short-term statistics eurostat d3 the introduction of base year 2005 and nace rev. 2 in sts oecd...

Eurostat D3Eurostat D3

SHORT-TERM STATISTICS

The introduction of base year The introduction of base year 2005 and NACE Rev. 2 in STS2005 and NACE Rev. 2 in STS

OECD Short-term Economic Statistics OECD Short-term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP) 25-27 June Working Party (STESWP) 25-27 June

20072007

Report on progress since the 2006 Report on progress since the 2006 STESWP meetingSTESWP meeting

Eurostat D3Eurostat D3 STS

Introduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STSIntroduction base year 2005 & NACE 2 in STS

STS WG Dec-07: mandate to TFSTS WG Dec-07: mandate to TF

Task Force “STS Backcasting”Task Force “STS Backcasting”• 1st meeting 26 April 20071st meeting 26 April 2007

• participants from 10 Member States and participants from 10 Member States and OECDOECD

• discussion on estimation of 2005 weights discussion on estimation of 2005 weights according to new NACE and backcastingaccording to new NACE and backcasting


Main TF conclusionsMain TF conclusions

• Weights 2005 according to NACE 2Weights 2005 according to NACE 2 Problems appear to be more or less solvable (most to Problems appear to be more or less solvable (most to

rely on dual coded register)rely on dual coded register)

Provisional weights in time (June 2008)Provisional weights in time (June 2008)

Some countries may wish to revise weights around 2010Some countries may wish to revise weights around 2010

• Backcasting of STS time seriesBackcasting of STS time series Countries less advanced – priority so far on rebasingCountries less advanced – priority so far on rebasing

More attention needed in 2008More attention needed in 2008



Main TF conclusions (cont.)Main TF conclusions (cont.)• Countries who have not started yet their Countries who have not started yet their

preparations are urged to do so!preparations are urged to do so!

• STS statisticians should co-ordinate themselves STS statisticians should co-ordinate themselves with experts from related domains and from with experts from related domains and from horizontal groups (Structure Statistics, registers, horizontal groups (Structure Statistics, registers, IT, etc.)IT, etc.)

Gaining experience from non EU countries Gaining experience from non EU countries could helpcould help• STESWP group the main opportunity for thisSTESWP group the main opportunity for this



• Choice of backcasting method:Choice of backcasting method: Macro Macro versusversus micro method? micro method?

Criteria: quality, resources (time, skills, access Criteria: quality, resources (time, skills, access to data, financial)to data, financial)

Little use of benchmarking/interpolation Little use of benchmarking/interpolation techniquestechniques

Macro Macro andand micro method! micro method!

Backcasting issues to resolveBackcasting issues to resolve


• Length of the backcast time seriesLength of the backcast time series Users need to maintain current length of time Users need to maintain current length of time

seriesseries

Target time horizon minimum 2000 for Target time horizon minimum 2000 for backcasting STSbackcasting STS

Longer backcasting for higher level aggregatesLonger backcasting for higher level aggregates

Trade-off between length and quality: which Trade-off between length and quality: which approach?approach?

NSO are best placed to carry out this job!NSO are best placed to carry out this job!



Past base years & linking of seriesPast base years & linking of series• Most will calculate conversion coefficients for 2005 onlyMost will calculate conversion coefficients for 2005 only

• Can the introduction of past base years’ weights improve Can the introduction of past base years’ weights improve the quality of our backcasting results?the quality of our backcasting results?

• Is linking an issue?Is linking an issue?

Gaps in data availability Gaps in data availability • Some (few) activities were not or not sufficiently covered Some (few) activities were not or not sufficiently covered

under the old classificationunder the old classification

Need to identify cases, assess importance, develop Need to identify cases, assess importance, develop solutions!solutions!



Next stepsNext steps

• Eurostat manual on backcasting to Eurostat manual on backcasting to become available soonbecome available soon

• 2nd meeting of TF “STS Backcasting”2nd meeting of TF “STS Backcasting”in October 2007in October 2007

focus on backcastingfocus on backcasting

TF work continues through 2008TF work continues through 2008

• STS WG in December 2007STS WG in December 2007 draft Commission Regulation on backcastingdraft Commission Regulation on backcasting



• STESWP members experience with deriving STESWP members experience with deriving concordance matrices from dual coded registers?concordance matrices from dual coded registers?• Comparability with those generated from micro data?Comparability with those generated from micro data?

• Problem areas / biases that are likely to occur?Problem areas / biases that are likely to occur?

• Reweighting past base years with concordance matrix Reweighting past base years with concordance matrix and linkingand linking

• How to identify weak points in the concordance matrix How to identify weak points in the concordance matrix and adjust these back in time and adjust these back in time

• Which points in time would adjustments be made (e.g. at Which points in time would adjustments be made (e.g. at base years?)base years?)

• What does this imply for linking What does this imply for linking

• Do STESWP members have experience in producing longer Do STESWP members have experience in producing longer time series for higher level aggregates?time series for higher level aggregates?• What level of aggregates are produced (e.g. 1 digit, 2 digit)What level of aggregates are produced (e.g. 1 digit, 2 digit)

Issues for discussionIssues for discussion

short-term statistics eurostat d3 the introduction of base year 2005 and nace rev. 2 in sts oecd...

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