simon chelton
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This is a presentation delivered by Simon Chelton, at the RUSI International Sea Power Conference 2014TRANSCRIPT
Submarines in the Asia-Pacific
Simon CheltonAssociate Fellow RUSI
Outline
• Maritime Asia-Pacific
• Submarines in East Asia
• Issues
Maritime Asia-Pacific
East Asia Trade Routes
Energy Trade Flows
Maritime Topography
Wider Region
Submarines in East Asia
Submarines in East Asia 2000
2000Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals
China 1 5 30 36India 0 0 4 4Australia 0 0 3 3Japan 0 0 18 18Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 6 6S Korea 0 0 6 6Philipinnes 0 0 0 0Indonesia 0 0 0 0Vietnam 0 0 0 0Singapore 0 0 5 5Malaysia 0 0 4 4Thailand 0 0 0 0Total 1 5 80 86
Submarines in East Asia 2014
2014Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals
China 4 5 60 69India 0 1 16 17Australia 0 0 6 6Japan 0 0 18 18Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 20 20S Korea 0 0 12 12Philipinnes 0 0 0 0Indonesia 0 0 2 2Vietnam 0 0 1 1Singapore 0 0 6 6Malaysia 0 0 6 6Thailand 0 0 0 0Total 4 6 151 161
Submarines in East Asia 2030
2030Country SSBN SSN SSK Totals
China 5 9 25 39India 5 6 7 18Australia 0 0 12 12Japan 0 0 20 20Taiwan 0 0 4 4N Korea 0 0 30 30S Korea 0 0 18 18Philipinnes 0 0 3 3Indonesia 0 0 3 3Vietnam 0 0 6 6Singapore 0 0 4 4Malaysia 0 0 6 6Thailand 0 0 3 3Total 10 15 141 166
Issues
• Proliferation• Availability and effectiveness• Operational deconfliction• Countermeasures
Proliferation• Increased numbers• Push for quality over quantity– Nuclear power– AIP
• Impact• Sources of supply
Availability and effectiveness
• High cost of ownership• Training and standards– Closer to aircraft than surface ships
• Maintenance and support infrastructure• Learning from other nations
Operational deconfliction
• Waterspace management• Coordination• Avoidance of collision
Countermeasures
• Reacting to increased submarine capability– Surveying capacity– ASW capability– Maritime Patrol Aircraft
Conclusions
• Rapid SM proliferation in East Asia– Response to general naval expansion and
territorial competition• New owners will need help to exploit SMs– Potential market for existing operating countries
• Dangers of congested operating areas• Likely to drive ASW capability within region
Questions?