siemens 2012 plm conference - ibm keynote by paul brody

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© 2012 IBM Corporation The Death of Product Design: How Continuous Connectivity, Social Networks and Big Data Are Killing Product Development Paul Brody Global Industry Leader, Electronics IBM March 2012

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The IBM keynote presentation at the Siemens PLM conference in Phoenix, Arizona. Presented by Paul Brody on 12 March 2012. This document contains a view of how I think product development strategy is changing in the electronics industry, particularly in my role as the electronics industry leader. These are my personal views and while they are presented in my capacity as an IBMer, this document shouldn't be considered an official viewpoint on the industry from IBM or an official statement of IBM's corporate strategy. The view expressed in this document is just one perspective among many that exist within such a large and diverse consulting & technology organization. The summary message of the document is that we are entering a new era of product development - one in which our old certainties are no longer reliable. In the past, we really focused on developing products - specific physical items. More recently, companies like IBM and others moved to develop systems and services - networks of products and solutions. Today, we are about to enter a new era - one where we design solutions targeted at business models. Thinking not just about performance metrics of a device or results of a business process in a system - but end-to-end business performance. This is very very difficult to accomplish, but if we can do so, we can reap enormous rewards, face few competitors, and generate enormous value for our clients.

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Page 1: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation

The Death of Product Design: How Continuous Connectivity, Social Networks and Big Data Are Killing Product Development

Paul BrodyGlobal Industry Leader, ElectronicsIBM

March 2012

Page 2: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation2 Confidential Material

Product design as we knew it is dying. The suspects: a trio of new technologies

Continuous Connectivity Social Networking Information Analytics

Page 3: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation3

One more analyst report. One more presentation. These mega-trends are starting to feel like clichés – and irrelevant ones at that

Confidential Material. Tomorrowland Image creative commons license, Flickr user Big Dump

Dire predictions of transformation are starting to feel a dated exhibit in TomorrowLand.

Page 4: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation4 Confidential Material

Despite the hype, interesting things are happening that have big implications for how we develop & use every kind of product

Connectivity

Social Networking

Analytics

SimplerFasterRadically Cheaper

DetailedAccurateCompletely Automatic

SmarterSelf-AwareSelf-Organizing

Page 5: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation5 Confidential Material

The most interesting things are happening at the intersections of these trends - innovation in a rich edge environment

Connectivity Social Networking

Analytics

Predict behavior and results

Change behavior and results

Page 6: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation6 Confidential Material

The result: old certainties about product development – what we do and how we do it, are going away

Life Cycles

Product Definition

User Experience

Clock, Blueprint, and Screen Images creative commons license, Flickr users

Continuously Shorter

More Complex

Static & Functional

Longer

Simpler

Dynamic & Consumerized

Page 7: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation7 Confidential Material

Longer product life cycles are a result of changing business models – both in the consumer space and in industrial

Extended life cycles enabled by retrofits and government procurement cycles.

High reliability is raising average fleet age and slowing some refresh cycles

Life cycles rising from 6 mos to 1 year due to lack of differentiation

Page 8: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation8 Confidential Material

Product complexity and variation are actually declining (but systems complexity is exploding)

• Snap together approach• Fewer parts, variants• Significantly reduced

options & customization

Simpler Products Complex Systems

• 10-1000X increase in network complexity

• Smart, self-organizing, self-optimizing networks

Heterogeneous Next Generation Mobile Networks

LTE HSPA

WiFI

Small Cells

Page 9: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation9 Confidential Material

User experience transformation – it means the end of RTFM

User Profiles Are Changing• Fewer operators = lower costs• Lower qualifications = lower

costs• Faster time to productivity =

lower costs• Modern UI = Better Recruiting

From Static to Dynamic:

• A/B Testing, Continuous Change & Refinement

• Gamification – to optimize user behavior

• Simplification – to drive lower operating costs

Influenced by the Facebook generation, enabled by continuous connectivity

Cockpit Crew Image creative commons license, Flickr users

Page 10: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation10 Confidential Material

What’s driving the end of all the traditional certainties in product development? Business Model Transformation

Life Cycles

Product Definition

User Experience

• Annuity Revenue Streams: with transition from products to services

• Reduced Risk: Fewer options and longer cycles means lower turn-over and component risk

• Increased Margins: Add new revenue streams on existing hardware & devices

• Reduced Operating Costs: thanks to labor arbitrage and user experience design

All these changes…… in the service of business model transformation

Page 11: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation11

So if we’re not focused on products anymore, what are we doing?

Confidential Material

Products Systems & Services Business Models

ATC, and Airline Hub Images creative commons license, Flickr users

Page 12: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation12 Confidential Material

The search of sustainable competitive differentiation is driving the changes in business model operations

SystemProduct Business Model

• Process Metrics• On-going services

relationship

• Speeds & Feeds• One-time sale

• Business Metrics• Deep strategic

partnership

• Solutions can be unbundled & value can migrate

• Can be replicated & commoditized

• Hardest to replicate, unbundle or replace

Metrics

Competition

Page 13: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation13

What does this really mean for a company like IBM as we think about engagement with our clients

Confidential Material

SystemProduct Business Model

• Integrated Point of Sale Solutions

• Intel-Based Servers • Partnerships for growth & profit

• Transaction cost• Retail staff productivity

• Price/performance benchmarks

• Total business profit and revenue growth

Offering

Metrics

• Limited• Intense • Very fewCompetition

• Medium• Low • HighClient Value

Airtel Shop Image creative commons license, Flickr users

Page 14: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation14 Confidential Material

To re-shape our business, we have to ask two fundamental questions. (Over and over again)

What business

are we in?

Who is our customer?

• Creating IT systems?• Offering business services?

• Solving business problems to make our clients successful?

• Consumers?• Enterprises?

• They were customers. Now we call them clients.

Page 15: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation15

When you re-think the fundamental questions you get surprising business models. Case in point: SpectraYield

Confidential Material

John Deere makes tractors for farmers

…Spectrayield makes data for financial markets

• Optimal planting time & location

• Device maintenance and performance

• Customer needs & product insight

• Yields, output conditions• Futures & derivatives

• Market size & marketing data for B2B services

• Shared ownership models & finance

Using data generated by connected Harvesters, Spectrayield customers can cover as much as 100% of their equipment leasing costs

Image: Flickr, CC License, Dustin and Jena

Page 16: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation16

When you change your business model, all your design and supply chain thinking has to change as well

Product– Printer– Toner– Service

Printer is designed for low-up front cost

Toner generates profit

Focus on preventing consumer from using 3rd party toner

Product is not designed for long service life

Confidential Material

Service– Price per page– Everything included

Device is networked to enable management

Designed for high reliability, long durability

Total cost per page to be minimized

Downtime=lost revenue

Xerox Image creative commons license, Flickr users

Page 17: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation17 Confidential Material

Where the rubber meets the road: Our view of HD Design: It’s deeply integrated, multi-dimensional and closed loop

Tightly Integrated

Multi-Dimensional

Closed Loop

• Think systems and solutions, not hardware and software separately

• More and more variables to consider beyond system performance

• Keep more and more responsibility for the product than ever before

All Delivered In HD

Page 18: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation18 Confidential Material

We’re partnered with Siemens because we share a vision of how the technology & process need to serve the business model

The IBM-Siemens Alliance Delivers Unique Joint Value

Leading Siemens PLM solutions

Leading industry and domain practice expertise

Strong partnership that underpins our commitment to deliver solutions to our joint customers to deliver:

Faster return on investment

Accelerated Innovation

Effective enterprise integration

Team Center / IBM “Blue Stack” Enablement: DB2, Power7, Websphere, Rational …

Siemens PLM Software Solution Offerings and Industry

Expertise

IBM Process Consulting,

SI & Industry

Insight(GBS)

IBM Enterprise Application and Industry Competency (SWG & STG)

JOINT

ACCOUNTS

JOIN

T

OFFERINGS

Page 19: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation19 Confidential Material

We’re re-wiring our organization and our business process to make the transition into the era of business model design

OrganizationPeople Systems

• Change org bias towards global integration

• Deep knowledge of our client business models

• Full life-cycle view• Leverage global

talent pool

• Created global CoCs for industry talent

• Integrated hardware & software into one group

• Created IBM Industry Academy

• Increased focus on industry alignment

• Leveraging big data in end-to-end design

• Deploying global design cloud

Page 20: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation20 Confidential Material

IBM’s Quality Early Warning system links design, manufacturing and field operations for early detection of problems

Suppliers Factory Field

Design Procurement Service

Using advanced analytics, we can find problems significantly faster than with traditional Statistical Process Controls

Page 21: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation21 Confidential Material

IBM’s design cloud enables anytime anywhere design, securely

Note: site examples, not complete location list

Bangalore

Boeblingen

AustinPOWER7

Yamato,Kyoto

Rochester

Poughkeepsie

Haifa

Yorktown

La Gaude

• IBM IT cost per developer reduced by ≈ 50%• Centralized servers achieved >90% utilization

24x7

• Power 7 development cycle shortened by six months (18 months versus 24 months)

• Two programs staffed out of 1.75 teams

Realizing key business value propositions

Page 22: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation22 Confidential Material

Change may be coming – but when? In some industries, talk about “Smarter Planet” and changing models seems pre-mature

Connectable vs. Connected

Data vs.Insight

Products vs.Solutions

Percentage of the installed based that can be connected to the Internet and the proportion that actually is being connected.

Percentage of the installed base where analytics is applied to usage and performance data to predict maintenance or other requirements.

Revenue from bundled solutions vs. discrete product, service sales.

30%

40%

30%

OtherConnectableConnected

100%Predictive

Reactive

80%

15%

5%

ProductsServicesSolutions

Source: Data based on interviews with client executives. Numbers under 5% mean “unknown and thought to be very small” rather than 0.

Case Example: Industrial Automation Company in 2011

Page 23: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation23

Pace of change is unpredictable and prone to sudden acceleration.

Confidential Material

Life Cycle & Installed Based

Don’t Drive Value

Adoption of New Technologies Is

Speeding Up

Events Can Overtake Strategy

• Long life cycles & relationships are profitable

• Moore’s law has been remarkably constant

• Sudden events can sweep aside entire industry strategies

• New orders & growth drive most of an enterprise value

• Pace of adoption of new technologies is increasing.

• Aircraft leasing & parts after 9/11

• Nuclear power after 3/11

Black Swans Image creative commons license, Flickr users

Page 24: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation24 Confidential Material

Shift happens.Usually when you feel on top of the world.

1993 1983

Page 25: Siemens 2012 PLM Conference - IBM Keynote by Paul Brody

© 2012 IBM Corporation25 Confidential Material

Thank You.Let’s Stay In Touch

Email • [email protected]

Linked In • Profile : http://www.linkedin.com/in/pbrody

Reading List • Delicious : http://www.delicious.com/prbrody

Twitter • @Pbrody• @IBM_Electronics