Timothy J. Smith Analytic Methodologist Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) tsmith@nmic.navy.mil 301-669-3781

SimBAT-Training: Simulation-Based Analysis & Training Program

Simulation

Seminars

Axis Force

Structure

(Order of

Battle)

H1

(Axis CoA 1):

________________

________________

________________

H2

(Axis CoA 2):

________________

________________

________________

H3

(Axis CoA 3):

________________

________________

________________

H4

(Axis CoA 4):

________________

________________

________________

Expected

Axis CoA:

(H )

Required OB Required OB Required OB Required OB ACTUAL OB

E1: Land:

Offensive

Defensive

E2: Naval:

Offensive

Defensive

E3: Air:

Offensive

Defensive

Totals

“The war with Japan had been enacted in the game rooms at the War College by so many people and in so many different ways that

nothing that happened during the war was a surprise—absolutely nothing except the kamikaze

tactics toward the end of the war. We had not visualized these.”

Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz

on Naval War College Wargaming prior

to the Second World War

Ahh…not quite…

SimBAT-T Program

Strategic Objectives

Simulation-Based Analysis & Training: Program Objectives 1. Organizational Learning; 2. Enhanced command morale &

cohesion; 3. Analyst & team CTSA training; 4. Development &

institutionalization of advanced analytic methodology

5. Support to production analysis.

Organizational Objectives

Promote Workforce Morale & Retention: – Build collaborative team spirit;

– Shared experience, bonding;

– Confidence in self-assertion;

– Expose juniors to the dynamism, complexity and fascination of warfare and intelligence;

– Wed them to the Navy & ONI.

Promote analytic culture change: – Focus on war & warfare vice peacetime routine;

– Conjoin creative to critical thinking;

– Embrace hypothetical reasoning;

– Think PREDICTIVELY;

– Ready the workforce and the organization for crises & war – the 2010(+) strategic environment.

SimBAT-Training (SimBAT-T) Standards & Objectives

•Provide ONI analysts (and managers) a unique military, naval and analytic training experience tightly coupled with ONI/IC analytic standards and analyst development & training program:

– Analytic Standards:

• ODNI ICD-203 ‘Analytic Standards’;

• ONI-2 Policy Memo 0012-05, ‘Analytic Tradecraft’;

• CTSA Doctrine: Critical Thinking & Structured Analysis.

– Training/Career Development:

• ONI, Kent School & JMITC curriculum (Cornerstone; Analysis 101; CTSA/ICAAP courses);

• Apply that curriculum directly to the military/warfare analytic problem set;

• Expand curriculum to embrace totality of ‘cognitive collaboration’.

SimBAT-Analysis

(SimBAT-A) Objectives Conduct Analytic Workshops in Areas of High-Profile/High-Stakes Analysis/Production:

– Same format; different topics: • Analytic production scenarios: near-term future and

potential crises & wars; – Deepen cross-stovepipe teaming, collaboration &

problem-domain mastery; – Explore alternative hypotheses concerning adversary

capabilities, intentions, options; – Explore alternative allied/neutral CoAs; – Generate hypotheses for deeper dives; – Lay scenario & simulation groundwork for simulation-

based production analysis.

SimBAT

Methodology

Synergy Between Two

Paradigms: IC & DoD

IC Methodology: DoD Methodology:

Creative & informal Rigorous critical

critical thinking; thinking;

Excellent for generating Excellent for formalizing &

alternative hypotheses testing hypotheses

SimBAT

Paradigm Complementarity

IC ‘Analytic Tradecraft’:

Qualitative Method (Inductive/Abductive Synthesis): • Collaborative teaming; • Facilitated brainstorming; • Critical Thinking & Structured Analysis/Structured Analytic

Techniques (CTSA/SATs); • Generation of alternative hypotheses: • Informal.

DoD Analytic Methodology:

Quantitative Method (Deductive Analysis): • Formal/quantitative modeling; • Simulation-based hypothesis testing.

SimBAT Spiral: Intelligence

Discovery & Team Learning

Intelligence

Discovery and

Warning

Facilitated

Brainstorming

Mathematical

Analysis of

Experimental

Results

Simulation-

Based

Experimentation

Computational

Modeling

Multiple

Alternative

Hypotheses

Definition of

Variables

CTSA/SATs

Interdisciplinary

Team Collaboration

SimBAT

Training

SimBAT-Training Curriculum

Pedagogical Philosophy

Experiential, active, discovery learning --

‘Lecture & Lab’ – – ‘Lecture’ is a series of SEMINARs; – ‘Socratic CTSA’: structured templates guiding

elicitation & student concept discovery; Lab:

– Simulation Lab: NWC-style manual wargame; – Empirical application of principles conveyed in the

abstract during: • Pre-lab seminar, and also during • IC/ONI schoolhouse lecture.

Pedagogical Inspiration: Dewey, Piaget

Learning Styles

• Abstract versus Concrete; • Conceptual versus Factual; • Theoretical versus Experiential; • Cognitive versus Emotional;

• Sensory: Visual, Auditory, Tactile Need for multi-dimensional, ‘all-sensory’

pedagogical model & approach.

Transports

Submarines

Destroyers

Cruisers

Battleships

Carrier Air

Aircraft Carriers

Navy

Fighters (TACAIR)

Bombers

Air Force

Artillery

Infantry

Armor

Army

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Operational

Missions

Multi-

Mission

Totals

Air WarfareNaval WarfareLand WarfareStrategic

Roles

Transports

Submarines

Destroyers

Cruisers

Battleships

Carrier Air

Aircraft Carriers

Navy

Fighters (TACAIR)

Bombers

Air Force

Artillery

Infantry

Armor

Army

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Strategic

ValueDefenseOffense

Operational

Missions

Multi-

Mission

Totals

Air WarfareNaval WarfareLand WarfareStrategic

Roles

Methodology: – Cognitive Reasoning Skills

(CTSA); – Military Command-Staff

Process: •C4ISR/OODA; •Intelligence Process (TPED); •Planning & Decision-Making;

Military Theory: – Principles of War; – Roles/Missions (Joint/Naval); – Doctrine/’Operational Art’;

Substance: Regional/Functional: – Military Forces: Land, Sea, Air; – Countries/Military Forces.

Multi-Dimensional

Learning Objectives

Ultimate Objective: War Preparedness

ONI 2010(+): Prepare the analytic workforce & the command for a dangerous decade:

– Fog, friction & surprise; – Contrary mental models; – Adversary gambits; – Decision-making under uncertainty & stress; – Limited analyst knowledge/experience:

• Make up the difference ‘in the lab’ --

Simulation: experience of crises and wars in peacetime:

– Many different problems, perspective, scenarios & contingencies;

– Experienced in a psychologically charged setting.

SimBAT Course

Structure & Format

Course Structure

Three-to-five day duration.

Elements: –Briefings –Analysis & Staff Exercises –Simulation –After-Action Review.

Naval War College Format

Three-cell structure: Red, Blue & White: – Trainee cells (Red/Blue):

• Command & control respective combatant forces;

• Situation awareness & command decision-making based on ISR collection/analysis;

– Trainer cell (White):

• Represent echelons above & below trainee cells: – NCA/TENCAP;

– Lower-echelon commanders;

• Adjudicate ISR & combat outcomes;

• Introduce ‘Fog & Friction’ via game ‘injects’.

Materials/Costs

Commercial Hobby Wargames: – Board, tabletop & computer games;

– Historical, contemporary & future scenarios;

– Mostly COTS; requiring only minimal adaptation;

Costs: – Negligible for COTS scenarios/wargames:

• Material costs virtually nil;

• Manhour costs minimal;

• In-house development;

• Some future contractor support poss desirable;

• USDI/DIA/ODNI sponsorship potentially available;

– Elaborate scenarios/scripting will incur real costs.

Curriculum Tier IA: Introduction to Military Intelligence &

Command (IMIC): courses exploring basic opera-tional-level joint/naval situation assessment and decision-making;

Tier IB: Introduction to Military Modeling & Simulation (IMMS): courses exploring the GMI implications of S&TI: how weapons systems charac-teristics & performance (C&P) can be analyzed and how they influence warfare;

Tier II: Military Intelligence Principles & Practices (MIPP): scenarios/ simulations add tactical-technical complexity;

Tier III: Analytic Support (ANSP): adds extensive complexity and lays the final groundwork for sim-based analysis;

Tier IV: Modeling & Simulation in Production Analysis (MSPA): both manual & computer gaming & computational M&S.

SimBAT-T Courses

The Mind’s Lie: Pre-SimBAT Module in ONI’s New-Hire Orientation Course

Cognitive Heuristics & Biases: preparatory exposure to sources of analytic error (Mercyhurst U game: The Mind’s Lie);

Biases Explored: – Confirmation – Representativeness (Stereotyping) – Projection (Mirror-Imaging) – Anchoring & (Insufficient) Adjustment – Actor/Observer (Fundamental Attribution

Error – Bias Blind

Spot

Kristan Wheaton: “Games

are great for teaching

without teaching.”

SimBAT-Cornerstone: Module in ONI’s New-Hire Orientation Course

SimBAT-C, Goeben Chase: relationship between ships’ characteristics & performance and roles & missions; mission planning; intel assessment(Goeben 1914);

SimBAT-C, WWI: in planning(Grand Fleet); SimBAT-C, WWII: in planning (War at Sea); SimBAT-C, Cold War: in planning (Hunt for Red

October).

TIER IA: Introduction to Military Intelligence & Command (IMIC)

IMIC-101: Introduction to Military Strategy: military forces, roles & missions, intelligence (capabilities & intentions assessment), net assessment, strategic decision-making, resource-allocation, and operations planning & execution (simulation wargame: Axis & Allies Europe);

IMIC-102: Introduction to Land Warfare and Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB): (Axis & Allies D-Day or Battle of the Bulge);

IMIC-103: Introduction to Naval Intelligence & Strategy: (Axis & Allies Pacific);

IMIC-104: Introduction to Naval Intelligence & Operations: (Axis & Allies Guadalcanal);

Intel & Command Problem Set

I. Briefings: –Warfare discipline; –Staff Process: Military

Decision-Making/IPB.

II. Force Structure Analysis Exercise: –Roles/missions: naval,

land, air

Orientation

Decision & Action

Observation

OODA

Loop

III. Staff Exercise 1. Strategic Net Assessment:

–Big-picture look at military fundamentals: • Geography; • Vital National Interests/Strategic Objectives; • Comparative Capabilities Assessment:

– Political; – Economic; – Military;

• Intro to Doctrinal Concepts: – Centers of Gravity; – Critical Vulnerabilities.

–Deliverable: Structured analytic worksheet (checklist).

Net

Assessment

Exercise:

Culling Causal

Fundamentals

out of the

mass of

detail…

III. Intel Ex: • Multiple

alternative hypotheses concerning adversary capabilities & intentions;

• Deliverable:

Structured analytic worksheet (checklist)

III. Staff Exercise:

• Strategy; • Operations;

• Deliverable: Five-para-graph OPORD (SMEAC format)

SMEAC:

• Situation; • Mission; • Enemy; • Admin &

Logistics; • Command

& Control

Lessons Learned V. After-Action Review:

– Red/Blue Cell reconstruction: • Perceptions & estimates (Observations &

Orientation) that shaped their Intel & Command

Decision-Making & Action;

– White Cell (Instructor) insights: • Principles of war and intelligence in practical

application.

– Format: • Multiple segments corresponding to phases in

the war/campaign; • Map-based review of the actual historical conflict; • Team review of simulated actions in

corresponding phases.

Historical Strategy

Gaming Club:

SimBAT

for Adolescents