shortcut to parametric estimation via web trnsport charles engelke info tech, inc
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Shortcut to Parametric EstimationShortcut to Parametric Estimationvia Web Trnsvia Web Trns•port•port
Charles Engelke
Info Tech, Inc.
![Page 2: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The Parametric ParadoxThe Parametric Paradox
• Parametric estimation is one of the most important and desired estimation techniques
• That very few people use
![Page 3: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why Don’t More People Use Why Don’t More People Use Parametric Estimation?Parametric Estimation?
• Because it requires powerful software?– No, Trns•port CES is available
![Page 4: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What Most CES Users SeeWhat Most CES Users See
![Page 5: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Real ObstaclesThe Real Obstacles
• Requires lots of resources and information– The scope and breadth of issues is very large– Methodology is complex, requires a lot of training
and effort to master– A lot of fundamental data must be gathered and
managed before the first estimate can be built
• These are the big issues for CES users
![Page 6: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Parametric Estimation is More Parametric Estimation is More Varied than Detail EstimationVaried than Detail Estimation
• The models for estimating an item price are the same regardless of the item
• Cost-based– Determine crew, productivity, materials
consumption, overhead, margin– Plug in current costs and derive unit price
• Bid-based– Calculate weighted average prices or fit to
standard formula via regression– Apply results to predict new item bid prices
![Page 7: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Parametric Estimation Models Parametric Estimation Models Vary for Different Job TypesVary for Different Job Types
• Steps needed1. Develop conceptual model
2. Define the model as a “template” for new jobs of that type
3. Define how bid items are related to cost drivers
4. Statistically analyze historical prices
5. Enter model parameters and calculate
• Only the last two steps apply to detailed estimation with CES or Estimator
![Page 8: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The Real CES ChallengesThe Real CES Challenges
• New CES users start with a blank screen for the parametric model templates
• Can’t develop estimates until all those preliminary definitions are done
• It’s hard to see how to specify the abstract model so it can be used for real jobs
• And there is always other, more urgent, work to be done
![Page 9: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The Fundamental DilemmaThe Fundamental Dilemma
• CES is extremely flexible– Any parametric model that can be reduced
to formulas of any kind can be defined in it
• But the first steps are extremely steep– And it’s hard to understand these steps
without experience using other models
• The necessary flexibility and power in the system lead to barriers to entry
![Page 10: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Simplify, simplify.Simplify, simplify.
• Parametric estimation is very complex and difficult in general
• So forget the general problem for now– All of CES will still be there to handle it
when we come back!
• Pick one type of problem, and create an “express lane” for it in CES– Make a shortcut to parametric estimation
![Page 11: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Shortcut(s)The Shortcut(s)
• Choose specific types of estimates to support– Asphalt resurfacing, perhaps another
• Pick one estimation model per type– That is, determine what parameters will be
considered, and how estimates will be derived from them
• Provide reasonable defaults for everything– So estimators can provide minimal data and get
adequate results, or more data for better results– Use defaults to simplify installation, too
![Page 12: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Example: ResurfacingExample: Resurfacing
• Minimal parameters– Length, lanes, lane width, depth
• Optional parameters– Location, urban/rural, maintenance of
traffic, mobilization, milling, drainage, earthwork
• Underlying data for calculations– Acquire cost data, and classify and
analyze historical data
![Page 13: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Shortcut Work Flow (for the user)Shortcut Work Flow (for the user)
• User enters required parameters– An estimate total is provided
• User modifies defaulted parameters– The estimate is adjusted automatically
• User wants to change basic estimation model– Must leave the shortcut and continue work
in full CES instead
![Page 14: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Shortcut Work (for the agency)Shortcut Work (for the agency)
• Install shortcut, accept default data– Get reasonable estimates, but not based on
anything specific to your agency
• Classify basic historical data– Define a few item groups and conversions– Run analysis models to feed CES
• Develop your own models– Acquire cost driver data specific to your issues– Again, must leave shortcut for full CES at some
point
![Page 15: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Challenges for a ShortcutChallenges for a Shortcut
• We don’t want to add it to today’s CES client– That’s already big enough– Trying to make something simple by adding to a
complex product isn’t likely to succeed
• We don’t want to create a new application– Those are expensive to build and maintain– It might be the first of many specialized
applications, which would be hard to manage
• What options are left?
![Page 16: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Enter Web Trns•portEnter Web Trns•port
• An initiative to replace use of the Trns•port Windows clients for some functions– More ambitious than Trns•port Intranet– Not just a supplement to client-server
• Web functions are inherently very loosely coupled– So specialized functions can be developed
independently of others– Within a single manageable framework
![Page 17: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Web Trns•port is Web Trns•port is notnot a New a New ApplicationApplication
Relatio n alDatab ase
O b jectDatab ase
Web Server
A pplicationS erver
Web Bro wser
Clien t
Only the blue pieces are new
![Page 18: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Strategic Direction to WebStrategic Direction to Web
• Lots of reasons for Web Trns•port– (I’ll gladly harangue anyone who’ll listen)– Part of strategic plan for several years
• So Info Tech proposed a project to create needed infrastructure– And the TTF said “what’s in it for the users?”– Every project should provide direct user value
• Project redirected to start Web Trns•port to solve important user problems– Starting with parametric estimation shortcuts
![Page 19: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Project GoalsProject Goals
• Provide a useful function almost all licensees will want to deploy– Parametric estimation shortcuts
• Be easy for licensees to implement quickly– We don’t want to deliver “shelfware”
• Ready for people to use almost immediately– Without a lot of configuration, data management,
or end-user training
• Create architectural foundation for Web Trns•port while delivering immediate value
![Page 20: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Project in a NutshellProject in a Nutshell
• Performing this fiscal year– Late start due to redirection of goals
• Using “agile” methodologies– Replaces traditional lifecycle (with several
review and approval stages) with constant communications
– Product builds weekly or more frequently, available instantly to TRT
• Delivery Q3 2004
![Page 21: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
What We’re Shooting ForWhat We’re Shooting For
![Page 22: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
IssuesIssues
• Flexibility versus simplicity tradeoffs– Where do we draw the line?
• Integration with agency data– Can we make matching items to cost groups as
simple as the rest?
• Authorized users– Same as for similar CES screens, or a broader
group?– Allow “guest” estimators? Planners could create
rough estimates, save in CES for estimators to develop more fully later.
![Page 23: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
What Can You Do?What Can You Do?
• Communicate with the TRT– “Agile” methodologies mean more
functional decisions happen during the project
• Discuss what you want– Chat about it on the TEA mailing list
• Get your system managers ready!– A successful project will result in
something quick to install and deploy
![Page 24: Shortcut to Parametric Estimation via Web Trnsport Charles Engelke Info Tech, Inc](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062515/56649c775503460f9492ba3b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Shortcut to Parametric EstimationShortcut to Parametric Estimationvia Web Trnsvia Web Trns•port•port
Charles Engelke
Info Tech, Inc.