simonyan 1000 i 1 urok
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TRADER 4
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336.77.067.21 65.526.52 341
2005 .
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( ). , 2006. 562 .
ISBN 9668286650
1000 1 , , . .
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336.77.067.21 65.526.52
ISBN 9668286650
06050102042005
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1000 1
........................................................................................................................................ 16
.
................................................................................................................. 17
1.1. .............................................................................................181.2. ? !!! ........................................................................................191.3. ......................................................................241.4. ?.......................................................................................28
1.4.1. ............................................................................................................281.4.2. .......................................................................29
1.5. , ...............31
1.6. ................................................................................................341.7. .....................................................37
II. FOREX ................................................................ 42
2.1. ? ............422.1.1. .........................................................................442.1.2. FOREX ........................................................................452.1.3. ....................................................................46
2.2. ..............................................................472.3. ! ........................................................................................49
2.3.1. ..........................................................512.4. ..................................................................................................................................54
2.4.1. ..............................................................................................542.4.1.1. .........................................................................542.4.1.2. 2.........................55
2.4.1.3., ..............................................................562.4.1.4. .................................................................56
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2.4.1.5. ..............................................57
2.4.2. ............................................................572.4.3. ...................................................................612.4.3.1. ............................................................................622.4.3.2. .......................................................................63
2.4.4. ...........................................65
III. ................... 70
3.1. .................................................................................703.1.1. .................................................................................713.1.2. .............................................................723.1.3. ..................................................................743.1.4. ....................................................75
3.2. ! .........................................763.2.1. ......................................................................773.2.2. .........................................................................................793.2.3. ..................................................................................80
3.3. ..........................................................813.3.1. ? ......................................................................82
3.3.2. ..................................823.3.2.1.Non Farm Payrolls Unemploymen .....................................833.3.2.2. FOMC Interest Rate Decisions ....................................................833.3.2.3. Trade Balance ...........................................................................................833.3.2.4. CPI Consumer Price Index........................................................843.3.2.5.Retail Sales ..................................................................................................84
IV. .... 85
4.1. ................................................854.1.1. ..........................................................................864.1.2. , .........................................................................................874.1.3. .............................................................................................90
4.1.4. .................................................................904.1.5. ..........................................................................................93
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4.2. ..............................94
4.3. ..............................................974.3.1. ............................................................................................................................984.3.2. ...........................................................101
4.4. ........................................................................1024.5. ..............................................................................1054.6. ....................................................................1084.7. : ? ......................................................................................................111
4.8. ? ..........................................................................1144.8.1. ( )....................................115
4.8.1.1. ............................1154.8.1.2. .................................116
4.8.2. ...............................................................................1174.9. ! .................................................120
4.9.1. ....................................................1214.9.2. ....................................................................121
4.10. stoploss ? ......................................................124
4.11. ..........................................................................................1264.11.1. ................................................................................................1274.11.2. ? ....................................................................................1274.11.3. ? ...................................................................1284.11.4. ........................................................129
4.12. ......................................................................1314.12.1. , ...................................1314.12.2. ..........................................................................................1324.12.3. .........................................................................................1324.12.4. ? .....................................................134
4.13. ( Baa) ....................................................................................................................1354.14. ! ...........................................................................................139
4.14.1. .........................................................................................1404.14.2. .....................................................................1414.14.3. ...................................................................142
4.15. .................................................................................................143
4.16. ?! ........................................................................1474.16.1. , ? ...........................................................................147
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4.16.2. , !........................148
4.16.3. ? ...................................................1504.16.4. ........................................................1514.17. .................................................................................................152
4.17.1. ......................................................................................1524.17.2. , stoploss .....................................................................154
4.18. : ! ......................................................................................................................155
4.18.1. MACD ..............................................................................1564.18.2. MACD .................................................159
4.18.3. .............................1594.19. ..........................................................161
4.19.1. ..............................................................................1624.19.2. Bollinger Bands .................................................163
4.20. : ? ...............................................................1654.20.1. .........................................................................................1654.20.2. .............................. 1664.20.3. ...................................................................................1664.20.4. ..................................................................................167
4.21. , .....................................1684.21.1. .........................................................1694.21.2. Parabolic ...................................1704.21.3. Parabolic .............................................171
4.22. : ...............................................................................................................................1724.23. ..........................................................176
4.23.1. ..........................................................................................1774.23.2. ...................................................................................................1774.23.3. .......................................................................................1784.23.4. ............................................1784.23.5. .........................................................................1794.23.6. ................................................................................1794.23.7. .................................................................................................1804.23.8. ................................................................................................1804.23.9. ..............................................................................................1814.23.10. ...................................................................................181
4.23.11. ( ) .......................................1824.23.12. ............................................................................182
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4.23.13. ..............................................................................................183
4.23.14. ..........................................................................1844.23.15. .............................................................1844.24. ...................................................185
4.24.1. ........................................................1864.24.2. .............................................187
4.25. .................................................................1894.25.1. ...................................................1904.25.2. 3..............................1914.25.3. ..........................................................191
4.25.4. .......................................................................1924.25.5. ..........................................................................................................................192
4.26. ...................................................................................................1934.27. ......................................................................1964.28. ............................................................................200
4.28.1. ...................................................................................................2024.29. ......................................2034.30. ..........................................................2074.31. ........................................................211
4.31.1. .......................................................................2114.31.2. ................................................................................2124.31.3. .........................................................................................213
4.32. , .............................................................2144.33. . ..............................217
4.33.1. ...................................................................2174.33.1.1. ...................................................................................2184.33.1.2. .......................................2194.33.1.3. ............................................................2204.33.1.4. ........................................................................................................220
4.33.2. ......................................2214.33.2.1. epoe oee/epa eyaa ................................2224.33.2.2. ............................................................................2234.33.2.3. .....................................................................2234.33.2.4. .....................................................................................2244.33.2.5. () ..................................................225
4.33.3. ! ................................................................226
4.33.4. ........................................................................................................................234
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4.34. W. D. Gann .......................................................................................................................240
4.34. 1. ...............2414.34.1.1. ? ........................................2414.34.1.2. .............................................................2414.34.1.3. ? ............................................................................................244
V. .................................................................... 247
5.1. ....................................................................................................................................2485.2. .................................................................................2515.3. .........................................2545.4. ......................................................................................................................................2565.5. ............................................................................259
5.5.1. ...............................................................................2605.5.2. ..............................................................................260
5.5.3. ........................................................................................2615.5.4. ...................................................2625.5.5. ..............................................................................262
5.6. ........................................................................................................2635.6.1. ..................................................................................2645.6.2. ........................................................2645.6.3. .........................................2655.6.4. .....................................267
5.7. Turtle................................................................2685.7.1. ...................................................................2695.7.2. ......................................................................................................2705.7.3. ..........................................................................2715.7.4. Money Management................................................................271
5.8. .......................................................2725.8.1. ....................................................................................................................................2725.8.2. .......................................................................................................................2725.8.3. .........................................273
5.8.4. ..................................2735.8.5. .................................585
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5.8.6. .................................................................................586
5.9. ...............................................2755.9.1. ........................................2755.9.2. ..........................................276
VI. ............................. 279
6.1. .....................................279
6.1.1. ............................................................................................2806.1.1.1. ......................................2806.1.1.2. ...............................................................................2816.1.1.3. ..........................................................................282
6.1.2. ...........................................................................................2846.1.2.1. ..................................................2846.1.2.2. .....................................................285
6.1.3. .................................................................................2866.1.4. .............................................................286
6.1.5. ..........................................................................................................................2876.2. , !( ) .................................................................................287
6.2.1. ?...........................................................................2886.2.2. stoploss? ..........................................................................2896.2.3. take profit? .....................................................................2906.2.4. ? .........................................2916.2.5. ? ...........................................................................291
6.3. , ...................................................2926.4. : ....................................................2946.5. ........................................................................................................................2976.6. ..................................................................298
6.6.1. 1 ....................................................................2986.6.2. 2 .......................................................................2996.6.3. 3 ..............................................................2996.6.4. 4 .......................................................................3006.6.5. 5 ....................................................................................................300
6.7. ............................................................................3026.7.1. .........................................................................302
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6.7.1.1. ......................................................................................................................303
6.7.1.2. ............................................................................................................3036.7.1.3. ......................................................................................................................3046.7.1.4. .....................................................................................................................3046.7.1.5. ................................................................................................................3056.7.1.6. .....................................................................................................................306
6.6.2. .........................................................................................................3096.6.3. .......................................................................................................................3106.6.4. ...................................................................................................................3106.6.5. ...............................................................................................................311
VII. .................................................................................................................................. 312
7.1. : ....................................3127.1.1. ? ...................................................................3137.1.2. ! ..................................................................................................................3147.1.3. ...........................................315
7.1.4. ? ..................................................................3157.1.5. ...........................3167.1.6. ........................................................................3177.1.7. ..........................................................3177.1.8. ......................................................................3177.1.9. , ..............................................3187.1.10. ........318
7.2. .....................................................................................3197.2.1. , o eoo ocy ...................................3197.2.2. pc pacca? .......................................................3207.2.3. ................................................................................................3207.2.4. ...........................................................................................322
VIII. ..................................................................................................................... 324
8.1. ...........324
8.2. .............................................3298.2.1. 1. .....................................................................................330
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8.2.2. 2. ....................................................................................................332
8.2.3. 3. ......................................................................3328.2.4. 4. .........................................................................3338.3. ...............................................................................3348.4. ..................................................................335
8.4.1. . ......................................................................3368.4.2. .........336
8.5. WEB .....................................................338
IX. .............................................................................................................. 342
9.1. .................................................................................3429.2. TeleTRADE ...........................................................................................343
9.2.1. .....................................................................................3459.2.1.1. .........................................................................3459.2.1.2. TeleTRADE .....................................346
9.2.2. TeleTRADE ......................................................................................3489.2.2.1. ............................................................349
9.2.2.2. !........................................350
TRADER 4
I. ...................................................................................................................... 460
1.1. ...............................................................................................460
1.2. .......................................................................................................4611.3. ..........................................................................................................462
........................................... 352
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1.3.1. ..............................................462
1.3.2. .......................................................................4641.4. ....................................................................................................................4651.5. .............................................................................................4651.6. ..............................................................................466
II. .............................................................. 467
2.1. .......................................................................................................4692.1.2. ........................................................................................................................4692.1.3. ....................................................................................................4702.1.4. .........................................................................................................4712.1.5. ................................................................................................4722.1.6. DDE .................................................4732.1.7. .....................................................................................................................474
2.2. ..................................................................................................4742.3. ...................................................................................................477
2.4. ..................................................................................................4782.5. ..............................................................................................4802.6. ..........................................................................................................4822.7. ..........................................................................................4832.8. ...................................................................................................4852.9. ............................................................................487
2.9.1. ......................................................................4872.9.2. ............................................................................4882.9.3. ........................................................................................489
III. ......................................................................... 490
3.1. ...................................................................................................................4923.2. ..................................................................................................................4923.3. ......................................................................................................................4943.4. ............................................................................................................496
3.5. .........................................................................................................4973.6. ..............................................................................................................500
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3.7. ...................................................................................................................501
3.8. ...........................................................................................................502
IV. ............................................................................................... 502
4.1. ......................................................5034.2. ................................................................5064.3. .......................................................507
4.4. ....................................................................509
V. ............................................................................................................................................... 509
5.1. .................................................................................................5095.2. ...............................................................................................................5105.3. .......................................................................................................512
5.3.1. ..................................................................................5135.4. .........................................................................................................513
5.4.1. ......................................................................................5145.4.2. .........................................................................................5155.4.3. .........................................................................5155.4.4. ........................................................................................5165.4.5. .....................................................................5185.4.6. .....................................................................................5185.4.7. .........................................................................................519
5.5. ...................................................................5195.5.1. ..................................................................................5195.5.2. ...............................................................................5205.5.3. ............................................................5215.5.4. ...............................................................................................5225.5.5. .........................................................................................5235.5.6. .....................................................................................523
5.5.6.1. ....................................................................523
5.5.6.2. ................................................5245.5.6.3. ...................................................................................525
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VI. .................................................................................................................................. 525
6.1. ...................................................................................................5256.1.1. ..............................................................................526
6.2. ....................................................................................................5276.3. ............................................................................................531
6.3.1. ....................................................................................................5356.3.2.
.......................................................................................................5366.4. ..........................................................................................................5386.5. ..................................................................................................5396.6. ..............................................................................................................................5396.7. ..............................................................................................................................641
VII. .......................................................................................................................... 542
7.1. .............................................................................................5427.1.1. .............................................................................................544
7.2. ........................................................................................5477.3. ....................................................................................550
VIII. ............................................................................................................................. 553
8.1. ...............................................5538.2. Instant Execution ...........................................................................554
IX. ....................................................................................................................................... 555
9.1. ..................................................................................................................5559.2. .........................................................................................................559
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. .............................................................................................................................. 560
10.1. .......................................................................................................56010.2. ...................................................................................................561
XI. ................................................................................ 563
XII. ............................................................................................564
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. , . , , , 0.9180 0.9185. ,
1.7
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42 FOREX
II. FOREX
, ,
, , . ()
2.1. ?
, , : , , ,
, , ; , . ( )
. , , , , , , . , , , , , , . ,
: () , ( ) .
2.1
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43 FOREX
, . . . , (, ), , (, , , ) . , .
,
, . , (, .), , .
, , , , ( ). ,
, . ,
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() . , . , , .
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, , .
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44
2.1.1.
, . , , .
, , , FOREX (foreign currency exchangemarket) .
1977 . 5 ., 1992 . 1 ..
34 ., 40 . 8 . .
, . , , . 1992 ., 2 1 ., 1996 . , McDonalds .
, , . , , , . , (), , .
,
(buy) (sell) . .
1) buy () sell () . ,
, , , .
(buy) ().
. (sell) ,
FOREX
2.1
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45
. ,
.2) sell buy . ,
. () , , .
. , ? . , , ,
. , , . , , , .
2.1.2. FOREX
FOREX , . (, , .) .
, , , . , () . , ,
.
, , , , , , .
, . (, ,
, .) / , .
FOREX
2.1
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46
. , ,
, , , , .
, , ,
. .
.
2.1.3.
. , .
: ( ), (, , , ,) ().
3. ( )
FOREX
2.1
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47
2 3 . . 9 , , 12 ( ) . 12 .
15.30 : , . .
18 . 19 , : , .
22.00 , . 1 , .
2.2.
. ( )
., 1000 , 5000 . , , 100 000 . .
, . . , (, 1000 ).
, 27 ./1 . 27 000 .,
FOREX
2.2
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48
Microsoft 24,5 . 1 24 500 .,
100 000 130 000 . (1,30 ./1 ). ! , 2, 10, 100 .
( ) . , . , ,
. .
, . , . ? ! , , , , ( ?).
, ,
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. ( ) , . .
, . , , (2, 4, 10, 50, 100) .
() .
, . , : 1:2, 1:4, 1:10.
FOREX
2.2
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49
1:50, 1:100.
., 100 000 1,14 () 1140 . ( 100 !). 114 000. , , , , . , 1:100 100
! , Cola, 44,5 .
1:10, 4450 . . , , , 2600 ., 500 .
, . ( ) .
.
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, , , . ()
, , , , . ?! .
?
, , . (). .
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50
, . , ,
( , ). .
. , 3,70 , 1 3 70 .
, (, ,
) , . , , . . . , , .
. , , .
(, , ) , . 1 .
, , . . Microsoft MSFT, WZ6(W , Z : , 6 : 2006).
. , , . . , . , , , , , : EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/HF.
, , .
, , . , EUR/USD
FOREX
2.3
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51
1,3025 , 1 1,3025 . USD/JPY
116,43 , 1 116,43 . . (0,01): 27,27 . 1 ; 1450,89 . 1 . 0,0001, , 0,01 (117,46 1 ).
. , NYSE : MSFT 24,53/58. ? , Mirosoft 24,58 . 1 , 24,53 . 1 . 5 , , , , .
, . , (, ), , . ,, 5 2003 . :
. .
2.3.1.
, , , .
1
FOREX
2.3
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52
. .
, , , , , . , , , , ,
., ( )
, , . , , , , .
, . , ( ) .,
, , , . , , . .
, . , , , , , , , .
, , . , . , . , , , , .
FOREX
2.3
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53
.
, . , .
. , , . , , .
, , , . , , , .
, . , ,
. . , , , , , , . .
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, . , , , .
, , , .
FOREX
2.3
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54
2.4.
, .( )
2.4.1.
, , , . , .
: , , , .
,
.
, .
2.4.1.1.
. . , , . .
FOREX
2.4
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55
. , , , . , , .
: , , ,
, . . . , , .
2.4.1.2. 2
, . . , 1999 . , . .
, , .
, . , . .
, , , , . , .
FOREX
2.4
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56
2.4.1.3. ,
, , .
, . . : . .
, , , , . .
2.4.1.4.
().
. .
, , , , .
. ,
. , .
, . , , , 4% .
1998 , .
FOREX
2.4
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57
. . . , . , , , , . . , .
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, .
. , , . , . .
. . .
.
2.4.2.
, , , , . , , , .
, ,
FOREX
2.4
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58
(. .).
, .
4.
: ( , , .).
, . . , 2 3, . .
FOREX
2.4
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59
,
: , . , ,
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, , ( .).
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, .
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2.4
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60
. ,
. , , . inflation target. , 02%. 1,52,5%. , . .
. , . ,
, ., ,
. , , . , , .
. . ,
. , , , , . . . , .
, , . . .
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, . ,
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61
. ,
. . , . 1998 . , . , , .
,
. , , , . . . , , .
2.4.3.
, . . 7075% FOREX.
, 1999 . 2002. 12 . 0,86 ./1 ( 2002.) 1,31 ./1 ( ).
, . , , 4050% .
,
. 1020% .
FOREX
2.4
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62/575
62
, , ,
. , (515%). (, 11 2001 .). .
2.4.3.1.
, , . . , . , : EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/HF.
, , 0,0001, 0,01,
, (pip, point, tick). , , 5090 EUR/USD, 40100 GBP/USD, 80160 USD/JPY, 60120 USD/CHF.
, , , . : 1,2781 / 86. 1,2781 . (bid) , , 1,2786 . (ask) , .
5
FOREX
2.4
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63
( 5 ) (spread). , .
2.4.3.2
, , , , , ,
1,2900 . , FOREX
() 100 000 . . (,, .). , 100 000 129 000 . ?
. FOREX , . FOREX , ,
, ().
, , , 1% 1000 . ( 1:100)! , 100 000 , 1000 . , , , .
, , . , , 1,3000 . ( 100
6
FOREX
2.4
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64
000 ) 130 000 .,
1000 . (130 000 . 129 000 .).
7. 1000 . 100% !
,
USD/CHF. (1 100 000 .) 1,3300 1 . , (1) 1,3150 , 1500 (133 000 131 500). 114%.
8
FOREX
2.4
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65
,
FOREX . .
2.4.4. ( , , , )
, .
, . EUR/USD,GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY. , . . , EUR/USD1,1815 , 1 1,1815 . , .
, USD/JPY 110,26 , 1 110,26 . , , , .
. , , . 19201930., , , .
1944 ., 35 . 1 . .
. 1947 . , . , .
. , .
FOREX
2.4
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66
. 60
. . , 1971 . .
, 1970 ., . ,
. ? ,
, . 75% . , , , . , .
.
. ( 1999 .) , 2002 . . , , , 1,17 ./1 , , .
EUR/USD .
( cable , ) XVIII . , 200 , .
, 30 . XX
. .
FOREX
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67
1990 .
, . 2,95 1 , 2,25%.
, . . , , , 1992 ., . 2,5 1 .
15%. , , .
(CHF) (JPY), , , USD/CHF,USD/JPY.
, , . .
, , 170 , . , . 11 2001 . 600 , 200 .
, , , , , , , .
, 70 . ,
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2.4
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68
( 1971 . 1974 .),
( 1972 .). , , .
. , , , .
, ., , . (1015%), . , , .
, . , , , , .
. 1871 . , (1868 .), ( , ). (16001868 .), , , , , 244 .
(
), , , .
. , , . .
,
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2.4
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69
1951 1972 , 9,4%,
13,1%. . 1953 .
. 2,5 . .
. .
, , , , .
FOREX
2.4
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70
III.
, . ( )
3.1.
.( )
, , , . , , .
: , , , , , , , , , , . . , , ,
, .
3.1
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71
,
, (). , . ; , . .
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( , , , .) .
, , , . , , 1996 . , .
1998 . , .
, , ,, , ( 10%).
, . , ,
. , 11 2001 . .
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72
, ,
, . , , , . , .
() . , , G7 , , 114 109 1 .
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, . . .
, : (), (). , , , . , , .
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. .
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(). : , .
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73
,
, , . (
, , , ) . .
, . ,
( , , ISM, PMI, IFO).
, . , .
, . :
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. , , , ,
. .
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74
3.1.3. ,
, (, ).
, .
, ( ). , , , . , , , . , , .
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3.1
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75
,
. , , , . , (, ) .
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76
:
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, . FOREX.
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. (. )
, , . ,
. , .
. , , , , , .
, .
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3.2.1.
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. , .
. . .
. ( ). . . . . .
. . . . ,
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. , ,
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.). .
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78
, .
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.
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. 3 , : , , .
.
.
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79
,
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. , . .
. ,
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.
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. , .
: ;
10
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80
;
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? 1 2 .
.
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;
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4
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81
.
. , , , . , , .
, .
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. , . , , FOREX. , . , .
. , FOREX,
3.3
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82
5 ,
, .
3.3.1. ?
, ,
. , , , .
, 0,3 % (ConsumerPrice Index CPI) , , CPI 0,1 %.
, , . www.teletrade.com.ua .
3.3.2.
1. Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment ( : 124 ).2. FOMC Interest Rate Decisions ( : 74 ).3. Trade Balance ( : 64 ).4. CPI Inflation ( : 44 ).5. Retail sales ( : 44 ).
. .
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83
3.3.2.1. Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment
,
. , , . , , .
: 8:30 (15:30 ).
3.3.2.2. FOMC Interest Rate Decisions FOMC
(FOMC)
overnight. FOMC .
: 8 . .
3.3.2.3. Trade Balance
, , . ( ) , , , .
: . .
3.2
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84
3.3.2.4. CPI Consumer Price Index
CPI , . , , .
: 13 8:30 (16:30 ).
3.3.2.5. Retail Sales
. . , .
: 11
8:30 (16:30 ). ,
, . , , .
, , . .
3.2
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85
IV.
,
. , . ( )
4.1. !
. ( )
? . . , . ? , ?
, . .
, .
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86
4.1.1.
, (VV .), (, ), , , .
. :
(monthly); (weekly); (daily);4 (4hourly); (hourly);30, 15, 5, 1.
( ), , .
. (open). ,
() (, , . .).
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(low) . (close).
() .
, (close) , , (open) ., ( )
. 900, 8 7200 . , , .
, . . .
. , .
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87
, , .
, , , . , . . , . , .
, . PH , . .
4.1.2. ,
: , , .
. , . (line) close.
. , . . . , , , .
. (bar). () . . : , , , , . : M, W, D, 5 M5 . .
: (high), (low),
. (open) (close).
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88
: ( ) (
). . . , .
. , ,
(candle). , . , .
, (body). open close. (shadow). high low. open close, high low.
, , . . .
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, . .
12
11
4.1
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89
.
, . , .
(, EUR/USD), :
13.
(pointand figure). . , . , . . .
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4.1
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90
4.1.3.
, , , . , .
, . . , . ,
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. .
. . .
. ,
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91
, .
, , . , () . , , . , .
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. . , . , , . .
. ., . ,
. , . , .
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92
16.
, , , : , . , . . , , , , .
:
. , , . . , , . .
17.
4.1
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93
, , ,
. , , . : , . : , . . .
4.1.5.
, . , , . , , , , , .
. : , , .
. , , . : . , (pattern).
: . , .
, , , ., .
, , . , , .
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94
4.2.
: ? 2% . ( )
, , , , , . : , , , . ,
, , , .
, . . , , , . .
, . , , , . .
, , . , . , , , , . , , . . , , .
, (; ). . .
, , ,
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95
. , . .
. : . , . , .
,
. : (), () ().
1. (bullish) . ,
. 19.
18
4.2
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96
, . , , (support). , , . , , (resistance). .
2. (bearish) . , .
3. ( range) . , , .
: ; ; .
, , , , , , .
21.
20
4.2
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97
,
, .
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(intermarket analysis) ,
. , .
4 : , , ,
. ( )
, . ,
. , , . , , , , . .
,,
. , , .
. , , , , , . ,
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98
.
, . 90, , .
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. (. . . ) 6 .
3: , ( 1). I II , III IV , V , VI .
.
. . .
( II , III ), ,
5.
22.
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99
,
. II , ; III , , , .
? 4 :, , 10 6 ( . ).
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100
1.
. , , . DJI.
2. , . . . .
, .
. DJI , . . .
3. , . .
. . DJI .
4. . . , . . . 2 3 , 90 100. . .
, 2 3 . , .
5. , .
: , . . 11 2001 .
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101
.
, , . 4 , . .
4.3.2.
, : , .
, 19971999 . . 2000 . , . , , ( 3 4).
, , . 2000 ., , up
.
2002 . !, , 7 .
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102
,
.
4.4.
! , . ( )
, (), , , , . . , , , . , ,
( ).
25.
4.4
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103
(double top) (double bottom).
26. 27.
, ( 1, 2, 3, 4) ( 5) ( 6). , ,, (support), (resistance).
. , , , , , . , , .
(triple top) (triple bottom).
28.
(headand shoulders).
4.4
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104
29.
, . ( 1), (neck line). , . , ( 2), ( 3). , , neck line ( 4),
. () (inverse head and shoulders). (triangle).
. , , . , 4, 5 6. (), .
30.
4.4
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105
,
( 1), (flag). ( 2), ( 3).
31.
. , , , . .
4.5.
, .( )
, , ( , , . .) , .
: ?,
4.5
-
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106
( )
, . , , . .
, , (, ) (
, ) .
. , , , , .
,
, ( , ). : .
.
( ). ( ). (
, ). ( ,
, ). , ,
( ) ( ).
(Moving Average).
. : , , . ,
4.5
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107
, .
.
(n), , (MA):
, n = 9, 9 (AV). n = 21 , , 21 . , (MA) , . . , USD/CHF. 9, 21 34.
33
32
4.5
-
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108
, MA ,
(uptrend). MA (downtrend). MA , (range). MA (support), (resistance).
(MA) , . , , , MA (n = 9) MA (n = 5)
. . . ,
MA : 5, 9 (8), 14 (13), 21, 34, 50 (55), 100, 144, 200 (233). 5,9, 100, 200; 9, 21, 50; 5, 15, 34, 55, 89.
.
. ,
100% . , . ( ) . .
4.6.
, . ()
, (Relative Strength Index, RSI).
RSI () . 70 .
4.6
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109
(, ). RSI (n). :
RSI = 100 [100/(1+RS)]:
RS(n) = AVup/AVdownAVup ,
, n (, . .).
AVdown , n.
, , 14 9. RSI .
( ) ( ) . 0 100%. ,
, 30% 70%. 30% (oversold), 70% (overbought).
34
4.6
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110
(30%)
, , . , RSI (70%) , . , 30% , 70% .
, , 25%.
75%. 20 80%, 30 70%.
RSI , . , RSI , RSI , . RSI , .
, , . , RSI . (, ).
35
4.6
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111
RSI ( )
( , ) . RSI , . RSI , . , , .
RSI . , , RSI ,
, , , , . . , .
. , : , , .
4.7. :
.(. . )
, . , . , , , , .
,
4.7
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112
. :
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, .
. , , , , . ( ), .
, . , .
2002 , NeubergerBerman, .
: , , , , () 1933 . , .
. , , . , .
. , . ,
: , . .
4.7
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113
, 90%
. , 40% , , . , . , .
: , ,
. : , , , , . , ,, . .
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peep , aoaec ee yceo opoe. . Xo exec aa opo ocaoo coaoca, e peyeaoo aaa ooax yc. , peaaopo a pe peye ee, cax ceocpece pco pea eco oypeo cpee.
4.12.1. ? , ?
a yyc co aaecx oopo opoxpeoea. Ho o x e pece e a apa exopoeo opa .
peco oo xo po oo ooy, o paecy oa.
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oae oa, oa oee oapy peaoa
opeeee ca, cooecye opy oxoeo pee.Ocopo xo coee poeyo ey oppoaecaa opoe. o a ep, epe oopy paee a ceaco ooa pc.
Ec oo eoo opa pee xoa po, o pcpae oxo oca ceo p opoe aoeax. ep aaec o xoe p pope opeeeooeooo ypo. Bop ca c oae oppeooo oaaoce coo e xoa apae e ooooep copoe. p pee oya poaaceye peeax yoo aaoa pee, e aec ee.
4.12.2.
aa x cpae xoa ye c aye ae ce? coae, pa oe oa a e
ye e e ca. He capaec pepa paa xoa pocyaay a oopee. Ha cao ee o apoa ay cey oece eye poo cya, coooe oxooc pcy paoo epoa epa opo o. ooeeyco c eo eoxooc, a e e poco.
aae cop p cpae xoa oee aeo.epe o pe oee, a pa yy ce, oopy copaeec ocyec. ee y, oecoo pax cpae oy paoa oo o e
poo cya. pa op cpae xoa oe aoe ooaoo acpo, e op pee.
4.12.3.
oya a pope epx poaa p pope ec ece eoo opa pee xoa po,
coye oco peepo. coae, o ecae y cocoo ee c pa.
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a exa xoa poca. ea popaec epe ypoe oep
copoe, xoe, o op o. ae oec, o ea pooa coe ee ao apae.
o oe oac coco xoa po. Topo aeaeo, oa po ec ae apae, o o yee ea, ec po paepec oe pyy copoy?eo, o oco peepo e oe a o aopoc. , ooo poy epe yao, a pa,
oa caac c ecoo eceoc.peceoae yca oe eoxo paoa, ec peeppaoo pae co cey opaa pcaoe ae aa ax paa. Boepx, cea ycaaae cooyc pc epe aao opo. Bepe cpoapoe oep coye paecy oe oee opoopeeo acae oye caa xoa, ec po epo ac. Boopx, yocoepec, o oee poa poaapa peoaae aeay oepy ae cpae.
ya opoec? Moe peep oaa, o o cooaa, oa , o pop ye cococ. Ha cao ee o
50
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ac co opo. ae ye co copoe
ooa paopoa pa eco oo, o co ece c oo.Bxo p oppeoo oae ec oe o eoo,ooy o o coye eepe aa ex, o poycepoe ee. Ho ao o po pee, e o o cea, oo x yay pec a p.
4.12.4. ?
Bxo p oppeoo oae oe ycee ee. Ecooo, paece opep a, ya, a oaee, po epecoce popa. o a cao ee ee, e aec. Hoe peaco opaac peyey ypo oep copoe pee, e opac ae.
ooy cope a eoo pa axoe ypo, eepoaao pooe pop. oppeoe e acopac a ypo ooo ay.
Bxo yo aaoe cyae ox peepo, o eopocaoo poca. pa cc ocaae, o ayee pe op oo o a pa