YEMEN T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T 5 APRIL to 25 APRIL, 2014

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula fighters gather to celebrate freed prisoners in this March 2014 video recently released on Islamist websites. The rally, held at an undisclosed location, is believed

to be one of the largest gatherings of the terrorist group’s leadership and fighters in its history.

SECURITY SITUATION OVERVIEW

Security Threat Assessment Suspected US drone strikes in Abyan and Shabwa led to over a hundred casualties in mid-April as both governments aggressively targeted AQAP. This campaign came shortly after a video showing top AQAP leaders meeting with hundreds of supporters and militants in Yemen sometime during March. The video demonstrates the level of support and resources AQAP enjoys in Yemen. Meanwhile, targeted killings and assassination attempts characterized Sana’a and much of the rest of Yemen during this reporting period. Attacks throughout the southeastern portion of the country are a continued demonstration of the challenges facing Hadramout as both terrorist elements and tribal unrest threaten to further de-stabilize a region once known for its merchant and business class. Violence in the governorate remains centred around Mukalla, Seiyun and the nearby gas/oil installations. Houthis caused some disruption in Amran; however, the they remained largely silent over the pas three weeks as they held conversations with government leaders. The threat is increasing in Sana’a to internationals as attacks in recent weeks near public areas, such as on the airport road, increasingly threaten bystander safety. This report assesses issues that have arisen from April 5-25, 2014. For a detailed record of security incidents occurring in Yemen, subscribers should refer to SicuroIMS Incident Mapping Platform.

Police arrested three AQAP suspects in downtown Sana’a during a house raid on April 11.

YEMEN

A high-ranking CID officer was kidnapped on April 12 off a main street in Tarim as he returned home.

A US drone strike on a suspected AQAP training centre killed at least 30 people on April 20 in Mahfd, Abyan.

Five soldiers died in an April 8 assault on a military outpost in Burum by suspected AQAP militants.

Fighting spiked between smugglers and border guards in April near Jizan-Hajja and Asir-Sa’adah.

Houthi militants attacked a security checkpoint at the Western entrance of Amran on April 9.

A Russian oil worker evaded a kidnapping attempt on April 24 in the Hadda district of Sana’a.

On April 5, Unidentified assailants kidnapped an intelligence officer, as he left a hotel in Taiz City.

SECURITY SITUATION REGIONAL OVERVIEW

YEMEN

SABA REGION Trend: • A major drone strike in Baiyda killed over a dozen and wounded

several civilians. This attack was part of a larger campaign during April 19 weekend by the US and Yemeni military against AQAP.

• An Uzbek doctor in Mareb was briefly kidnapped from a hospital in the city. His quick release (about 10 days) did not provide any indication of the kidnappers’ motive.

• Attacks on power lines dropped significantly this reporting period.

AZAL REGION Trend: • Assassinations spiked in Sana’a this period, particularly near the

airport. Similar to previous attacks, gunmen on motorcycles launched most of the attacks, some who were dressed in military uniforms. Most targets have been military or police officials.

• The attempted kidnapping of the oil expert in Sana’a is at least the third incident where Russian speakers have been targeted in the last year.

ADEN REGION Trend: • Drone and airstrikes in Abyan led to the death of at least 60

suspected AQAP militants over the April 19-20 weekend. This is one of the largest campaigns launched by the US government and Yemeni military. Yemeni and US officials are waiting on DNA comparisons from the bodies to determine which, if any, senior AQAP leaders might have been killed in the strikes.

HADRAMOUT REGION Trend: • Frequent attacks against military checkpoints in Hadramout

occurred this period. Most analysts attribute the attacks to the growing AQAP presence.

• In addition to AQAP’s presence, the tribal federation is currently battling the government for greater regional autonomy, particularly regarding security issues. This has also led to targeting of oil facilities.

TEHAMA REGION Trend: • Clashes in the border region between Hajja and Jizan illustrate the problematic history between

Saudi Arabian and Yemen trying to manage the 1,800 kilometre border. The cross-border movement of illegals and the prevalence of smugglers has soured and already weak relationship between the two countries as Saudi Arabia blames Yemen for their inability to stop trafficking and the movement of terrorists due to inadequate border protections.

JANAD REGION Trend: • A kidnapping attempt in Taiz of an intelligence officer and a skirmish between Houthis and tribal

fighters in Ibb represent little change in the southwestern region. Taiz has had issues over the past year with kidnapping of a few local officials; however, the tribesmen responsible used the incidents as a means of negotiation with the government or another tribe over a specific issue.

SECURITY SITUATION SECURITY SITUATION BY INCIDENT

YEMEN

I n c i d e n t s f r o m A p r i l 5 – 2 5 , 2 0 1 4

1

2

3

4

5

Notes 1. The number of IED attacks in Yemen on a weekly

basis is significant and many are located in areas such as Sana’a and Aden. They can be deadly and have caused injuries; however, they are often used by militants in assassination attempts targeting specific Yemeni officials. The threat of an IED attack to non-Yemeni military officials is low. Some have been found around the major cities; however, the are poorly constructed and often quickly dismantled by security forces. The threat from an IED attack is “wrong place, wrong time”.

1. Armed clashes between Houthis and Islah-

supported tribesmen continues throughout the western part of the country, particularly Sana’a. Clashes between government forces and tribesmen in Hadramout are also growing.

1. Kidnapping remains the primary threat to expats

living in Yemen. They are used by tribes as a source of revenue as past hostages have commanded huge ransoms. This cottage industry is wrecking havoc in Sana’a as internationals are regularly targeted while entering and exiting buildings.

1. Targeting killings have been a problem over the last

year as spoilers try to disrupt the transition process through devastating the security sector and military. While AQAP is often blamed, former regime figures are also suspected to be behind many of the attacks.

1. Drone strikes picked up this weekend, but

predominately in Shabwa, Abyan and Baiyda.

SECURITY SITUATION TEHAMA REGION (HODEIDAH, HAJJA, MAHWET AND RAYMA)

YEMEN

Saudi border guards came under fire on April 14 near the Jizan province’s border with Yemen. Smuggling along the 1,8000 mile border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is a major security challenge for both countries. Following the fighting with smugglers, the border guards also arrested a woman and two children along with the two smugglers as they tried to cross into Yemen. This followed similar clashes earlier in the week when two border guards were killed by smugglers in the Asir province.

Houthi militants injured four students at a Quaran school in Mahwet on April 15. The militants arrived in a 12-vehicle convoy on Wednesday and broke into the school with light weapons.

JANAD REGION (TAIZ AND IBB)

On April 5, Unidentified assailants kidnapped Lieutenant Zayed Nasser, an intelligence officer, as he left a hotel in downtown Taiz. The kidnappers also stabbed Lt. Nasser during the successful attempt.

Houthi fighters and Sherari tribesmen clashed in the Alamo area of Ibb on April 15.

SECURITY SITUATION AZAL REGION (SAADA, AMRAN, SANA’A AND DHAMAR)

YEMEN

Police arrested three AQAP suspects in downtown Sana’a during a house raid on April 11. The leaders of the three suspects is believed to be a key recruiter for the terrorist network having sent dozens of Yemeni youth to the southeastern provinces where AQAP maintains its camps.

Gunmen riding a motorcycle killed another police officer on April 11 in Sana’a along the airport thoroughfare. The police officer is believed to have been stationed at the Bani Hawat precinct.

On April 9, Houthi militants attacked a security checkpoint near the western entrance to Amran. Prior to the assault, the Houthis hijacked two military vehicles. At least seven Houthi fighters, including Abu Yosef Al-Dalhi, died in the attack. Despite the casualties, the Houthis gained control of the checkpoint.

Gunmen attacked Ismail al-Wazir the chair of the Al-Haq Party’s Shura Council, while he drove by Sana’aa University Square on April 7. Gunmen killed his two guards and wounded al-Qazir.

Najeeb Ali Al-Qayeel, a teacher, and his two children were kidnapped on April 7 by bandits from the Al Khawlan district. The motivations behind the kidnapping are unknown.

Colonel Abdullah Mofadhl and his son were injured in a roadside bomb attack on April 6 while passing the Higher Institute for the Judiciary. The failed assassination attempt led nearby gunmen to open fire on the car.

On April 24, a Russian oil sector expert evaded a kidnapping attempt in the Hadda district of Sana’a, an upscale area of the capital home to many internationals. The Russian fought off his attackers outside a barber shop killing two of his assailants with a pistol he had on his person.

Brigadier General Abdarrab al-Shadadi, commander of the 312th Armoured Brigade, survived an assassination attempt on April 24 in the Hezyez district of Sana’a. Two of the commander’s escorts died and another two wounded from the gunmen’s fire.

Gunmen on a motorcycle shot and killed Colonel Abdul Razak al-Jabali on April 22 as he walked along the airport road. This is the second killing near the airport road in the last ten days.

In the al-Geraf area of downtown Sana’a on April 21 gunmen fired on the vehicle of Colonel Mohammed Al-Najdi and Major Mohammed Oraij, two intelligence officers. Both died in the attack.

SECURITY SITUATION ADEN REGION (LAHJ, DHALAE, ADEN AND ABYAN)

YEMEN

In connection with the AQAP attack on the Fourth Brigade headquarters in Aden, police raided a house in the city on April 11, nine days after the attack. Police discovered bomb making materials and explosives in the house. They arrested the occupants of the house for suspected involvement with the April 2 attack.

On April 20, a US drone strike hit a suspected AQAP training centre in Mahfd, Abyan killing at least thirty militants and wounding at least three others. Two of the dead are reportedly AQAP commanders. On the same day and in a nearby area, helicopter gunships from the Yemeni military attacked suspected terrorist targets, particularly in the Azzan region of nearby Shabwa.

A roadside IED exploded on April 9 killing two soldiers along the main road in Lawdar, Abyan. The attack bears the hallmarks of AQAP.

Protesters in Abyan demanded on April 6 that the provincial governor immediately release reconstruction funds and then resign or face widespread civil disobedience.

Gunmen shot and killed Mohamed Saleh Naji, a CID officer in Lahj, on April 13 as he headed home.

Security forces clashed with local residents in the Crater area of Aden on April 22 leading to the death of one person.

A bomb exploded on April 22 killing four people inside a restaurant near Zinjibar, Abyan.

SECURITY SITUATION SHEBA REGION (JAWF, MAREB AND BAIYDA)

YEMEN

Gunmen in the Al-Haikle area of Baiyda attacked security forces patrolling in the area belonging to to the 26th Brigade. One soldier died and six others were wounded in the attack.

Gunmen kidnapped an Uzbek doctor from a hospital in Mareb on April 13. Security forces quickly sealed off the area in an attempt to prevent the kidnappers from leaving the city. Mediators secured the release of the doctor the following Saturday (April 19). It is unclear whether the government paid a ransom; however, this type of kidnapping is common in Yemen. Tribes often kidnap people as a means of negotiation with the government over a specific issue.

Gunmen shot and killed Hussain Dayan, the deputy governor of Baiyda, on April 15 outside his home in the provincial capital.

Al Fuqaiman tribesmen in Jawf kidnapped four Central Bank employees on April 17 in an attempt to leverage local authorities over a resolution to a local dispute.

A suspected US drone strike hit a convoy in the Hazmiah area of Baiydah on April 19. The drone missile hit a convoy carrying sixteen suspected militants. At least five civilians in nearby vehicles died as a result of the drone strike.

SECURITY SITUATION HADRAMOUT REGION (HADRAMOUT, SHABWA AND MAHRA)

YEMEN

Armed clashes between suspected AQAP militants and soldiers at a military checkpoint in Burum on April 8 led to the death of at least five soldiers and the kidnapping of several more. Similar to other checkpoint attacks in the region over the past few months, the assailants used RPGs to attack the checkpoint in the dawn raid. Reports suggest the commander of the checkpoint died in the attack.

An IED attack on April 15 in Seiyun, Hadramout reportedly injured one soldier and several militants. Near the Dor Huta area of Seiyun, the IED exploded when a military convoy carrying Colonel Khalid Al-Ansi passed through the area. Heavy clashes followed the apparent assassination attempt; however, the colonel escaped unharmed.

Suspected AQAP gunmen raided a security outpost in Shibam on April 24. Sources indicate that the attackers fired RGPs at the police checkpoint. Two police officers died in the raid.

AQAP militants seized a hospital in Azzan, Shabwa on April 20 following numerous airstrikes in the area. The militants reportedly arrived at the hospital with doctors to treat the wounded from the weekend’s airstrikes, which let to an estimated death toll of some 70 people.

Suspected AQAP militants and the Yemen military clashed near the al-Dees area of Mukalla on April 21. One soldier died and several wounded. This comes as residents protest against the arrest of a local young man, who is being charged with conspiring with AQAP.

One soldier died when suspected AQAP militants attacked a military checkpoint east of Ash Shihr on April 16.

A drone strike in the Usylan area of Shabwa killed at least four militants on April 20. Some sources are suggesting that AQAP’s chief bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, died in the strike.

CONCLUSION CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

YEMEN

The video of AQAP leaders in Yemen posted on a Islamist website caught many intelligence services off-guard as the gathering documented in the footage represents perhaps one of the largest meetings of the organization in several years. Dated in March, the video offers a rare glimpse into the terrorist organization’s reach and depth in Yemen. The Yemeni and US governments’ unrelenting air strikes followed by a weekend of multiple drone strikes in the south-central part of Yemen is a direct effect of the video’s publication. As a result of the mass casualties caused by the drone strikes, AQAP launched numerous assaults and kidnapping attempts across the country further illustrating its reach and operational capability. While reports are swirling about what leaders might have been killed in the drone strikes, it is apparent that the Yemeni military landed helicopters in several target areas following the attack to collect suspected leaders’ bodies. Currently, the government—likely with US assistance—is conducting DNA tests to verify the identity. AQAP’s chief bomb maker, suspected to have died in one of the attacks, would be considered a big prize by terrorism analysts. The severe fuel and petrol shortage throughout Yemen, particularly Sana’a, is much worse than in November 2013 when similar conditions limited supplies. Almost daily, lines are reported around the block and sources have witnessed fighting at petrol stations over the limited quantities that are available. As the springtime approaches, fuel will be in greater demand causing greater shocks to market prices. In order to ensure adequate supplies of fuel, particularly to maintain diesel levels for generators and petrol levels for cars, organizations and individuals should begin stockpiling fuel and seeking out alternative sources. Cars should maintain full tanks as much as possible for security reasons. The foiled kidnapping of the Russian oil company employee by no less than himself is an interesting case because it is at least the third instance of a Russian speaker being targeted for kidnapping in the last year. Not long before this incident, the brief captivity of the Uzbek doctor without an apparent motive represented a second incident. This follows the assassination of two Belarusians military advisors in November 26 who were leaving their hotel in downtown Sana’a. An additional two Eastern Europeans (a Ukrainian and a Bulgarian) were involved in kidnapping attempts in 2013. In most instances, the attempts/successes occurred during the day outside popular areas, grocery stores, hotels and restaurants. Clearly, these incidents were avoidable and preventable, but it raises the point that Eastern Europeans/Russian speakers are being targeted as frequently, if not more, than Westerners. Kidnappings remain the number one threat to individuals in Sana’a and precautions should be taken at all times. Labour Day is approaching on May 1, 2014, which is a national holiday and most institutions will be closed. Labour Day is not considered a significant holiday in the country, but it is considered a official holiday. Organizations should be preparing for the upcoming Unity Day on May 22, which is another holiday and usually involves large rallies/protests throughout the country. Further, Ramadan will begin at the end of June and internationals should strongly consider making plans to leave Yemen during this period. Last Ramadan saw significant violence and criminality throughout the country. Kidnapping attempts and suspicious vehicles throughout Sana’a spiked during this period in 2013.

YEMEN 5 APRIL– 25 APRIL, 2014 T H R E A T A S S E S S M E N T

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