singapore property weekly issue 84

7/30/2019 Singapore Property Weekly Issue 84

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Issue 84Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.
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CONTENTS

p2 Singapore Property Prices Reach

All-Time High, But

p7 Singapore Property News This Week

p11 Resale Property Transactions

(December 12 December 18)

Welcome to the 84th edition

of the Singapore Property

Weekly.

Hope you like it!

Mr. Propwise

FROM THE

EDITOR
mailto:[email protected]://www.propwise.sg/advertise/http://www.propwise.sg/advertise/mailto:[email protected]


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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 84

Page | 2Back to Contents

By Mr. Propwise

From the URAs recent flash estimate of the

4Q2012 Private Residential Property Price

Index (PPI), property prices have continued to

defy gravity and have even accelerated

quarter-on-quarter. The 4Q2012 URA PPI

flash estimate hit 211.9 and was up 1.8% ona quarter-on-quarter basis.

Singapore property prices at an all-time

high

Based on analysis of the URA numbers done

by the Singapore property research sitePropertyMarketInsights.com, at the current

levels the price index is 19.4% above the

previous 2Q2008 peak, and 16.8% above the

previous all time high in 2Q1996.

Singapore Property Prices Reach All-Time High, But
http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/http://propertymarketinsights.com/


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Figure 1 URA Property Price Index

(based on 4Q2012 flash estimate)

This estimated increase of 1.8% comes after

last quarters 0.6% quarter-on-quarter

increase, indicating an accelerating pace ofprice growth. It appears that the strength of

property demand, supported by low interest

rates, has outweighed concern over the

recession in Singapore, worrying global

economic situation especially with the

troubles in Europe and weak growth in the

US, and the dampening effect of multiple

rounds of government measures.

but is mainly supported by strength in

the Outside Central Region

The rate of price growth differed across the

various market segments. In the Core Central

Region, prices of non-landed private

residential properties increased by 0.8%versus an increase of 0.1% in the previous

quarter. Prices increased by 0.9% in the Rest

of Central Region (versus a 0.8% increase in

the previous quarter), and increased by a

remarkable 3.4% in the Outside Central

Region, an acceleration from the 1.0%increase in the previous quarter.

Do note that the URAs flash estimates are

compiled based on transaction prices given in

caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of


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the quarter. The actual second quarter

statistics will be updated four weeks later, and

past data have shown that the difference

could be significant, especially when the

change is small.

Will property prices go up or down in

2013?

Figure 2 Change in Property Price Index

(based on 4Q2012 flash estimate)

At the beginning of 2012, most analysts were

expecting a fall in prices, and were divided on

whether we would see a sharp decline as

during the 1997-1998 Asian Crisis and 2008-

2009 Financial Crisis, or whether it would bea more gradual decline as we saw during the

2000-2004 Post-Dotcom Bubble and SARs

era. Instead, based on the 4Q2012 estimates

the URA PPI is actually UP 2.8% in 2012, an

unexpected outcome versus the initial

predictions of a 5% to 15% decline in pricespredicted by most analysts.

The question now hanging on most peoples

minds is now: will property prices continue to

rise in 2013? Certainly the re-acceleration of

the PPI starting from the second quarter of

2012 was unexpected, but it should be notedthat the 2.8% property price increase in 2012

is already a deceleration from the 5.9% in

2011 and 17.6% in 2012.


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I believe that we will only see significant levels

of price declines if there is an external crisis

to cause a sense of panic, which we had in

each of the previous three declines (e.g.

Asian Crisis, Dotcom Bubble, Global Financial

Crisis). This is because the abundant global

liquidity situation and sustained low interest

rates will continue to support Singapore

property prices in the meantime.

Figure 3 Straits Times Index(till Dec 31,

2012)

Since reaching a low of 2,738 points in June,

the Straits Times Index (STI) has recovered to

3,167 points as of end December 2012, up

17.8% for the year and 3.6% versus the last

quarter. If you believe that the stock market is

a leading indicator for the property market,

then we could see continued support for

property prices in the coming quarters.

More cooling measures on the way?

The continued resilience of property prices

despite the previous six rounds of

government measures increases the

probability of a seventh round of property

measures to further cool sentiment. It is not

clear right now whether a potential new round

of cooling measures would comprise merely

of refinements to the current measures (e.g.

increase ABSD?) or be something brand new.

Will property prices keep going up? There area couple of ways to think about this question.


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First, based on the Property Market Cycle

Model ofPropertyMarketInsights.com, we are

in the Late Bull Stage of the market. This

means that the upside potential risk is limited

while the downside risk is significant. Second,while everyone believes that low interest

rates will continue to prop property prices up,

the large amount of upcoming supply could

depress prices if demand is not able to keep

up. Third, as Ive mentioned before,

unexpected crises (black swans) tend tooccur when we least expect it, especially

when everyone has become complacent.

Finally, I believe property prices cannot

continue to defy gravity forever, and that

investors looking to buy property in this

market should continue to be cautious.By Mr. Propwise, author of Timing the

Property Market.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 84
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Singapore Property This Week


Residential

Foreign demand to help recovery of luxury

property market

Despite the 17.5% fall in foreigners share of

purchases from 2011 to 6.2% in November

2012 as a result of the ABSD, the luxury

property market is expected to recover in

2013 as foreign investors return to the local

market. This is also helped by the low interest

rates, the market liquidity and possibly fall in

prices as a result of excess supply.

Furthermore, recent cooling measures such

as caps on loan tenures are unlikely to affectforeign investors can afford higher upfront

payment.

While foreign purchases in the CCR fell to

495 units in Q1-3 2012 from the 1,387 units in

2011, sales volume had increased since

developers are offering ABSD rebates to both

locals and foreigners. In Q1-Q3, 2,109 units

were sold to locals, 86% of the 2,459 units

sold in 2011 while the 489 units bought by

PRs were 74% of the 665 units sold in 2011.

Demand for prime properties in city-fringe

locations or the RCR may also increase since

the narrower price gap (25.4% in Q2 2012

compared to 32.3% in Q1 2011) between the

upper-end suburban and lower-end prime

markets has led to an increase in demand for

the latter.

19,792 new homes were sold in the first 10

months of 2012, breaking 2010s record of

16,292 units. This is attributed to the large

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY I 84


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number of shoebox units. With the restrictions

on the maximum number of units in non-

landed private housing projects outside the

Central Area, and buyer fatigue, this is likely

to fall to 15,000-18,000 units in 2013. Whilesome expect prices to remain stable with a

marginal 5% fall at most in 2013, others

expect an overall increase of up to 10%

(mass-market and luxury properties to

increase by 10-15% and 3-5% respectively),

citing increased land costs and low interestrates.

(Source: Business Times)

99-year leasehold Echelon launched for

sale

The private condominium project next toRedhill MRT Station at Alexandra Road is set

to bel launched at an average price of around

$1,700 psf. It is said that around 30-50% of

the 508 units in the 43-storey, twin-tower

development may be released. Units range

from studios to four-bedroom apartments and

penthouses.

Meanwhile, 800 e-applications had been

submitted for the 653-unit Forestville EC at

Woodlands Ave 5/Woodlands Drive 16. It is

being sold at an average of $700 psf, with

those under the deferred payment scheme

paying 3% higher. There are two to five-

bedroom units and 29 penthouses (1,550-

2,756 sq ft) in the 14-block project, with 30%of the units being dual-key units.


Estimates of housing supply in GLS

reflects smaller average unit sizes

The average GFA per unit for most private

condo sites in OCR and RCR in the 2013 H1

GLS programme has been reduced by 5 sq m

to 90 sq m and 80 sq m respectively

compared with the sizes in GLS sites in 2012.



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The average GFA per unit remained at 100 sq

m for EC sites in the OCR. This reflects the

increase in smaller units in new projects

which had led to the change in space

standards. Sites at Kim Tian Road, FaberWalk and Jalan Bunga Rampai, however,

have a larger average unit size since roads

surrounding the sites could not support high

traffic flows.


HDB resale market expected to do well in

2013

HDB resale prices are expected to increase

by 3-8% in 2013, and COVs are similarly

expected to rise by 5-10% next year.

However, if there are new cooling measuresin the market, there may be a fall of around

3% instead. In the first three quarters of 2012,

resale prices of HDB flats climbed by 3.9%

and the year could end with a 5-7% growth.

COVs continued to climbed after stabilising

initially in the first two quarters to $34,000.

Volume of resale HDB transactions fell from

25,000 in 2011 to 19,000 in the first three

quarters of 2012, a result of the extension ofthe Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) and

the requirement owners of private property to

sell them if they buy HDB flats, both of which

discourage upgraders from selling their flats.

Low interest rates, and the increase in

demand for resale flats from singles bothfactors for well-performing resale market is

likely to remain in 2013. Furthermore, the

large supply of BTO flats also meant that it

will be another eight years (three for

construction, five for MOP) before the flats

are available for resale. Owners with bothprivate housing and HDB flats may also sell

the flats if rental yields are low. However, the

rising cost of mass market private housing

may discourage upgraders, constraining the



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supply of resale flats.


Commercial

3 industrial sites released for public tender

The first is a 30-year leasehold 0.35 ha site

located in Ubi Avenue 4. Zoned for Business 1

development, the site with a 2.5 plot ratio is

expected to be popular since it is located near

the Tai Seng and MacPherson MRT stations.

It is expected to attract five to 10 bids with a

top bid of $110-160 psf ppr.

The second is a 30 year-leasehold 3.96-ha

site located at Tuas South Avenue 10. The

site is zoned for Business 2 development with

a 1.4 plot ratio. It is likely to attract three toeights bids with a top bid of $50 to $95 psf

ppr.

Also zoned for Business 2 development is the

third site - a 22-year-and-five-month

leasehold 0.3-ha parcel located at Tuas South

Street 8 with a plot ratio of 1.0. Five to 18 bids

are expected for the plot, with a top bid of $55

and $70 psf ppr.

The tender closes on Feb 7 at 11am.


30-year leasehold Woodlands industrial

plot available on reserve list

The 3.9-ha site at Woodlands Ave 12 is zoned

Business 1 with a 1,055,645.3 sq ft maximum

GFA and a height restrictions of 61 m above

mean sea level. The site is unlikely to be

triggered, given its size and its proximity to an

ample upcoming supply of sites. However, if

triggered, the site is likely to be triggered at

$50-$55 psf ppr and attract four to eight

bidders with a top bid of $110-$126 psf ppr

when launched.




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Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Dec 12 Dec 18

Postal

DistrictProject Name

Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

2 ICON 581 1,133,000 1,949 993 MERAPRIME 1,173 1,920,000 1,636 99

3 CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM 947 1,350,000 1,425 99

3 CENTRAL GREEN CONDOMINIUM 1,292 1,695,000 1,312 99

3 QUEENS 1,410 1,850,000 1,312 99

3 EMERALD PARK 926 1,178,000 1,273 99

3 THE METROPOLITAN CONDOMINIUM 1,421 1,800,000 1,267 99

4 THE BERTH BY THE COVE 1,905 3,150,000 1,653 99

5 PARC IMPERIAL 398 700,000 1,758 FH

5 PARC IMPERIAL 398 690,000 1,733 FH5 ONE-NORTH RESIDENCES 592 982,000 1,659 99

5 HERITAGE VIEW 1,464 1,850,000 1,264 99

5 GOLD COAST CONDOMINIUM 1,453 1 ,500,000 1,032 FH

5 WESTCOVE CONDOMINIUM 1,249 9 45,000 757 99

7 THE BENCOOLEN 980 1,340,000 1,368 99

8 PRISTINE HEIGHTS 732 1,032,000 1,410 FH

9 THE SUITES AT CENTRAL 818 1,980,000 2,420 FH

9 WATERMARK ROBERTSON QUAY 1,733 2,845,000 1,642 FH

9 THE QUAYSIDE 1,367 2,070,000 1,514 99

9 GRANGE HEIGHTS 2,713 4,080,000 1,504 FH

10 GRANGE RESIDENCES 2,583 6,888,888 2,667 FH

10 TANGLIN PARK 1,033 2,220,000 2,148 FH

10 MILL POINT 538 1,020,000 1,895 999

10 GALLOP GABLES 2,669 4,600,000 1,723 FH

10 PINEWOOD GARDENS 1,636 2,800,000 1,711 FH

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

10 THE SIXTH AVENUE RESIDENCES 1,292 2,080,000 1,610 FH10 DUCHESS CREST 1,087 1,475,000 1,357 99

10 THE LEGACY 2,605 2,980,000 1,144 FH

11 DUNEARN SUITES 409 900,000 2,200 FH

11 RESIDENCES @ EVELYN 2,250 4,250,000 1,889 FH

11 SOLEIL @ SINARAN 936 1,755,000 1,874 99

11 TEN @ SUFFOLK 1,087 1,608,000 1,479 FH

11 NEWTON LODGE 1,249 1,750,000 1,402 FH

11 NOVENA LODGE 700 942,000 1,346 FH

11 ADAM PLACE 915 1,228,500 1,343 FH11 THE ARCADIA 3,714 3,800,000 1,023 99

12 CHELSEA GROVE 958 1,138,000 1,188 FH

12 THE CITRINE 1,141 1,250,000 1,096 FH

14 SIMS DORADO 861 930,000 1,080 FH

14 SMAILING COURT 1,184 1,268,000 1,071 FH

14 ASTORIA PARK 1,001 990,000 989 99

14 SIMSVILLE 1,528 1,445,000 945 99

14 WINDY HEIGHTS 2,476 2,280,000 921 FH

14 THE ALCOVE 1,238 1,065,000 860 99

15 THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER 1,604 2 ,700,000 1,683 FH

15 GRAND DUCHESS AT ST PATRICK'S 1,356 2,080,000 1,534 FH

15 THE AMBROSIA 1,216 1,580,000 1,299 FH

15 THE MONTAGE 657 850,000 1,295 FH

15 COSTA RHU 1,399 1,688,000 1,206 99

15 MELROSE VILLE 872 1,046,000 1,200 FH



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NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale propertytransactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore LandAuthority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after apurchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

Postal


Area

(sqft)

Transacted

Price ($)

Price

($ psf)Tenure

15 EMERY POINT 1,324 1,525,000 1,152 FH

15 CASA AROMA 1,281 1,250,000 976 FH

15 CASTLE LOFT 1,173 1,130,000 963 FH

15 NEPTUNE COURT 1,270 1,080,000 850 99

17 RIZ HAVEN 452 570,000 1,261 946

17 AVILA GARDENS 1,755 1,460,000 832 FH18 SAVANNAH CONDOPARK 1,453 1,400,000 963 99

18 MELVILLE PARK 990 795,000 803 99

18 MELVILLE PARK 1,345 965,000 717 99

18 TAMPINES COURT 1,711 1,090,000 637 101

19 KENSINGTON PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,582 1,900,000 1,201 999

19 KENSINGTON PARK CONDOMINIUM 2,250 2 ,070,000 920 999

19 HOUGANG GREEN 1,163 800,000 688 99

21 THE CASCADIA 990 1,760,000 1,777 FH

21 THE CASCADIA 883 1,542,000 1,747 FH

21 MEADOWLODGE 1,432 1,580,000 1,104 99

21 BROOKVALE PARK 2,422 2,380,000 983 999

22 LAKESIDE TOWER 1,970 1,032,000 524 99

23 PARK NATURA 2,314 2,303,000 995 FH

23 HAZEL PARK CONDOMINIUM 2,734 2,600,000 951 999

23 CASHEW HEIGHTS CONDOMINIUM 1,658 1 ,500,000 905 999

23 NORTHVALE 1,087 915,000 842 99

23 THE LINEAR 1,884 1,410,000 749 999

23 PARKVIEW APARTMENTS 1,163 838,000 721 99

26 CASTLE GREEN 1,345 1,180,000 877 99

27 ORCHID PARK CONDOMINIUM 1,249 880,000 705 99

28 MIMOSA PARK 1,755 1 ,470,000 838 FH
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