simec atlantis energysource: company data, cfe research estimates this deviation is in line with the...
TRANSCRIPT
This is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. However, CFE has put in place procedures and controls designed to prevent dealing ahead of marketing communications. For institutional clients use only. Please see important regulatory disclaimers and disclosures on pages 10-12
A stronger footing
With the completion of a £5m equity raise, we think that SIMEC Atlantis should
be able to bring in sufficient debt or other finance to complete the acquisition
of Green Highland Renewables (“GHR”). This will place the company on a much
stronger footing financially as GHR will be cash generating from day one, initially
contributing an annualised £11m in EBITDA. Along with the 25% funding of
Uskmouth from Equitix announced in November, the company is now in a
position where it should not need to seek any additional equity funding to
achieve its main targets. Our target price changes principally to reflect the
dilution on the equity raise and moves to 84p from 86p and we reiterate our
BUY recommendation.
Funding structure appropriate for these assets
SIMEC Atlantis has raised £5m through the issue of 31.4m shares, and will issue a matching
number of shares to SIMEC, the GHR vendor. This will allow the company to secure the
acquisition with completion to follow on the finalisation of c.£25m of new funding which we
expect to be debt based. While higher gearing could be seen as additional risk, we think the
lower earnings volatility of the GHR assets significantly mitigates this. The expected inter
annual variation in output from this portfolio is lower than normal for hydro. Pricing is also
less volatile with the vast majority of the price fixed in real terms (RPI) for twenty years.
Forecasts adjusted for revised terms and accounting changes
Our forecasts already included a conservative assumption of the GHR deal. We have adjusted
these for the actual timing of the deal, which we expect to be slightly ahead together with
changes for the actual funding structure. This now includes more debt and as a result, dilution
is less than we originally expected. We are also taking the opportunity to adjust our reported
profit forecasts for a probable revised accounting treatment of the Uskmouth acquisition,
reducing reported numbers. This has no impact on cash or valuation with the main change
being that capitalised interest and development costs now move on to the P&L and out of
capex in the cashflow statement.
01 April 2019 | Corporate Company Note | Alternative Energy & Resource Efficiency
Equity Research | UK
SIMEC Atlantis Energy ( AIM : SAE LN )
BUY
Share Price (as at close: 29/03/2019) 16.5 p
Target Price 84p (from 86p)
Upside to TP 408.8%
Market Cap (£'m) 60.4
Net Debt (£'m) 32.3
Enterprise Value (£'m) 92.7
Shares in Issue (m) 429.1
Free Float (%) 46.0%
Average Daily Volume (000, -3m) 73.0
12 month high/low 42 p/11.75 p
(%) 1m 3m 12m
Absolute -19.5 -31.2 n.a.
FTA relative -21.0 -37.0 n.a.
Price & price relative (-2 year)
Source: Datastream
Next News
Prelims - Q2 2019
Business
Independent renewable power producer
www.simecatlantis.com
Adam Forsyth
Research Analyst
+44 (0) 20 7894 7214
Year end
December
Revenue
(£'m)
EBIT
(£'m)
PBT
(£'m)
Tax
(%)
EPS (FD)
(p)
PER
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
Div Yield
(%) 2017A 0.3 -9.5 -11.1 5.2 -8.6 -1.9 -30.4 0.0 2018E 2.0 -18.5 -24.3 0.0 -6.6 -2.5 -25.5 0.0
2019E 13.8 -4.3 -20.7 0.0 -4.9 -3.3 57.7 0.0 2020E 24.9 2.8 -22.9 0.0 -5.5 -3.0 20.2 0.0 2021E 98.6 39.9 21.5 0.0 3.6 4.5 4.7 0.0
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates Figures exclude exceptional items
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Price Relative
2 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research
SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Green Highland Renewables
Green Highland Renewables
The Green Highland Renewables (“GHR”) business represents quality run-of-river hydro
projects in the west of the Scottish Highlands with 20MW of operating capacity and 7.9MW
under construction or in late stage development.
Better than average output
The GHR portfolio is a strong one in our view. The 20MW of operating run-of-river projects
have an average load factor of 50% based on the P50 output assumptions. This compares
with 37.9% for UK small-scale hydro projects on average, and 35.8% for all UK hydro. The high
output is easily explained by the location of the sites which are coincident with the wetter
parts of the UK. There is a good north-south geographic spread of the assets with a westerly
bias in areas of high rainfall and avoiding the more easterly areas that can be affected by rain
shadow.
GHR Projects in Context
Source: Met Office, Company Data, © British Crown copyright, Met Office.
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 3
Green Highland Renewables SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019
Grid connections
In addition to securing good sites, GHR has shown innovative development skills, being able
to secure grid connections for dispersed sites by linking groups of assets via private wire
connections and connecting to the grid at more convenient locations. Roughly half of the
portfolio has been connected in this way.
A generous subsidy regime
Most of the sites are on the UK feed-in-tariff (“FIT”) support regime with accreditation dates
exposing them to some of the more generous early tariffs. These last for 20 years from
accreditation and are index linked using the more generous RPI measure. Later feed-in-tariff
levels were reduced to reflect falling technology costs even though this did not really apply
in hydro and the scheme was withdrawn for new projects from 31 March 2019. While still to
be completed, the GHR projects at Nathrach and Glen Kinglass were accredited before the
cut-off date will receive the subsidy if they are completed within 24 months of the
accreditation date, which we do not see as problematic.
O&M revenues
The business has also secured operations and maintenance contracts with a number of
projects outside their own portfolio. This adds some useful marginal income and also keeps
the company in touch with potential acquisition opportunities.
Completing the portfolio
While the FIT regime has now ended for new projects, making new run-of-river hydro
uneconomic at current wholesale prices, it is likely that existing accredited assets will come
onto the market over time. GHR should be well-placed to identify value here and pick up sites
at profitable prices. In particular there are a number of projects funded under the Enterprise
Investment Scheme (“EIS”) which are coming up to the end of the three year period after
which realisations can be made free from CGT and the tax driven investors are likely to want
to seek liquidity. GHR is close to this market and has identified 25MW to 30MW of additional
capacity.
4 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research
SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 The funding
The funding
SIMEC has raised £5m in new equity mainly from existing shareholders with 31.4m new
shares issued. It will also issue the same number of shares to SIMEC, the vendor of the GHR
business. The remaining funding will be met with debt. The bulk of the debt will be a c. £90m
term loan facility with a syndicate of major banks. An additional £24.5m facility will allow the
remaining construction of Nathrach and Glen Kinglass to be financed and the 50% stake in
Allt Garbh to be acquired. We expect that the remaining shortfall in the acquisition
consideration of c.£25m will most likely be funded by additional debt.
Deal funding
£m
Enterprise value 124.7
Term loan 90.0 Equity raise 5.0 Share consideration 5.0
Funded 100.0 Residual 24.7
Source: Company data
The overall level of debt is higher than we had originally envisaged when the acquisition was
announced in November 2018. However, we do not see this as unnecessarily risky. We
estimate the standard deviation of output across the portfolio at 13% of the mean (i.e. the
coefficient of variation). The GHR portfolio benefits from some low variability sites, notably
at Loch Eilde Mor where the site benefits from a particularly large catchment including the
loch itself.
Expected output and standard deviation
Scheme P50 Output (MWh) P90 Output (MWh) δ δ (%)
Loch Eilde Mor Ph1 17,764 17,037 567 3% Loch Eilde Mor Ph2 15,481 12,156 2,594 17% Ceannacroc: Glen Fada 4,350 3,571 608 14%
Ceannacroc: Allt Coire Sgreumh 1,881 1,482 311 17% Mullardoch 1,743 1,392 274 16% Allt Gleann nam Fiadh 7,474 5,549 1,502 20%
Allt Garbh 4,608 3,550 825 18% Coulags 4,969 3,840 881 18% Shenval 1,963 1,705 201 10%
Nathrach 7,091 5,805 1,003 14% Glenkinglass 20,160 16,325 2,991 15% TOTAL 87,484 72,412 11,757 13%
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
This deviation is in line with the UK whole country average for ROC-backed wind generation
which has a standard deviation of 12% and much lower than the hydro average at 19%.
However the wind figure benefits from the full distribution across the country and any
individual portfolio of wind farms will see higher variability. We have seen data suggesting
standard deviations ranging from 14% to 28%. Project finance for these projects is available
at up to 80% gearing levels.
Price volatility is also low the GHR portfolio with 14 of the 15 operational projects supported
by FITs which are fixed in real terms. Again, ROC-backed wind projects have roughly 50% of
revenues exposed to wholesale power prices. Consultants Redpoint in their analysis of the
UK’s Electricity Market Reform programme estimated that fixed prices could increase gearing
for onshore wind by 25% and CfDs by 15%. While they did not estimate the impact on hydro
the similarly of the GHR output standard deviation to wind suggest a similar uplift from the
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 5
The funding SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019
fixed pricing available under the FIT scheme. This would theoretically suggest that gearing of
at least 92% should be supportable, in line the revised funding structure.
The acquisition also brings a strong management team
GHR has a proven track record in developing projects and the team will join the SIMEC Atlantis
team. The key personal include Stephen Hutt, MD and CFO, Ian Cartwright, Chief Operating
Officer and Alex Reading, International Development. We think the quality of the portfolio
they have put together reflects the quality of this team and we think it bodes well for both
the completion of the existing projects and the sourcing of new ones.
The team is the most recent addition to a strengthening management team at SIMEC Atlantis.
The company has hired Andy Richardson as Group COO and Ernie Rowe as head of conversion
at Uskmouth. It has also appointed Ian Wakelin as a non-executive.
Ian Wakelin was previously CEO of waste management company Biffa plc and led the IPO of
the business in 2016. He was previously co-founder and CEO of Greenstar UK, a waste
management and recycling business which was acquired by Biffa in 2010. He brings significant
waste management expertise to the board which in our view helps to derisk any potential
feedstock issues.
Andy Richardson was executive Director of Thermal & Renewables at EDF with main Board
responsibility for gas storage, onshore and offshore wind development (>0.5GW), biomass
and thermal generation (5.4GW). He has also held positions as Head of Asset Management
and Engineering Manager at Alstom Power Service UK and, most recently, COO of Stanwell
Corporation, a diversified, vertically integrated energy company with a range of electricity
generation assets in Australia.
Ernie Rowe was previously Major Projects, R&D and Risk Manager at Drax Group where he
was responsible for the £700m conversion of 2,000MW of coal capacity to burn biomass and
the £85m repowering of 400MW to biomass co-firing. He also had engineering R&D
responsibility for biomass and fuel chemistry and biomass wood pellets and on the original
R&D process for the initial unit conversion to biomass including milling, combustion and
emissions optimisation, boiler conditioning, fuel chemistry and ash handling.
The SIMEC pipeline - the model is now proven
When SIMEC Atlantis executed the acquisition of Uskmouth Power station from the GFG
Alliance it also gained a right of first offer on assets in the SIMEC portfolio of generation assets
in the UK and Australia. This now totals over 650MW of gross capacity. The GHR portfolio is
the first deal to be executed under this arrangement. We think the consideration has been
done at a fair price which adds value to SIMEC Atlantis. If SIMEC Atlantis can add similar value
with the rest of the portfolio we see further upside for shareholders. We believe that there
are some very strong assets remaining.
6 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research
SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Financials
Financials
Changed accounting treatment of early Uskmouth costs
We have reviewed the accounting treatment of the Uskmouth acquisition and believe that
there is now a probability that the company will be required to recognise more significant
depreciation on the acquired assets to be included in the FY 2018 numbers and beyond with
a recapitalisation when the conversion is finalised. This would mean over £5m of additional
depreciation and also see a similar level of the deal costs appear on the P&L rather than being
capitalised as we had previously assumed. These changes are purely accounting changes and
do not affect cashflow or our valuation. The treatment is not confirmed but we think it
sensible to be prudent and we reduce our forecast reported profit in FY 18, 19 and 20.*
Forecast revisions
Our forecasts already assumed the completion of the GHR acquisition from July with an
equity funding of £14.85m at 35p. In outturn we expect the completion slightly earlier and
the financing now to comprise more debt and less equity but the equity is at a lower price.
The dilution impact is slightly less overall and the impact of the additional debt is not overly
dramatic.
As a result of the accounting changes our PBT in FY 18 reduces to -£24.3m from -£13.6m and
EPS to -6.5p from -3.5p. In FY 19, the accounting changes plus higher interest reduces PBT to
-£20.7m from -£3.8m. EPS is also adjusted for the new shares to move to -4.9p from -1.1p. In
FY 20, PBT reduces to -£22.9m from £2.6m and EPS to -5.5p from 0.1p. The accounting
changes have no impact on forecasts from 2021 onwards other than higher ongoing
depreciation as these are changes associated with the pre conversion costs only. However
the accounting changes confuse the picture and we have set out all our changes in the table
below.
Forecast Change Analysis
£,000 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e
Old forecast revenue 1,971 13,707 23,949 98,508 Timing on GHR 0 142 966 75
New forecast revenue 1,971 13,849 24,915 98,583
Old forecast operating profit -11,395 111 9,253 43,703
Timing on GHR 3,000 78 440 0 Deprecition change -5,317 -4,499 -6,895 -3,801 Capitalised development costs brought back -4,783 0 0 0
New forecast operating profit -18,495 -4,311 2,798 39,903
Old forecast PBT -13,550 -3,796 2,596 26,363 Operating profit changes above -7,100 -4,421 -6,455 -3,801
Capitalised interest brought back -3,953 -8,942 -9,573 0 interest impact of higher gearing 346 -3,576 -9,420 -1,059 New forecast PBT -24,258 -20,735 -22,852 21,504
Old forecast net profit -12,924 -4,849 226 18,993 PBT changes above -10,707 -16,940 -25,447 -4,859
Tax effect 0 624 1,427 1,470 New forecast net profit -23,631 -21,165 -23,794 15,604
Old forecast shares 366,199 451,056 451,056 451,056
New forecast shares 366,199 429,078 429,078 429,078 Old forecast EPS -3.5 -1.1 0.1 4.2 New forecast EPS -6.5 -4.9 -5.5 3.6
Source: CFE Research estimates
*Those who find these accounting decisions rather tedious might light to know that the University of Edinburgh Business School will host a lecture on Thursday entitled “Bean Counters: The Triumph of the Accountants and How They Broke Capitalism”.
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 7
Financials SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019
Valuation and risk
Our DCF valuation principally reflects the lower level of dilution less the new debt relative to
our initial forecast. We had originally assumed the issue of 84.9m shares whereas we are now
factoring in 62.8m but an additional £25m of debt. The overall impact is to reduce the
valuation slightly to 84p from 86p. The key risks to this valuation are execution risk at MeyGen
and Uskmouth and residual financing risk.
8 Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research
SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019 Financial model
Financial model
Income Statement (£'m)
Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Turbine and Engineering Services 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Consolidated Project Income 0.3 2.0 13.7 24.6 98.6 Grants 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Project development 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Group revenue 0.3 2.0 13.8 24.9 98.6
Turbine and Engineering Services -10.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6
Consolidated Project Income 0.0 -1.2 7.5 14.6 50.0 Grants 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 Project development -0.6 -16.7 -11.3 -11.5 -9.4
Adjusted operating profit -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9 Associates and other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted EBIT -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9
Finance Costs -1.6 -5.8 -16.4 -25.7 -18.4 Adjusted PBT -11.1 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reported PBT -11.1 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Reported tax 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusted tax rate 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Reported PAT -10.6 -24.3 -20.7 -22.9 21.5 Minority interests -0.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -5.9 Discontinued businesses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Earnings attributable to shareholders -10.8 -23.6 -21.2 -23.8 15.6
Shares in issue (m) 126.0 366.2 429.1 429.1 429.1 Average weighted capital (FD) (m) 126.0 366.2 429.1 429.1 429.1 Adjusted EPS (FD) (p) -8.6 -6.6 -4.9 -5.5 3.6
Reported EPS (FD) (p) -8.6 -6.5 -4.9 -5.5 3.6 DPS (payable) (p) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
Performance Metrics
Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue growth (%) 28.1 554.7 602.7 79.9 295.7 Adjusted EBITDA growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. 185.9 325.2
Adjusted EBIT growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1325.9 Adjusted PBT growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Adjusted EPS growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
DPS payable growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Dividend cover (x) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%) -3035.9 -554.0 34.8 55.3 59.4 Adjusted EBIT margin (%) -3163.5 -938.5 -31.1 11.2 40.5
Interest cover (x) 5.9 3.2 0.3 0.1 2.2 Net cash/(debt)/adjusted EBITDA (x) 3.5 1.9 -45.2 -23.3 -4.9 Net cash/(debt)/equity (%) -53.7 -17.0 -172.1 -243.5 -194.5
Net working capital/revenue (%) -1678.4 -400.0 -27.9 -15.5 -3.9
Operating cashflow conversion (%) 52.4 46.8 -18.5 492.1 146.7
Return on assets employed (%) -9.9 -11.9 -1.6 0.7 11.1 Return on equity (%) -17.5 -20.3 -16.4 -17.3 14.6
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Research 9
Financial model SIMEC Atlantis Energy | 01 April 2019
Cashflow Statement (£'m)
Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Operating profit -9.5 -18.5 -4.3 2.8 39.9
Depreciation and amortisation 0.4 7.6 9.1 11.0 18.6 Other non-cash movements 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in working capital 1.7 2.3 -4.0 0.0 0.0
Other cash movements 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating cashflow -5.0 -8.7 0.8 13.8 58.6 Taxation paid 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Finance costs -0.3 -5.1 -16.9 -26.6 -24.3 Investment income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capitalised intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital expenditure (net) -10.3 -3.3 -117.5 -120.3 0.0 Free cashflow -15.5 -16.5 -133.6 -133.1 34.3 Other investing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Acquisitions/disposals (net) 0.7 0.0 -91.8 0.0 0.0 Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 23.1 29.4 0.0 Shares issued/(repurchased) 3.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 0.0
Other financial 0.9 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Movement in net cash/(debt) -10.2 12.0 -197.3 -103.8 34.3
Net cash/(debt) b/fwd -22.1 -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4
Movement in net cash/(debt) -10.2 12.0 -197.3 -103.8 34.3 Net cash/(debt) c/fwd -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4 -287.1
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
Balance Sheet (£'m)
Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Intangible fixed assets 34.3 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.5
Tangible fixed assets 66.7 130.0 238.4 347.7 329.1 Net working capital -5.1 -7.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 Assets employed 95.9 155.6 268.0 377.4 358.7
Other assets/(liabilities) 0.2 0.2 92.0 92.0 92.0 Net cash/(debt) -32.3 -20.3 -217.6 -321.4 -287.1 Pension deficit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deferred tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Provisions -3.5 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 Net assets 60.2 119.5 126.4 132.0 147.6
Minority interests 8.3 8.1 31.2 60.6 60.6 Shareholders funds 68.6 127.6 157.6 192.6 208.2
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
Valuation Metrics
Year end December 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E EV / Revenue (x) 923.6 141.1 20.1 11.2 2.8 EV / Adjusted EBITDA (x) -30.4 -25.5 57.7 20.2 4.7
EV / Adjusted EBIT (x) -29.2 -15.0 -64.5 99.3 7.0 PER (x) -1.9 -2.5 -3.3 -3.0 4.5 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF yield (%) -25.7 -27.4 -221.2 -220.5 56.7 NAV/Share (p) 47.8 32.6 29.5 30.8 34.4
Source: Company data, CFE Research estimates
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Company Name Disclosure reference (see Key below)
SIMEC Atlantis Energy (SAE LN) H,I,J, &K
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Biffa Plc (BIFF LN) None
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EDF (Electricité de France) (EDF PA) None
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SIMEC (Private Company) None
Stanwell Corporation (Private Company) None
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Company Name Previous recommendation Date of change of recommendation
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Key
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