singapore an analysis of suburban retail rents

Explaining rEntal variancE within SingaporES Suburban rEtail Supply

CEM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

IP 2/11

EXPLAINING RENTAL VARIANCE WITHIN SINGAPORES SUBURBAN RETAIL SUPPLYAn information paper by Dougie Crichton

CEM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES

May 2011

abouT The auThorDougie Crichton joined the Pamfleet group in 2008 and currently heads their Singapore office. Dougie graduated from the University of the West of england, Bristol, in 1995 and is a member of the royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. He spent five years in the UK working for gvA grimley and King Sturge before relocating to Hong Kong in 2000. Dougie worked as a Senior Asset manager and general manager for Hongkong Land for over seven years in Hong Kong, Bangkok and Jakarta. He obtained a rICS Postgraduate Diploma in Property Investment in 2005 and an mBA in Construction and real estate in 2009. His dissertation was awarded a British Council of Shopping Centres educational Trust retail Award 2009.

inTroduCTionSingapore is one of the worlds more prosperous and dynamic economies. In 2009, its gDP per capita of S$53,143 exceeded that of its Asian peers and, according to the International monetary fund, ranked higher than the UK. Asian retail markets have benefited from the regional economic upswing and continued to strengthen through rising consumer confidence, an improved employment market and growth in regional tourism. Luxury and business fashion is a clear growth story in Asia, but what about the less attractive but more practical necessity spending for comparatively wealthy Singaporeans?

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IP 2/11Explaining rental variance within Singapores suburban retail supply

The invesTigaTionThe authors initial analysis of sampled neighbourhood centre (NC) tenancy schedules identified that national food and beverage (f&b) and retail operators are paying over 100% rental differential in highdensity suburban Housing Development Board (HDB) areas. This research paper attempts to answer why there is such variance in rentals.

singapura The Lion CitySingapore became an independent island state in 1965. Presently it has a land size of 274 square miles (710km2) and a population 4.8 million people. With 17,650 people per square mile (6,814 per km2), it is one of the most densely populated islands in the world. London has a population of 7.2 million people living within 610 square miles (1,580km2): 11,803 people per square mile (4,557 per km2); a population density approximately 30% lower than Singapore. Since the 1950s, a steady increase in Singapores population has required the adoption of a new town planning concept overseen by the HDB, the countrys public housing authority. Today, 84% of Singaporeans live in HDB flats. The island has a tropical rainforest climate with an average temperature range of 22C to 34C, high humidity and a daily average rainfall of 2.36 inches (60mm). These characteristics have formed a unique environment for citizens and created specific demands on the provision of retail, including f&b.

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sampLe neighbourhood CenTresThe focus of this investigation is on NCs, 10,750ft to 150,000ft (1,00014,000m2). The International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC) describes NCs as designed to provide convenience shopping for the day to day needs of consumers in the immediate neighbourhood (ICSC 2004: 2). The author identified four NC assets located in three HDB estates. All four NCs are privately owned, with a family concern owning both Beta and Charlie, and the other two under individual ownership.

NAme Alpha Plaza* Beta Plaza* Charlie Plaza* Delta Plaza*

HDB eSTATe Ang mo Kio Ang mo Kio Clementi Toa Payoh

NeT LeTTABLe AreA fT 31,123 36,956 26,581 30,429 Source: Authors compilation

* Project names changed for confidentiality reasons

media and misinformaTionJones Lang LaSalle estimates island-wide retail space per capita at 6.28ft, compared to Hong Kongs ratio of 13.2ft per capita. Singapore has room to expand its retail stock further, based on its current population. The local media regularly highlight retailers concerns over rising retail rentals increasing their operating costs and squeezing their profit margins. Comparatively, Singapores prime retail rentals are substantially lower than in Hong Kong. CBres Asia market review Q4 2010 highlights Singapore prime retail rents at US$23.60 per ft per month, with prime Hong Kong retail at US$66.10 per ft per month. A comparison between Singapore and Hong Kongs suburbs again emphasises the trend, with rents at US$22.70 per ft per month (Singapore) and US$38.80 per ft per month (Hong Kong). market practice: Typical market practice in Singapore is for a retail lease term of two to three years. The structure of the preferred lease is triple net, which means the tenant is liable for all property taxes, building insurance and maintenance costs. Depending on the influence and strength of the landlord, the preference is for the tenant to pay a fixed base rent plus a percentage of sales turnover. The flagship retail reIT, Capitamall Trust, stated in its 2009 Annual report that occupancy costs remained healthy at 16.4%.

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singapore LoCaL faCTsmicro: The HDB Sample Household Survey 2003 highlighted HDB home ownership at 97.1% with low housing cost, estate facilities, location and transportation as the most liked aspects. The proportion of the HDB population patronising facilities (market/supermarket, shops, hawker centre, eating house/ coffee shop/food court) on a weekly basis ranged from 60% for the various eating establishments to 64% for shops and over 85% for markets/supermarkets. shopping choice behaviour: Ibrahim (2002) summarised research which found that the majority of shoppers (81.9%) patronised the shopping centres at NCs for their routine major grocery shopping, with shoppers preferring to use a regional centre rather than the central, traditional Orchard area. Travel factors such as effort, comfort and length of shopping trips, are more important than shopping centre characteristics when choosing their shopping destination for major grocery shopping.

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souTh easT asia foCused reTaiL sTudiesSimilarities between Hong Kong and Singapore suburban retail were identified; namely higher population density, reliance on public transport (rather than private car) and differences in shop size. Chau and Yu highlighted the importance of street level pedestrian flows and the fact that locational characteristics are more important than physical characteristics, identifying a new genre of retailers, an independent, small scale retailer selecting a property with micro location and physical characteristics to suit its business (2000: 2).

QuanTiTaTive anaLysis of renTaL evidenCeThe author enjoyed full disclosure of the sample NCs tenancy schedules. The classification of tenants was broken down into two groups: food and non-food. In describing the NC tenants, the f&b offering was primarily for food catering through to restaurants. Common non-food subgroups in the sample were clothing, shoes, hairdressers, nail salons, massage/spas, mobile phone accessories and opticians. A simple observation was that food operators, by average, occupy less than 50% of lettable space and pay a lower average rent than non-food operators. Capitamall Trust (CmT)s 2010 Annual report states that, within its own portfolio, f&B remained the largest contributor to gross rental income at 25.4% of the total portfolio. f&B was the second largest in terms of net lettable area at 16.3% (CmT 2010: 27). It is interesting to note that CmTs evidence conflicts with the NC data analysis. SUmmArY Of INITIAL TeNANCY SCHeDULe ANALYSIS Average ground floor units range from 426ft to 818ft. Average gross ground floor rents range from S$9.65 per ft to S$40.55 per ft. food retailers occupy 44.56% of lettable space and contribute 43.75% of income. Non-food retailers occupy 55.45% of lettable space and contribute 56.25% of income. Non-food rents are 18.88% higher than food rents. Source: Authors compilation Three advanced methods of analysis were used to reduce the bias from mean averaging. The correlation coefficient, which determines the degree to which the movements of two variables are associated, in this case size and rent, was selected. Basic averaging is vulnerable to distortion owing to outliers and, by adopting the interquartile range, the outliers are removed. finally, the coefficient of the multiple of determination (r), which is the amount of variability in rent explained by size, was used.

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ADvANCeD QUANTITATIve ANALYSIS AverAge UNIT SIze fT AverAge grOSS reNT S$ 9.65 40.55 18.04 15.69 2ND QUArTILe UNIT SIze fT 654 341 388 367 2ND QUArTILe reNT Per fT S$ 11 42 21 17

NC

COrreLATION COeffICIeNT

r %

Alpha Beta Charlie Delta

794 426 818 480

0.427 0.581 0.792 0.678

29.16 33.84 74.55 46.31

Source: Authors compilation focusing on rental by product group, the table below supports the trends identified earlier. meDIAN reNTALS BY PrODUCT grOUP 2ND QUArTILe reNT Per fT S$ 11 2ND QUArTILe reNT Per fT S$ 11.50 10.50 42 35.00 42.00 21 21.00 22.00 17 15.50 18.00 DIffereNCe % 4.5 (4.5) (16.67) 0 0 4.76 (8.82) 5.55

NC

CLASSIfICTION

Alpha

food Non-food food Non-food food Non-food food Non-food

Beta

Charlie

Delta

Source: Authors compilation Analysis of the rental schedules highlighted an interquartile range from 341ft to 654ft per ground floor tenant. monthly rents vary from S$11 per ft to S$42 per ft, with a noticeable difference between product groups in terms of occupancy and rental contribution.

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QuaLiTaTive seCondary researChThe initial analysis of the rental schedules provided a good balance of qualitative observations that would form the basis of the semi-structure interviews with the stakeholders: landlords, retailers and agents. Landlords: Three general areas were of genuine interest. first, the internal decision making within the landlord stakeholder company regarding leasing matters. Was the motivation to maximise rents or a belief in optimising tenant mix for the benefit of the whole NC? Second, the typical landlord approach to retailers, from the authors experience, is usually one of conflict. How does a landlord agree on the rental that a retailer is prepared to pay? Does a landlord understand the retailers operational business model or exploit an operators expansion strategy? Third, the role of agents in Singapore is perhaps misunderstood. What are the expectations of agents from private landlords? Does a landlord look towards an agent in terms of providing comparable rental information or does the landlord motivate the agent through commission or through a longer-term relationship? All three landlords declined to be interviewed. Undeterred, the author successfully approached and interviewed senior management individuals from the HDB, CapitaLand and Hongkong Land. STAKeHOLDer: LANDLOrDS interview observations: Priorities are increasing footfall and avoiding vacancy. Branded tenants are regarded as anchors. Basic awareness of rent affordability by product group. Poor intelligence on comparable rental evidence. Passive attitude towards leasing agents. Source: Authors compilation retailers: Although only two candidates were secured, these particular interviews were rewarding as their businesses operated five branded food and non-food group businesses. The candidates were familiar with the authors sample of NCs and, in fact, were tenants in two of the four assets (Beta and Charlie).

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The main themes of the interview touched upon selection of store location, determining rental, awareness of behaviour towards shopping centre/rental theory, decision making regarding operating margins, and the use of retail agents. STAKeHOLDer: reTAILerS interview observations: A fixed rent preferred by retailers. Store location dependent on existing stores and competitors. Decision making based on comparable sales and expected hit rate. Increase number of stores to increase sales. Six-year period allowed to write off fit-out costs. Agents used for introductory purposes only. Source: Authors compilation agents: The role of the agent was broken down into three subgroups. The first group, which specialised in leasing, was easy to identify. The author approached the leasing agent, Joanna Lee Property Consultants, of the Beta project in Clementi for interview. It was essential to know how the agent managed the landlords expectations of rental compared with those proposed by the potential tenant. The second area for discussion was the research work carried out by DTz Debenham Thorpe, which releases regular market Watch updates that discuss retail trends in Singapore. It was felt that a sector overview from a research expert would be a positive contribution.

Alpha

Beta

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finally, it was essential to interview a valuer who is instrumental in advising banks for lending purposes as to the value of suburban retail assets. Colliers was selected, as it is used by lenders and the HDB for the setting of rental rates for vacant units. STAKeHOLDer: AgeNTS interview observations: generally undervalued by landlords and retailers. Preference for landlords and retailers to negotiate directly. value add potential for market research and retail mix positioning. resistance by landlords to pay commission for securing new tenants. Subjective approach to market value valuations. Industry professionals would prefer to work for a landlord than an agency firm. Source: Authors compilation summary: The behaviour of a typical NC landlord appears to be largely independent of other landlords in the surrounding area. retailers tend to exploit the NC landlords lack of information and secure units with different levels of rent. The role of the agent is an informal and irregular part of the leasing process owing to the internal conflicts which result from landlords employing in-house leasing managers.

Charlie

Delta

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ConCLusionsSingapore has characteristics of land scarcity, high population density, dependency on public transport, comparative underprovision of retail space per capita and a local business culture. These factors create a unique environment where, owing to limited supply, there will always be excess demand by retailers. Quantitative and qualitative research led to the following conclusions. macroeconomic factors: Three key factors were identified: gDP, inflation and interest rates. All three factors have an effect on consumer confidence and behaviour. However, the author is in agreement with the opinion of Hardin and Wolverton (2000: 319) that, at the NC level, macroeconomic variables had little effect on aggregate retail returns. micro-market characteristics: The relative size of Singapore and town planning policy allow high accuracy on household information, such as household size, age and ethnic groups, income and savings ratios. This data is used extensively by retailers to identify their target customers, who show a strong demand for staple goods, creating an efficient local retail mix with a loyal customer base. demand, supply, locational and physical characteristics: Singapore retail stock per capita is 6.28ft, Hong Kong is 13.2ft. Supply will continue to be absorbed owing to the underprovision of stock; however, the location in relationship to public transport is of paramount importance. The retailers interviewed repeatedly stressed the importance of proximity to major public transport hubs, while securing a unit with high footfall is a major factor in decision making. Theory on rent analysis and forecasting: On a practical level, multiple regression analysis is the key to understanding the variables which affect rental values on HDB estates. A basic regression analysis was carried out, but a more advanced multiple regression analysis would have been useful, particularly quantifying locational characteristics. retailer business model: gerbich (1998) states that the rental of retail space is sensitive to sales volume. Several problems face the retailer; in a relatively small market there is familiarity of retail stock, so the criteria of selection, location and hit rate can force greater risks to be taken with new stock. Such trends do push up rents, and this is evident with the Beta NC rental analysis. The retailer is also left with the problem of increasing the number of stores to increase sales turnover, but at some stage the brand will reach saturation and the cannibalisation of neighbouring stores will affect turnover. Typical business practice: In securing a retail unit, the preference is for direct dialogue between landlord and tenant. This is a business culture issue, as there is a desire to avoid paying an agency commission fee to a third party. The mechanism for rental will be a fixed S$ per ft because of the difficulty of trusting monthly sales figures provided by retailers and the lack of a cost-effective electronic point-of-sale system.

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stakeholders: The author was declined interviews with the sample NC owners and instead relied on the feedback of branded landlords. These were primarily concerned with generating footfall and avoiding the negative consequences of visible vacant units. All the sample NCs have vacant units (either ground or second floors). It appears that vacant units are not treated as a priority unless a satisfactory rental is achievable. The next observation is the inherent conflict between landlord and tenant. The landlord wants a fair, market rent for the unit, while the retailer wants to minimise the rent to maximise margins. The landlord has a basic awareness of affordability by product groups, but is uncertain as to the exact rent, owing to poor intelligence from the rental market. The reluctance of independent landlords to communicate and share rental information creates a negative effect on achieving current market rentals. There is some agreement on what a product groups percentage of sales should be paying, and this can be translated into a higher fixed rent. A landlord is of the opinion that a retailer should pay rent equivalent to 12% to 15% of turnover, and an f&b outlet 7% to 8%. retailers will accept 10% to 12% of expected turnover and f&b operators from 12% to 15%. The disparity with perceived f&b turnover margins could be explained by the fact that interviewed landlords were talking about mid-market restaurants, whereas the retailers were discussing fast food and lower-end f&b operators. According to agents, their role in the leasing process is undervalued. Landlords would benefit from the leasing agents market knowledge; however, they tend to neglect the value of agency advice. It was observed that agents do not provide any quantitative analysis to smaller landlords regarding rental variance in their assets. In summary, landlords and retailers rely on agents for introductory purposes only. summary: The rental variance identified is primarily due to two main factors: location and the landlords business culture. The maxim, location, location, location, is very relevant to Singapores high-density suburbs, particularly when in close proximity to public transport or suburban shopping malls. There appears to be minimal sharing of rental information between smaller, private landlords. This problem is compounded by the fact that in-house leasing managers are not expected to use the services of agents. This behaviour is common within hierarchical local businesses where a single, independent approach can create an inward-looking culture. The refusal to engage agents passes the competitive advantage on to the retailer. The observed variance benefits the retailer. With such poor communication among smaller landlords, retailers can negotiate the fixed rent that they want to pay rather than accept a rent that they can afford to pay. Therefore, typical landlord behaviour has a negative impact on the value of NCs as an asset class.

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reCommendaTions for furTher researChfurther investigation into regression analysis would allow more variables, e.g. the impact of gDP, real disposable income, household savings ratio and interest rates, to be considered. These could reveal other factors that affect rental variance. Quantifying the importance of location would be extremely valuable. The above-average rental rates in the Beta NC are remarkable. retailers are of the opinion that the Beta NC is overrented. It would be useful to monitor the lease renewal phase when negotiations begin in 2011 and to observe whether the current rents are sustainable.

referenCes and furTher readingCBre (2010) Asia Market View Q4 2010, CBre research, Asia. Capitamall Trust (2010) Consistent Performance, Sustainable Growth, report to Unitholders. Chau K W and Yu C K (2000) The determination of street level retail shop prices in Hong Kong, paper delivered at the Pacific rim real estate Society Conference, Sydney, 2327 January. Competition Commission Singapore (2008) market study on retail rental space in Singapore; Summary of Study and CCS, Views, 31 October. DTz research (2009) Temporary oversupply, long term sustainability in the Singapore retail market, Research Alert, may. gerbich m (1998) Shopping center rentals: An empirical analysis of the retail tenant mix, Journal of Real Estate Research, 15(3): 283296. Hardin g H and Wolverton m L (2000) micro-market determinants of neighbourhood center rental rates, Journal of Real Estate Research, 20(3): 299322. Housing and Development Board (2003) Public Housing in Singapore: Residents Profile and Physical Aspects, HDB Sample Household Survey, 2003. Ibrahim m f (2002) Shopping choice behaviour in Singapore: Suburban malls rule, Centre for real estate Studies (CreS), Department of real estate, National University of Singapore, 2(22): 8. International Council of Shopping Centers, ICSC Shopping Center Definitions, 2004.

phoTographs aCknowLedgemenTsCover and header image Wolfgang Sladkowski 2009 www.aseanmobile.mobi Pages 89 Dougie Crichton 2011

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singapore an analysis of suburban retail rents

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