and personal taxes is also driving up inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the US yield curve. This is seen as positive for US banks that could eventually lead to a re-rating of global banks. Still, it remains to be seen if local bank stocks can sustain last week’s rise. After all, a rising interest rate environment can lead to higher NPL risks as the local economy stays weak.

The consumer goods sector was lifted by CPO stocks First Resources and Wilmar International, riding on the rally in CPO price following news that palm oil inventories in Malaysia increased at a slower-than-expected pace (actual 1.57m MT, consensus 1.67m MT) in October after production unexpectedly declined to 1.68m MT.

STI component stocks >1% w-o-w gain

Company Price ($)

Change

$ %

DBS 15.95 1.02 6.83

Yangzijiang 0.77 0.045 6.21

Golden Agri 0.375 0.015 4.17

Sembcorp Industries 2.6 0.09 3.59

Genting Singapore 0.87 0.02 2.35

UOB 18.8 0.36 1.95

Keppel Corp 5.34 0.09 1.71

OCBC 8.57 0.14 1.66

Wilmar International 3.3 0.05 1.54

Singapore Exchange 7.09 0.1 1.43

Source: DBS Bank

% Losers – Telco, REITs, Tech, consumer services

% Gainers – Financials and consumer goods


Wired Weekly

Telco, REITs, Tech and consumer services were losers

The defensive telecom stocks and interest rate-sensitive REITs sector fell most on concerns that Trump’s policies will lift inflation pressures. SingTel and Starhub were among the STI component stocks that fell most in percentage terms w-o-w. S-REITs AREIT, CMT and CCT fell more than 1% last week.

The consumer services sector was dragged down by weakness in Jardine C&C and SIA. We think trade protectionism will dampen growth outlook for SIA, particularly its cargo business which has been bleeding due to global overcapacity. The technology sector was dragged down by Nera Tel, whose share price fell after the company released its quarterly results.

STI component stocks >1% w-o-w decline

Company Price ($)

Change

$ %

CCT 1.525 -0.015 -0.97

Thai Bev 0.935 -0.015 -1.58

AREIT 2.26 -0.04 -1.74

SIA 9.77 -0.18 -1.81

CapitaLand Mall Trust 1.955 -0.04 -2.01

Hongkong Land 6.53 -0.14 -2.1

HPH Trust 0.42 -0.01 -2.33

Jardine Matheson 57.15 -1.8 -3.05

Jardine C&C 40.53 -1.37 -3.27

SingTel 3.72 -0.13 -3.38

StarHub 3.07 -0.12 -3.76

SIA Engineering 3.5 -0.14 -3.85

Source: DBS Bank

Trump victory spells uncertainty for Emerging Markets

Donald Trump’s campaign slogan is “Make America Great Again!”

Note it isn’t “Make Global Growth Great Again!” and certainly not “Make Asia Great Again!”

Investors should think twice before jumping in blindly to buy stocks just because the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 550pts (+3%) in the first three days following his election victory on optimism that the new President will spur US growth. Trump’s protectionist stance is negative for exporter countries in Asia and emerging markets. Hence, investors are paring down exposure to these markets.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) started to turn down two weeks before the 8 November election and continued to slide last week. Technically, MXEF looks to have cracked below a crucial support around 880 that should see it heading lower to 843.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Source: DBS Bank

Emerging markets currencies are also being hit by the Trump victory as inflation expectation rises. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has fallen below the crucial 1528 support level that could send it lower to 1504.

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index

Source: DBS Bank

Protectionist stance negative for Singapore’s small-open economy

A Trump victory means the Trans-Pacific Partnership could well be scrapped, in which Singapore is a member country. Trump’s protectionist stance also affects small, export-oriented open economies such as Singapore that is already suffering from weaker exports. Trump’s pro-growth policies and inflationary pressures could also accelerate the normalisation of interest rates, another key risk for the market.

These, together with a continuation of the ‘earnings recession’ trend and the likelihood of a December FED rate hike, has capped STI’s immediate rebound at slightly below the 2850 level (refer to Wired Daily dated 10 November). We see downside risk to 2670 for the STI, which coincides with 12.09x (-1SD) FY17F PE.


Wired Weekly

Higher inflation pressure negative for SREITs

Trump’s focus on infrastructure spending and tax cuts for corporations and individuals is likely to lead to inflationary pressure and support rate hikes. US bond yields spiked higher

last week with the 2-year yield higher by 18bps to 0.96% and the 10-year yield jumped 42bps to 2.15% since the November 4 low. The MAS 10-year government bond yield rose 19bps to 2.13% since November 9.

Rising bond yields negative for SREITs

Source: DBS Bank

While the sharp yield spike up is part reactionary and a pause is possible in the near-term, the spectre of higher inflation pressure going forward should underpin yields and cause the FED to raise rates at a faster pace than was earlier expected. This trend is negative for SREITs. Look to pare down exposure on SREITs.

The table below shows the list of SREITs under our coverage with HOLD recommendations. Among these, we are most cautious on Cambridge Industrials, SPH REIT and Suntec REIT because their total return (target return + dividend) is less than 10%.

SREITs

Company Price 10 Nov

2016 Target Price

Target Return Rcmd

Div Yield 16 (%)

Net Debt / Equity 16 (%)

P/BV 15 (x)

Target + Dividend (%)

Cambridge Industrials 0.545 0.54 -1% HOLD 7.5 0.4 0.8 6.5

SPH REIT 0.980 1.00 2% HOLD 5.7 0.3 1.0 7.7

Suntec REIT 1.670 1.71 2% HOLD 6.0 0.4 0.8 8.0

Far East Hospitality Trust 0.600 0.62 3% HOLD 7.1 0.3 0.6 10.1

OUE Commercial REIT 0.705 0.74 5% HOLD 7.5 0.4 0.7 12.5

IREIT Global 0.730 0.77 5% HOLD 8.7 0.4 1.2 13.7

CapitaLand Retail China Trust 1.425 1.60 12% HOLD 7.2 0.4 0.8 19.2

Cache Logistics Trust 0.825 0.93 12% HOLD 9.5 0.4 0.8 21.5

Source: DBS Bank

Trump beneficiaries for Singapore stocks – Defence and US-EM currency exposure

Trump called for an increase in US military spending that could amount to US$500bn or more. If you watch your neighbour across the road arming up with more guns, ships and planes, would you also do the same or sit by and do nothing? The defence division of ST Engineering should benefit from increased military spending if more countries around the world also seek to beef up their own defences.

The USD is strengthening against EM currencies as inflation pressure mounts and on concerns about Trump’s trade

policies. This benefits companies with revenues based in USD and costs in EM currencies. CPO stocks Bumitama Agri and Indofood Agri are good examples with their revenues fully in USD while about half of their costs are in Rupiah. The USD has strengthened 2.3% against the Rupiah since 8 November. CPO stocks should also be underpinned by the rally in CPO price following news that palm oil inventories in Malaysia increased at a slower-than-expected pace.

Ceteris paribus, Venture Corp should also benefit from the USD strength and Ringgit weakness following Trump’s election victory. The USD has strengthened 1.8% against the


Wired Weekly

SGD, while the SGD has strengthened 2.15% against the Ringgit since 8 November. We estimate that a 2% rise in each

of the SGD/MYR and USD/SGD exchange rates will have a 1.5% and 2% positive impact on earnings respectively.

Potential Trump beneficiaries

Company Price

10 Nov 2016

Target Price

Target Return

PER 16 (x)

PER 17 (x)

EPS Growth 16 (%)

EPS Growth 17 (%)

Div Yield

16 (%)

Net Debt / Equity 16 (%)

P/BV 15 (x)

Bumitama Agri 0.730 0.99 36% 14.2 12.4 -5.2 15.3 0.0 0.6 1.7

Indofood Agri 0.480 0.58 21% 17.2 12.4 542.6 39.1 - 0.4 0.4

ST Eng 3.110 3.50 13% 19.8 18.6 -8.1 6.6 4.8 0.1 4.5

Venture Corp 9.710 10.90 12% 15.3 14.2 13.3 7.5 5.1 cash 1.4

Source: DBS Bank

Model Portfolio changes

1. Remove Japfa ($0.95) from Growth portfolio – The stock looks to have encountered resistance at $1 and is at risk of slipping into consolidation/correction trend. It has returned 16% since the inclusion on 18 August, outperforming STI’s 1% decline over the same period. This is the second profitable trade YTD. The first trade returned a 72% profit. In total, the stock has returned 88% profit YTD.

2. Remove Ezion ($0.32) from Growth portfolio – The stock has returned 16% since its inclusion on 29 September, outperforming STI’s 1.5% decline over the same period. O&G stocks could face uncertainty heading to the next OPEC meeting on 30 November as investors watch

whether OPEC can finalise an agreement to curb production. Furthermore, oil market watchers are also divided over where oil prices are headed following Trump’s election victory.

3. Remove AREIT ($2.25) from Balanced, Blue Chips and Dividend portfolios – The stock return a negative 8.5% since its inclusion on 18 August. . Rightfully, we had been paring down SREITs exposure in our portfolio over the past 3 months (MAGIC, CDL HT and Keppel REIT were removed since mid-August) and AREIT was our last remaining SREIT. Concerns about higher inflation and faster-rising interest rates should limit any near-term oversold bounces at $2.30 technical resistance.


Wired Weekly

Shanghai Composite Index Hang Seng Index Taiwan Index

Nikkei Index Dow Jones Industrials NASDAQ Index

USD/SGD USD/JPY Euro/USD

USD/RMB SGD/RMB AUD/SGD

Source: Datastream, DBS Bank

12 mth: -14.1% YTD: -11.6% 12 mth: 0.1% YTD: 2.3% 12 mth: 4.8% YTD: 7.3%

1 mth: 2.6% 1 Wk : 0.8% 1 mth: -6.0% 1 Wk : -1.7% 1 mth: -3.5% 1 Wk : -2.1%

2,500

2,800

3,100

3,400

3,700


Shanghai Comp Index

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000


Hang Seng Index

7,500

7,900

8,300

8,700

9,100

9,500


Taiwan Index

12 mth: -17.4% YTD: -14.6% 12 mth: 4.7% YTD: 6.7% 12 mth: 3.3% YTD: 4.9%

1 mth: -3.6% 1 Wk : -5.2% 1 mth: 1.4% 1 Wk : 3.5% 1 mth: -1.5% 1 Wk : 2.8%

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000


Nikkei 225 Index

15,000

15,500

16,000

16,500

17,000

17,500

18,000

18,500

19,000

19,500


Dow Jones

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400


Nasdaq

12 mth: -1.6% YTD: -1.3% 12 mth: -14.2% YTD: -12.2% 12 mth: 2.4% YTD: 0.8%

1 mth: 1.9% 1 Wk : 1.1% 1 mth: 2.0% 1 Wk : 2.3% 1 mth: -1.9% 1 Wk : -1.5%

1.30

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.40

1.42

1.44

1.46


usd/SGD

98

102

106

110

114

118

122

126


usd/JPY

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16


Euro/USD

12 mth: 6.6% YTD: 4.4% 12 mth: 8.8% YTD: 5.8% 12 mth: 5.3% YTD: 2.2%

1 mth: 1.1% 1 Wk : 0.3% 1 mth: -0.4% 1 Wk : -0.5% 1 mth: 1.3% 1 Wk : -0.4%

6.20

6.30

6.40

6.50

6.60

6.70

6.80

6.90


usd/RMB

4.40

4.50

4.60

4.70

4.80

4.90

5.00


sgd/RMB

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08


A$/SGD


Wired Weekly

Baltic Dry Index Volatility Index Fed Funds Rate

Brent Crude Oil Palm Oil Soya Oil

Aluminium Tin Steel

Copper Nickel Gold

Source: Datastream, DBS Bank

12 mth: 53.4% YTD: 99.6%

1 mth: 3.5% 1 Wk : 14.4%

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Baltic Dry Index

8

12

16

20

24

28

32


Volatility Index

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60


Fed Funds Rate

12 mth: -2.0% YTD: 28.9% 12 mth: 34.4% YTD: 28.6% 12 mth: 30.8% YTD: 13.3%

1 mth: -13.8% 1 Wk : -1.4% 1 mth: 6.0% 1 Wk : 0.6% 1 mth: 3.0% 1 Wk : -2.9%

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


Brent Crude OilUS$/barrel

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750


Palm OilUS$/ton

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38


Soya OilUS$/Ib

12 mth: 0.2% YTD: -2.3% 12 mth: 44.9% YTD: 46.3%

1 mth: -0.4% 1 Wk : 0.1% 1 mth: 5.8% 1 Wk : 1.9%

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650


AluminiumUS$/MT

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000


TinUS$/MT

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650


Steel USD/T

12 mth: 9.3% YTD: 14.7% 12 mth: 21.7% YTD: 31.3% 12 mth: 18.2% YTD: 21.3%

1 mth: 11.8% 1 Wk : 10.0% 1 mth: 10.1% 1 Wk : 12.2% 1 mth: 2.3% 1 Wk : -1.2%

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

5,600

5,800


CopperUS$/MT

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000


NickelUS$/MT

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400


GoldUS$/Ounce


Wired Weekly

Straits Times Index


Last PriceLast Day

V olA v g V ol for

the WeekRel ST I MTD

Rel ST I QT D

Rel ST I YTD

A ctual Mk t Cap

S/No. B'berg Code Stock Name Crncy 11-Nov -16 (000 Shrs) (000 Shrs) (%) (%) (%) (S$m)1 ST SP Singapore Telecommunications Ltd SGD 3.77 20,701 27,698 (3) (3) 5 60,1072 JM SP Jardine Matheson USD 56.80 103 333 (7) (4) 19 56,5563 DBS SP DBS Group Holdings Ltd SGD 16.13 3,781 13,327 8 7 (1) 40,9264 OCBC SP OCBC Bank SGD 8.58 3,196 6,710 1 1 (0) 35,8865 UOB SP United Overseas Bank Ltd SGD 18.87 1,037 4,622 0 2 (1) 30,8566 THBEV SP Thai Beverage PCL SGD 0.93 5,011 17,738 (4) (2) 37 23,3527 HKL SP Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd USD 6.55 939 1,633 (2) (6) (4) 21,4838 WIL SP Wilmar International Ltd SGD 3.30 4,552 7,648 (0) 4 15 20,8429 JCNC SP Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd SGD 40.25 419 292 (5) (4) 18 15,90810 CAPL SP CapitaLand Ltd SGD 3.05 6,665 11,710 (1) (3) (7) 12,92411 SIA SP Singapore Airlines Ltd SGD 9.77 697 2,286 (4) (5) (10) 11,54312 GENS SP Genting Singapore PLC SGD 0.88 13,390 66,812 17 19 16 10,51113 KEP SP Keppel Corp Ltd SGD 5.37 1,535 4,898 2 2 (15) 9,74814 GLP SP Global Logistics Properties Ltd SGD 2.05 8,384 42,008 15 12 (2) 9,60815 STE SP ST Engineering Ltd SGD 3.06 6,556 3,744 (2) (3) 6 9,51216 CIT SP City Developments Ltd SGD 8.52 737 1,585 0 (4) 15 7,74717 SGX SP Singapore Exchange Ltd SGD 7.03 971 2,692 (1) (3) (6) 7,52818 CT SP CapitaLand Mall Trust SGD 1.95 9,791 13,864 (6) (8) 3 6,89119 AREIT SP Ascendas REIT SGD 2.25 7,955 15,593 (5) (9) 1 6,39120 SPH SP Singapore Press Holdings Ltd SGD 3.69 3,744 4,106 (1) (1) (4) 5,89821 SATS SP SATS Ltd SGD 4.79 1,562 2,819 (1) (2) 27 5,33822 CD SP ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd SGD 2.46 5,579 8,351 (3) (11) (17) 5,30523 STH SP StarHub Ltd SGD 3.07 2,689 5,432 (9) (9) (15) 5,30424 HPHT SP Hutchison Port Holdings Trust USD 0.42 19,162 16,114 (6) (4) (18) 5,10025 GGR SP Golden Agri-Resoures Ltd SGD 0.38 13,552 27,313 (1) 9 14 4,83926 SCI SP Sembcorp Industries Ltd SGD 2.61 942 6,148 3 3 (12) 4,66327 UOL SP UOL Group Ltd SGD 5.66 804 957 (0) 3 (7) 4,56128 CCT SP CapitaLand Commercial Trust SGD 1.53 6,422 12,029 (3) (2) 15 4,51929 SIE SP SIA Engineering Co Ltd SGD 3.46 137 643 (6) (5) (4) 3,88030 YZJSGD SP Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd SGD 0.77 4,343 22,201 3 5 (28) 2,951


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At A Glance Currencies

Other Important Indicators

Important Dates (Singapore)

Announced Dividends and Capital Issues

Upcoming IPOs

Nil

Recent IPO Trading

Last Close

Pts chg

% Chg 1 wk

SG$/US$ 1.41 0.0 0.3

Yen/US$ 106.90 (0.3) (0.3)

US$/Euro 0.92 0.0 0.8

AUS$/US$ 1.32 0.0 0.1

Pound/US$ 1.26 0.0 0.4

Last Close

Pts chg 1wk

% Chg 1 wk

Gold 1229.43 (52.2) (4.1)

Crude Oil 43.41 (0.7) (1.5)

US$ Yield10-year 2.15 0.4 21.1

Event Pe riod Date

Retail Sales SA MoM Sep 15-Nov-16Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Sep 15-Nov-16Retail Sales YoY Sep 15-Nov-16Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY Oct 17-Nov-16Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Oct 17-Nov-16Electronic Exports YoY Oct 17-Nov-16GDP YoY 3Q F 21-Nov-16GDP SAAR QoQ 3Q F 21-Nov-16CPI YoY Oct 23-Nov-16CPI NSA MoM Oct 23-Nov-16CPI Core YoY Oct 23-Nov-16Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Nov-23 23-Nov-16Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Nov-23 23-Nov-16Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Nov-23 23-Nov-16Industrial Production YoY Oct 25-Nov-16Industrial Production SA MoM Oct 25-Nov-16Money Supply M1 YoY Oct 29-Nov-16Money Supply M2 YoY Oct 29-Nov-16Credit Card Billings Oct 29-Nov-16Credit Card Bad Debts Oct 29-Nov-16Bank Loans and Advances YoY Oct 29-Nov-16Purchasing Managers Index Nov 2-Dec-16

Electronics Sector Index Nov 2-Dec-16

Nikkei Singapore PMI Nov 4-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Dec-07 7-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Dec-07 7-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Dec-07 7-Dec-16

Foreign Reserves Nov 12-Dec-16

Manpower Survey 1Q 15-Dec-16

Retail Sales SA MoM Oct 15-Dec-16

Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Oct 15-Dec-16

Retail Sales YoY Oct 15-Dec-16

Non‐oil Domestic Exports YoY Nov 15-Dec-16

Non‐oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Nov 15-Dec-16

Electronic Exports YoY Nov 21-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Dec-21 21-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Dec-21 21-Dec-16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Dec-21 21-Dec-16

Company Ty pe Part iculars Ex Date Paid/ Pay ableASCENDAS INDIA TRUST DIV IDEND 010416 - 300916 SGD 0.0273 ONE-TIER TAX 14-Nov-16 28-Nov-16

HI-P INTERNATIONAL LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX 14-Nov-16 25-Nov-16JAPAN FOODS HOLDING LTD. DIV IDEND SGD 0.0075 ONE-TIER TAX 14-Nov-16 29-Nov-16

OVERSEAS EDUCATION LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.006875 ONE-TIER TAX 14-Nov-16 24-Nov-16

HUPSTEEL LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 15-Nov-16 25-Nov-16LOGISTICS HOLDINGS LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX 15-Nov-16 25-Nov-16

SINGAPORE POST LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 15-Nov-16 30-Nov-16KODA LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 16-Nov-16 06-Dec-16

EC WORLD REIT DIV IDEND 280716-300916 SGD 0.00991 17-Nov-16 28-Nov-16K1 VENTURES LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 21-Nov-16 05-Dec-16

LEE METAL GROUP LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX 21-Nov-16 09-Dec-16GENTING SINGAPORE PLC DIV IDEND SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX 23-Nov-16 07-Dec-16

SUNRIGHT LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX 23-Nov-16 02-Dec-16THAKRAL CORPORATION LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX 25-Nov-16 07-Dec-16

DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX 28-Nov-16 09-Dec-16CIVMEC LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.007 TAX EXEMPT 29-Nov-16 15-Dec-16

TRANSIT-MIXED CONCRETE LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX 01-Dec-16 23-Dec-16

TTJ HOLDINGS LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.017 ONE-TIER TAX 02-Dec-16 20-Dec-16KHONG GUAN FLOUR MILLING LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX 05-Dec-16 15-Dec-16

SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX 07-Dec-16 23-Dec-16SINGAPORE PRESS HLDGS LTD DIV IDEND SGD 0.08 ONE-TIER TAX 07-Dec-16 23-Dec-16

AVI-TECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX 13-Dec-16 29-Dec-16ASIAN PAY TELEVISION TRUST DIV IDEND 010716 - 300916 SGD 0.01625 TAX EXEMPT 14-Dec-16 23-Dec-16

FRASER AND NEAVE, LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX 31-Jan-17 16-Feb-17FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED DIV IDEND SGD 0.062 ONE-TIER TAX 31-Jan-17 16-Feb-17

Name IPO Pric ing

Closing Price

11.11.16 Sector L ist ing

DateShares

Of feredIPO Mkt

CapFrasers Logistics & Industrial Trust 0.89 0.925 Real Estate Investment Trusts 21/06/2016 1,427 1,270United Global Ltd 0.25 0.295 Specialty Chemicals 08/07/2016 283 71Advancer Global 0.22 0.360 Support Serv ices 11/07/2016 173 38Procurri Corp Ltd 0.56 0.470 Software & Computer Serv ices 20/07/2016 280 157Katrina Group Ltd 0.210 0.25 Travel & Leisure 26/07/2016 232 49Wong Fong Industries Ltd 0.230 0.29 Industrial Engineering 28/07/2016 235 54EC World REIT 0.810 0.74 Real Estate Investment Trusts 28/07/2016 778 630China J injiang Environment Holding 0.900 0.85 Electricity 03/08/2016 1217 1,095AGV Group Limited 0.220 0.20 Industrial Metals & Mining 26/08/2016 126 28HC Surgical 0.270 0.64 Healthcare Serv ices 03/11/2016 146 40


Wired Weekly

November 2016

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Companies, SGX

Mon Tues Wed Thu Fri

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust 4Q16 China Aviation Oil 3 Q 16 Genting Singapore 3Q 16 Singpost 2Q 17OUE Commercial REIT 3Q 16 CWT Ltd 3Q 16 SIA 2Q 17

SIA Engineering 2Q 17 First Ship Lease Trust 3Q 16 StarHub 3Q 16StarHub Ltd 316

Purchasing Managers IndexElectronics Sector IndexNikkei Singapore PMI (ann. 3Nov)

ARA Asset Management 3Q 16 Ascendas Hospitality Trust 2Q 17 Boustead Projects 2Q 17 Accordia Golf Trust 2Q 17Global Logistic Properties 2Q 17 Asian Pay Television Trust 3Q 16 Chuan Hup 1Q 17 BHG Retail REIT 3Q 16Perennial Real Estate Holdings 3Q 16 CapitaLand 3Q 16 City Developments 3Q 16 ComfortDelGro 3Q 16

CSE Global Ltd 3Q 16 Epic Gas 3Q 16 COSCO Corp 3Q 16Singapore Telecommunications 2Q 17 Ezion Holdings 3Q 16 Croesus Retail Trust 1Q 17

Far East Hospitality Trust 3Q 16 Haw Par Corp 3Q 16Fischer Tech 1H 17 Hong Leong Asia 3Q 16Geo Energy Resources 3Q 16 Mewah International 3Q 16Health Management 1Q 17 Saizen REIT 1Q 17Hiap Tong Corp 1H 17 United Engineers 3Q 16Hotel Properties 3Q 16Hour Glass 2Q 17Metech International 1Q 17New Silkroutes 1Q 17Old Chang Kee 2Q 17Stamford Land 2Q 17Straco Corp 3Q 16UOL Group 3Q 16VolitionRX 3Q 16Wilmar International 3Q 16Ying Li 3Q 16

Automobile COE Open Bid Cat AAutomobile COE Open Bid Cat B

Foreign Reserves Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E

Olam International 3Q 16 Kulicke & Soffa 4Q 16InterOil Corp 3Q 16Super Group 3Q 16Midas Holdings 3Q 16

Non-oil Domestic Exports YoYRetail Sales SA MoM boca spdes Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoMRetail Sales Ex Auto YoY Electronic Exports YoYRetail Sales YoY

BW LPG 3Q 16

CPI YoYCPI NSA MoMCPI Core YoYAutomobile COE Open Bid Cat A

GDP YoY Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B IndustGDP SAAR QoQ Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Indust

ASL Marine 1Q 17 Ezra Holdings 4Q 16

Money Supply M1 YoYMoney Supply M2 YoYCredit Card BillingsCredit Card Bad DebtsBank Loans and Advances YoY

1 2

14 15 16

10

3 4

11

17 18

24 25

28

7 8 9

21 22 23

29 30


Wired Weekly

DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends

Completed Date: 14 Nov 2016 13:31:31 Dissemination Date: 14 Nov 2016 14:53:57

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER

This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd,

its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated

in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS

Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively,

the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to

change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard

to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of

addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal

or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of

profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This

document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or

persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have

positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and

other banking services for these companies.

Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is under no obligation to update the information in this report.

This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.

The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and

assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on

which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual

results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED

UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and

(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein.

Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)

mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the

commodity referred to in this report.


Wired Weekly

DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research

department, has not participated in any public offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction

in the past twelve months and does not engage in market-making.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The DBS Group has procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of research reports. As of 14 Nov 2016, the analyst(s) and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst(s), do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment banking function is handled appropriately.

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a proprietary position in

Cambridge Industrial Trust, SPH REIT, Suntec REIT, ST Engineering, Indofood Agri Resources, Venture Corporation , Ezion Holdings, Ascendas

REIT, DBS Bank Ltd., UOB, OCBC, First Resources, Wilmar International, SingTel, StarHub, CapitaLand Mall Trust, CapitaLand Commercial

Trust, Jardine Cycle & Carriage, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Keppel REIT, Far East

Hospitality Trust, CapitaLand Retail China Trust, Cache Logistics Trust recommended in this report as of 31 Oct 2016.

2. DBS Bank Ltd does not market make in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report.

3. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a net long position

exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share capital in Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts,

CapitaLand Retail China Trust recommended in this report as of 31 Oct 2016.

4. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity

securities of CDL Hospitality as of 31 Oct 2016.

Compensation for investment banking services:

5. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12 months for

investment banking services from Suntec REIT, Japfa Ltd, Ezion Holdings, Ascendas REIT, DBS Bank Ltd., SingTel, StarHub, CapitaLand Mall

Trust, CapitaLand Commercial Trust, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Keppel REIT, OUE Commercial REIT,

Cache Logistics Trust as of 31 Oct 2016.

6. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for

Suntec REIT, Ezion Holdings, Ascendas REIT, DBS Bank Ltd., SingTel, StarHub, CapitaLand Mall Trust, CapitaLand Commercial Trust,

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Keppel REIT, Cache Logistics Trust in the past 12 months, as of 31 Oct 2016.

7. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a

manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further

information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document

should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

Directorship/trustee interests:

8. Peter Seah Lim Huat, Chairman of DBS Group Holdings, is a Director of Starhub as of 3 Aug 2016.

9. Nihal Vijaya Devadas Kaviratne CBE, a member of DBS Group Holdings Board of Directors, is a Director of Starhub as of 3 Aug 2016.

10. Peter Seah Lim Huat, Chairman of DBS Group Holdings, is a Director / Deputy Chairman of Singapore Airlines as of 3 Aug 2016.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

Hong Kong This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by or on behalf of, and is attributable to DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and/or by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission. Where this publication relates to a research report, unless otherwise stated in the research report(s), DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited is not


Wired Weekly

the issuer of the research report(s). This publication including any research report(s) is/are distributed on the express understanding that, whilst the information contained within is believed to be reliable, the information has not been independently verified by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited. This report is intended for distribution in Hong Kong only to professional investors (as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules promulgated thereunder.) For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Paul Yong (CE. No. ASE988) at [email protected].

Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.

Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

Thailand This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.

United Kingdom This report is produced by DBS Bank Ltd which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, ("DBSVUK"). DBSVUK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVUK. This communication is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments. Any investment activity following from this communication will only be engaged in with such persons. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on this communication.

Dubai

This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at PO Box 506538, 3rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.

United States This report was prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst. This report is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. This report may only be distributed to Major U.S. Institutional Investors (as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6) and to such other institutional investors and qualified persons as DBSVUSA may authorize. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.

Other jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions.

DBS Bank Ltd

12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore 018982 Tel. 65-6878 8888

e-mail: [email protected] Company Regn. No. 196800306E

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