-simulation to devise evacuation strategies · introduction-hospital management are responsible for...

23
Using Micro-Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies Aoife Hunt, Ph.D. October 5, 2016

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Page 1: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Usin

g M

icro

-Sim

ula

tio

n t

o

Devis

e E

vacu

atio

n S

trate

gie

s

Ao

ife H

un

t, P

h.D

.

Octo

ber

5, 2

01

6

Page 2: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Intr

od

ucti

on

-1800 f

ire

s in

UK

ho

sp

itals

each

year.

-Larg

e,

vu

lnera

ble

po

pu

latio

ns r

eq

uir

ing

co

nti

nu

ing

care

.

-M

ob

ilit

y im

pair

me

nts

an

d a

sso

cia

ted

mo

bili

ty e

qu

ipm

en

t.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 2

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 3: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Intr

od

ucti

on

-H

igh

ly c

om

ple

x s

pace

s.

-D

ep

en

den

cy o

n s

taff

pro

ce

du

res

for

evacu

atio

n.

-H

igh

sta

ff t

urn

over

an

d

ch

alle

ng

es w

ith

tra

inin

g.

-L

ive

dri

lls a

re im

pra

cti

cal,

co

stly,

an

d a

rgu

ab

ly

un

eth

ical.

-U

pco

min

g d

em

og

rap

hic

sh

ift

will

mean

mo

re e

lderl

y

patien

ts a

nd

mo

re p

eo

ple

with

red

uced

mo

bili

ty (

PR

M).

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 3

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 4: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Intr

od

ucti

on

-H

osp

ital m

an

ag

em

en

t are

re

sp

on

sib

le f

or

evacu

atio

n

pla

nn

ing

.

-P

rog

ressiv

e h

ori

zo

nta

l e

vacu

ati

on

is t

yp

ically

pre

scri

bed

.

-P

ost-

incid

en

t an

aly

ses h

ave h

igh

ligh

ted

th

e n

ee

d t

o r

evis

e

cu

rren

t p

roced

ure

s.

-M

ove

me

nt

assis

tan

ce

is v

ital

in a

n e

merg

en

cy.

-A

vaila

bili

ty a

nd

tra

inin

g in

mo

ve

me

nt

de

vic

es h

as n

ot

been

co

nsis

ten

t, o

r su

ffic

ien

t.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 4

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 5: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Au

gu

st

9,

20

16

Page 6: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Wh

at’

s m

issin

g?

•T

he

tim

e r

eq

uir

ed

fo

r p

roce

du

res a

nd

th

e p

hysic

al

imp

act

of re

pe

ate

d p

atie

nt co

llectio

n is n

ot

we

ll

un

de

rsto

od

.

•S

imu

latio

n m

od

els

can

pro

vid

e in

sig

ht,

bu

t cu

rre

ntly

do

no

t e

ffe

cti

ve

ly r

ep

rese

nt

the

assis

ted

evacu

atio

n

of P

RM

.

•A

naly

sis

is n

ee

de

d t

o s

ub

sta

nti

ate

th

e c

urr

en

t

ide

as t

hat

the

evacu

atio

n s

eq

ue

nce

sh

ou

ld e

ith

er

be

gin

or

en

d w

ith

th

e m

ost

cri

tical p

atie

nts

.

•T

he

re is a

ne

ed

to

mo

de

l assis

ted

evacu

atio

n, n

ot

on

ly fo

r h

osp

itals

, b

ut fo

r all b

uild

ing

s w

ith

PR

M.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 6

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 7: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Ou

r o

bje

cti

ve

s

•W

hat in

flu

en

ce

s t

he

ou

tco

me

of h

osp

ital evacu

atio

n?

•W

hat d

ata

an

d m

od

ellin

g d

eve

lop

me

nts

are

req

uir

ed

?

•H

ow

do

mo

vem

en

t assis

t d

evic

es p

erf

orm

in

th

e

ho

rizo

nta

l an

d v

ert

ical e

vacu

ati

on

of

PR

M?

•H

ow

can

th

ese d

ata

be u

sed

to

co

mp

are

th

e

pe

rfo

rman

ce

of m

ovem

en

t d

evic

es in

evacu

atio

n?

•H

ow

can

mo

vem

en

t d

evic

es b

e e

xp

licit

ly m

od

elle

d?

Tri

al D

ata

An

aly

sis

Perf

orm

an

ce

Evalu

atio

n

Th

eo

retical

Mo

delli

ng

Testin

g a

nd

Veri

ficatio

n

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 7

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 8: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Data

co

lle

cti

on

or

or

or

or

Opera

tors

on s

tairs

Opera

tors

on s

tairs

Opera

tors

on s

tairs

Opera

tors

on s

tairs

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 8

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 9: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Data

co

lle

cti

on

•In

vestig

ate

d t

he t

ime

re

qu

ire

d f

or

ho

sp

ital evacu

atio

n

pro

ced

ure

s a

nd

im

pact

of re

peate

d p

atien

t co

llectio

n.

•3

2 t

rials

testin

g f

ou

r d

evic

es o

ver

two

days, th

rou

gh

an

11 s

tore

y h

osp

ital.

•D

evic

e o

pera

tors

were

exp

ert

man

ual

han

dle

rs.

•Tw

o a

cto

r “P

RM

s”.

•F

ou

r te

am

s o

f U

niv

ers

ity G

hen

t p

art

icip

an

ts:

two

team

s

with

male

op

era

tors

an

d t

wo

team

s w

ith

fe

male

op

era

tors

.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 9

Ped

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 10: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

VerticalHorizontalPreparation

Data

co

lle

cti

on O

cto

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

0P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 11: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Data

co

lle

cti

on O

cto

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

1P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 12: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Sta

ir D

escent S

peed

Pre

para

tion T

ime

Horizonta

l Speed

68 s

ecs

(63

-74

)

29 s

ecs

(24

-32

)

35 s

ecs

(32

-40

)

53 s

ecs

(46

-60

)

88 s

ecs

(61

-12

0)

36 s

ecs

(30

-42

)

48 s

ecs

(41

-52

)

78 s

ecs

(67

-86

)

1.0

9 m

/s(0

.99

-1.2

3)

1.5

5 m

/s(1

.51

-1.6

5)

1.5

4 m

/s(1

.44

-1.7

5)

1.1

6 m

/s(1

.08

-1.2

3)

0.9

9 m

/s(0

.91

-1.0

9)

1.3

9 m

/s(1

.34

-1.4

4)

1.4

6 m

/s(1

.41

-1.5

1)

0.7

2 m

/s(0

.52

-0.9

7)

0.6

3 m

/s(0

.59-0

.66)

0.8

3 m

/s(0

.78-0

.88)

0.5

0 m

/s(0

.40

-0.6

1)

0.8

2 m

/s(0

.78

-0.8

5)

0.4

4 m

/s(0

.40-0

.48)

0.8

2 m

/s(0

.79-0

.85)

0.6

6 m

/s(0

.58

-0.7

4)

0.5

2 m

/s(0

.50

-0.5

5)

1.0

9 m

/s(0

.99

-1.2

3)

(ave

rag

e

) (ran

ge

)

min

imu

m n

um

ber

ph

ysic

ally r

eq

uir

ed

Data

co

lle

cti

on O

cto

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

2P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in H

ealth

care

Facili

ties

Page 13: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Stretcher Carry Chair

Evacuation Chair Rescue Sheet

(0.6

7 m

/s)

(0.8

4 m

/s)

(0.6

0 m

/s)

(0.5

4 m

/s)

Data

co

lle

cti

on O

cto

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

3P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in H

ealth

care

Facili

ties

Page 14: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Ave

rag

e

Co

rrid

or

Sp

ee

d (

m/s

)

Str

etc

he

rE

va

cC

ha

irC

arr

y C

ha

irR

escu

e S

he

et

MF

MF

MF

MF

Str

aig

ht-

Lin

e

Po

rtio

n1

.24

1.1

91

.54

1.4

21

.44

1.3

31

.38

0.8

7

Ove

rta

kin

g

Po

ten

tia

l

Str

etc

he

rE

va

cC

ha

irC

arr

y C

ha

irR

escu

e S

he

et

MF

MF

MF

MF

No

. S

tair

La

ne

sO

ccu

pie

d2

21

11

21

.51

.5

Ave

rag

e

Co

rrid

or

Sp

ee

d (

m/s

)

Str

etc

he

rE

va

cC

ha

irC

arr

y C

ha

irR

escu

e S

he

et

MF

MF

MF

MF

90

De

gre

e

Co

rne

r T

urn

1.1

21

.09

1.4

01

.14

1.4

31

.35

1.0

70

.86

Data

co

lle

cti

on O

cto

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

4P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in H

ealth

care

Facili

ties

Page 15: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

•M

ovem

en

t d

evic

e p

erf

orm

an

ce c

om

pari

so

n m

atr

ix,

see:

Hu

nt,

A., G

ale

a,

E.

R., &

Law

ren

ce

, P.

J.

(20

15

). A

n a

naly

sis

an

d n

um

eri

cal sim

ula

tio

n o

f th

e

pe

rfo

rman

ce

of tr

ain

ed

ho

sp

ital sta

ff u

sin

g m

ove

me

nt

assis

t d

evic

es t

o e

vacu

ate

pe

op

le w

ith

red

uce

d m

ob

ility

.Fir

e a

nd

Mate

rials

,39

(4),

40

7-4

29

.

•Im

plic

it m

od

elli

ng

in

bu

ildin

gE

XO

DU

S:

Pe

rfo

rman

ce

Co

mp

ari

so

n

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

5P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 16: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Th

eo

reti

cal m

od

el d

eve

lop

me

nt

•E

xis

tin

g e

vacu

atio

n m

od

els

were

exam

ined

to

dete

rmin

e t

heir

su

itab

ilit

y f

or

use

in

sim

ula

tin

g h

osp

ital evacu

atio

ns.

•M

ost

mo

dels

were

un

su

itab

le g

iven

in

nate

lim

itati

on

s in

th

e

ap

pro

ach

ad

op

ted

(e.g

. u

nab

le t

o r

ep

resen

t in

div

idu

al

beh

avio

urs

).

•O

thers

were

ab

le t

o s

imu

late

re

du

cti

on

s in

ag

en

t sp

ee

d,

bu

t

were

in

cap

ab

le o

f effectively

rep

resen

tin

g t

he p

hysic

al

pre

sen

ce o

f th

e d

evic

e o

r th

e a

sso

cia

ted

sta

ffin

g p

roced

ure

s.

•In

co

rpo

rati

ng

larg

e o

bje

cts

in

to e

vacu

ati

on

mo

de

ls

(i.e

. b

igg

er

than

on

e a

gen

t) is v

ital an

d c

halle

ng

ing

.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

6P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 17: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Ap

plicati

on

of

Data

-D

evelo

ped

mic

rosim

ula

tio

n t

oo

ls t

o m

od

el h

osp

ital

evacu

atio

n.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

7P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 18: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Imp

act

•D

em

on

str

atio

n c

ases r

eveale

d n

ew

fo

recasti

ng

ab

ilit

y.

•T

his

en

han

cem

en

t n

ow

allo

ws p

ractitio

ners

to

test

the u

se o

f

evacu

atio

n d

evic

es a

s p

art

of h

osp

ital evacu

atio

n

pro

ced

ure

s a

nd

qu

an

tify

th

eir

im

pact

(po

sitiv

e o

r n

eg

ative)

on

overa

ll p

erf

orm

an

ce.

•In

fo

recastin

g,

this

cap

acity e

nab

les in

sig

ht

to b

e g

ain

ed

pri

or

to t

he im

ple

men

tatio

n o

f a n

ew

pro

ced

ure

, a n

ew

bu

ildin

g d

esig

n o

r th

e u

se o

f n

ew

devic

es.

•T

he m

od

el en

han

ces p

lan

nin

g a

nd

dia

gn

ostic c

ap

ab

ilities,

so

th

at

new

desig

ns a

re b

ett

er

info

rmed

an

d t

hat ri

sk

asse

ssm

en

ts a

nd

evid

en

ce

-base

d a

naly

se

s a

re b

ett

er

su

pp

ort

ed

in

th

e fu

ture

.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

8P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 19: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Ou

r cap

ab

ilit

y

-W

e c

an

cre

ate

be

sp

oke

mo

de

ls b

ased

on

in

div

idu

al

ho

sp

ital p

lan

s.

-W

e c

an

rep

resen

t n

orm

al

op

era

tio

n a

nd

em

erg

en

cy

sit

uati

on

sto

test

pro

ced

ure

s a

nd

in

vestig

ate

safe

ty facto

rs.

-W

e c

an

fo

recast

the t

ime

take

n t

o f

ulf

il p

roce

du

res;

e.g

.

patien

t tr

iag

e a

nd

reg

istr

atio

n,

pre

pari

ng

patien

ts fo

r

evacu

atio

n,

an

d m

ovem

en

t tim

es f

or

evacu

atio

n.

-W

e c

an

co

mp

are

pro

gre

ssiv

e h

ori

zo

nta

l evacu

atio

n

pro

ced

ure

s w

ith

th

e fu

ll-b

uild

ing

(i.e.

vert

ical)

evacu

atio

n

pro

ced

ure

s.

Octo

ber

5,

2016

Pag

e 1

9P

ed

estr

ian

Mo

delli

ng

in

Health

care

Facili

ties

Page 20: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

Ou

r cap

ab

ilit

y

-W

e c

an

mo

del th

e r

ole

of

sta

ff m

em

be

rs in

ord

er

to t

est

pro

ced

ure

s,

an

d t

o a

id in

tra

inin

g b

y p

rovid

ing

a r

eal-tim

e

sim

ula

tio

n o

f sta

ff m

em

bers

’ vari

ou

s r

ole

s d

uri

ng

an

em

erg

en

cy e

ven

t.

-W

e c

an

aid

with

th

e d

esig

n o

f p

ers

on

al

em

erg

en

cy

evacu

ati

on

pla

ns a

nd

re

fug

e a

reas f

or

patien

ts a

nd

investig

ate

th

e u

se o

f evacu

atio

n d

evic

es.

-W

e c

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.

Octo

ber

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Page 21: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

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Page 22: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

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Page 23: -Simulation to Devise Evacuation Strategies · Introduction-Hospital management are responsible for evacuation planning. - Progressive horizontal evacuation is typically prescribed

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Octo

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